Game 30, Orioles at Mariners

marc w · May 1, 2013 at 5:05 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

Aaron Harang vs. Wei-Yin Chen, 7:10pm

The M’s made a personnel move today, sending Blake Beavan down to Tacoma and recalling lefty Lucas Luetge. This season’s been an absolute disaster for Beavan; his attempt to change his arm slot has to rival Dustin Ackley’s abortive swing change for the least successful tweak in baseball. Since he came up in 2011, Blake Beavan actually adjusted his arm angle twice. He moved it upwards in 2012 too, but that didn’t seem to do much. The pre-2013 tweak got more attention, in part because he went outside the org to work on the change and because it was thought that the change would help his consistency from pitch to pitch. During the spring, his delivery did seem to be more over-the-top, but the actual adjustment was fairly small. It was no bigger than his 2011-to-2012 change, and while it made his pitches move slightly differently, it certainly wasn’t a mechanical overhaul.

So far during the regular season, Beavan’s given away most of that increase in his vertical release point – it’s now pretty much exactly where it was in September of last year. More worryingly, while a more over-the-top delivery can produce a downward plane and reduce platoon splits, it hasn’t helped Beavan against *right* handed hitters. In his 2011 campaign, Beavan got killed by lefties (.370 wOBA), but held righties to a stingy .287 wOBA and a 4.30 FIP. That’s not great, especially as the wOBA was BABIP driven, but it’s not awful. In 2012, after increasing his vertical release point, his wOBA to righties was up to .319 while his wOBA against lefties remained terrible. So far in 2013, he’s gotten killed by right-handers. Beavan never struck out many righties, despite throwing plenty of sliders and curves, but his low BABIP may have been related to pop-ups and high flies he was able to generate. At this point, I might have Beavan go back to a much flatter, more low-3/4 arm angle and see if he’s able to get righties out again.* It’s also quite possible that his entire 1+ year record of being moderately troubling to right-handed hitters was a BABIP mirage, in which case there’s not a whole lot to do.

That’s an awful lot about a minor transaction, and I realize I probably write about Beavan too much as it is. But it’s actually odd how many similarities you can spot between Beavan and tonight’s Oriole starter, Wei-Yin Chen. Like Beavan, Chen’s been an extreme fly-ball pitcher – his 35.6% career GB rate is actually a tiny bit lower than Beavan’s 37.1%. He throws a four-seam fastball at 90-91mph, that’s generated a touch over 11″ of vertical movement, giving it the appearance of ‘rise.’ Beavan throws a four-seam fastball at 91mph getting just under 11″ of vertical movement this year. Sure, it’s not perfect as Chen’s a lefty and 90-91 from a lefty’s qualitatively different than 90-91 from a righty, but this illustrates just how fine the differences in command, deception and consistency are and the differences they can make in results. Chen struck out about 19% of the batters he faced last year, whereas Beavan…did not.

Chen’s K% is down so far this year, but he’s faced a pretty tough group of opponents: Tampa, Boston, the Yankees, the Dodgers and finally Oakland. Despite that, his RA is sterling and his FIP’s lower thanks to a drop in his Beavan-esque HR/9. That said, this is a better match-up for the M’s than Jason Hammel. It’s not a great match-up, and the Orioles line-up is still tough against a righty who’s giving up more hard contact than Brandon Maurer. I’m going to watch the Chris Davis at-bats through my fingers. OK, nevermind, this isn’t a great match-up at all. Aaron Harang looked sort of intriguing in his first start, but really, really looked like a guy who’d just been DFA’d by the Rockies recently. C’mon M’s. Poach a game.

1: Saunders, CF
2: Seager, 3B
3: Morales, DH
4: Morse, RF
5: Bay, LF
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Ackley, 2B
8: Montero, C
9: Andino, SS
SP: Harang

I’d be tempted to put Montero at 6th, but this line-up makes sense against a lefty like Chen.

