The Mariners Shot at .500 Runs Into New York
| MARINERS (18-20) | ΔMs | YANKEES (24-14) | EDGE | |
| HITTING (wOBA*) | -9.9 (23rd) | 1.7 | -9.7 (22nd) | Yankees |
| FIELDING (RBBIP) | 9.7 (6th) | 2.7 | -4.0 (20th) | Mariners |
| ROTATION (xRA) | 10.2 (8th) | 2.4 | 5.4 (10th) | Mariners |
| BULLPEN (xRA) | 2.1 (12th) | 1.4 | 11.0 (1st) | Yankees |
| OVERALL (RAA) | 12.1 (13th) | 8.2 | 2.6 (17th) | MARINERS |
It seems far-fetched for the Mariners to actually be rated a better team than the Yankees here. I don’t think it is. First, the above categories do not capture everything about a baseball team. They capture a lot, and they capture what I feel comfortable with, and am able to, quantify on my own.
Secondly, other systems agree that the Mariners have slightly under performed their record while the Yankees have over performed theirs. The gap between the two teams in actual standings is six games. Baseball Prospectus’ third-order standings, which uses expected runs scored and allowed adjusted for opponents has the two team just two games apart.
The Yankees are coming off a double header yesterday. Perhaps that little extra fatigue can play into the Mariners favor this series.
| Batter | PA | P/PA | Slash line | nBB | K (sw) | 1B/2B/3B/HR | Sw- | Ct+ | Qual+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M Saunders* | 44 | 4.1 | .289/.386/.474 | 6 | 13 (9) | 8 / 1 / 0 / 2 | 87 | 95 | 119 |
| K Seager* | 44 | 4.2 | .243/.318/.351 | 5 | 10 (6) | 7 / 1 / 0 / 1 | 86 | 107 | 91 |
| K Morales^ | 38 | 3.7 | .324/.395/.500 | 4 | 8 (8) | 7 / 3 / 0 / 1 | 101 | 91 | 113 |
| M Morse | 36 | 3.8 | .219/.324/.438 | 4 | 11 (7) | 4 / 1 / 0 / 2 | 108 | 84 | 74 |
| D Ackley* | 36 | 4.3 | .206/.250/.294 | 2 | 10 (3) | 6 / 0 / 0 / 1 | 72 | 106 | 79 |
| J Smoak^ | 33 | 4.1 | .292/.485/.417 | 9 | 6 (6) | 4 / 3 / 0 / 0 | 80 | 106 | 138 |
| J Bay | 29 | 4.2 | .217/.345/.522 | 5 | 5 (4) | 2 / 1 / 0 / 2 | 85 | 97 | 89 |
| J Montero | 24 | 3.6 | .182/.250/.409 | 2 | 5 (4) | 2 / 0 / 1 / 1 | 105 | 105 | 140 |
| R Andino | 20 | 3.5 | .056/.150/.056 | 2 | 6 (2) | 1 / 0 / 0 / 0 | 85 | 103 | 86 |
It’s rather remarkable how little the Mariners have gotten out of their short stops hitting. You know how bad Brendan Ryan has been? He’s actually been worse than you think. And Robert Andino has been even worse than that. While manning the short stop position, Ryan has put up a .123/.200/.123 batting line. Andino checks in at .086/.179/.086.
Neither have an extra base hit out of the position. Those are the only two that have played short stop so far this season. I wouldn’t count on that being the case for very much longer.
According to wRC+ Mariner short stops as a collective have been outhit so far by the pitching staffs for the Brewers, Reds, Dodgers, and Braves. Outside of pitchers hitting, Mariners short stops have the league’s worst wRC+ at 7 according to FanGraphs. By Baseball-Reference, which has a more accurate cutoff, their relative OPS+ is -9.
