Game 71, Mariners at Angels

marc w · June 17, 2013 at 6:00 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

Aaron Harang vs. Jason Vargas, 7:10pm

The deal made perfect sense when it happened, and with the benefit of a half-season’s hindsight, it looks like one of the fairly rare cases wherein both teams ‘win.’ The Angels rotation had a FIP of 4.33, good for 21st in the league – and that was *despite* getting a full year from ace Jered Weaver. The back of the rotation fell apart as Ervin Santana and Dan Haren gopher-balled their way into terrible seasons, and Garrett Richards continued to confound the Angels (and me) by being crappy. But their offense looked great, and they added Josh Hamilton in the off-season. They used surplus corner IFs to cover their weakness, and it’s worked out great. Jason Vargas has been an excellent starter, having already eclipsed last season’s low fWAR and with an even better RA than last year’s. With the injury to Weaver, the Angels needed Vargas to be consistent, and he’s been exactly that.

The Mariners’ offense has been terrible since the dawn of the Bavasi era, and they needed an upgrade. They thought Kendrys Morales could not only replicate his rate stats, but improve upon them (adjusted for park/context, of course) the further from his injury he got. So far, so good. Morales has a slightly better wOBA and wRC+ playing every day than he did last year for LA. The M’s offense isn’t good by any stretch of the imagination, but their team wOBA starts with a ’3′ for the first time in a while, albeit barely (it’s at .300 on the dot). They needed a middle-of-the-order player to help them cash in when Seager and Ackley (ha ha…ha..ha) got on base, and he’s done so.

Unfortunately for both teams, there’s quite a gap between a trade working out perfectly and an entire roster working out perfectly. The Angels FIP is just a tiny bit better than last year, and Joe Blanton has inherited Santana’s HR problems. Jered Weaver went down, and Richards once again failed to grab the rotation spot that I thought he’d take back in 2011 or so. The M’s offense is better, but still not good enough, and unfortunately for them, injuries have wiped out much of the pitching depth they had when they agreed to trade Vargas. No one was ‘wrong’ here and both teams would probably make the deal again today. But both teams are waaaay out of the playoff race.

Vargas is much the same guy we remember from his days in Seattle with one exception: he’s stopped throwing his slider/cutter to lefties as much and has replaced it with a curveball.

1: Chavez, RF
2: Franklin, 2B
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, DH
5: Morse, 1B
6: Ibanez, LF
7: Zunino, C
8: Saunders, CF
9: Triunfel, SS
SP: Harang

The Jackson Generals lost a 1-0 game today; Anthony Fernandez was the hard-luck loser.

Gonzaga alum Tyler Olsen makes his debut for Everett tonight.

A number of M’s draft picks signed, but there’s word that the M’s landed their biggest target – 2nd rounder Austin Wilson. His slot value was just over $1m, but as a guy many thought could’ve gone in the 1st round, it’ll be interesting to hear what the M’s had to commit to get his signature. Here’s hoping he suits up for Everett very soon.

Comments

101 Responses to “Game 71, Mariners at Angels”

  1. SonOfZavaras on June 17th, 2013 6:42 pm

    Not 100% confirmed, but Divish says he hears reports that Wilson’s signing a deal for $1.5 million.

    I would’ve been happy to get him at #12, that we were able to land him at #49 overall was some serious cake.

    Having him in Everett would really make that an interesting roster.

  2. G-Man on June 17th, 2013 6:58 pm

    “Third time’s the charm” is one of Krueger’s keys to the game, referring to Harang pitching well the last 2 games. But doesn’t that expression refer to two failures and hoping for a sucess next?

    Whatever.

  3. Westside guy on June 17th, 2013 7:24 pm

    Harang is really looking good in inning #1.

    If you’re an Angel’s fan, that is.

  4. Westside guy on June 17th, 2013 7:28 pm

    E-6 for Aybar!

  5. Westside guy on June 17th, 2013 7:30 pm

    Who is this “Michael Morris” Blowers keeps talking about?

  6. juneau_fan on June 17th, 2013 7:42 pm

    Maybe Morris is like Bernandez…

  7. djw on June 17th, 2013 7:43 pm

    Morse’s defensive incompetence can’t be hidden at First Base, evidently. (Surprisingly nice play by Triunfel…)

  8. Westside guy on June 17th, 2013 7:43 pm

    Dear Mariners,

    Please put Michael Morse on the DL. He’s hurting the team, even at first base.

