Game 100, Indians at Mariners

marc w · July 23, 2013 at 2:21 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

Erasmo Ramirez vs. Zach McAllister, 7:10pm

Wooo, 100 games! Through 99 games last year, the M’s were 43-56. Through 99 games in 2011, the M’s were 43-56. In 2010, they were 39-60. It’s been rough in recent years, and the play of Brad Miller/Nick Franklin and the incremental improvement to today’s 47-52 mark is welcome. The M’s recent hot streak has seen them retake 3rd place from the Angels, and while that’s a somewhat meaningless consolation prize, I suppose we’ll take it. There have been no prizes in recent years, with the exception of every day of Felix Hernandez’s existence.

Erasmo Ramirez gets a second chance to lay claim to a rotation spot today. His first start wasn’t good, as he was wild and largely pitched without his change-up…the pitch that got him to the big leagues and that he used to great effect after joining the rotation in 2012. Only ten of his 100 pitches against Boston were cambios; he used it on over 22% of his 2012 pitches. Could’ve been a one-game fluke, but it was a pattern I noticed in his last start in AAA Tacoma, immediately prior to his start against the Red Sox. I’m not sure if he’s having trouble getting a feel for the pitch after his injury layoff, or if he’s not commanding it, or what. After that game in Tacoma, I speculated that Seattle may have asked him to throw more curves/sliders, but that obviously wasn’t it. In any event, that’s a pitch he’s going to need if he wants to get back to where he was down the stretch in 2012. His command is obviously critical as well – the Red Sox (a good hitting team, of course) didn’t chase pitches and forced Ramirez into bad counts (last year, 38% of his pitches came when he was ahead in the count compared to just 28% the other day).

I feel like I’ve talked more about Zach McAllister in these game previews than just about any other pitcher, with the exception of Jerome Williams. If you’ll remember from last year, McAllister garnered some attention by posting an almost absurd gap between his ERA (4.24) and his RA (5.60). His ERA and FIP were dead on, but McAllister allowed a ton of unearned runs. You can argue that this wasn’t his fault, but he’s now pitched 208 MLB innings, or about a full season. And in that time, he’s allowed 29 unearned runs. 29! CJ Wilson’s another guy who racks up unearned runs, but not even CJ can match McAllister’s pace. Ok, ok, this has nothing to do with the game, or his performance against the M’s, but for reasons I don’t really understand, I find this fascinating.

McAllister’s a fastball/slider/change pitcher who throws his four-seam around 70% of the time. In that respect, he reminds me a little of Doug Fister, who came up throwing nothing but fastballs and gradually morphed into a (very good) pitcher with command of several breaking balls.* He throws his FB about 92, and has fairly normal movement for a guy with a 3/4 delivery. Somewhat unusually, he uses it differently to righties and lefties. Against right-handed bats, he’s strictly by the book: he likes to keep the pitch down and away, though he throws middle-away too (perhaps because his command isn’t exactly pinpoint). But against lefties, he keeps the fastball UP and away, not down. As a result, his batted-ball profile changes a bit. Righties hit a few grounders, lefties almost none. It’s a somewhat unusual pattern, but something his teammate Ubaldo Jimenez has employed this year as well. Both of them have GB% that are lower vs. lefties than against righties. As of yet, it hasn’t really hurt him – that is, he hasn’t yielded a flurry of HRs to lefties, and his fastball’s appears to be one reason why. When the batter’s ahead, they are essentially guaranteed to see a four-seam FB. Despite this AND the platoon advantage, lefties haven’t annihilated his fastball. His change isn’t used enough to say much, but in the tiny sample, lefties haven’t had much of a problem driving it. It’s the FB that they’re only so-so against. That’s going to be interesting to watch tonight, as the M’s lefty-dominant line-up will see quite a few fastballs. And after years of being historically futile against FBs, the M’s are suddenly 2nd in MLB in pitch type run value against them.**

1: Miller, SS
2: Franklin, 2B
3: Ibanez, LF
4: Morales, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Saunders, RF
8: Zunino, C
9: Ackley, CF
SP: Erasmooooo

In the minors tonight, Jimmy Gilheeney starts for Jackson, who would just like to play a $#@%ing baseball game one of these days. Steven Ewing starts for Everett who play host to Tri-Cities. Tacoma played this morning, with Andrew Carraway starting against Tucson. Perhaps inspired by Erik Bedard’s bizarre outing against the M’s, the command artist walked five in five innings but didn’t give up a hit. He left with a 4-0 lead, and before the quips about his “guts” or pain tolerance, he’s just back from injury. Unfortunately, the bullpen allowed six runs to score in the sixth, and the R’s are currently behind. Josh Kinney did most of the damage, though the just-demoted Bobby LaFromboise let all three inherited runners score, then gave up a HR in the following inning. Ouch.

