Game 139, Athletics at Mariners
King Felix vs. AJ Griffin, 7:10pm
The A’s arrive at a crucial time in their season, as their out-of-nowhere playoff chances ha been weakened recently by a three-game sweep by the Angels and the loss (due to a horrific injury) of their best starting pitcher*. According to Baseball Prospectus’ playoff odds report, their playoff chances have dropped over 15% in the past week, and have dropped below 50%. Things aren’t quite as dire at CoolStandings, but the combination of the Rangers righting their ship and Orioles doing whatever it is that the Orioles are doing means first that the A’s don’t have much of a shot at the division and second that the Wild Card race is going to be tough. They’ve got a tough schedule to play the rest of the way, and their wild-card rivals have advantages like “playing in the AL Central” or “money” or both. But the A’s remain, somehow, in a good position. How’d they get to this point?
In a recent interview, A’s Assistant GM David Forst talked about his club’s 2012 season as being a “perfect storm.” This makes those of us who saw them as a near-certain last-place team feel better, but it’s quite remarkable the degree to which the A’s have had a signature success to point to from basically every segment of the enterprise. The trades of Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill signalled a rebuild, but their pro scouting department was able to find good value in players like Tommy Milone and Jarrod Parker. A trade that received a bit less attention – closer Andrew Bailey and 4th OF Ryan Sweeney for Josh Reddick and prospects – may have been the most important. An offense that looked to require a career year from Coco Crisp to avoid 2010 Mariners-level impotence now has a guy who’s put up 4.2 WAR and is closing in on 30 HRs. To back that up, the amateur scouting department came out of nowhere to give Cuban Yoenis Cespedes an unthinkable-for-the-A’s amount of money, and have watched as the OF has put up a .280/.348/.491 line in a tough place to hit. The A’s offense is by no means good, but without these two guys – both of whom weren’t on the payroll in early 2012 – the A’s really may have been as bad as recent M’s offenses. Finally, a player development system (that has watched Chris Carter, Michael Taylor, Landon Powell, Josh Donaldson, Adrian Cardenas, Michael Choice, Grant Green and more stall out) helped bring two unknown, late-round draft picks to the major leagues: Dan Straily and tonight’s starter, AJ Griffin.
Griffin was drafted in the 13th round of the 2010 draft, out of the University of San Diego. He signed quickly enough to get several appearances that year in the low-minors as a reliever. Moved to the rotation in 2011, he laid waste to multiple levels before tiring in AA. This year, the Texas League proved to be no challenge, and after ten good starts in AAA, he was up with the A’s, where he now stands with a 4-0 record and a gaudy RA. If it wasn’t for Dan Straily’s story – a 24th rounder who led the minors in strikeouts before moving up to Oakland – Griffin may be the best “who is that?” prospect story of the year.
So did he gain velocity in pro ball? Does he throw 95 with movement? Well, no. Like Tigers prospect Drew Smyly, Griffin gets the most out of a slightly overhand delivery that gives his 89-91mph fastball a lot of vertical movement. His FB simply doesn’t drop the way others do, and hitters seem to have had problems with that, and so like a lot of similar pitchers, from Smyly this year to Josh Collmenter last year, Griffin’s transition to the majors has been pretty smooth. He also has a slider/cutter/slutter pitch that he throws to righties, a change-up that he reserves almost exclusively for lefties, and a big, slow curve-ball that he uses as a put-away pitch when he’s ahead. He gets a good number of grounders with his breaking/offspeed stuff, but his fastball’s a fly-ball pitch. On the other hand, it also generates an above-average number of pop-ups. Watching him face Brendan Ryan might be a bit frustrating.
The combination of his fastball and what I can only guess is a very good change-up is his interesting platoon splits. So far in the majors, lefties have only a .209 wOBA against him, compared to righties .237 (his BABIP so far has been absurdly low). The sample’s small, of course, but it essentially matches what he did in AAA – he dominated lefties and battled righties to a draw. In fairness, his splits were more traditional in 2011, but his career numbers are still slightly better against lefties. If there was one pitcher where you wouldn’t use a strict platoon approach when facing, that would be Scott Feldman. But if you had a SECOND choice, it might be Griffin. Don’t be afraid to use Casper Wells, M’s!
Felix may have extra motivation after his last, frustrating inning against the Angels. He’s familiar with the A’s, and he’s in his home park, so here’s hoping for a return to royal form. The line-up behind him includes Luis Jimenez, who’s making his first MLB start after 13 years in everything from the affiliated minors, to Japan, to a semi-pro league near his home town. Congratulations, Luis.