    - Westside guy

  9. pgreyy on June 17th, 2013 7:43 pm

    ooof

  10. Westside guy on June 17th, 2013 7:44 pm

    Crap, I thought Saunders was going to get that. Another three inches and he’d have snagged it.

  11. seasick on June 17th, 2013 7:48 pm

    I wonder how many requests Harang has had to pitch in the home run derby this year.

  12. Westside guy on June 17th, 2013 7:49 pm

    Good news is, I suppose, that we might get to see Erasmo Ramirez sooner…

  13. msfanmike on June 17th, 2013 7:51 pm

    The Angels don’t appear to be too intimidated by this collection of Mariner talent.

  14. juneau_fan on June 17th, 2013 7:55 pm

    Something tells me that the wheels won’t fall off for Vargas like they did when he pitched for the M’s.

  15. Westside guy on June 17th, 2013 7:55 pm

    NICK!

  16. Slats on June 17th, 2013 7:55 pm

    Franklin!

  17. juneau_fan on June 17th, 2013 7:56 pm

    I’ll take the reverse curse on Vargas.

  18. pgreyy on June 17th, 2013 7:56 pm

    NICK!

    (See, every so often things go right for this team…if only ever so briefly…and then to only snatch it back away from us later like Lucy and the football to Charlie Brown.)

  19. msfanmike on June 17th, 2013 7:56 pm

    Atta boy Nick!

  20. Bodhizefa on June 17th, 2013 7:57 pm

    Send Harang or Saunders to the pen and promote Erasmo for gosh sakes! How many more shellackings do we have to watch from our mid and back rotation guys? It’s awful and it’s embarrassing.

  21. dantheman on June 17th, 2013 8:00 pm

    I’m wondering if someone is still not convinced that Franklin would be a significant upgrade.

  22. juneau_fan on June 17th, 2013 8:02 pm

    The weather gods are with me. Every time Harang is pitching, the weather advisory goes off on the TV, blocking out the inning.

  23. Bodhizefa on June 17th, 2013 8:04 pm

    To those who would deal Nick Franklin if Ackley ever starts hitting again… I say hell no.

  24. G-Man on June 17th, 2013 8:05 pm

    “Who is this ‘Michael Morris’ Blowers keeps talking about?”

    Rizzs says it too – like it’s a two-syllable name. Drives me nuts.

  25. Westside guy on June 17th, 2013 8:12 pm

    Nothing against Franklin – but don’t get caught up in small sample size theater.

    Ackley was great when he first came up too.

  26. poordispatcher on June 17th, 2013 8:15 pm

    Franklin looks like Wolverine with a helmet…

  27. juneau_fan on June 17th, 2013 8:15 pm

    I’m sorry, but Blowers just speaks like an uneducated rube to me. He also says ‘in’eresting’ for interesting.

    Drives. Me. Mad.

  28. seasick on June 17th, 2013 8:19 pm

    Now that’s ineresting. I like Blowers but can’t stand Sims.

  29. Bodhizefa on June 17th, 2013 8:21 pm

    I’m not sure I get the distaste for Sims and Blowers that I occasionally run across in here. Blowers is fantastic at situational description and he’s also fairly adept at giving realistic scouting reports on players from both sides. Sure, he’s kind of dry, but he’s one of the better booth guys I’ve come across for pure insight. He reminds me a lot of Steve Stone.

    And Sims is rarely overbearing while also being a positive drum-beating voice for the M’s. he’s a homer, but he’s realistic in his homerism (if that makes any sense).

  30. Westside guy on June 17th, 2013 8:22 pm

    I like them both overall.

  31. californiamariner on June 17th, 2013 8:27 pm

    Harang is lucky this is only at 4. Please bring up Erasmo!

  32. Bodhizefa on June 17th, 2013 8:29 pm

    Yes, Westside, I’m well aware that Ackley did well in his first month and a half. But Franklin’s approach is already light years beyond Ackley’s even back then (Ackley often took early strikes right down the middle, and it was confusing for me at the time and would eventually become maddening). Franklin will struggle at some point, but his approach seems tailor fit to give him a fighting chance to work out of it. Ackley’s approach of taking too many hittable strikes was always asking for trouble. (Yes, it’s hindsight, but it’s also true)

  33. r-gordon-7 on June 17th, 2013 8:29 pm

    I like both Blowers & Sims, too – much more so than Rizzs over on the radio side…

  34. californiamariner on June 17th, 2013 8:32 pm

    As far as the announcers I think it’s far easier to like them when you have a winning team and far easier to dislike them when you’re tired of watching losses :)

  35. f2aler on June 17th, 2013 8:34 pm

    The Franklin debate is largely a product of the Supreme Court of the Marineers Blogosphere issuing a poorly reasoned majority opinion (had to be a dissent somewhere) that Franklin was not an “impact prospect”. This conclusion was never really supported by any evidence or at least not any I am aware of.