Today’s rehabbers include Mike Morse, who knocked a double vs. Tucson, and Franklin Gutierrez, who’s 0-3 as the DH today.

* And, I’d guess that part of Fister’s fastball-reliance was due to pitching coach Rick Adair’s belief in establishing/commanding the FB.
** Yes, I’ve been wary of using pitch type run values in the past, but at a team level I think it could be relevant.

Comments

65 Responses to “Game 100, Indians at Mariners”

  1. Westside guy on July 23rd, 2013 2:36 pm

    * And, I’d guess that part of Fister’s fastball-reliance was due to pitching coach Rick Adair’s belief in establishing/commanding the FB.

    Any chance that Erasmo’s less-than-optimal pitch selection could be externally driven rather than of his own choosing?

  2. Grayfox3d on July 23rd, 2013 3:42 pm

    @Buster_ESPN For the month of July, Kyle Seager has more homers (5) than strikeouts (4).

  3. Slats on July 23rd, 2013 4:09 pm

    All the best to Eric Wedge with his recovery.

  4. Westside guy on July 23rd, 2013 4:15 pm

    Wow! Have they given any indication that they know what’s going on with Wedge, or is it still just “running tests”?

    That’s scary – he’s only in his mid-40s, and he has two young kids if I remember right. I hope that, whatever is going on, he recovers from it quickly.

  5. Longgeorge1 on July 23rd, 2013 5:20 pm

    Erasmo has been less than impressive in Tacoma this year. Unfortunately in Everett he gave up 6 hits in 5.1 innings work. 10K’s but it’s A ball. The lack of command is the obvious issue. I am not versed enough to know why. I am a fan of his but for whatever reason he has not regained his form since the injury this spring.

  6. naviomelo on July 23rd, 2013 5:38 pm

    Go M’s. Eight would be great!

  7. Westside guy on July 23rd, 2013 5:42 pm

    I hope they don’t reach 100 wins in a row – ticket prices would be too expensive.

  8. casey on July 23rd, 2013 6:30 pm

    didn’t ticket prices go down to celebrate seven wins – imagine 100 wins!

  9. Westside guy on July 23rd, 2013 6:35 pm

    No, it’s a dollar per win!

  10. georgmi on July 23rd, 2013 6:44 pm

    By that logic, wouldn’t ticket prices get more expensive over a protracted losing streak?

  11. Westside guy on July 23rd, 2013 7:10 pm

    You’re over thinking this!

    For today’s game, to celebrate 7 wins, they’re charging 7 dollars. So if they win today, tomorrow they’ll charge eight dollars because of eight wins. And so on…

  12. Eastside Suds on July 23rd, 2013 7:15 pm

    Westy….Sims said last night that the tickets aren’t seven dollars…..they are seven dollars off regular price. The M’s would lose their shirt if they charged everyone 7 bucks…..I think.

  13. Westside guy on July 23rd, 2013 7:22 pm

    Oh, reducing by seven rather than reducing to seven…

    I thought last night they’d said all remaining tickets were going to be seven bucks! Hehe

  14. californiamariner on July 23rd, 2013 7:23 pm

    Yeah so when the streak gets to 50 they’ll be paying us to go :)

  15. Westside guy on July 23rd, 2013 7:27 pm

    Raul must be so worried about Wedge that he’s forgetting to take his vitamins.

  16. Breadbaker on July 23rd, 2013 7:29 pm

    If you’re second in the league in dingers and in the middle of the pack in runs per game, what exactly have you accomplished?

  17. californiamariner on July 23rd, 2013 7:31 pm

    Hahaha I’ll take the luck any day! The streak just doesn’t want to die!

  18. Eastside Suds on July 23rd, 2013 7:32 pm

    Nonchalant play by the big leaguers.

  19. Westside guy on July 23rd, 2013 7:32 pm

    Excepting Ackley, the people playing now are all basically league average or better in terms of OBP – so I’d hope that’d improve, Breadbaker.

  20. Eastside Suds on July 23rd, 2013 7:35 pm

    I think their SS needs some down-the-line pop up practice. Those (and last nights effort) were ugly!