Jimmy Gilheeney was excellent in his AAA debut, throwing 6+ shutout innings with 9 Ks. Nick Franklin went 3-3 and is now batting .410/.538/.623, which is a pretty decent batting line. He’s certainly making things interesting for the FO. Andrew Carraway gets the start tonight against Tucson – it’s his first appearance since losing his no-hit bid late in the game in Las Vegas. Taijuan Walker takes the hill for Jackson, Trevor Miller starts for High Desert and Tyler Pike gets the ball for Clinton. Good day in M’s prospect land.

* Since the beginning of 2012, Beavan’s used a sinker a lot more, and his four-seamer less often. Correlation is not causation and all of that, but the sinker’s generated terrible results. I suggested he throw it more going into 2012, so it’s not like it was a terrible idea…it’s just a terrible pitch. Going back to a four-seam/curve/change/slider repertoire couldn’t hurt, I suppose.

Comments

96 Responses to “Game 30, Orioles at Mariners”

  1. MrZDevotee on May 1st, 2013 6:09 pm

    This isn’t an awful lineup. Amazing how much better people slot into the lineup with Saunders back.

    The Bay-ster might be high for my liking, and I’d be tempted to reward Ackley for his recent tear (maybe Ackley-Seager-Saunders at the top?)… But overall, it’s SO MUCH less ugly than a lot of last year’s lineups.

    (Of course, I say this and it will directly lead to a shutout, or no-hitter against us. Sorry, everybody.)

    I’d just really love to win 2 series in a row. This one’s riding on you, Mr. Lemon Harangue!

  2. MrZDevotee on May 1st, 2013 6:12 pm

    NEWS: (from the curbside pickup department)… Mariners sign Corey Patterson to a minor league deal.

  3. stevemotivateir on May 1st, 2013 6:18 pm

    They signed him yesterday, MrZD. I believe Marc made note of it in the game preview. So thanks for nothin’! (kidding)

  4. henryv on May 1st, 2013 6:33 pm

    Beaven’s curve at his higher arm angle simply wasn’t getting a drop. I don’t know why this is. It may be that his curve is actually a slurve, and that when he put his arm angle further up, he couldn’t get the torque on the ball any longer.

  5. MrZDevotee on May 1st, 2013 6:48 pm

    Steve-
    But certainly that was news worth repeating! (er, okay… nevermind. *laugh*)

  6. HighlightsAt11 on May 1st, 2013 6:48 pm

    Patterson signed Monday and was posted a thread here.

    Patterson, a AAAA left handed bat, sent to extended spring training. Awaiting to hear his assignment. Likely to Raniers as Jackson roster.

    Effectively back for another tryout with the Mariners, as he didn’t make it out of 2010 spring training.

    12-04-09: Signed as a Free Agent with Mariners.
    03-31-10: Granted Free Agency.

  7. Jake on May 1st, 2013 6:50 pm

    Sadly, I think Leave it to Beavan, is being sent to Tacoma to stretch out for a starting role again. Harang may be DFA’ed after tonight (or his next start), and they don’t really have anyone else that could serve as a #5, spot starter.

  8. HighlightsAt11 on May 1st, 2013 6:51 pm

    Edits: “posted to a thread Monday on USS Mariner” and “To Tacoma as prospects not ready in Jackson?”

  9. HighlightsAt11 on May 1st, 2013 7:01 pm

    I guess it was yesterday Tuesday. I was at The Cave Singers show on Monday night!

    https://twitter.com/GregJohnsMLB/status/329330839248830464

  10. Jordan on May 1st, 2013 7:10 pm

    Effective immediately, Romero and Franklin should be called up to replace the DFA of Ibanez and reassignment of Smoak. At $4 million dollars Ibanez isn’t leaving just yet and as the headline to the Lee deal Smoak is not leaving for at least another month.