    Obviously the jury is still out on Franklin, but from my cursory review Franklin seems to have substantially more power and patience at the plate than Ackley and if Ackley is really a better prospect than Franklin knowing what we know now, I’m curious to hear it.

  36. dantheman on June 17th, 2013 8:35 pm

    “Small sample size theater”?? I would find this excuse for questionable and/or bad analysis far more meaningful if you would define when we cross from “small sample size theater” to “legitimate size theater”. Regardless of sample size, Franklin already has 3 homeruns in 65 at bats compared to Ackley’s 1 HR (and .205 BA) in 156 at bats.

  37. Westside guy on June 17th, 2013 8:49 pm

    I think the complaint was that Franklin wasn’t a shortstop defensively, and people weren’t convinced his bat would play in the majors.

    So far so good with regard to his bat – but seriously, it’s way too soon to declare him a quality major leaguer.

  38. Westside guy on June 17th, 2013 8:50 pm
  39. pgreyy on June 17th, 2013 8:57 pm

    I grew up in Wisconsin…was a Brewers fan for many years. We were only good once or twice…but I loved listening to Bob Uecker on the radio call.

    Some announcers are better at filling in the empty innings than others.

    (And to be honest, the only time that I really, really dislike Rizzs is when they’ve got a kid in the booth with him. Other than that, I can handle it. I’m made of tough stuff. I was once a Brewers fan.)

  40. juneau_fan on June 17th, 2013 8:58 pm

    Sweet.

  41. juneau_fan on June 17th, 2013 8:59 pm

    Groan.

  42. Westside guy on June 17th, 2013 8:59 pm

    I like the new radio guy too – good radio voice.

    And we got lucky, so to speak, that they held Trout – he would’ve scored.

  43. pgreyy on June 17th, 2013 9:00 pm

    …and I’ve been an M’s fan for nearly as many painful years.

    Yeesh.

  44. stevemotivateir on June 17th, 2013 9:00 pm

    Is it really that hard to determine what a small sample size is? It’s been discussed here many times before. Some suggest 300 PA’s, some 500, some even more. But there shouldn’t be any question that less than 100 is small.

    Nobody’s trying to downplay Franklin’s early success. But if you’re curious at all, through the first 19 games of Ackley’s career his batting line was .303/.356/.530. Nick Franklin’s is .302/.389/.492.

    I think Franklin will be fine. But skepticism should be understood, and a lot of that early on was with his defense.

  45. Westside guy on June 17th, 2013 9:04 pm

    Uecker is awesome! I always loved it when he’d be on the old Tonight Show with Johnny Carson. Dude is an amazing storyteller.

  46. f2aler on June 17th, 2013 9:14 pm

    The link to the statistical article is dead on the fangraphs post is dead. Do you know what it is? Id like to read it.

    I don’t think there is a substantial dispute that Franklin’s MLB numbers are too small of a sample to draw conclusions.

    My point is why based on Franklin’s minor league numbers to date which are equal or better than Ackleys is that Franklin is viewed as trade bait and Ackley 3 years older with 600 plus uninspiring mlb ABS is somehow viewed as a decent prospect.

  47. Westside guy on June 17th, 2013 9:22 pm

    The link works for me – but it’s an article by Eric Seidman from May 22, 2009 “When Samples Become Reliable”.

    It answered a lot of questions for me regarding just when a players numbers should really make us start to take notice.

    Here’s the Cliff Notes version:

    50 PA: Swing %
    100 PA: Contact Rate
    150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA
    200 PA: Walk Rate, Groundball Rate, GB/FB
    250 PA: Flyball Rate
    300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB
    500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate
    550 PA: ISO

  48. Westside guy on June 17th, 2013 9:25 pm

    It’s interesting to note that they went up to 650 plate appearances – but batting average did not sufficiently stabilize even at that point.

  49. f2aler on June 17th, 2013 9:31 pm

    Ok I must be a Techno idiot because it keeps telling me the link is deadn can you post the direct link?