  21. californiamariner on July 23rd, 2013 7:46 pm

    Ugh Erasmo. 4 ks through 2. But all 5 hits allowed with 2 outs.

  22. Eastside Suds on July 23rd, 2013 7:46 pm

    Note to self: No more Straight Changes to right-handed batters until I can locate better

  23. henryv on July 23rd, 2013 7:51 pm

    so this is the first game I’ve watched of erasmo. what is wrong with him? bad hr/fb ratio or just grooving pitches?

  24. Eastside Suds on July 23rd, 2013 7:53 pm

    Poor pitches in key situations. The guy has good stuff. He just hasn’t located against some power guys, which has led to some big hits. He’s been ahead of every hitter thus far.

  25. Eastside Suds on July 23rd, 2013 7:57 pm

    If the M’s can be disciplined enough to leave the ball up against McAllister they will have him out of this game by the 5th. They need to read Marc’s pre-game scouting report.

  26. Will on July 23rd, 2013 8:07 pm

    Cabrera just tagged up on a ball hit to Ibanez in LEFT FIELD.

    Awful.

  27. Kazinski on July 23rd, 2013 8:17 pm

    You really have to question sending Morales home with nobody out. One out maybe, two outs send him for sure. No outs? bonehead play.

  28. californiamariner on July 23rd, 2013 8:19 pm

    Pretty weak slide from Kendrys. But you know he’s a below average base runner. What’s wrong with playing it safe and having 1st and 3rd with no outs?

  29. Westside guy on July 23rd, 2013 8:19 pm

    Ugh.

  30. juneau_fan on July 23rd, 2013 8:20 pm

    Is it me, or is the team hitting with 2 outs these days? It seems as though they haven’t done that for years. Hell, they couldn’t hit with one out…

  31. californiamariner on July 23rd, 2013 8:23 pm

    Nice Zunino!

  32. Westside guy on July 23rd, 2013 8:24 pm

    The M’s are teeing off on McAllister right now!

  33. Kazinski on July 23rd, 2013 8:26 pm

    It could have been a better, but 3 runs on 5 hits isn’t a disaster.

  34. juneau_fan on July 23rd, 2013 8:27 pm

    Gak, who wants K-Rod?

    I mean, the Orioles did so that was rhetorical question but yikes.

  35. Westside guy on July 23rd, 2013 8:46 pm

    Kipnis is not having a good night…

    Do we have the “slowest guys in baseball” market cornered?

  36. Will on July 23rd, 2013 8:50 pm

    Watching Mariners games is exciting for the first time in a while, agreed?

  37. Barron on July 23rd, 2013 8:52 pm

    Texas and Oakland both lose a lead in the ninth . . .

  38. pgreyy on July 23rd, 2013 8:55 pm

    It’s messing with my Wisconsin-born brain to see Leinenkugel’s being advertised along the backstop at Safeco Field.

  39. Eastside Suds on July 23rd, 2013 8:55 pm

    I would wager we are the slowest team in the American League. Oakland used to have that distinction, but I think we have them beat.
    Also, sure wish Saunders would be more disciplined. He is way to easy to climb the ladder on.

  40. Westside guy on July 23rd, 2013 9:10 pm

    Even with the long slump, Saunders is the fourth highest on this team in BB%, with positions 2-4 essentially tied (Smoak is #1 by a decent 1.5% margin). He’s also got the lowest O-Swing% of guys currently on the team (Andino was lower).

    He’s not exactly Miguel Olivo in the discipline department.

    It’s certainly a let down compared to how he started the year, though.

  41. Eastside Suds on July 23rd, 2013 9:11 pm

    Good (not great) outing for Erasmo. Anytime you can get your team to the seventh against Cleveland giving up only 3 runs, you take it.

  42. Eastside Suds on July 23rd, 2013 9:18 pm

    My comment was was in regards to his penchant for swing at high fastballs. Saunders has a long swing, especially with his trigger mechanism (some call it a hitch). He just has a hard time (although he has worked hard to shorten his trigger since May) hitting decent fastballs that are up. Actually, many left handlers do.

  43. Westside guy on July 23rd, 2013 9:19 pm

    Erasmo’s outing certainly beats having to watch Bonderman any more!

  44. Eastside Suds on July 23rd, 2013 9:25 pm

    Amen brother!

  45. californiamariner on July 23rd, 2013 9:37 pm

    Ackley showed pretty nice range there. Also nice to see Endy subbed in for Raul in a right game.

