Game 15, Tigers at Mariners
Aaron Harang vs. Doug Fister, 7:10pm
The newest Mariner faces off today against an ex-Mariner, giving everyone a chance to sigh and wonder what the hell happened with that trade. Casper Wells was DFA’d by the Blue Jays, and Charlie Furbush is a perfectly serviceable lefty bullpen arm, but it’s always tough watching six feet eight inches of walking, talking, hitting-the-blacking evidence of the fallibility of talent evaluation, and how bad we are (bloggers, fans, GMs, analysts, talking heads) at predicting the future. Doug Fister is now throwing a bit slower with the Tigers than he did in any previous April, but it doesn’t really matter – his game was never about velocity. His ground ball rate has continued to climb, and is now solidly over 50%. A big part of this is that he’s all but shelved his four-seam fastball (which he threw almost exclusively when he first came up in 2009) for a two-seam sinker. This started before the trade, but better feel for the pitch has probably helped him. He’s made a lot more use of his curve ball since becoming a Tiger, particularly against right-handed batters, and that may account for his higher strikeout rate.
Aaron Harang is basically a fastball/slider guy, who generates a lot of fly balls. Early in his career, he got enough strikeouts to mitigate the HR problems that came with his pitching style; he put up back to back 5 WAR seasons for the Reds several years ago. But starting in 2008, the small park + fly ball combo was too much, even for his above-average K:BB ratio to overcome. Interestingly, the bulk of his HR problem has come against same-handed hitters. Almost everything in his splits are even – K rate (actually better vs. lefties), average, BABIP, etc. His walk rate’s worse versus lefties, but the big thing that sticks out is his HR rate, which is clearly higher against righties. Why? Well, I have no idea, but he throws four-seamers almost exclusively to righties, and he throws his two-seamer/sinker to lefties. And his HR problems have been worst with his four-seamer. The result is that his HR rate gives him reverse splits by FIP, and perfectly normal splits by xFIP. I’m sure someone’s talked to him about it, but I’d mix in a few more two-seamers to righties. We already know that two-seamers have much larger platoon splits than other kinds of fastball, which makes his usage patters counter-intuitive, to say the least. He’s now in what we’d assume is a good park given his skill set (though not as good as last year), but keep in mind he’s not going to run the kind of K rates he ran in recent years anymore – his K rate against non-pitchers is in the 15.5% range, as opposed to the 16.5-17% marks he posted. That’s not a huge deal, but it could have spillover effects on things like his strand rate. All of that said, it’s tough to complain about his acquisition.
I know many of you are sick to death of sports business/revenue type posts, so I’d advise you not to click on my post about the risk in the ROOT sports deal or Dave’s on the moneymoneymoney the M’s stand to gain.
With Stephen Pryor on the DL with a torn lat muscle, the M’s have brought up Yoervis Medina from AAA Tacoma. He’s gone from a bad starter to something of a joke amongst 40-man roster observers to a quietly effective reliever. Medina throws a hard, heavy fastball in the mid-90s (and you wondered why he was still on the 40-man) and gets a decent number of grounders. I still think Carson Smith is the best pitcher with this basic template in the system, but Medina’s much more ready. I’ll be fascinated to see how he does; he’s been excellent in his very, very brief tenure with Tacoma.
Good to see both Guti and Mike Morse back in the line-up. Here’s hoping they’re able to go at 100%, and that Morse’s pinky injury doesn’t impact his swing.
Line-up!
1: Gutierrez, CF
2: Seager, 3B
3: Morales, DH
4: Morse, RF
5: Ibanez, LF
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Shoppach, C
8: Ackley, 2B
9: Ryan, SS
SP: Harangutan
As Dave mentioned on twitter, that’s Shoppach’s 4th start in 6 games. We’ll see if this pattern continues and if/where the M’s deploy Montero.
Ryan Divish has a good post on Ackley using his off-day to rework his pre-swing routine. Gone is that very open stance as the pitcher goes through his delivery, and he’s back to something similar to last year’s swing.
Ok, something slightly more up-beat: Larry Stone has a great interview with Mike Zunino. I saw Zunino a bit this weekend, so I’ll try to organize some thoughts on him too.
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91 Responses to “Game 15, Tigers at Mariners”
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Awesome. Poor process, poor result.
6 pitches, no strikes, for the kid who didn’t know he’d be in the majors 2 days ago.
I just gave a rather hysterical laugh when I saw that this kid’s now up against Cabrera.
Sports on a Shtick-
AND… Poor kid. (Feel bad for him.)
A strike and the tiny crowd roars!
And to think this was a close game at one point…
Is Wedge the worst MLB manager. He has to be. has to.
“STRIKE THREE!”
(I just fainted… Couldn’t even type this. You’re not reading this.)
Thank God the ump didn’t squeeze him on that pitch.
Good job kid who I did not catch your name!
Y’know I’ve NEVER been a “slam Wedge” kinda guy… But that was absolutely frickin’ ridiculous, indefensible, insane, sociopathic…
No excuse. A kid who didn’t know he would even be playing major league baseball in his lifetime 2 days ago ends up facing the reigning MVP with the bases loaded, in what was a 1 run game (before he walked the FIRST GUY he faced on 4 straight pitches).
WTF… He should just flat out be fired. Now. Before the game ends. Z should storm on onto the field yelling “TIME OUT”!
YOU! (pointing at Wedge) FIRED!
Great name! Al Alburquerque.
Why does it seem like Ryan leads off on any inning they need to ‘get something going’?
i mean, WTF is Wedge going to say? He’s always preaching for veteran bullshit or whatever… then he throws out the kid with the based loaded against a former All-Star and the reigning Triple Crown winner?