  50. Westside guy on June 17th, 2013 9:32 pm

    So let’s say Franklin keeps hitting, but isn’t the fielder Ackley is (which wouldn’t be surprising) – and Ackley keeps tearing the cover off the ball in AAA. Do you bring Ackley back as an outfielder? Do you let Franklin try shortstop in the majors? Do you send Franklin down and give him a chance in the outfield?

    I’m curious what people think.

  51. msfanmike on June 17th, 2013 9:35 pm

    It’s interesting that OBP, OPS and SLG would stabilize at 550 PA’s, but batting average would not (even after 650), since the 3 can be intricately linked to the one.

    I must find that article.

  52. Westside guy on June 17th, 2013 9:35 pm

    I’ll try it two ways.

    When Samples Become Reliable

    And here’s just the bare URL:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/when-samples-become-reliable/

    As an aside, it’s nice that our pitchers volunteered to throw batting practice for the Angels.

  53. G-Man on June 17th, 2013 9:39 pm

    I think it’s funny that we’ve totally stopped talking about the game. Or maybe the rest of you have turned it off. :)

  54. Westside guy on June 17th, 2013 9:40 pm

    I should probably admit that one reason I’m cautious about Franklin is because I got irrationally excited about Smoak, once upon a time.

    I may have gone so far as to compare him to Mickey Mantle for who knows what absurd reason…

  55. f2aler on June 17th, 2013 9:40 pm

    I live in Huntington Beach so it is a rare game I can watch on local. It has long since been turned over to the voice. Thanks for the link. Reading now

  56. Westside guy on June 17th, 2013 9:44 pm

    G-Man, I am still watching, believe it or not. But one base runner an inning isn’t very exciting…

    I wonder when Triunfel is going back down?

    I’m happy that Condor is at least occasionally showing signs of recovery lately. But he’s still very inconsistent at the plate.

  57. Westside guy on June 17th, 2013 9:47 pm

    TWO base runners this inning!

    So why was Ibañez given the start over Bay against a lefty (Vargas)?

  58. stevemotivateir on June 17th, 2013 9:48 pm

    Anybody else think Kendrys might need a break? He’s struggled since the back issue surfaced.

  59. Roscoe on June 17th, 2013 9:49 pm

    My eyes aren’t what they used to be, but it looked like Franklin was past the bag when the throw arrived..

  60. f2aler on June 17th, 2013 9:53 pm

    My two cents on Westside’s hypothetical that Franklin keeps it up and Ackley is called back up and starts hitting well is as follows:

    The Mariners are not contending in 2013. It is very unlikely they will contend in 2014. The window might open a crack in 2015. The 2015 Mariners who might contend probably have most of the following making an impact – Franklin, Ackely, Zunino, Miller, Holtzen and Walker. So between now and end of 2014, it is important to find out who is panning out of this group. There is no reason to trade any of them at this point, because no amount of return will put the Mariners in the playoffs before 2015.

    I am also of the belief that if you are not contending, your focus should be on rebuilding not limping to 78-84 to please some fans. There is no need for this team to have Ibanez, Morse, Chavez and Bay except as roster filler – those guys wont be around in 2015. On that token, I would like to see Miller called up soon mainly to see if he can play major league SS. As to the outfield, I dont know – maybe Guiterrez has something left? Saunders?

  61. Westside guy on June 17th, 2013 9:54 pm

    Fortunately Smoak is due back any day now.

    (Did I actually say that and mean it?)

  62. f2aler on June 17th, 2013 9:56 pm

    I read the link – I was actually referring to “pizza cutter” (whoever that is) source work on the topic. The link to that is dead.

  63. msfanmike on June 17th, 2013 9:57 pm

    Bay either has a foot issue or a foot issue that will allow him to be put on the shelf sometime soon so Ackley can come up.

    Or neither.

    I think Smoak for Liddi will probably happen right after this game. Ackley for Triunfel or some “injured player” soon thereafter.

    Or neither.

  64. G-Man on June 17th, 2013 10:00 pm

    I thought they might DL the more dinged up of Morse or Morales when Smoak comes back.

  65. Westside guy on June 17th, 2013 10:03 pm

    Oh, okay now I get it f2aler. Unfortunately I don’t know if that’s available at all anymore.

    Looks like maybe he’d posted it on a site owned by his “day job” employer or something like that (apparently a landscape company), and they found out and deleted it. Wouldn’t be the first time that’s happened.

  66. Westside guy on June 17th, 2013 10:04 pm

    That curve fooled the Condor.

  67. dantheman on June 17th, 2013 10:05 pm

    A couple of points. Who is declaring Franklin a “quality major leaguer”? Who cares that he only has 65 at bats? Maybe he will be a better big leaguer than Ackley over an entire career, maybe not. The point is that he has already outhit Ackley this year, small sample size or not.

