Jon Garland Packs His Things
A baseball organization, in a lot of ways, is like a living being. And as with a living being, if you spend a long enough time getting to know a baseball organization, you start to get a sense of its personality. When you get a sense of a personality, you start to be able to anticipate certain behaviors. You start to feel certain ways about things, even if you can’t put your finger exactly on why. We all know the Mariners really well, and as such, I think we all expected the Mariners to add Jon Garland to the roster. From the instant Garland was signed, it felt like he had the inside track on a rotation spot. I don’t know why we felt that way, given that Garland is coming off major surgery, but it seemed to make so much sense. Garland was a veteran, and once upon a time, he was proven and durable. Eric Wedge would remember him from the AL Central. It seemed like Garland would make the team as long as he didn’t suck in spring training, and Garland didn’t suck in spring training.
Given the terms of Garland’s minor-league contract, the Mariners today had to make a decision on whether or not he’d make the team. To me, there was no question in my mind, no ephemeral whisper of doubt. Dave already posted his assumption that Garland would make it. The writers all seemed to figure that Garland would make it, and I don’t think any of us gave much consideration to the alternate scenario. It was a foregone conclusion that Jon Garland would at least begin the 2013 regular season as a Seattle Mariner. The Mariners this afternoon opted against giving Garland a roster spot.
Now, that doesn’t guarantee that Garland is gone. He has 24 hours to decide what he wants to do, but he packed his stuff and the nameplate above his locker is gone. Garland’s presumably going to work somewhere else, and the Mariners are going to have a different rotation than we expected.
Garland, at his best, worked around 87-91 with his fastball, with enough secondary stuff to scrape by. Garland, this spring, worked around 87-91 with his fastball, with enough secondary stuff to scrape by. Garland said he gave it all he had and it actually wasn’t enough. Clearly, we were all in the wrong getting ahead of ourselves, and we thought we knew more about the Mariners than it turns out we do, but even the people closest to the team have been taken by surprise by this. It wasn’t just fans who thought Garland would get his turns.
Don’t feel bad for Garland, in case you’re tempted. It’s never pleasant to be rejected, especially when you’re rejected by a team like the Mariners, but Garland’s going to find work. Teams have holes in their rotations and teams are going to experience injuries. Garland’s going to get his major-league innings and it’s not like there was any Jon Garland/Seattle loyalty at play. He was always going to be a stopgap; he just lasted even less time than expected. The bigger question is what the Mariners do now.
There are two open spots in the rotation. The competition is down to Brandon Maurer, Erasmo Ramirez, Blake Beavan, and Jeremy Bonderman. I haven’t taken Bonderman seriously all spring, but I just learned a valuable lesson about making assumptions about things I don’t know that well. The Mariners seem to like what his arm is doing. All three of the young guys have options, and Bonderman might be willing to report to Tacoma if he doesn’t make the roster. That much is presently uncertain.
The thing about selecting Maurer is the same as it was with selecting Michael Pineda: have Maurer on the roster all year and you might cost yourself a year of service time. But specifically because of what the Mariners did with Pineda, we can’t rule Maurer out. Personally, I’d just give the jobs to Ramirez and Beavan and then re-evaluate in a month or a month and a half if things aren’t going as desired. That way the service-time concerns are a non-issue and it’s not like the team could be crippled by giving seven starts or so to a potentially ineffective Blake Beavan. I’m somewhat curious about his tweaked delivery. Even before, Beavan wasn’t bad. I still can’t bring myself to trust Bonderman, no matter how hard and freely he’s throwing.
But I don’t know what the Mariners are going to do, and ultimately it won’t be a huge deal, because the Opening Day rotation generally isn’t the season-ending rotation, or even the rotation after three or four weeks. If the Mariners go with Ramirez and Beavan, great, even if Bonderman decides against reporting. If the Mariners go with Ramirez or Beavan and Maurer, great, Maurer can go back down if he struggles and if he doesn’t that’s terrific. If Bonderman gets one of the jobs, you have to think about who’d get dropped from the 40-man roster, but there are droppable players, and if Bonderman struggled he wouldn’t last long. Spring training isn’t a time when teams make long-term commitments. They just make decisions about the roster on the first day of the season.