    Harang appears to be dead weight and Maurer needs to work on a change or curve. Unfortunately, as it has been repeated numerous times, there are simply no other viable options right now.

  11. stevemotivateir on May 1st, 2013 7:14 pm

    Romero’s played 9 games, only 4 of which have been in left field. He’s off to a great start, but it’s way too early to call him up.

    Franklin might be a bit early too, as he has just 17 games played. But man, he’s making a case for himself.

    I wonder if Sweeney or Carraway might get the call before too long. I would argue that they may be viable options.

  12. HighlightsAt11 on May 1st, 2013 7:20 pm

    Red Sox enjoying the services of Mike Carp. Pitch hitting for Ortiz, Carp goes yard.

    | AB 25 / H 12 / 2B 5 / 3B 2 / HR 2 / RBI 7 / BB 2 / KO 7 / BA .480/ OBP .519 / SLG 1.080 |

    Yeah, yeah, small sample size…whatever.

    Exactly why was Carp let go by the Mariners and what did they get in return?

  13. stevemotivateir on May 1st, 2013 7:21 pm

    Nice to see Jones suck with the glove.

  14. stevemotivateir on May 1st, 2013 7:22 pm

    Carp wouldn’t have done that here. If he was on this team, he’d be on the bench. Don’t get me wrong, I preferred him over Smoak, and never wanted Ibanez, but I’m happy that he has a better opportunity in Boston.

  15. HighlightsAt11 on May 1st, 2013 7:24 pm

    Give Nick a shot! As a fan I don’t care about the Super Two implications even in the FO might.

    Call him up before his BA goes below .400

  16. bookbook on May 1st, 2013 7:28 pm

    First blood! With Smoak coming up and 2 outs, Morse must have been tempted to barrel for home.

  17. HighlightsAt11 on May 1st, 2013 7:28 pm

    Bay Doubles! The M’s score with RISP and two outs. A rarity indeed!

  18. nickman66 on May 1st, 2013 7:30 pm

    Carp has been good so far in Boston. A .625 BABIP will do that, wow.

  19. HighlightsAt11 on May 1st, 2013 7:30 pm

    Great time for Ackley to keep his streak going.

  20. globalalpha on May 1st, 2013 7:31 pm

    Can’t blame Ackley for taking that ball. But man, would be nice to he the call.

  21. juneau_fan on May 1st, 2013 7:33 pm

    I’m trying to think of a player who didn’t leave the Mariners and become instantly more successful. And I don’t mean the Washburns who were hanging on by their toenails.

    At some point, the training staff has to look and that and wonder why. Of course, in Carp’s case, I’m sure it’s helpful to be on a team with better hitters.

  22. stevemotivateir on May 1st, 2013 7:35 pm

    I don’t think the FO cares about super two status so much. Saunders was on track for it last year (missed it by one day). Maurer would be in that discussion as well.

    I wouldn’t complain if they called up Franklin now, I just wonder if it would be wise to keep him in Tacoma a little longer, make sure he actually is ready. If he’s going to play short here, getting him more starts at short in Tacoma would make sense. I believe he’s only had 4 or 5 starts there this year.

  23. Jake on May 1st, 2013 7:42 pm

    Montero legged that one out!

  24. nickman66 on May 1st, 2013 7:42 pm

    Once again, a .625 BABIP for Carp. He had a nice streak for the M’s in 2011 as well. His peripherals are exactly the same. Expect massive regression.

  25. georgmi on May 1st, 2013 7:43 pm

    Wait, what? Is that even possible?

  26. stevemotivateir on May 1st, 2013 7:43 pm

    Wow. Who saw that coming?!

  27. GLS on May 1st, 2013 7:43 pm

    Montero with a triple! And you people doubt his running skills.

  28. juneau_fan on May 1st, 2013 7:44 pm

    Perhaps I’m crazy, but Monty’s stride looked a tiny bit longer there? Of course, now he needs to work on his slides.