    Second, are their actual studies – generating actual facts – to back up Mr. Seidman’s (or anyone else’s) opinion about sample size? Bill James used to answer these questions by looking at the numbers. What a concept.

    Third, why on earth would anyone want Ackley, a hitter with no power, in the outfield??

  68. msfanmike on June 17th, 2013 10:08 pm

    The Mariners sure make the Angels look like the Angels were supposed to look. They have given the M’s some pretty bad thumpings which hopefully stabilize soon and regress quickly.

    What is the reliable sample size for thumpings?

  69. Westside guy on June 17th, 2013 10:09 pm

    He (Pizza Cutter) got those numbers from lots of actual player data – that’s the whole point. He didn’t pull those numbers out of thin air.

  70. mrakbaseball on June 17th, 2013 10:12 pm

    Bay didn’t play because of a tight hamstring.

  71. f2aler on June 17th, 2013 10:17 pm

    Dan, has a pretty good point, I’d like to expand on briefly – one of the biggest weaknesses of the for lack of a better word “analytic baseball blogosphere” is disregard of certain scholarly conventions. For example, anytime some source is referenced there should be a citiation to it. The bloggers should use their real names and have their C.V.’s / Resumes available for viewing. Any of the stats used should have a readily accessible explanation for how they were computed. by whom and what they purport to represent.

  72. Bodhizefa on June 17th, 2013 10:20 pm

    Anyone hoping for an Erasmo sighting after this bed-crapping our pitchers just undertook? I hope Harang is banished to the bullpen after today and we get our Eraser back.

  73. Westside guy on June 17th, 2013 10:47 pm

    The FanGraphs library answers a lot of these questions:
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/introducing-the-fangraphs-library/

    And of course there’s “The Book” by Tango, Litchmann, and Dolphin.

    Rob Neyer has written a slew of articles over the last 15-20 years explaining what the various concepts mean, and how they’re calculated. He was a disciple of Bill James.

    There was even an article in ESPN The Magazine a couple months ago that talked about how sabermetrics, despite its flaws, did a phenomenally better predicting future real-world baseball results than traditional baseball stats do.

    Thing is, there’s an expectation that folks are largely going to do the background reading on their own. I am not saying that’s right, or it’s completely reasonable – but that’s how it is.

    You might also check out the “USSM Orientation” and “Suggested Reading” links at the top of this (and every other USSM) page.

  74. Don Money on June 17th, 2013 11:11 pm

    Pgreyy, Not sure of your age but if you were listening to the Brewers in the ’70′s, you surely remember Ueck being teamed up with Merle Harmon and the famous intros to most games. There were a few seasons there where I prayed for rain delays just to listen to Uecker tell some stories. What a talent!

  75. f2aler on June 17th, 2013 11:19 pm

    There is nothing wrong with expecting readers to do background research, but in any scholarly endeavor cititation is essential.

    I’m an attorney. When we are making an argument we usually cite either to the law or the evidence in the record. The purpose of citation is give the read a general idea of its signifigance and allow the reader to look up the source. Richard Poser, “The Blue Book Blue” 19 Yale Law Review 850, 852 (2011).

    See, I made a point and referenced the source. If you are so inclined you can read Judge Posner’s article on the topic of citation. Either way you know where to look.

    If I’m citing various stats, where would I know where to look them up? If I’m citing some previous research, where would I find this? How do I know the qualifications of the author? Is any of the sources peer reviewed on any level?

    I don’t want to sound like an arrogant prick, but about 95% of these posts wouldn’t get admitted into evidence in any court of law on lack of foundation, hearsay, failure to qualify as an expert, and/or Daubert exclusion.

    Personally, I think this area could be easily improved, all it takes is a little time and effort to cite sources.

  76. Westside guy on June 18th, 2013 12:03 am

    A little Googling and hunting around came back with this apparent “reprint” of the original “Pizza Cutter” article : http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/525600-minutes-how-do-you-measure-a-player-in-a-year/

  77. Eastside Crank on June 18th, 2013 7:48 am

    The Vargas trade was a win for the Angels but another loss for the Mariners. For it to be a win for the Mariners, they had to have a pitcher in place to take over for him. That is painfully not the case. Maybe next year there will be enough arms to put together a major league rotation but by then Morales will be playing for a different team.

