Mariners Possibly Await Their Doom
| MARINERS (8-15) | ΔMs | ANGELS (8-12) | EDGE | |
| HITTING (wOBA*) | -13.1 (26th) | 2.9 | 11.6 (6th) | Angels |
| FIELDING (RBBIP) | -1.7 (16th) | -6.9 | 1.9 (12th) | Angels |
| ROTATION (xRA) | 6.2 (7th) | 0.7 | -20.8 (30th) | Mariners |
| BULLPEN (xRA) | 3.1 (6th) | 2.0 | -7.6 (29th) | Mariners |
| OVERALL (RAA) | -5.5 (16th) | -1.2 | -14.9 (23rd) | MARINERS |
Welp.
If you listened to the podcast below you can gleam a general sense of mine and Jeff’s current opinion on the Mariners state of affairs. Something is rotten in the state of Cascadia and judging by the schedule, it’s not going to get any easier, even if the Angels seem weak right now. The Mariners cannot even beat the Astros so this isn’t really about the other teams. It’s about the Mariners and they need to get their house in order.
This seems like an opportune time for me to take a break. Actually, after the first two games of the season would have been the best, and hopefully I will return regretting missing some fun and exciting baseball, but oh well. I’ll be back in a few weeks.
| Batter | PA | P/PA | Slash line | nBB | K (sw) | 1B/2B/3B/HR | Sw- | Ct+ | Qual+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Morales^ | 55 | 3.8 | .213/.327/.383 | 8 | 11 (7) | 6 / 2 / 0 / 2 | 99 | 102 | 140 |
| J Smoak^ | 53 | 4.1 | .277/.358/.383 | 6 | 14 (10) | 10 / 2 / 0 / 1 | 93 | 91 | 83 |
| K Seager* | 53 | 4.4 | .383/.453/.660 | 6 | 9 (7) | 9 / 7 / 0 / 2 | 77 | 100 | 114 |
| D Ackley* | 44 | 4.0 | .318/.318/.386 | 0 | 8 (8) | 11 / 3 / 0 / 0 | 96 | 105 | 91 |
| M Morse | 43 | 3.7 | .200/.279/.250 | 3 | 13 (12) | 6 / 2 / 0 / 0 | 107 | 90 | 80 |
| E Chavez* | 39 | 3.9 | .263/.333/.316 | 1 | 6 (6) | 8 / 2 / 0 / 0 | 108 | 106 | 104 |
| R Ibanez* | 38 | 3.8 | .105/.105/.184 | 0 | 11 (11) | 3 / 0 / 0 / 1 | 114 | 94 | 74 |
| B Ryan | 32 | 3.8 | .067/.125/.067 | 2 | 8 (5) | 2 / 0 / 0 / 0 | 102 | 106 | 41 |
| J Bay | 28 | 4.3 | .167/.286/.167 | 4 | 9 (8) | 4 / 0 / 0 / 0 | 79 | 83 | 170 |
| J Montero | 26 | 3.8 | .304/.346/.478 | 2 | 5 (4) | 5 / 1 / 0 / 1 | 106 | 100 | 107 |
| K Shoppach | 25 | 4.0 | .182/.280/.273 | 3 | 9 (8) | 2 / 2 / 0 / 0 | 96 | 78 | 102 |
| F Gutierrez | 23 | 4.2 | .261/.304/.435 | 0 | 7 (5) | 4 / 1 / 0 / 1 | 91 | 101 | 96 |
| R Andino | 22 | 4.4 | .200/.273/.200 | 2 | 8 (5) | 4 / 0 / 0 / 0 | 78 | 86 | 82 |
I made some changes to the charts in these previews. Anything that was previously expressed as a percentage, outside the slash lines, has been converted to a 100+/- scale of the OPS+ ilk. If you see a + on the end that means higher is subjectively better, if you see a – on the end that means lower is subjectively better. I figure this will make for quicker grasping of how swing, contact and ground ball rates are relative to league average, which is ultimately how we judge them.
So what you see above is that Mike Morse has been swinging about 7% more often than league average, making contact on his swings about 10% less often and his batted ball quality is about 20% less robust.
