Game 148, Orioles at Mariners
Hector Noesi vs. Chris Tillman, 7:10pm
The Orioles come to town with a 2.5 game lead over the Angels for the second wildcard. In a critical week in the American League, the Angels/Rangers face off beginning tomorrow, while the A’s and Tigers meet in Detroit. The White Sox and Detroit just played a make-up game today, and the White Sox won their 4th in a row to take a three game lead over the Tigers.
Meanwhile, the Orioles have to like the match-up; they get to face a sub-500 team while their Wild Card rivals play each other. They’re 5-1 against Seattle this year, and they start Chris Tillman, who’s been very good against Seattle (and not so great against everyone else). They’re also facing Hector Noesi, who was demoted after his last start, on the 4th of July. Back then, he gave up 4 runs in 5 innings – a line that was both bad and somewhat encouraging at the time. The Orioles have a chance to put some distance between themselves and the Angels, a fact that will lead to conflicting emotions in the mind of many M’s fans.
Noesi’s obviously been bad in the rotation; his once-promising season* wrecked by home runs, two-strike lapses and the worst kind of command problem a pitcher can have. The M’s want to see more of him this September to see if what he worked on in Tacoma has made a difference, as he’s going to be a fairly important piece for 2013. The M’s may not be able to resign both Jason Vargas and Hisashi Iwakuma, and they’re going to need a good starter for much of the year, especially if Hultzen and Paxton aren’t ready to go out of the gate. The M’s have some less-sexy candidates for that role if Noesi continues to disappoint, but Noesi offers a lot of added potential – the ability to be a decent #3, not just a stopgap #4/5 like Blake Beavan. If he wants to reach that potential, however, he’s going to have to improve his fastball markedly.
Pitch fx sources aren’t agreed on the border between Noesi’s two- and four-seamers, but Brooks lists the majority of them as four-seamers, which helps explain his fly-ball tendencies and his lack of ‘sink’ on most of his FBs. Using their pitch-types, Noesi’s given up a horrific 13 HRs and 26 total extra-base hits on just 158 fastballs put in play. This all adds up to a slugging percentage of .608 *despite* a low BABIP. That gives him one of the worst ISOs in baseball on the pitch. This is not a huge sample, of course, as we’re only looking at the results of balls hit in play. But this is his *fastball* here. There are 158 balls in play, and expanding the data to include 2011 doesn’t really help much. Last year, opponents hit .329 with a slugging percentage of .588 off his fastball. This is a problem.
The most notable change the M’s seem to have made with Noesi is getting him to use his change-up more. This is partially the result of the fact that he’s facing more lefties now than he did as a bullpen arm in the Bronx, but it seems to be at least partially strategic. He’s used the change-up more frequently to lefties this year, and he’s using it against righties as well, something he didn’t do last year. His slider’s still a decent pitch too. Despite the fact that he’s been punished for mistakes with both the slider and the change-up (three HRs each), they don’t seem systematically flawed the way his FB does. The slider/change generate whiffs and grounders – the fastball outcomes seem divided between several species of bad. This is bizarre, almost Henderson-Alvarez-level puzzling. It doesn’t *look* bad per se, it’s not slow, and it’s not straight. Here’s where the M’s pitching coaches can earn their pay. If he’s tipping the pitch, they need to figure that out. If he needs to work on his 2-seamer, then that work needs to start happening. If the movement of the pitch is taking it into too many sweet-spots, then he needs to talk to Felix or even Jason Vargas about getting more cutting action on his four-seam. What he’s doing isn’t working, and the offseason rumor of increased velocity hasn’t really panned out either. He’s been bad, but he seems fixable, and it’d change the outlook for the team in 2013 if they’re able to actually fix him.
Just as Yu Darvish predictably regressed to the mean and had a good outing against the M’s, I’d love it if Chris Tillman stopped coasting to easy wins off the M’s. I know he’s wanted to, as he put it, “stick it up [the M's] butts a little” but he’s made his point. Time for the M’s to hit him. In his career, he’s actually had more trouble against righties than lefties, so it’s good to see Montero behind the plate and Guti in CF.
The line-up:
1: Ackley
2: Gutierrez
3: Seager
4: Montero (C)
5: Jaso (DH)
6: Saunders
7: Smoak
8: Thames
9: Ryan
SP: Hector Noesi
* – Literally once. One time. It was promising on April 14th, 2012.
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71 Responses to “Game 148, Orioles at Mariners”
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Not a bad 1-6 Wedge has running out there. It’d be even better if Ackley would really figure things out rather than just occasionally tantalize us with the the prospect of better days to come.
Thames lately has seemed to be modelling his approach after Miguel Olivo’s “good approach at the plate”, unfortunately. And I’m sure we’re going to hear a lot about Smoak’s line from the Texas series, but I’m not buying it.
Hard to get excited about Noesi pitching tonight. Really hope he’s better with his fastball. Equally less excited about Montero catching him. I’m not advocating for Olivo, just wonder if Jaso would do a better job with pitch selections.