They’re bad. That’s what I’m attempting to convey. Really, truly, terrible.
| Batter | PA | P/PA | Slash line | nBB | SO (sw) | 1B/2B/3B/HR | Sw- | Ct+ | Qual+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R Cano* | 55 | 3.4 | .255/.286/.455 | 0 | 6 (4) | 9 / 2 / 0 / 3 | 118 | 115 | 88 |
| B Gardner* | 53 | 4.3 | .229/.302/.333 | 5 | 13 (12) | 7 / 3 / 1 / 0 | 100 | 108 | 84 |
| V Wells | 50 | 3.1 | .286/.300/.469 | 1 | 6 (5) | 11 / 0 / 0 / 3 | 119 | 100 | 120 |
| L Overbay* | 48 | 3.9 | .273/.333/.591 | 4 | 7 (6) | 4 / 5 / 0 / 3 | 104 | 105 | 104 |
| I Suzuki* | 46 | 3.9 | .267/.319/.422 | 1 | 6 (6) | 8 / 2 / 1 / 1 | 115 | 110 | 92 |
| J Nix | 45 | 4.0 | .308/.435/.385 | 6 | 12 (7) | 9 / 3 / 0 / 0 | 90 | 102 | 125 |
| T Hafner* | 39 | 4.1 | .206/.325/.235 | 5 | 10 (7) | 6 / 1 / 0 / 0 | 98 | 95 | 64 |
| C Stewart | 36 | 3.6 | .250/.278/.344 | 2 | 4 (2) | 7 / 0 / 0 / 1 | 106 | 108 | 48 |
| C Nelson | 33 | 4.2 | .188/.212/.250 | 1 | 9 (9) | 4 / 2 / 0 / 0 | 103 | 95 | 82 |
I won’t presume on your behalf but I find it quite amusing that Vernon Wells is now a valued hitting asset to the Yankees after being nothing more than a financial drain on the Angels. Which he will continue to be to the tune of $18.6 million next year after $9.5 million this season.
Does $18.6 million have a tune? I suppose it depends on which side of that dump truck full of hundreds you’re standing. It can’t be a peppy tune for the Angels. Hey, did you know the Angels aren’t playing well at all this season? Haha, Angels.
| MARINERS | ΔMs | YANKEES | EDGE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFIELD | 5.1 (11th) | 1.9 | -5.4 (23rd) | Mariners |
| OUTFIELD | 4.6 (11th) | 0.8 | 1.4 (15th) | Mariners |
| RBBIP | 0.295 (7th) | -.002 | 0.311 (19th) | Mariners |
| OVERALL | 9.7 (6th) | 2.7 | -4.0 (20th) | MARINERS |
Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) puts the Mariners’ defense at six runs below average to date. Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) states they’re five below. I say they’re nearly 10 above. Which is more right? I don’t know. But I’ll point out that the Mariners’ pitching staff currently has only a .278 batting average on balls in play, which is the seventh lowest in baseball. And the fielders have been charged with only 12 errors, tied for third lowest with the Tigers.
So if they’re not committing many mistakes and they aren’t allowing a lot of balls to fall in for hits, is the stuff on the fringe, turning double plays and the like, enough to weigh them down so much?
14 MAY 16:05 – CC SABATHIA* vs FELIX HERNANDEZ
The Yankees are rolling out three impressive starters in this series in terms of name recognition. And historically, all three have been good to great pitchers. But so far in 2013, none of the three have actually been dealing. CC Sabathia’s strikeout and ground ball rates have fallen to it’s lowest rate in the pitch f/x era.
On the other hand, by xRA, Felix (duh), Hisashi and Aaron are the three Mariner starters who’ve been better than the AL average. All three have strikeout rates above 20% and walk rates at 6% or lower.
15 MAY 16:05 – PHIL HUGHES vs HISASHI IWAKUMA
Phil Hughes is getting smacked around to the tune of a .342 RBBIP (reached base [hits+errors] on balls in play), which is obviously partly the blame New York’s defense, but also reflective of Hughes’ high line drive and pulled fly ball against rates.
16 MAY 16:05 – ANDY PETTITTE* vs AARON HARANG
Pettitte’s strikeouts are down a couple notches, his walks are up and his line drives are up. His contact rate has risen from 78% to over 80%.
Aaron Harang last season started off 56% of hitters with a strike. That’s up to 61% this season.