I wouldn’t have even minded having Garland on the team, given the necessity of having pitching depth, but there’s still enough depth without him that this isn’t unwelcome news. It’s surprising news, is what it is. Will there also be surprising news about the Casper Wells vs. Jason Bay competition? I don’t know, I doubt it, I’m going to dinner.
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I am totally surprised.
Good. Somebody who has no future with this team is gone. Start the season with Felix, Iwakuma, Saunders, Ramirez, and Beavan. At least Beavan has some sort of future with the club, and once one of the Big 4 (or 5? 6?) is ready then you can bump Beavan.
Is this Dave’s way of avoiding having to eat crow? Just kidding. Calm down, everyone.
Watch, Smoak gets optioned, Morse becomes the DH, Morales the first baseman, and both Wells AND Bay make the team.
I don’t think anything will surprise me anymore.
You know, as we get closer to being a contending team my view on “service time” is changing. If you want to be a contender in 2-3 years, and you think Maurer might be a part of that contending– do you want to know he’s in year 2, and you’re gonna have him an extra year down the road… Or when he’s about to make his first World Series appearance, would you rather he have more MLB experience under his belt as he walks out to take the mound?
What I”m saying, I guess, is that other than when you’re in hardcore rebuilding mode, do you really WANT to worry about service-time BEFORE worrying about “are we putting our best players on the field, to win the most games?” Especially when you’re talking about a “journeyman” type pitcher like a Maurer. He’s never gonna cost a whole lot, so don’t you want him getting as much experience against MLB talent as possible? He’s not a guy still working on his pitches, he’s working on the best ways to get guys out.
I think we’re nearing that breaking point where Service Time ceases to be a major concern for certain players (or maybe it’s just “hope” that we’re near that point).
I had an excellent beer called “Irish Death” today, from Iron Horse Brewery. It was really good.
Awesome. I hope you had a good dinner Jeff!
Why is everyone so surprised that the M’s did the logical thing?
Because we are not used to it.
@MrZDevotee
I get what you’re saying in general: when they’re ready, it’s time; put your best product on the field. Outside of truly elite prospects, and especially with pitchers, I am tentatively in agreement.
In Maurer’s case, however, he’s only pitched twenty-four games in AA, zero in AAA. I think it is reasonable to question his readiness despite a strong 2012. I’d like to see him continue last season into this one in the minors first.
@philosophool
“In Maurer’s case, however, he’s only pitched twenty-four games in AA, zero in AAA. I think it is reasonable to question his readiness despite a strong 2012. I’d like to see him continue last season into this one in the minors first”
I read this kind of comment often. I think it can mean either or both of two things: 1) the player in question needs more time in the minors to learn the trade; or 2) they are not sure his talent is major league quality yet.
I do not think we can evaluate if a player needs more time in the minors “from the stands” until they start playing real games (once the games count we can evaluate based on statistical data of course) . In the meantime I would have to defer to the people standing on the field and watching the player’s stuff, composure, etc.
Three historical examples: 1) Tom Seaver started his professional career when he was 21 years old, played one year in the minors and was Rookie of the Year I 1967; 2) Randy Johnson started his professional career when he was 21 years old and played 4 years before he made the major league team and even then was marginal 3) Greg Maddux started his professional career at 18 years old, pitched 3 years in the minors came up when he was 21 and had a lackluster first major league season.
This tells me some guys are ready to pitch with minimal minor league time and some guys aren’t. In hindsight, keeping Seaver in the minors another year “for seasoning” would have been a big mistake.
Maurer is 22, he has been a professional since he was 17. He has spent four + years in the minors. He clearly has not been rushed.
Obviously, some guys need to improve/learn and the minors are the right place for them to do it. Some guys, however, are ready to be in the majors and their development can only occur when they are facing the top competition. Maybe Maurer is that guy, maybe he isn’t. I don’t think we can say right now. If the team thinks he can pitch effectively at the big league level I say bring him up.