  29. stevemotivateir on May 1st, 2013 7:46 pm

    Saunders! There we go

  30. poulsbohemian on May 1st, 2013 7:46 pm

    The words I never thought I’d hear, “Jesus Montero with a leadoff triple!” Wow.

    And well done, Saunders! RBI and steal.

  31. stevemotivateir on May 1st, 2013 7:50 pm

    Nice. Pour it on!

  32. terryoftacoma on May 1st, 2013 7:50 pm

    One of the major problems the Mariners have is their young players aren’t gtting it done. In many cases they have promoted them early before they figure things out. Franklin, and Romero should stay in Tacoma until they are ready. Say 500 or 600 AB’s at least. Sometimes you have a player that doesn’t need that much time at AAA but it’s more the exception. No real hurry to bring either up right now.

  33. stevemotivateir on May 1st, 2013 7:55 pm

    Wow, I’m listening to the Orioles broadcast through Japanese TV, and they just told an incredible story about Morse’s travels through MLB.

    Only problem is, it was completely wrong.

  34. stevemotivateir on May 1st, 2013 7:59 pm

    Franklin has 375 PA’s in Tacoma. I’d like to see him produce a little longer as well, especially at short if that’s indeed where he’ll play here. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he got the call relatively soon.

  35. HighlightsAt11 on May 1st, 2013 8:02 pm

    Can the pitcher please bat for Andino/Ryan?

  36. stevemotivateir on May 1st, 2013 8:04 pm

    WTF?! Smoak with a double off a lefty?

    Maybe he was hypnotized and thinks he’s someone else?

  37. juneau_fan on May 1st, 2013 8:07 pm

    Fear the Babysteps, Chen!

  38. HighlightsAt11 on May 1st, 2013 8:08 pm

    No DP Andino!

  39. msfanmike on May 1st, 2013 8:08 pm

    Looks like they pitched around Montero to get to Andino. He did a good job that AB laying off bad pitches.

  40. msfanmike on May 1st, 2013 8:09 pm

    No need to worry about the DP with2 outs, already.

  41. HighlightsAt11 on May 1st, 2013 8:10 pm

    That would be four outs…I guess.

  42. HighlightsAt11 on May 1st, 2013 8:12 pm

    Still trying to figure out how Andino made it on the M’s opening day roster. Did the front office make a clerical error?

  43. juneau_fan on May 1st, 2013 8:13 pm

    If this were an NL team, they’d say at least the lineup turned over.

  44. stevemotivateir on May 1st, 2013 8:14 pm

    Zunino’s really been struggling in Tacoma. 0-2 tonight, so far.

  45. stevemotivateir on May 1st, 2013 8:17 pm

    Wow. With two outs, and Triunfel at the plate, Peguero got caught stealing.

    Really wonder if that was on Peguero, or if Brown made that call.

  46. stevemotivateir on May 1st, 2013 8:18 pm

    Nice job Saunders

  47. HighlightsAt11 on May 1st, 2013 8:21 pm

    I wish to see Zunino develop into a long-term quality guy behind the plate. Whatever he can do with the bat is gravy.

  48. juneau_fan on May 1st, 2013 8:23 pm

    Damn it, Seager. At least he was a distraction so Saunders could steal a base.

  49. juneau_fan on May 1st, 2013 8:24 pm

    Another 0-2 count. I’m going crazy here.

  50. HighlightsAt11 on May 1st, 2013 8:26 pm

    Warm weather coming to the Pacific Northwest. Hope it hangs around for the next homestand.

  51. stevemotivateir on May 1st, 2013 8:26 pm

    Morse!!!!

  52. Slats on May 1st, 2013 8:27 pm

    Sea Beast!

  53. HighlightsAt11 on May 1st, 2013 8:27 pm

    Opportunity to improve those miserable RISP with 2-out numbers.

  54. HighlightsAt11 on May 1st, 2013 8:28 pm

    Morse on cue!