  46. Kazinski on July 23rd, 2013 9:38 pm

    I like this Robby Thompson guy. That is pretty innovative management putting in a defensive replacement for Raul in LF.

  47. juneau_fan on July 23rd, 2013 9:50 pm

    It’s always refreshing to see a manager manage. Oh, except when it’s another team.

  48. pgreyy on July 23rd, 2013 9:52 pm

    What was THAT? (Other than awesome and lucky!)

  49. Eastside Suds on July 23rd, 2013 9:53 pm

    That’s how you play baseball! Great play by Franklin. Heads up baseball!

  50. juneau_fan on July 23rd, 2013 9:55 pm

    HAHAHHAHAAA!!

    That was perfect. Halfway to first base–uh, kid, the game’s over.

    God, I love Zunino as a catcher.

  51. Kazinski on July 23rd, 2013 9:56 pm

    That was a little lucky, terrible baserunning by the Indians.

  52. msfanmike on July 23rd, 2013 9:56 pm

    Dodged a bullet, that time. Nice win.

  53. Eastside Suds on July 23rd, 2013 9:56 pm

    $8 off all tickets tomorrow night. At this rate, I might have to make a trip over the mountains!

  54. californiamariner on July 23rd, 2013 9:57 pm

    HA! That game was awesome

  55. Breadbaker on July 23rd, 2013 9:58 pm

    It’s nice to see another team’s mistakes coming back to bite them. That run in the first was basically bad baseball by Cleveland and the pinch runner kind of lost it.

  56. Eastside Suds on July 23rd, 2013 10:06 pm

    Bottom line is tonight we won this game with solid defense and a couple breaks. Cleveland put the ball in play most of the night and we made very play.

    I have to say also…..does Zunino make a huge difference behind the dish for the M’s? He has stolen more strikes since his call up than we have seen in quite some time.

  57. Breadbaker on July 23rd, 2013 10:14 pm

    He also knows how to stop balls from going to the screen. We lose this game with Rob Johnson behind the plate.

  58. Westside guy on July 23rd, 2013 10:16 pm

    It is really nice to watch a defensively competent catcher. It’s been SO LONG since our primary guy wasn’t a train wreck back there… Maybe since Dan Wilson? I don’t recall Johjima being great in defense, and certainly most everybody since then has been horrid.

  59. Kazinski on July 23rd, 2013 10:17 pm

    Robby gives a pretty good postgame interview too.

    I should say, I grew up in the Bay Area, and was a big Giants fan in the late 80′s and early 90′s when he was playing second for the Giants. I don’t know if he would be any better than Wedge as a manager, but he has a better personality, and for what its worth, he was lot better player as a professional.

  60. Eastside Suds on July 23rd, 2013 10:19 pm

    Or Montero, or Shoppach, or Blanco or even Jaso. Memories of Danny Wilson. Westy is right on with that call.

  61. Kazinski on July 23rd, 2013 10:37 pm

    Johhima was a pretty good defensive catcher, maybe not quite as good as Wilson, but he was very good. Much better than Johnson, Moore, Olivo and the rest of the parade of horribles. His bat was a lot better than them too.

  62. Eastside Suds on July 23rd, 2013 10:40 pm

    Totally forgot about Olivo. I’ve seriously had high school catchers better than him.

  63. Westside guy on July 23rd, 2013 10:49 pm

    I remember Joh’s bat… I just didn’t have any memories, positive or negative, about his defense.

  64. juneau_fan on July 23rd, 2013 11:03 pm

    Didn’t they claim Joh couldn’t frame a pitch or something? And then pitchers didn’t trust him, blah, blah…

    Careful what you wish for, guys. After they sent him packing back to Japan, it went really downhill.

    Ben Davis! I’ll never forget him taking a ricochet off the plate to the cup and went over like a redwood felled by an axe!

  65. MKT on July 24th, 2013 9:30 am

    Yup, at the moment that a lot of Mariner fans were rejoicing that Johjima chose to go back to Japan (and it must be admitted that he had an overly generous contract), I warned that within a year Mariner fans would be lamenting “Where have you gone Kenji Johjima, a nation turns its lonely eyes to you”.

    And sure enough, the Mariners have had several years of truly atrocious catching. Defensively and offensively. I remember going to a game where the Mariners visited the Angels and a friend, looking at the video screen when the players’ batting averages were being displayed, asked why the Mariners were using a catcher who was batting .190. My reply was: “Because their other catcher is batting .150!”

    Johjima was nothing special as a catcher but at least he was above replacement level.

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