  78. stevemotivateir on June 18th, 2013 8:08 am

    I don’t want to sound like an arrogant prick, but about 95% of these posts wouldn’t get admitted into evidence in any court of law on lack of foundation, hearsay, failure to qualify as an expert, and/or Daubert exclusion.

    If you were suggesting that the posts by the authors here (as well as the people who comment) are lacking evidence, you’re flat-out wrong.

    This site has prided itself on evidence-based discussion. Read the orientation and you should get the idea. Arguments without facts go nowhere. If you read through the discussions, you’ll find all kinds of numbers spewed as well as dates.

  79. f2aler on June 18th, 2013 9:00 am

    I’m not going to get into the rules of evidence because they are boring and no one will care. Further, there is no judge to rule on admissibility, so it will be pointless.

    Regarding evidence in general there are some holes. Here are a few recent assertions with a paucity of evidence:

    -the PCL is a hitters league
    -minor league walk rate poorly corresponds to major league walk rate
    -Rushing players to the majors is bad financially
    -Ackley is a better long term solution at second base than Franklin

  80. sawsatch on June 18th, 2013 9:07 am

    The Mariners were the laughing stock of baseball on 950 last night.
    I’m sick of hearing what a great farm system we have.
    The purpose of a farm system is twofold:
    1-to bring major league quality talent to the parent club.
    2-to use the farm system to trade for major league talent.
    Failure x 2.
    I propose a drastic remedy but I’m afraid to post it.

  81. msfanmike on June 18th, 2013 9:28 am

    Go ahead sawsatch … I am interested to hear your opinion.

    I promise it’s not one of those things that will require ‘rules of evidence’ or any specific type of ipso-facto mumbo jumbo.

  82. jak924 on June 18th, 2013 9:29 am

    Another fine mess. Seems the Mariners’ GM might be in over his head.

  83. sawsatch on June 18th, 2013 9:40 am

    Start at the top. The present minority owners should leverage a sale otherwise all else is pointless.
    Unpopular, but, trade Felix to a contender for his sake. It will take years to rebuild this team and he deserves a career.
    Keep a few players like Zunino and Seger as solid future players(not necessarily all stars, but solid) and trade or dump the rest. Make a new roster with some of the farm and some of the acquired talent along with new management and player development personnel.
    This will at least garner intersest and possible success. Right now the team is totally irrelevant.

  84. f2aler on June 18th, 2013 10:04 am

    I think msfanmike is taking a jab at me. That’s fine. I’ll happily explain the rules of evidence as it applies to the assertions made in the various posts to anyone who cares to know.

  85. MrZDevotee on June 18th, 2013 10:20 am

    f2aler-
    What would be more exciting is for you to bring in evidence to contradict the assertions which you find have no evidence.

    If you’re a longtime reader here there are LOTS of statistical insights that have become common knowledge, over time (you could say that their “known-iness” has stabilized) and don’t need to be explained every time they’re mentioned in a sentence.

    Yes, it would make YOU more comfortable with the information you’re reading, and doubting (it sounds like)… But that’s where it becomes your responsibility to go look at the numbers and see if you find it to be a different outcome. Or, I don’t know, ask… “Hey Westy- where did you find that info?”

    Also, game threads are the watered down version of the “stat head” nature of the site. There’s a certain leniency given in the game threads, because you’re not actually watching the game if you’re sourcing citations for every comment you make. Game threads are more for fun and entertainment than to enlighten any minds. (Or so I’ve found– and I have a quite virgin, new-to-sabr-geeking perspective) It’s more like a company picnic than hard and vigorous debate.

    The assumption is that Noam Chomsky and/or Antonin Scalia are afforded some leeway and are “off the clock” when they’re having a Texas-style pit bar-b-que in their backyard. Though I’m sure they’ll still provide some useful insight.

  86. djw on June 18th, 2013 11:05 am

    f2aler,

    The citation standards in academia and law are difficult to apply in sabermetrics, because the vast majority of the work is done by amateurs and not published in a formal, peer-reviewed forum. It’s a different kind of epistemic community*, and different epistemic communities have different citation norms and standards. (As someone whose research sends me back and forth between reading legal and political science scholarship, I can tell you that the standard citation approach in each field would be rejected by the other; they have very different approaches to how often and what kind of claims need citations, and what kind of citations are acceptable).

    * Since you value formal, academic citations: On the concept of epistemic community, and its value for understanding the sources of international cooperation, see Peter M. Haas and Emanuel Adler, “Epistemic Communities, World Order, and the Creation of a Reflective Research
    Program,” International Organization 46(1), 1992, pp. 367-390.