  55. HighlightsAt11 on May 1st, 2013 8:30 pm

    Chen with 90+ pitches in 4 innings. Bay making him work.

  56. MissouriMariner on May 1st, 2013 8:31 pm

    Makes him work and then looks at strike 3…

  57. MissouriMariner on May 1st, 2013 8:33 pm

    Is it just gameday or is this ump squeezing the pitcher a bit?

  58. HighlightsAt11 on May 1st, 2013 8:34 pm

    And I don’t want to be a jinx but after four innings Harang with a one-hitter, no walks on 51 pitches. I was not expecting that.

  59. HighlightsAt11 on May 1st, 2013 8:35 pm

    Lead off walk. I jinxed it.

  60. stevemotivateir on May 1st, 2013 8:35 pm

    Yeah, Andino blew that. Nice job by Ackley to nearly pull it off anyway.

  61. GLS on May 1st, 2013 8:38 pm

    Where did the “Sea Beast” moniker come from?

  62. spuuky on May 1st, 2013 8:39 pm

    Hey, I just got home. Did Jesus Montero really hit a triple? How many outfielders were badly injured on the play?

  63. seahopp on May 1st, 2013 8:45 pm

    Jones was only stunned for a moment on the triple.

  64. nvn8vbryce on May 1st, 2013 8:46 pm

    Can we hurry up and DFA Smoak please?

  65. juneau_fan on May 1st, 2013 8:51 pm

    Is it petty of me to just want to see the Mariners finish better than the Angels this season?

  66. spuuky on May 1st, 2013 8:54 pm

    To be honest, I want them to finish better than the Angels every season.

  67. WalterNeff on May 1st, 2013 9:00 pm

    uh-oh

  68. msfanmike on May 1st, 2013 9:02 pm

    Man, this is risky.

  69. msfanmike on May 1st, 2013 9:04 pm

    Phew!!!

  70. juneau_fan on May 1st, 2013 9:10 pm

    0-2 count on Seager, again, and I do believe he said “Fuck me.” Yes, sir, that would be right.

    Thank goodness Jones seems to have peanut butter in his glove tonight.

  71. G-Man on May 1st, 2013 9:13 pm

    Productive out!

  72. spuuky on May 1st, 2013 9:17 pm

    Harang with a “Quality Start”… to lower his ERA to 8.68. Hey, it works if the Mariners score 8 runs a game.

  73. msfanmike on May 1st, 2013 9:17 pm

    Sims has used the term “blueprint working” several times tonight and I don’t think he is just referring to this game.

    Interesting.

  74. juneau_fan on May 1st, 2013 9:22 pm

    Carter Capps is hilariously scarecrow-like.

  75. HighlightsAt11 on May 1st, 2013 9:23 pm

    I’ve heard of a “working blueprint” but to suggest the Mariner’s “blueprint is working” is just a wacky thing to say. Does mgmt pay Sim every time he repeats or exaggerates a cliche?

  76. HighlightsAt11 on May 1st, 2013 9:31 pm

    Ackley’s hitting streak is in danger. But at least he has made it on base, along with all the other M’s…except for Andino.

    Ryan is rotting/rooting on the bench while the Andino is rotting at bat and not the best in the field. Might as well put Ryan back in the lineup. At least the M’s will have a chance to turn a few more DP’s. Bob’s has had his opportunity but his adrenaline well has run dry.

  77. juneau_fan on May 1st, 2013 9:40 pm

    Isn’t the buffalo’s name Bob?

  78. HighlightsAt11 on May 1st, 2013 9:48 pm

    Capps is night and day. The previous inning he flew through the bottom of the order. Then this latest inning he sees the top/meat of the order. And they see him and then he’s gone.

  79. G-Man on May 1st, 2013 9:50 pm

    Is Capps just not a 2-inning guy?

