Mariners End Road Woes Streak and Continue to Minnesota
| MARINERS (23-31) | ΔMs | TWINS (23-28) | EDGE | |
| HITTING (wOBA*) | -9.7 (20th) | -0.1 | -26.4 (25th) | Mariners |
| FIELDING (RBBIP) | -4.4 (19th) | 6.1 | -16.3 (27th) | Mariners |
| ROTATION (xRA) | 12.0 (7th) | -1.2 | -22.7 (26th) | Mariners |
| BULLPEN (xRA) | 6.2 (6th) | -0.2 | 10.4 (2nd) | Twins |
| OVERALL (RAA) | 4.1 (16th) | 4.6 | -54.9 (28th) | MARINERS |
So close to taking three of four against the Padres which would have been more encouraging than a series split.
Carlos Triunfel might already be lost in the infield shuffle on the Mariners. Brendan Ryan has surged offensively and is putting on a defensive show as though his baseball life depended on it. And early though it is, Nick Franklin already seems ready to assume the bulk of second base playing time. I realize this will probably be the peak of how we feel about Franklin, but so what? The Mariners are 23-31. Let’s just enjoy this for as long as it will last.
| Batter | PA | P/PA | Slash line | nBB | K (sw) | 1B/2B/3B/HR | Sw- | Ct+ | Qual+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Morales^ | 58 | 3.6 | .375/.397/.661 | 2 | 12 (9) | 11 / 7 / 0 / 3 | 108 | 96 | 146 |
| K Seager* | 54 | 3.9 | .260/.315/.420 | 4 | 8 (6) | 7 / 5 / 0 / 1 | 95 | 109 | 105 |
| B Ryan | 45 | 3.8 | .333/.378/.571 | 3 | 9 (7) | 8 / 4 / 0 / 2 | 101 | 101 | 136 |
| M Saunders* | 45 | 3.8 | .098/.178/.122 | 4 | 19 (14) | 3 / 1 / 0 / 0 | 101 | 83 | 68 |
| R Ibanez* | 39 | 3.9 | .270/.308/.568 | 2 | 8 (6) | 5 / 2 / 0 / 3 | 91 | 106 | 149 |
| M Morse | 39 | 4.0 | .229/.333/.314 | 4 | 7 (6) | 7 / 0 / 0 / 1 | 110 | 87 | 83 |
| J Smoak^ | 34 | 4.1 | .226/.294/.452 | 3 | 10 (8) | 4 / 1 / 0 / 2 | 95 | 99 | 88 |
| E Chavez* | 33 | 3.6 | .303/.303/.515 | 0 | 0 (0) | 7 / 1 / 0 / 2 | 106 | 119 | 127 |
| D Ackley* | 31 | 4.0 | .071/.161/.071 | 3 | 6 (2) | 2 / 0 / 0 / 0 | 81 | 110 | 59 |
| J Bay | 30 | 4.1 | .240/.367/.480 | 5 | 7 (6) | 4 / 0 / 0 / 2 | 87 | 87 | 131 |
| K Shoppach | 27 | 3.5 | .080/.148/.200 | 2 | 12 (11) | 1 / 0 / 0 / 1 | 105 | 67 | 39 |
Jesus Montero and Dustin Ackley have been recently relegated to Tacoma to work out their hitting woes. I don’t think Michael Saunders is next, but I think that because frankly the team doesn’t really have that option given their outfield depth and preferences. They need Saunders up and able to anchor center field, but he sure has been lost at the plate for the past couple weeks.