* and no, I am not claiming Maurer will be the next Seaver, Maddux or Johnson.
Y’know… Garland is an ironic example to balance against Bay.
We’re all so used to “reclamation projects” being failures here, that there really might be a “what if” about Bay regaining his old form.
There’s a good chance he’s been more injured than he ever led on, because if he was an upstanding guy he’d want to be earning the huge contract the Mets were giving him, so trying too hard to get back out there and perform, before he was ready. Or before he even knew what was wrong?
So “what if” there really was a reason an All-Star caliber player was sucking. Bay isn’t Chone Figgins. Right? Bay was never a Chone Figgins. He still got on base, even when his bat wasn’t up to par.
There have been fan statements, and beat writer statements that he’s looked extremely athletic in the field. Surprisingly so. And HE says he’s found his stroke and is happy to be healthy and in a rhythm for the first time in years. Is it just rhetoric? Maybe. But this was the same guy saying “nothing is guaranteed in this game” a month ago, and unable to explain his past few seasons? And not making excuses.
I’m still in the camp of doubting his abilities myself… But again, “what if” he regains the form that garnered him a huge contract from a top MLB club? What if he just gets close to that? That’s still pretty good, right?
Personally, I’d LOVE to have that level of contribution on this team. Maybe we’re in for a pleasant surprise? With or without Wells?
(I read today that the M’s aren’t planning on carrying a dedicated “long reliever”, and Loe has already been told he’s making the club… We might be going with one fewer pitchers than expected to start the season– so maybe Wells and Bay are both safe, and just battling for the starting job?)
“so maybe Wells and Bay are both safe, and just battling for the starting job?”
Which starting job? Morse’s, Guti’s, or Saunders’?
Or Ibañez’s?
Do you really think they’re going to carry six outfielders?
Oh sure, Westy. Use math on a stats sight. Like that makes any sense. (Oops… I had ever so conveniently forgotten about Ibanez… And it felt REALLY nice.)
Hahaha wish I could!
You know, as we get closer to being a contending team my view on “service time” is changing. If you want to be a contender in 2-3 years, and you think Maurer might be a part of that contending– do you want to know he’s in year 2, and you’re gonna have him an extra year down the road… Or when he’s about to make his first World Series appearance, would you rather he have more MLB experience under his belt as he walks out to take the mound?
This comment seems to assume we know that skipping AAA altogether will be good for Maurer’s development. I don’t understand why you think you know that. It’s possible, I suppose, but it’s at least equally possible not skipping a level might be better instead.
djw-
I don’t assume I know that… I’m referring to the coaching staff’s assessment that he has 4 pitches, he can throw them all for strikes, and he can locate them well… And that’s why he’s still in major league camp.
Seems to imply some of that stuff you thought I was saying “I know”. And I hope I didn’t imply that I KNOW that stuff, I was wondering if he’s at that level, since by the coaching staff’s assessment, he’s not still learning/refining his pitches, but rather learning (at whatever level) how to get guys out. Getting guys out at the AAA level, when you already have your pitches under control, doesn’t teach you how to get guys out at the Major League level. I guess I’ve always inferred that bit of info as the mirror of the fact that putting up Hall of Fame batting numbers in AAA doesn’t equal automatic Major League success.
It’s really about the ability to make adjustments. When you move to AAA you need to make adjustments to get guys out. When you move to the Majors, you’ll need different adjustments to get guys out. And Wedge and Willis have been commenting on his ability to adjust his approach based on what pitches are working for him in each appearance this Spring.
All I “know” is that Hultzen, Paxton and Walker are all in minor league camp, and Maurer is still getting guys out for the Mariners. I actually predicted Maurer as the one of the group that had the best chance to make the M’s, based on coach’s comments I’d read before spring training, and about his “Pitcher of the Year” time in AA. Not that I know anything, just that it sounded like he was the most polished. Felix says he’s the most ready of the minor leaguers, too. And, if not me, then HE might seem like a guy that could “know” that kind of thing.