  80. juneau_fan on May 1st, 2013 9:56 pm

    All we ask is one run in, Smoak. A walk, a groundball (not a DP) or a fly ball.

  81. juneau_fan on May 1st, 2013 9:56 pm

    Curse that man!

  82. spuuky on May 1st, 2013 9:56 pm

    I really want Smoak to not GIDP so that Ackley can extend his hit streak, even though hit streaks aren’t very meaningful.

  83. spuuky on May 1st, 2013 9:57 pm

    Sigh.

  84. WalterNeff on May 1st, 2013 9:57 pm

    KKHHAAANNNNN!!!

  85. SonOfZavaras on May 1st, 2013 10:00 pm

    Damn it, Smoak. You had that pitcher in ALL KINDS of trouble. I know it’s an 8-3 game, our favor…but you gave up that at-bat. You coulda hit 2-1.

  86. SonOfZavaras on May 1st, 2013 10:03 pm

    Ah, well…that’s splitting hairs about the Smoak at-bat, I guess. Nice win, guys. Love it when a few base hits get strung together.

  87. Westside guy on May 1st, 2013 10:10 pm

    Adding a non-sucky bat to the line-up does wonders…

  88. Ralph Malph on May 1st, 2013 10:12 pm

    4 games out of the wild card, baby!

  89. jak924 on May 2nd, 2013 8:46 am

    Anybody know what’s up with Zunino? Is he catching the Mariner hitting disease?

  90. Paul B on May 2nd, 2013 1:01 pm

    If Bay actually returns to being a useful hitter (which he was before joining the Mets in 2010), I’ll have to actually give Wedge credit. And I’ll get to imagine Mets fans saying, “why do they always get better when they leave?”

  91. Paul B on May 2nd, 2013 1:04 pm

    Anybody know what’s up with Zunino? Is he catching the Mariner hitting disease?

    His BA is low, but his slugging is only behind Franklin and Thames on the team.

    So maybe he’s swinging for the fences a little too much.

  92. Typical Idiot Fan on May 2nd, 2013 2:53 pm

    Anybody know what’s up with Zunino? Is he catching the Mariner hitting disease?

    Being exploited by breaking and offspeed pitches. In other words, he’s getting his first dose of “learning”. Gives us something to watch and proves he isn’t close to ready yet.

  93. TheMightyMariner on May 2nd, 2013 4:31 pm

    I’m liking Bay lately. The team seems to be showing signs of life too. Rotation spots 3,4,5 are problematic but still.

    I am hoping to see Ackley go to AAA and have someone else come up. Maybe not Franklin quite yet but someone. Never a fan of rushing anyone. Ackley is becoming a big concern (or is!). Maybe Truinfel gets a look?

  94. casey on May 2nd, 2013 4:42 pm

    how is Ackley “becoming a big concern” when he is hitting .355 with .400 slugging over the last 14 days. If he hits the same over the next two weeks think he should be hitting at the top of the order and us voting for him for allstar game not wasting his time in Tacoma. This comment is a head scratcher for me when he is also playing solid defence and is arguably our best base runner.

  95. jordan on May 2nd, 2013 4:54 pm

    I still think Ackley is going to be a .300 hitter and a .375OBP guy in the MLB.

  96. stevemotivateir on May 2nd, 2013 6:02 pm

    I am hoping to see Ackley go to AAA and have someone else come up. Maybe not Franklin quite yet but someone. Never a fan of rushing anyone. Ackley is becoming a big concern (or is!). Maybe Truinfel gets a look?

    Why would you want someone else? As Casey pointed out, he’s been hot for two weeks now, plays excellent defense, and offers speed. I fail to see what the concern is. Lack of power? I wouldn’t worry about that.

    If anyone needs to be replaced, it’s Ibanez and/or Andino. Triunfel might be worth a shot, but he K’s a lot and offers little in the way of defense. Franklin has 17 games played and only a handful of those were at short, so he probably isn’t ready just yet.

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