| Batter | PA | P/PA | Slash line | nBB | SO (sw) | 1B/2B/3B/HR | Sw- | Ct+ | Qual+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J Willingham | 59 | 4.5 | .235/.356/.510 | 8 | 16 (10) | 6 / 2 / 0 / 4 | 82 | 92 | 91 |
| J Morneau* | 58 | 3.6 | .260/.345/.300 | 7 | 10 (8) | 11 / 2 / 0 / 0 | 107 | 101 | 101 |
| J Mauer* | 53 | 4.4 | .286/.352/.490 | 4 | 12 (10) | 10 / 1 / 0 / 3 | 90 | 105 | 89 |
| A Hicks^ | 51 | 4.2 | .224/.255/.449 | 2 | 13 (8) | 6 / 2 / 0 / 3 | 92 | 105 | 77 |
| P Florimon^ | 49 | 4.1 | .256/.347/.372 | 6 | 10 (6) | 8 / 2 / 0 / 1 | 85 | 92 | 93 |
| J Carroll | 49 | 3.9 | .196/.245/.217 | 3 | 8 (5) | 8 / 1 / 0 / 0 | 91 | 118 | 78 |
| R Doumit^ | 46 | 4.2 | .244/.326/.439 | 5 | 6 (5) | 6 / 2 / 0 / 2 | 91 | 109 | 107 |
| C Parmelee* | 38 | 4.2 | .278/.316/.444 | 2 | 9 (6) | 8 / 0 / 0 / 2 | 105 | 97 | 118 |
| B Dozier | 38 | 4.3 | .200/.263/.314 | 3 | 8 (7) | 5 / 1 / 0 / 1 | 98 | 106 | 106 |
| E Escobar^ | 25 | 3.8 | .045/.200/.045 | 2 | 4 (4) | 1 / 0 / 0 / 0 | 96 | 105 | 49 |
| T Plouffe | 22 | 3.5 | .333/.455/.444 | 4 | 2 (1) | 4 / 2 / 0 / 0 | 70 | 101 | 145 |
A bright spot for the Twins has to be Joe Mauer’s performance this year. Still mostly at catcher, — he’s lasted there longer than most people probably thought he would — Mauer is posting one of the better offensive lines of his career. His OPS+ is currently the second highest it has ever been, only behind his MVP 2009 season.
Of course there’s a catch and in this case it’s that Mauer’s line is being driven by an incredibly inflated BABIP. Mauer is a good line drive hitter and he earns a higher-than-normal BABIP, but nobody’s true talent is a .420 BABIP, where Mauer is currently. He is also showing troubling signs with a meaningfully lower contact rate and a strikeout rate double his career norm.
| MARINERS | ΔMs | TWINS | EDGE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFIELD | -1.5 (17th) | 0.4 | 0.4 (16th) | Twins |
| OUTFIELD | -2.9 (21st) | 5.7 | -16.7 (28th) | Mariners |
| RBBIP | 0.311 (18th) | -.005 | 0.317 (23rd) | Mariners |
| OVERALL | -4.4 (19th) | 6.1 | -16.3 (27th) | MARINERS |
Dead cat bounce?
31 MAY 17:10 – MIKE PELFREY vs HISASHI IWAKUMA
01 JUN 10:10 – KEVIN CORREIA vs AARON HARANG
Where’s the black (denoting overall) bar for Kevin Correia’s Whiff% (i.e. contact rate)? It’s hidden by the -2z line. That’s how poor Correia has been at missing bats. While league average the past two seasons has been hitters making contact 80.6% of the time against starters, Correia’s posted rates near 88%.
02 JUN 11:10 – SCOTT DIAMOND* vs TBD
Diamond is interesting and not just fr the reason that he’s currently the only Twins starting pitcher who has managed to avoid being below average. Diamond is one of the very rare American collegiate undrafted free agents to have made it to the Major Leagues.
But Diamond will have to square off opposite the always vaunted TBD.