  87. sawsatch on June 18th, 2013 11:39 am

    What do you think msfanmike?

  88. f2aler on June 18th, 2013 12:12 pm

    Thanks for the cite – I read the abstract and it might be over my head. I’m not sure if I’m willing to shell out $30 for it quite yet.

    For whatever reason my comments seem to have hit a sore spot amongst the community. As to your point about citation format, it differs across the board – Judge Posner uses his system, Justice Breyer doesn’t use footnotes, some use Blue Book, California Courts use their own system, and it goes on. BUT, the primary goal of citation is what Judge Posner said.

    There is no reason an Epistemic Community can’t cite its sources. All the cite needs to do is direct the reader to the source. As to format, whatever works.

    So peer-review is probably a bridge too far, but having the authors post their CVs / Resumes isn’t too much to ask.

    Finally, using citation will only help the cause of the SABR researching being taken seriously.

  89. f2aler on June 18th, 2013 12:16 pm

    I’m not expecting citation in comments. I do expect it when posts attempt to argue one player is better than another or something to that effect. I can go back and dig through posts to make my point, but I doubt anyone here will care or change their perspective.

    I am not attempting to proffer any evidence into the record. You can view me as objecting to certain assertions for lack of evidence.

  90. djw on June 18th, 2013 12:36 pm

    As to your point about citation format, it differs across the board – Judge Posner uses his system, Justice Breyer doesn’t use footnotes, some use Blue Book, California Courts use their own system, and it goes on. BUT, the primary goal of citation is what Judge Posner said.
    There is no reason an Epistemic Community can’t cite its sources. All the cite needs to do is direct the reader to the source. As to format, whatever works.

    You misunderstand my comment about the difference between law and political science research: it’s not merely about citation formatting. It’s major differences about the kind of claims that require citation, the kinds of citations that “count” for different kinds of claims, and so on. What “citation” means is a community value, not easily easily imported from one epistemic community to another. An epistemic community that emerged with semi-popular publications written by a (then) amateur enthusiast and blossomed on list-servs and blogs also run by enthusiastic amateurs is going to have a different style of knowledge accumulation and reference than a field that’s fully professionalized within the academy.

    I also very strongly disagree with your desire to emphasize “CVs” as a substitute for formal peer review. What’s great about peer review is that it’s blind: we don’t know whether the paper we’re refereeing is written by a full professor at Harvard or a graduate student at WSU. We are forced to evaluate it on the merits. (In political science, anyway; law reviews don’t do blind peer review, which is a real problem). In both of my “fields”, there exists a subtle bias that causes people to take more seriously the work of those with prestigious titles at prestigious universities (Law is much worse than political science on this front), rather than the quality of the work (this bias usually isn’t intentional, although sometimes it is; obsessively citing the powerful and famous is a way of sucking up to them. But usually it’s just a consequence of human nature). Focusing on the work itself, rather than obsessing about credentials, isn’t exactly absent in the sabermetric community (If a nobody had come up with the “win shares” stat, I seriously doubt it would be given the attention it got), but the relative lack of obsessing about credentials–the number and prestige of degrees and so on–is a refreshing feature of this particular epistemic community. The obsession with prestige and “rankings” of universities and departments and so on is one of the silliest features of academia, legal and otherwise.

    Besides, think of Bill James’ groundbreaking abstracts in the 70′s and 80′s. I’m very glad people didn’t pick them up, check the resume, and toss them aside because a night security guard and a pork and beans factory with a degree in English literature.

  91. msfanmike on June 18th, 2013 1:29 pm

    Sawsatch: I don’t think I would consider trading Felix, but that is just my personal preference. I think they can still build around him.

    In regard to the minority owners forcing some action, I have no real idea if that is viable or necessary, but I understand the sentiment.

    Cleaning house to the extent necessary would be a good idea, but I am not sure what that “extent” should be. A good purging all around would probably be beneficial. Some form of 10 day version of an administrative/player cleanse … If you will. Unclog the pipes. Remove the toxins.

    Winning would be a lot simpler, but how long is it going to be for that to occur – with the current path and current regime?

    I appreciate you sharing your thoughts, though.

  92. sawsatch on June 18th, 2013 1:41 pm

    I just think it would be fair to give Felix the option. Staying here has the possibility of making the difference between being a HOF pitcher and not being one.
    At present, I just don’t want to go to the park to see a slow, non-hitting team that can’t even do basic skills correctly.
    A bunch of young, fast guys could eat least spur some temporary interest.
    This is coming from fan who enjoyed many a double header, saw Mantle, Mays ,and Robinson as rookies, saw Satchell pitch when he was with the St. Louis Browns.
    It takes a bit to keep me away from the park, but the mariners have succeeded in doing so.