What do you think? Better? Horribly worse?
| Batter | PA | P/PA | Slash line | nBB | SO (sw) | 1B/2B/3B/HR | Sw- | Ct+ | Qual+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M Trout | 56 | 3.8 | .265/.339/.469 | 6 | 9 (7) | 7 / 4 / 0 / 2 | 82 | 99 | 87 |
| A Pujols | 52 | 3.6 | .245/.315/.306 | 3 | 7 (6) | 9 / 3 / 0 / 0 | 108 | 101 | 100 |
| J Hamilton* | 51 | 4.0 | .271/.314/.438 | 3 | 11 (8) | 10 / 0 / 1 / 2 | 124 | 95 | 118 |
| M Trumbo | 51 | 3.8 | .333/.385/.458 | 3 | 13 (8) | 12 / 3 / 0 / 1 | 106 | 94 | 80 |
| P Bourjos | 48 | 3.5 | .317/.396/.439 | 6 | 9 (6) | 11 / 0 / 1 / 1 | 104 | 100 | 81 |
| H Kendrick | 47 | 3.5 | .267/.277/.444 | 1 | 8 (5) | 8 / 2 / 0 / 2 | 113 | 100 | 75 |
| L Jimenez | 42 | 3.6 | .333/.429/.410 | 3 | 14 (14) | 10 / 3 / 0 / 0 | 106 | 87 | 89 |
| C Iannetta | 36 | 4.0 | .300/.361/.433 | 4 | 8 (6) | 5 / 4 / 0 / 0 | 106 | 88 | 150 |
| B Harris | 28 | 4.0 | .286/.321/.464 | 0 | 4 (2) | 5 / 2 / 0 / 1 | 91 | 107 | 166 |
The big narrative about Josh Hamilton last winter was his troubling increase in swing rate and especially his proclivity to swing at pitches outside the strike zone. So far into the 2013 season and that tendency has not regressed.
By straight Pitch F/X, by BIS and by my personal zone calculations, Hamilton is swinging at pitches out of the zone at roughly the same rate as last year. It’s down a little, but it’s also down for MLB as a whole, so that doesn’t make Hamilton any better at it.
Curiously, while there seemed to be a direct cause (Hamilton swings at everything now!) and effect (so pitchers stopped throwing him strikes) last year, that part has regressed considerably. Consider the following breakdown subtlety put in causation order without proof.
2007-11: Hamilton’s oSwing rate is 35%, pitchers put 44% of pitches in the zone.
In 2012: Hamilton’s oSwing rate is 42%, pitchers put 37% of pitches in the zone.
In 2013: Hamilton’s oSwing rate is 39%, pitchers put 46% of pitches in the zone.
oSwing rates have hovered around 28% for the league as a whole, but are down to 26% so far this year, while zone% has been in the 48-9% range for the league at large and is only up a few tenths of a point in 2013. My point is, don’t throw him strikes!
| MARINERS | ΔMs | ANGELS | EDGE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFIELD | -1.3 (20th) | 0.4 | -1.4 (21st) | Mariners |
| OUTFIELD | -0.4 (17th) | -7.3 | 3.3 (11th) | Angels |
| RBBIP | 0.306 (15th) | +.014 | 0.306 (17th) | — |
| OVERALL | -1.7 (16th) | -6.9 | 1.9 (12th) | ANGELS |
There we go. Now the outfield defense looks more accurate.
25 APR 19:10 – BRANDON MAURER vs GARRETT RICHARDS
The Angels pitchers have been what’s sunk them so far this season, but not Garrett Richards yet. Though he’s not as talented as the rest of the staff, his results haven’t been as bombastically terrible in his short sample thus far. I’m super confident that the Mariners will continue that for him.
26 APR 19:10 – AARON HARANG vs C.J. WILSON*
27 APR 18:10 – FELIX HERNANDEZ vs JOE BLANTON
Way to throw too many different pitches and break the image, Joe. I’m glad your contact rate is up in Blake Beavan territory now.
28 APR 13:10 – HISASHI IWAKUMA vs JASON VARGAS*
This game will feature two of Zduriencik’s good moves from the winter. Hisashi Iwakuma we’ve gone over before but this is our first looksee at Angel Jason Vargas and, he has not been good. Kendrys Morales has been useful so that’s clearly a trade working out for Seattle.