1: Ackley
2: Gutierrez
3: Seager
4: Jaso (C)
5: Saunders
6: Smoak
7: Thames
8: Jimenez (DH)
9: Ryan
SP: King Felix
That’s a pretty lefty-heavy line-up right there, though it’s good to see Gutierrez back in the line-up for however long he’s able to go.
*: Get well soon, Brandon McCarthy – the funniest athlete on twitter, and one of the most engaging, thoughtful and insightful pitchers in baseball.
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90 Responses to “Game 139, Athletics at Mariners”
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Hey, Luis! Good to see you! Um… if you happened to “accidentally” trip and knock Smoak down or something where he was just a little unable to play, no one would hold it against you.
I don’t know about anyone else, but I’d love to see Carp or Liddi at first base. The current choice is beyond annoying. At this point, the only reason for starting him I can come up with, is that maybe Jack is hoping (desperately) that he’ll get hot, so they can throw him into a package this off-season for a better player.
Yeah seriously, trying to explain why Smoak is an every day starter is hopeless. He shouldn’t be an every day starter in any case, but at least earlier in the year he was the only option most times. At this point, with the expanded rosters, there is simply no excuse to be playing the guy every day.
Brandon McCarthy’s injury makes me cringe. I really hope he not only comes back, but comes back in full form ASAP. I know they are division rivals, but I want the A’s to win it all this year, as long as the M’s are out of it, that is.
I didn’t see McCarthy’s injury (and don’t want to), but I read about it – how horrific. Hopefully he’ll make it back by next spring; but it doesn’t seem like pitching again this year is likely.
For some reason, I still have a hard time getting interested in the A’s.
How come the A’s get Cespedes, and we get Peguero?
Well, that ball bounced around Thames.
how many runs has thames cost with his D since he got here…..
decent bat, but he has gotta be worse than peguero, carp, or robinson at defense
That was a tough play, though he was too close to it.
Carp is not an outfielder, or shouldn’t be.
and Peguero shouldn’t be in the majors.
I’d take Thames in the OF over either of them.
Good to see a hit to lead off the inning
And a hitter who will take a walk!
Jimenez took a curveball low and in. He’s already better than Peguero.
Yay, Ryan!
Atta boy Ryan! They are terrifed of Jimenez!
Great job by Felix to get out of trouble.
Both ‘balls’ were in the strike zone.
This game sure turned to ‘suck’ rather quickly
George freaking Kottaras?
Yay for Power Sphere!
Reddick looks like that guy from the Star Trek episode where he had to fight an insane version of himself from another universe for all eternity…
I think it was the same actor who had the lead in “Here Comes the Brides” (yeah, I’m old).
Yeah it was – Robert Brown.
Pretty sure he was safe, but nice throw Thames.
GREAT throw by Thames!!
Somewhat balances out his earlier misplay.
Shellacked!
Oh, no – Felix is human after all!
Well that game sucked
Beaten by players nobody has ever heard of.
Oh, boy – Noesi.
Smoak’s up with somebody on base again. What a waste.
Hey, he didn’t make an out after all – he worked a walk!
Boy, the score is 6-1 and it doesn’t even feel THAT close…
Well that was pretty pathetic.
The defensive plays that Thames occasionally makes are evveryday plays for Casper Wells. He has NEVER been given an honest chance to find his swing. The Mariners lead the majors in evaluation futility. That’s career, not season to season. A totally lost organization – which is why they lose so regularly.
Why is Smoak in again?
Nobody knows, Norah. Must be specific direction from the FO.
Duck Miguel olivo and Eric wedge for ever. And duck autocorrect too. Duck it right in their ducking assess assesses.
Oh duck it all.
There is no excuse to have Olivo as a DH anymore as Liddi’s a RHB.
Wow, totally missed this game – we visited friends at their lake property and went tubing. I think we made the right choice.
Westside Guy, you didn’t miss a thing.
Game 141, Athletics at Mariners – Now
Jason Vargas vs. Tommy Milone
Gutierrez CF
Saunder LF
Montero DH
Seager 2B
Olivo C
Wells RF
Carp 1B
Liddi 3B
Ryan SS
To my surprise, Wedge actually mentioned Carp’s reverse splits last year (but not using that terminology) with regard to why he was in the lineup. I don’t really care at this point – I’m just happy not to see Smoak in the lineup.
Hey Condor – nice catch!
Nice to see an outfield where the team’s not punting defense for once. Come on Casper, take advantage of this chance!