Really Westy?! Get on-board, man…. Smoak is clearly back on the train-track!!! All he needed was a confidence boost. This was clearly the turning point!
Westside – The problem isn’t Thames swinging like Olivo (look at the difference in contact %). The problem is that right now when Thames makes contact the quality of his batted balls are about even with Brendan Ryan! [insert sad-face here]
screw it, let Noesi take the loss, so the Angels can’t gain ground in the wild card
I must be missing something, because according to FanGraphs…
Miguel Olivo contact %: 67.9
Eric Thames contact %: 71.2
Thames is a little better, but it’s by no means night and day.
Speaking of FanGraphs… I think some of these people advocating for Ackley to hit the OF and Seager to move to 2B need to look at how these guys are doing defensively at their current positions. Especially with regard to Seager – you know how hard it is to find defensively skilled third basemen?
I know Dave has talked about potentially moving Ackley due to the (potential) upcoming logjam at 2B. I don’t necessarily agree with that, but that’s a completely different argument.
I just think there are far more OF that can hit than 2B.. Now if Nick Franklin is going to hit like an all star, then sure Ackley to the OF is cool.. But for now, I’d rather bring in a legit OF, but that is just my opinion.
I agree with you CM. Additionally, there’s also the consideration that Ackley has shown he is actually quite good defensively, at least looking at UZR (and my eyeballs concur! hehe). If Franklin can play defense as well as Ackley, then I can see at least talking about the move. But, if he can’t, we’re punting defense regardless – so maybe we see how well Franklin could transition to a corner OF.
I hate punting defense *at all*; but, if the team has decided to sacrifice at one position, I think a good defensive second baseman is more valuable than a good defensive corner outfielder.
If you have to move Ackley off 2B, you are better off trading him because right now he’d be a poor hitting outfielder.
Well there’s a Noesi-esque start…
Right now, Ackley is a poor hitting 2B. At least less than average (poor might be over-stating it).
Franklin is a natural infielder who may or may not be able to stick at SS. Ackley was drafted as – and believed his future position was going to be as an OF (he said LF specifically). The fact that he has been able to handle 2B as well as he has – has been pretty amazing. Damn amazing. Kudos to him!
However, Acklet has not yet proven he can be a good ML hitter. He might become one, but he isn’t currently one. Franklin is a level lower and hasn’t proven much at that level (yet) either – in a small sample. I am not extremely high on either one of them at this point, but there is a lot of hope for both … And they both might end up profiling as 2B.
No no-no for Noesi. That sure didn’t take long.
Between Ackley, Franklin, Miller, and Romero, who has the most trade value?
I agree Ackley’s bat has been disappointing… and puzzling. It’s funny because everyone thought he’d be very good offensively and so-so (at best) defensively.
Man, Noesi doesn’t appear to have changed at all.
Did Wedge owe Showalter a favor?
There are lots of reasons to be optimistic, but a potential logjam is still just that. Remember that at one point Cat the bat was supposed to work his way into a lineup and fell flat on his face in AAA. Now I’m just as high on Franklin and Ackley as the next guy, but let’s not pencil either one into the permanent future just yet. The discussion of punting defense or whether one can hit well enough for the outfield doesn’t really have much weight until BOTH are hitting well enough to force the issue of who plays where.
And in breaking news, Noesi still sucks.
At this point would it be a worthwhile exercise to let Triunfel have some time at SS? We know what we have in Ryan…
Bookbook, I would think that Ackley as the somewhat proven major leaguer would have the most value. But then again teams do overvalue prospects a bit much.
Well let’s hope Vargas and Iwakuma both want to return and with reasonable terms…Noesi just gives up home runs, that’s just unlucky right?! Montero needs to provide more value and a healthy Pineda needs to become Ian Snell for this trade to look good.
It literally is as though Noesi has great stuff in the first two pitches in each at bat, and then forgets what to do, and either throws them all over, or throws them right down the middle. He almost never works just off the black, and he has no confidence in throwing is curve in the zone 0-2.
For all we know, Stefen Romero could push both Franklin and Ackley off of 2B eventually, but as Jordan said – the Curse of Catricala could catch up with Romero next year, too.
And, Catricala still has time for a rebound, but he needs to improve a lot.
If Romero were to break through, it would be kind of ironic. He played 3B in College while Seager played 2B in College.
Brad Miller is going to enter the fray soon, too. Hopefully there will be a good fielding, good hitting SS somewhere along the way.
And while I am here … Noesi sucks ass. All arm. No brain.
Pull him. Boo him. Buy him a one way ticket to anywhere.
So, how does this rank among the worst starts in Seattle Mariner’s history?
Noesi needs to look for another line of work.
Maybe pitching BP.
High. Very high … On whatever type of scale measures sucking ass. I waited all day for this – like the rest of you.
Good move by the org to jam in a start for Noesi.. He was clearly ready.
Wow, this game got unwatchable early. Yikes.
I wonder how many relievers were anticipating the bullpen phone to ring in the second inning.