(Sorry, I’ve calmed down now. Phew.)
Well, I’m taking a more cynical view of Wedge’s decision. He’s been told that he should treat the season like one long Spring Training. Get the kids in there, fill in holes with old has-beens, get through nine innings.
Juneau-
If you can do that, I need to switch my anti-depressants to whatever your’s are! *laugh*
Garland, Fister, good moves
I stick with the classics, Mr. Z; booze.
Wishing for a ‘like’ button. Your rant was superb.
The only rational explanation– and one he could never admit, if it’s true– is he was thinking “I don’t wanna use any guys that we’ll need to save Felix’s win tomorrow.”
IE, I’m punting tonight’s game… Put in the kid.
Dammit Juneau.
We’re on the same meds (Scotch). I think I need to double my dosage.
Lost in all this, Nameless Kid has struck out Cabrera and Fielder.
I’m gonna roll a number – medicinal of course
If they’re all going to wear 42, the least they could do is put their names on the jerseys.
“Lost in all this, Nameless Kid has struck out Cabrera and Fielder.”
You mean, Funky Cold Medina? “Ba-da-dump-bump-bump-buh”
Welcome to the bigs, kid. You’re not going to get any of these calls.
I think it’s Funky Cold Medina that’s your medication, not Scotch, Mr. Z.
Heh, nice try, Shoppach.
Y’know, I’m still not ready to be down on this team yet. I’m more than willing to admit that time will probably come, sooner rather than later. But just knowing that we can string enough hits to get a couple runs off a good pitcher, like we did tonight, keeps me interested in a 2 run game all the way to the 9th inning.
Sad to say, but that’s an improvement over this time last year. When being 2 runs down seemed like it was 11-2 if we were in the 9th inning. I actually was interested to see what would happen with Morales and Morse coming up. There was… what’s it called?… “Hope”.
We lost, we didn’t hit all that well, but it was still a decent game (if you completely IGNORE THE BS WEDGE PULLED WITH THE ROOKIE PITCHER! *sorry*)
Go M’s! Happy early Felix-Day!
Shall we call such a move being give a Wedgie?
Thanks MrZ. My username works for so many situations!!
Just a thought…..the rangers have 20 min to trade Julio Borbon. The mariners better damn have a waiver claim in on him right?!?!
They’re not likely to cut Bay, Ibanez, Chavez, or any of the starting outfielders, so I wouldn’t bet on the M’s making a claim for Borbon. Wish they would, but I wouldn’t expect it. He’ll probably get snagged by another team anyway.
He’s going to end up in Houston. Not considering Borbon would be asinine. If they think Chavez could help them more than Borbon, then this ship sinking fast
How is missing out on Borbon a big deal at all? He’s really not good. He strikes out a lot, has no power at all and a weak arm. His ceiling appears to be 5th outfielder, why do we need that? Just because a guy is young, doesn’t mean he’s going to improve exponentially. Not claiming Borbon is not an eggregious mistake and, in my opinion, isn’t a mistake at all. They’re playing Leonys Martin over him and nobody is questioning the decision. That should tell you how you should value Borbon
Well that was glib. Borbon would be an instant upgrade over 3 outfielders that we are running out there on a daily basis. Borbon has shown that he is a plus defender with a good batting eye who can flash a little speed. Missing out on acquiring him for absolutely nothing? Yeah, I’d say that’d be pretty foolish. The point is probably moot as Houston will more than likely grab him. As for Martin, it’s been known that scouts both in and outside of Texas are very high on the kid.
Well that was glib. Borbon would be an instant upgrade over 3 outfielders that we are running out there on a daily basis. Borbon has shown that he is a plus defender with a good batting eye who can flash a little speed. Missing out on acquiring him for absolutely nothing? Yeah, I’d say that’d be pretty foolish. The point is probably moot as Houston will more than likely grab him. As for Martin, it’s been known that scouts both in and outside of Texas are very high on the kid.
Also it’s not like organizations have ever undervalued a player that more forward thing sabremetric types have heralded (Casper Wells looks up from his beer in a small Toronto tavern). I, for one, would love to give Borbon a shot in our outfield and see if he sticks. He’s 27 and could at least be an above average (if only slightly) placeholder until someone from the minors makes it up or a more, “ahem”, Stanton-esque option becomes available! Think of spring training next year! Borbon and Morban!
The thing is Borbon has all the problems that Wells did without some of the upsides. He’s out of options, he’s not “young” anymore despite being unproven. His batting eye has been somewhere from “ehh” to terrible in the big leagues.
He’s basically Endy Chavez without any “veteran presence.” He’s flat out a replacement player. That’s fine and all but there’s no reason to get upset about not making an effort for him. And to say he’d be an above average player anywhere seems like more than a little bit of a stretch.
Borbon isn’t even heralded by sabermetrics. His WAR is bad 1.6 in 746 at bats and his UZR is not particularly strong. He’s a AAAA outfielder who can play center field and is out of options. He’s just not worth the claim and roster move (we’d have to dfa someone).
I don’t think anyone’s proclaiming Borbon as some kind prize for the taking, Marcus. Personally, I’d rather have Chavez -which we do. But over Bay or Ibanez….. yeah, I think I’d rather have Borbon.
What’s sad, is that we don’t have a more solid outfield so we can completely ignore DFA’d players like this.
Wanting Borbon to right the wrong of signing both Bay and Ibanez makes sense to some degree, but I just don’t think he’s the right guy to get behind for that. Ibanez and Bay but suck, unquestionably but Borbon is still a very slight improvement on that if at all. Giving up anything at all for Borbon when we could have just kept Casper Wells, a better player, seems silly to me.
Yeah, that’s the real tragedy in this. Wells is a better option than any of those three.