Amen, brother.
Good OF defense … And since Wells apparently gets the reverse Smoak treatment, he NEEDS to have a good day. Make it happen, Casper. Force Wedge’s hand. Ditto Carp.
With Carp, I’m wondering if Wedge is going slow with him because of his recent groin issues. All those splits have to be hard on that area!
Ken Wilson has a great voice. I don’t know that he’s all that great shakes as an announcer, but he does have a very good voice for this sort of thing.
Man. so far, our guys aren’t doing much against Milone.
I like Wilson as an announcer. Wouldn’t mind hearing more of him.
Did you notice Wells’ footwork in the box during his AB? It’s awkward when his timing is “on” … And his timing is most definitely not “on” right now. How could it be, after all? I hope he finds it fast, though. It would be great to have a #4 OF that could cover all 3 spots. It’s up to him at this point … Which begs a question – how old was Jay Buhner before he finally laid claim to a full time job with the Mariners?
Looks like Buhner got the full-time gig in his age 26-27 season (He turned 27 in August). Not sure why they waited that long, though, since the previous two years he was already hitting pretty well – on the order of .275/350/.485.
The current team would kill for that line…
Argh. Looked it up – Wedge doesn’t have a corner on the stupid lineup construction prize. Other than Buhner, in 1989 and 1990 none of the “first string” right fielders had even a .700 OPS.
Man looking at those old Mariners teams… no wonder I couldn’t remember any of the right fielders that came before Buhner. They were BAD.
Buhner got to play 50-60 games in both 1989 and 1990. How could the team not see how much better he was than those other guys?
You beat me to it. I found the same thing. I remember Buhner got the “yo-yo” treatment for a while and was extremely frustrated by it. Eventually he won the job. I assume there is a lesson to be learned in there somewhere.
Comparable arms. Wells runs better. Both have/had contact issues. Buhner eventually emerged. I doubt Wells will emerge in the same way, but some xomparanle percentage of it is certainly possible. Too many tools to get the shit treatment IMO
I agree regarding Wells, although he certainly hasn’t shown the consistent offensive ability Buhner did (seriously – I’m floored, looking back, at how they apparently couldn’t see this guy who was already raking).
Sometimes I’d really like to be a fly on the wall when Wedge and Zduriencik meet. I have a hard time believing the short leash Wells has is that capricious – there HAS to be a reason, although I can’t see what it could possibly be.
Okay, Wells has a shot with guys on base – come on dude!
Okay,
WellsCarp has a shot with guys on base – come on dude!Carp. I mean Crap.
This time of year should be awesome, with football and baseball, but it’s annoying that so many people stop caring about baseball at the most exciting part of the season.
I had to step away for a few minutes… Saunders hit a triple?? Pardon me while I rewind the DVR…
I have a garage bay turned into mancave heaven – with 3 TV’s going – so I have found a way to care about them all. Baseball has center stage. Seahawks and a tennis match on the old school small SDTV’s. A neighbor came by to shake his head in jealous amazement/bemusement so i have been too busy to catch a Packers score, yet. I am not sure why we bought a house. I only need the garage. I missed how the A’s got their runs.
Time to FOCUS!
It’s go-time, Casper!
Let’s go!!
Mike, I am officially jealous of your man-cave.
… And we will probably see a pinch hitter for Wells, later in the game, now. And the beat goes on, for him. Gotta get it done when given the chance.
Come on Carp! Tie it up.
… And now it’s come on Liddi!
Way back I realize but – Saunders triple was a real triple, not the usual “mistake triple” we often see.
And by “we”, I mean “fans of teams other than the Mariners”. We Mariners fans don’t see that many of those.
… And yelling expletives with the garage door open, will not do anybody any good, so iPhone expletives it is:
Forfuckingcrapoutloudwellscarpandliddi – getajobdoneyoudumbasses!!!
hehehe Mike.
It sure seems like on any given day only two Mariners are going to produce at all. It varies somewhat which two it is, though.
Guti’s made some good contact today – he’s just been unlucky to hit them right at guys.
I suppose the team will be much better off when Ackley shows he can hit Big League pitching, consistently. He has had a crappy year, all things considered. Nowhere near the crappiest on the team – but nowhere near good. Just barely passable IMO. C- territory.
Probably a B- if grading on a curve.
Yeah, his bat has been seriously disappointing this year. He has, on the other hand, been far better defensively than most of us thought he would be.
But on this team, I think the disappointing bat has been a bigger deal, since we have enough plus defenders around him that covering for an defensively average second baseman wouldn’t have meant a huge dropoff.