We came so close to getting a Joe Saunders v Jason Vargas match up which would have been tickling before the season started when we were talking about how Saunders was almost a carbon copy Vargas in terms of expected production. Then the season began and we found out that Joe Saunders might be terrible. Just like Vargas!
| Reliever | BF | Str+ | nBB | Ct- | K(sw) | GB+ | HR | Qual- | LI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C Capps | 49 | 104 | 2 | 87 | 15 (13) | 57 | 3 | 128 | 1.3 |
| C Furbush* | 38 | 90 | 8 | 80 | 13 (11) | 129 | 1 | 63 | 1.0 |
| O Perez* | 36 | 106 | 3 | 92 | 10 (8) | 50 | 1 | 106 | 1.0 |
| T Wilhelmsen | 34 | 103 | 4 | 114 | 6 (5) | 105 | 0 | 90 | 1.6 |
| B Beavan | 33 | 100 | 2 | 92 | 7 (5) | 96 | 2 | 77 | 0.5 |
| K Loe | 31 | 100 | 1 | 106 | 3 (3) | 85 | 6 | 137 | 0.7 |
| S Pryor | 26 | 102 | 1 | 113 | 7 (3) | 89 | 0 | 109 | 1.7 |
| L Luetge* | 20 | 102 | 0 | 94 | 3 (3) | 94 | 0 | 101 | 0.5 |
The stuff I wrote about the hitting charts applies here as well with the pluses and minuses.
| Reliever | BF | Str+ | nBB | Ct- | K(sw) | GB+ | HR | Qual- | LI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J Williams | 60 | 105 | 5 | 100 | 9 (6) | 90 | 0 | 117 | 0.8 |
| D De La Rosa | 41 | 100 | 4 | 95 | 8 (7) | 111 | 0 | 85 | 0.9 |
| S Downs* | 39 | 100 | 4 | 101 | 7 (5) | 172 | 0 | 77 | 1.9 |
| E Frieri | 36 | 98 | 6 | 82 | 12 (11) | 54 | 2 | 114 | 1.6 |
| S Burnett* | 33 | 97 | 3 | 94 | 7 (6) | 140 | 1 | 94 | 1.2 |
| M Lowe | 29 | 84 | 7 | 96 | 6 (5) | 61 | 1 | 98 | 1.4 |
Comments
7 Responses to “Mariners Possibly Await Their Doom”
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If the slash line is supposed to represent BA/OBP/SLG – then something is drastically wrong with your Mariner “hitters” chart.
If it is supposed to represent something else entirely – then I missed a Memo somewhere along the way.
Again, stats for hitters are last 14 days. For relievers it’s last 28 days.
Matthew, I’m sure you need a break, but please hurry back. I have to get my baseball fix somewhere and I can’t stand to watch or listen to the actual M’s games.
“…this is our first looksee at Angel Jason Vargas and, he has not been good.”
Don’t worry, he’ll look just fine on Sunday.
The chart changes make it easier (for me, anyway) to quickly see what’s been going on – thanks, Matthew.
(Thatthew)
Matthew – Does the Mariner’s overall (RAA) rank of 16th suggest they have been better than their record suggests?
I am as pissed at Z as anyone concerning his roster moves this season. Bay, Ibanez, Wells and Garland are just beyond stupid. There are only 13 position players on a MLB roster. 9 are in the line-up in the AL, one is your back-up catcher which leaves just three spots. If two of those spots are filled by DH’s ( Bay Ibanez ) that leaves one guy. ( Andino ). How can you manage that roster? I don’t know who you blame for Smoak, Ackley, Ryan and Montero sucking but after a while you have to realize these guys are not in a slump, the are just bad. I liked the trade for Morales. If we had kept Garland and Emo was healthy it would look good especially with the emergence of Maurer. Counting on Beavan was just as bad as anything Z has done also. I like Morse but having Wells for defense later innings would have made sense. Has any team in MLB history hit worse than our beloved M’s with RISP for Four consecutive years than these guys. Now factor in that there is nobody in AAA that is even close to warrant a call up. Tacoma has gone from a very good team two years ago to very mediocre now and only Thames looks good and we know his MLB record. Nobody needs any kind of numbers to know that these guys are bad. We need a GM that can do player development. Acquiring talent is just step one. You need to do more than just yell at guys in closed door meetings.