| Reliever | BF | Str+ | nBB | Ct- | K(sw) | GB+ | HR | Qual- | LI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C Furbush* | 50 | 103 | 4 | 92 | 14 (9) | 77 | 2 | 127 | 0.9 |
| Y Medina | 40 | 87 | 5 | 95 | 9 (5) | 139 | 0 | 70 | 1.8 |
| T Wilhelmsen | 38 | 95 | 3 | 98 | 7 (6) | 121 | 0 | 108 | 2.6 |
| C Capps | 36 | 104 | 2 | 87 | 12 (9) | 61 | 1 | 86 | 1.6 |
| O Perez* | 36 | 100 | 4 | 90 | 15 (11) | 79 | 1 | 133 | 1.1 |
| L Luetge* | 32 | 101 | 3 | 101 | 7 (5) | 143 | 2 | 102 | 0.6 |
| D Farquhar | 30 | 98 | 2 | 96 | 13 (11) | 105 | 0 | 92 | 0.3 |
Should the Mariners trade Wilhelmsen this summer? He won’t be needed this season, he’ll be 30 soon and his sparkling ERA and now established closer bona fides are the stuff that used to get teams to trade away a haul. Two cautions I have before endorsing a trade idea are that I’m not sure teams are still that compulsive when it comes to relievers at the trade deadline and that I’m not worried about Wilhelmsen’s dip in strikeouts. Pretty much nothing has changed in Wilhelmsen from last year to this. His pitch speeds are the same, as are his overall contact and strike rates.
His strikeouts are back down to 2011 levels, but the walks are also lower and these things fluctuate. As good of measurements as strikeouts and walks are for pitchers, they’re still vulnerable to variation, especially when you deal with samples of 100 or so batters faced.
| Reliever | BF | Str+ | nBB | Ct- | K(sw) | GB+ | HR | Qual- | LI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Swarzak | 78 | 101 | 5 | 104 | 13 (9) | 94 | 2 | 93 | 1.0 |
| J Burton | 67 | 107 | 6 | 93 | 14 (12) | 96 | 1 | 75 | 2.1 |
| J Roenicke | 65 | 87 | 9 | 101 | 11 (8) | 82 | 2 | 66 | 1.3 |
| R Pressly | 62 | 101 | 5 | 110 | 11 (9) | 80 | 0 | 92 | 0.6 |
| B Duensing* | 54 | 96 | 5 | 99 | 10 (6) | 101 | 0 | 111 | 1.7 |
| C Fien | 47 | 101 | 3 | 89 | 13 (11) | 98 | 3 | 101 | 1.4 |
| G Perkins* | 41 | 110 | 3 | 100 | 17 (11) | 64 | 2 | 118 | 2.1 |
| C Thielbar* | 20 | 105 | 2 | 91 | 6 (5) | 75 | 0 | 41 | 0.2 |
Glen Perkins, onetime starter, now closer for the Twins is the odd left-handed duck who avoids any meaningful platoon splits. In fact, over his career he’s run better strikeout versus walk rates while facing righties than while facing lefties.
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10 Responses to “Mariners End Road Woes Streak and Continue to Minnesota”
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Brendan Ryan’s recent defensive play has been phenomenal. And is bat is “better”. Are there any measurements to show that his offensive woes made his defense somewhat less spectacular? Or put another way that his better batting made his defense even better?
The solution is to trade Ryan at the peak of his value…and it would be interesting to see what other MLB teams place on such value. Ryan is 31, and this team is still in a rebuilding mode. The M’s seem to love Miller, and it is inevitable that Ryan’s bat will cool again.
Ryan wouldn’t get us anything useful in return. Teams know exactly what they are getting with him.
In other news, Andino cleared waivers and is headed to Tacoma.
Jordan…but, but, but, Ryan is the best defender in MLB…
For what playoff contending teams would Ryan add real value compared to present options? Maybe, somewhat hilariously, the Yankees. Can’t think of any others. If someone wants defensive insurance, they might toss us a C+ A ball pitcher or something, but that’s not really worth it.
I actually believe that Brendan Ryan would be a considerable improvement for the Cardinals but I doubt they would give much up to get him considering they’ve already given him away once.
In regards to Franklin, yesterday wasn’t the peak, it was just the beginning…my only concern is his bizarre health history, and whether it follows him into the majors.
Let’s let have Miller or Triunfel hit in the major leagues before we get rid of Ryan. Right now Ryan’s our best shortstop even with his lousy offense, and two weeks of good hitting will not fool anyone as far as giving us a better trade.
p.s. The mariners need to play .550 ball to even reach 500.