Of course if his bat DOES come around, we may be looking at another Bret Boone. With Ackley, I think I’m still hopeful – don’t know whether I can logically support it though.
Mike, you called it. Jaso pinch-hitting for Wells…
Against a rightie, though, it makes sense.
Jaso with a double!
Come on Carp!!
CRAP on a crap cracker, Carp!
Swing the bat, Carp!
Fuck!!
Crank it up Thames. Good thing we need two runs to tie, now.
Okay, it’s Power Sphere’s turn to try.
Good call on the PH, here. Can’t send Mune up there down by two.
Crap. That was disappointing. I thought if Jimenez was able to get on, we had a decent shot with Guti and Saunders coming up next.
Mariners swept at home. Packers getting worked at home. Time for me to leave home and go fishing.
Go Seahawks. Go Serena.
I think the Athletics showed the Mariners the difference between a young, not-awful team and a good team. You need more than two or three guys who don’t suck either defensively or offensively.
I think the Mariners can be that team, but they’re obviously not there yet. Some guys need to step up. Ackley, obviously. One of either Carp or Smoak… although I am not convinced either one of them is really the solution. And right field needs to get sorted out, one way or the other (BTW Wedge – give Wells an extended look! Don’t sit him for a week just because he went 0-3 in one game).
Seager can hold down third. Ryan can be our shortstop for a couple more years. We’ve got Zunino coming up soon, I’d guess. And I don’t think it makes sense to spend a bunch on pitching, given what we’ve got on the farm.
Does anyone know if Smoak has any remaining options? With Carp’s injury so soon after Smoak got sent down this season, the team basically was forced to waste one on the dud(e) this year.
Westy, if Smoak spent less than 20 (or 25?) games in Tacoma, I don’t think it burns an option. I may be mistaken about that, but I think that’s the rule. So I would guess he does have an option left. I don’t think he was in Tacoma that long. Someone correct me if I’m wrong.
Steve, according to milb.com he was in Tacoma for exactly 20 games this year.
So I suspect that indeed used up an option.
I think he may have a fourth option available since he spent all of 2008 in A ball. But I find all these option rules confusing, so I could very easily be misinterpreting that part of the option rules.
I hope there are no Options remaining and as a result, the team gets rid of him because it no longer wants him. He is stunting the growth of the entire roster and the entire fan base.
Was that over-stating things a bit?
And take Oliggins with you! And don’t let the door hit you in the ass!!
Now that is definitely not over-stating it.
Did you not catch any fish Mike?
Good guess (LOL) but I decided not to go out today, after all. Too windy. I went Thur, Fri and Sat and caught some bass. Catch and release. Mostly small ones, but dumb enough to bite anything that wiggles. When the wind dies down on tue or wed, I will go catch some more – after work.
So, Smoak should be out of options. I don’t think the fourth option applies, as this would be year number five regardless, right?
Either way, it’s really hard to imagine the team planning to move forward with him.
No, his first major league appearance was in 2010 – so next year would be #4. That’s why I was wondering if he had a fourth option or not.
I had understood that the clock started when a player is on the 40-man, regardless of being on the active roster or not. I was mistaken about 2008, but was he on the roster in 2009?
OK Westy, I think I know the answer… (drum roll)
He wasn’t on the 40 man in 2009, so it would appear that he does qualify for another option.
Really feels like he’s been around too long!
badabadabadabadabadabadabadabadabadabada
(that was supposed to be a drum roll)
Hehe, and the reason we’re both spending so much time investigating this is because no one wants to see Smoak on the 2013 opening day roster.
Was that roll in 16ths?
Really wonder how serious they are about Monty learning the position.
So, I guess that A’s series was as thrilling for USSM as it was for us…
Hey Jeff Sullivan wrote about Smoak today – and he talked about his minor league options:
“But unless I’m just completely wrong, Smoak’s got another option year left. He was optioned in 2010 and he was optioned in 2012, but his only time in the minors in 2011 was during a brief rehab assignment. These things are always partially guesswork but it seems to me that Smoak could spend a lot of next year with Tacoma.”
Too funny Westy. Never even looked at 2011, I just assumed an option had been burned.
If Smoak isn’t dealt in some kind of package, or swapped for another bust in the making, I hope he starts the season in Tacoma and stays there for the better part of the season, if not all of it, even if he has a good spring and hits well in Tacoma. I’d like to see them give him all the time they can to solidify his swing -if it’s even possible.
Having said that, I wouldn’t lose any sleep if he went away.