  93. msfanmike on June 18th, 2013 1:51 pm

    Yeah, I get it. I am almost 50 and am very disheartened with this team and the overall product. 5 crap years out of the past 6 is weighing on everyone. I am Not quite to the point where I won’t watch the games, but the thought has crossed my mind. And it’s frustrating.

    I am making my annual pilgrimage to Seattle next week to watch them play the Pirates (2nd row above M’s dugout) so I will get a good feel for things and maybe rain down a few verbal barbs if the mood strikes. More than likely, it won’t strike, but who knows.

    Wedge irritates me, but then I realize that he is a little younger than me and has made it to the top of his profession. I have only made it all the way to the middle of a large bureaucracy. I do think that he or he and Jack collectively – are the wrong men for the job. I still root for Z to pull himself out of this, but the flurry of bad offseason roster decisions have probably sunk his battleship.

  94. f2aler on June 18th, 2013 1:52 pm

    Re Sawstach’s comment:

    “Start at the top. The present minority owners should leverage a sale otherwise all else is pointless.”

    Finally, a legal quesiton, I’m partially qualified to answer, aside from debating with DJW about citation and the merits of various academic communities.

    I believe the Mariners are an LLC. If I had to guess it is probably a Delaware LLC. LLC’s are governed by what is called an operating agreement. The operating agreement lays out how the LLC is to be managed. It sets procedures for electing officers, managers etc….

    Per wikipedia, Nintendo of America is the majority owner – I assume per the operating agreement it has the power to appoint managers of the LLC – i.e. Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong.

    This doesn’t deprive the minority owners all their rights but it somewhat limits their remedies as they signed on to the agreement when they became owners of the LLC.

    In order for Lincoln / Armstrong to be removed the minority owners would have to allege that Lincoln / Armstrong breached their fiduciary duty to them or grossly negligent in managing the LLC. However, Lincoln and Armstrong are protected by what is called the business judgment rule – the minority owners would have to prove Lincoln and Armstrong were essentially incompetent.

    This would likely fail. The fact Lincoln and Armstrong are incompetent at building a successful team is irrelevant to whether they could be removed – the relevant factor is profitability of the LLC – all Lincoln and Armstrong would have to do is present evidence of the increase in value since they came on board and the case would get nowhere.

    I hope that is enlightening. If USS Mariner is looking for legal correspondent, I hereby volunteer myself.

  95. djw on June 18th, 2013 1:56 pm

    I just think it would be fair to give Felix the option.

    Uh, if my memory serves correctly, he signed a 17 year extension about 5 minutes ago.

  96. sawsatch on June 18th, 2013 1:59 pm

    Thanks. By “leverage” I was misleading. I appreciate the legal information given and even w/o knowledge, guessed that the law would protect the majority owners. By “leverage” I meant to work the media and fan base into an atmosphere that it would be attractive for the majority owners to sell the team.

  97. djw on June 18th, 2013 2:02 pm

    I believe the M’s ownership are organized as an LP, not an LLC.

  98. f2aler on June 18th, 2013 2:11 pm

    I stand corrected, the Mariners are a Limited Partnership. Same general concept, though limited partners by definition are extremely limited in their say over management (non-existent). They still could bring an action for breach of fiduciary duty, but it would be impossible to win.

  99. pgreyy on June 18th, 2013 3:13 pm

    I do indeed remember Merle Harmon. I even remember Don Money (my mom’s all-time favorite player, after Pete Rose broke her heart.)

    And I used to work at an AM radio station that was a Brewers affiliate…got to hear a LOT of rain delay stories. :)

  100. nvn8vbryce on June 19th, 2013 10:10 pm

    F2Aler, this may help:

    http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/sea/history/owners.jsp

    Looks like a garden variety LP to me, except that if you chase down all the LLC’s, here’s the partnership in a corp. format:

    http://www.sos.wa.gov/corps/search_detail.aspx?ubi=601363455

    http://cache.deadspin.com/assets/resources/mlbconfidential/seattlemarinerspdf.pdf – explains revenues as of 2007

  101. nvn8vbryce on June 19th, 2013 10:12 pm

    ^ I had to drill down about 5 or 6 corporate layers to get the partnership which is confirmed on the Mariners’ website.

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