That Old Time Feeling Returns
|MARINERS (4-6)||ΔMs||RANGERS (6-3)||EDGE|
|HITTING (wOBA*)||-6.0 (23rd)||-1.2||-2.2 (20th)||Rangers|
|FIELDING (RBBIP)||2.1 (13th)||-10.1||6.8 (3rd)||Rangers|
|ROTATION (xRA)||-0.7 (17th)||0||9.5 (1st)||Rangers|
|BULLPEN (xRA)||-1.5 (22nd)||1.0||0.4 (15th)||Rangers|
|OVERALL (RAA)||-6.1 (20th)||-10.4||14.4 (4th)||RANGERS|
Well that was an unpleasant series. Both for those of us at home and for the very few that sought out attending in person. After not selling out the home opener, the Mariners saw consecutive record low numbers of visitors on Tuesday and Wednesday. The performances on those days probably didn’t do much to convince those that did attend to consider it time well spent. Not only were the games lopsided, but they also dragged on to nearly four hours each.
And now we have some fallout from it as Kameron Loe goes away and Aaron Harang enters, probably displacing someone out of the rotation, I’m assuming Blake Beavan. The implosion on Tuesday made the Mariners wary about who was going to handle innings, but that’s not the only way the roster was exposed during the series. A serious lack of bench depth and proper pinch hitting options manifested itself and now they have Michael Saunders’ injury to contend with and the possibility of some truly horrendous outfield defense arrangements.
Speaking of the bullpen, it appears not so stellar thus far, but there are some encouraging fundamentals lurking under the surface level stats. Despite only an average-ish walk rate as a unit, the Mariners’ pen has been throwing pitches in the strike zone at the second highest clip in baseball. And unlike the team that’s best at that, the Rockies, the Mariners’ pen doesn’t also suffer from the league’s highest contact rate. In fact, the Mariners are league average there. So as far as throwing strikes and missing bats, the pen seems fine.
What they have been struggling with is when contact is made, it’s been rock hard. Hitters are getting lots of fly balls and lots of those fly balls have been pulled. They’ll need to improve on that a lot or else Kameron Loe won’t be the only home run-induced casualty.
|Batter||PA||P/PA||Slash line||nBB||K (sw)||1B/2B/3B/HR||Sw%||Ct%||Qual+|
|M Morse||40||4.4||.263/.325/.737||2||11 (11)||4 / 0 / 0 / 6||54||64||172|
|K Seager*||38||4.4||.147/.237/.235||4||6 (6)||2 / 3 / 0 / 0||41||84||85|
|J Smoak^||37||3.7||.156/.270/.156||5||5 (5)||5 / 0 / 0 / 0||43||81||142|
|K Morales^||36||3.4||.313/.432/.500||4||3 (3)||6 / 3 / 0 / 1||45||82||122|
|M Saunders*||33||3.7||.286/.394/.500||3||3 (2)||5 / 1 / 1 / 1||44||81||118|
|D Ackley*||33||4.4||.100/.242/.100||3||4 (2)||3 / 0 / 0 / 0||38||93||108|
|F Gutierrez||33||4.1||.258/.303/.613||2||7 (7)||3 / 2 / 0 / 3||47||78||81|
|J Montero||30||3.3||.133/.133/.133||0||5 (5)||4 / 0 / 0 / 0||50||76||121|
|B Ryan||30||3.7||.231/.300/.231||3||6 (6)||6 / 0 / 0 / 0||39||81||90|
P/PA = pitches per PA [avg~3.9], nBB = uBB + HBP, Sw = swinging [avg~44%], Ct = contact [avg~79%], Qual+ = a measure of quality of batted balls [avg=100, higher is better]
Mariner hitters still are showing above average totals in hitting fly balls, line drives and in pulling (pulled LDs and pulled FBs tend to result in hits and extra-base hits more frequently) both. However, the Mariners team BABIP currently sits only above the Pittsburgh Pirates in the Majors. That’s probably not going to stay there. Over the amount of balls in the play the Mariners have put, the difference between their BABIP and the league average is a whopping 20 hits.
That’s something like 15 runs or so missing which is why you see the Mariners ranked poorly in runs scored and wOBA, but Qual above still has them looking okay. Give it some time.
The Astro’s hitters now have MLB’s highest BABIP.
|Batter||PA||P/PA||Slash line||nBB||SO (sw)||1B/2B/3B/HR||Sw%||Ct%||Qual+|
|I Kinsler||41||4.0||.286/.390/.543||6||4 (3)||7 / 0 / 0 / 3||39||87||119|
|E Andrus||39||4.1||.235/.333/.353||5||5 (4)||6 / 0 / 2 / 0||38||82||119|
|N Cruz||37||3.9||.353/.405/.500||3||8 (7)||9 / 2 / 0 / 1||50||67||184|
|D Murphy*||37||3.8||.176/.270/.353||3||6 (3)||3 / 1 / 1 / 1||44||89||103|
|A Beltre||36||3.8||.200/.243/.343||1||3 (2)||4 / 2 / 0 / 1||51||81||148|
|M Moreland*||34||4.4||.219/.235/.406||1||8 (7)||5 / 0 / 0 / 2||46||72||115|
|L Berkman^||31||3.9||.480/.594/.760||6||3 (3)||7 / 4 / 0 / 1||33||70||135|
|A Pierzynski*||29||3.1||.333/.379/.519||1||4 (3)||7 / 0 / 1 / 1||51||87||128|
|L Martin*||20||3.7||.176/.300/.176||3||5 (3)||3 / 0 / 0 / 0||49||75||74|
The Rangers have most of their offensive threats on the right side, which could help the Mariners this series as they throw mostly righties and new fences aside, home runs to left field are likely still harder than home runs to right field.
|INFIELD||1.1 (17th)||-4.2||5.8 (3rd)||Rangers|
|OUTFIELD||1.0 (12th)||-5.9||1.0 (11th)||–|
|RBBIP||0.300 (12th)||+.073||0.264 (2nd)||Rangers|
|OVERALL||2.1 (13th)||-10.1||6.8 (3rd)||RANGERS|
I warned you about the fielding numbers. Yeah, Mariners, watching 44 hits drop in will do a number to your team’s rankings.
11 APR 19:10 – FELIX HERNANDEZ vs JUSTIN GRIMM
It’s not complete yet, but I’ve made progress on porting over my pitcher scouting graphs. I will give a quick sample here to explain the concept. Here’s Felix:
Across the top is the legend for each pitch, along with it’s frequency and average speed, that Pitch F/X records Felix as throwing at least 5% of the time. Those will correspond to the bars in the main chart area. The unspecified black bar is for Felix’s overall ranking. That is not an average of the individual pitch rankings, but rather an overall score, computed in the same fashion.
Each pitch is examined on three metrics: contact rate, strike rate, and ground ball rate. And each pitch is graded only against pitches of the same type from other pitchers. That means that Felix’s changeup is only compared to changeups thrown by others. For each pitch and each metric, I compute the league median and then grade each pitch by finding its median absolute deviation, which I express in the chart as z. Roughly speaking, it’s like finding the standard deviation, but better.
Now I need to figure out why WordPress keeps erasing my formatting and wrapping my text around the image. Experiments!
12 APR 19:10 – HISASHI IWAKUMA vs YU DARVISH
13 APR 18:10 – JOE SAUNDERS* vs ALEXI OGANDO
14 APR 13:10 – BRANDON MAURER vs NICK TEPESCH