Any of them that have seen Noesi pitch.
There are lots of reasons to be optimistic
There are?
CONDOR!!
Holly crap, Brandon League is back -with worse hair!
I feel bad for Noesi. This performance must have been flattening. Really hope he can let it go, work on the things he needs to, and come back strong in spring. I’m assuming he’s done for the year, at least as a starter.
Remember when it seemed like Noesi might be a sneaky throw in with Montero
Noesi might be a sneaky throw-in this off-season. Different kind of sneaky throw-in, though.
Still hoping to see Montero bloom.
BTW last 30 days:
Saunders .333/.406/.702 – 213 wRC+
Seager .300/.351/.510 – 146 wRC+
Then it drops off precipitiously…
Smoak/Carp/Guti/Ackley 108/105/104/97 wRC+
And so on. Suffice it to say Montero isn’t blooming right now.
Still last 30 days…
Trayvon Robinson wRC+ 54
Brendan Ryan wRC+ 36
Miguel Olivo wRC+ 8
I love wRC+ and wOBA. However, wRC+ is too kind. Any number below 100 could just as easily be shown as a negative … Which would be more befitting the unfortunate reality. In other words, Ryan would be -64 and Olivo would be -92 for your referenced timeframe. It just seems to have a more realistic ring to it – IMO.
I must admit I’m having a hard time reconciling what I’ve seen of Smoak’s performance in the last 30 days and a wRC+ of 108 – but he has walked quite a bit.
Hehe, I like the idea of a -92 for Olivo!
Check Adrian Beltre last 30 days.. GEEZ!
Has anybody ever posted a 1 (-99) wRC+ for any substantial period of time?
If not, I want to see Figgins get his chance. Maybe he can lead off again for a month next year and take a shot at the title.
Adrian Beltre .380/.422/.880 wRC+ 240
WOW!
One thing about wRC+ is it doesn’t totally correlate with overall value, unlike WAR. Saunders had a much higher wRC+ over the period, but he also missed a bunch of days – he had a tad more than half as many ABs as Seager.
Beltre has put up those values playing almost every day, like Seager – good grief! That’s sick.
Hey Mike, I bet 2011 Saunders might have come close at some point…
The Broncos are making things interesting … In that sport of committee meetings punctuated by violence.
That’s got to be a bad feeling, having a line drive coming at you and you can’t see it…
Just looking at months where he played regularly – Saunders had an wRC+ of -15 in May 2011.
Capps looks very stressed out. Relax, man, it’s 9-1.
Michael is not having a good inning. Come on, Saunders.
I prefer wOBA – but don’t ask me to explain why. I think it is just a bit easier for me to comprehend (a bit more pure). I have noticed that the two stats do seem to mirror each other very well (Leaders in one are leaders in the other – in close to exact order). At least to the extent I have noticed.
I like them both, though. Anybody else have a preference?
So, Saunders was 115% worse than league average for that particular month? Is that what the stat was saying? That’s hard to wrap one’s mind around.
Yeah, I have a hard time understanding how one could get a negative number – I would’ve thought 0 was the floor.
May 2011 – Figgins had a wRC+ of 6, followed by a 28 in June.
I’m still trying to wrap my head around wRC+ – but I am trying to use it because guys who know more about this than I do choose to use it.
wOBA is easier to understand, I agree. It just seems easier to relate to a real concrete value for me.
I prefer my eye balls. Saunders is a butcher. Thames not much better. Why Wells can’t buy an inning is a fucking joke. Guy gets maybe 7 at bats. What’s Thames, 1 for 20? Wedge is a moron. What’s your fancy ass equation for that?
Westy, for the Saunders month you referenced, what was his wOBA? If .320 is league average, he must have been in the .100′s.
And, I am not certain if .320 is league average. I can’t actually remember the measurement scale as I sink further into the couch.
May 2011 – Saunders hit .111/.164/.159 for a wOBA of .144!!! Oh man…
Welcome back VC. Wells is hurt. Tweaked his neck in BP the other day.
Drive safely.
League average wOBA apparently varies in the neighborhood of .320-.330 (according to an SB Nation article I found).
Hey, Triunfel sighting!
THAMES!
Okay, we’re only down by 8 now.
Okay, that kissing the bat thing is WEIRD.
Sims just said “nothing across” in an inning where the M’s had a home run and a walk with a runner LOB. I assume he assumes no one is listening.
Haha, Breadbaker. I totally missed that. Maybe even in the booth they’re not paying attention at this point.
JASO!!
Only down by 6 now! hehehe
Another nothing across coming?
OH… so close. I thought he had #2 there.
Nice AB by Triunfel. He did not want to make the last out of the game. Good for him.
Hey, Muni!
Okay, Trayvon – don’t swing at crap.
“I used to be a starter. Now I’m doing mop up work in a blowout. I am not going to react well to this.”
Unfortunately Trayvon did not have any compunction against making the last out.
If Hector Noesi breaks camp with the team next year, I’m going to cry.