| Reliever | BF | Str+ | nBB | Ct- | K(sw) | GB+ | HR | Qual- | LI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B Beavan | 48 | 100 | 4 | 98 | 8 (6) | 94 | 2 | 104 | 0.5 |
| C Capps | 42 | 102 | 1 | 90 | 13 (11) | 57 | 3 | 134 | 1.1 |
| H Noesi | 39 | 102 | 2 | 107 | 6 (4) | 51 | 0 | 126 | 0.3 |
| T Wilhelmsen | 38 | 115 | 1 | 98 | 9 (6) | 130 | 0 | 107 | 1.4 |
| Y Medina | 35 | 96 | 3 | 98 | 12 (7) | 136 | 0 | 53 | 0.4 |
| O Perez* | 31 | 97 | 4 | 72 | 13 (11) | 113 | 1 | 123 | 1.1 |
| C Furbush* | 29 | 103 | 2 | 79 | 14 (11) | 113 | 1 | 91 | 1.1 |
| Reliever | BF | Str+ | nBB | Ct- | K(sw) | GB+ | HR | Qual- | LI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M Rivera | 50 | 114 | 2 | 102 | 10 (8) | 101 | 1 | 93 | 2.3 |
| D Robertson | 48 | 102 | 4 | 88 | 16 (12) | 121 | 2 | 81 | 1.7 |
| A Warren | 46 | 99 | 5 | 103 | 10 (10) | 124 | 1 | 83 | 0.6 |
| D Phelps | 41 | 98 | 6 | 103 | 14 (10) | 68 | 2 | 154 | 1.5 |
| S Kelley | 36 | 102 | 1 | 93 | 15 (10) | 91 | 1 | 64 | 0.6 |
| B Logan* | 28 | 100 | 0 | 95 | 10 (7) | 113 | 1 | 81 | 1.3 |
| J Chamberlain | 23 | 116 | 0 | 102 | 3 (3) | 102 | 0 | 76 | 2.0 |
Getting rid of Shawn Kelley was stupid. So incredibly stupid. He has 24 strikeouts and four walks allowed. He’s allowed a couple too many home runs and that’s what the Mariners hated about it, what the Mariners seemingly could not see past. It’s a blind spot they have that’s led to them discarding useful pieces like Jaso, Delabar, and Kelley for underwhelming returns. It frustrates me.
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This actually made me laugh out loud. Which is probably good, since the alternative is to weep.
BTW, Yankees – Kuma is ours and you can’t have him.
If you look at the standings the M’s should get creamed. I’m not going to look at them.
You have to feel good about having Felix and Kuma starting this series.
Matthew, I just looked at today’s lineup and I noticed one factor you are consistently not including in these comparisons – the manager disadvantage.
Wedge is – I’m totally serious – starting Ibañez tonight against Sabathia. He’s starting a guy who’s been helpless against lefties… against one of the better left-handed pitchers in the game.
Now, I admit I’m sorta trying to be funny. But really, Wedge’s decision to DH Ibañez instead of Montero or Smoak probably has a non-trivial impact on the probability Felix will win tonight.
But Westy-
His crafty veteran grittiness will be in full effect against the Evil Empire that didn’t want him back after last season! You can almost hear the annoying little blonde kid from “Shane” yelling “Raouuul!”… “Come back, Raouuulll!?”
He’s going to get a tremendous uptick in wily-ness tonight, and heroic “good-guy-ness”.
Probably 0-4 with 3 K’s and a soft roll-over groundball to 2B… Instead of 0-4 with 4 K’s…
Ibanez is returning to his former team so that must mean he’s going to go 2-3 with a double, home run, and a walk. Of course that one out he makes will be with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 9th and the game tied.
The one argument one might make is that Yankee stadium is a place where Ibanez has enjoyed success. Now, I wouldn’t make that argument, but Wedgie…
Hehe MrZ –
“Come back, Raul! Joe’s got things for you to do!”
And from Raul…
“Tell your mother… tell your mother there are no more bats in this valley.”
(I love that movie, even though it’s absurdly cheesy in spots)
“Getting rid of Shawn Kelley was stupid.”
So is thinking that ‘shortstop’ is two words 🙂
It’s pretty funny how Wedge never fails to start someone when they are facing their old team for the first time. No I don’t have stats to back this up and I don’t care to look into it but I swear he has a 100% success rate in these situations.
Wedge is putting Ibanez in a position to suck-cede.
I wonder what the record for fewest extra base hits from the shortstop position is, or the record for most games without having one…
I don’t remember what position he was playing for us (I’ve blanked it out), But beloved Mariner Icon Willie F. Bloomquist went a year between extra base hits…
So I honestly don’t know the rule… Can you DH for someone else besides the pitcher?
How funny would that be… We DH for Ryan and let Felix hit.
We could use some more eyes-closed-foot-off-the-ground Grand Slams… (one of my favorite Mariner hits of all time– courtesy the King!)