Mariners have Awkward Reunion with Expansion Siblings

Matthew Carruth · August 5, 2013 at 1:34 pm · Filed Under Mariners 
MARINERS (52-59) ΔMs BLUE JAYS (51-60) EDGE
HITTING (wOBA*) 24.0 (9th) 9.1 -8.4 (17th) Mariners
FIELDING (RBBIP) -25.0 (27th) 3.3 -6.6 (19th) Blue Jays
ROTATION (xRA) 13.6 (10th) -1.6 -13.4 (23rd) Mariners
BULLPEN (xRA) -3.4 (21st) 0.7 9.2 (10th) Blue Jays
OVERALL (RAA) 9.1 (11th) 11.4 -19.2 (17th) MARINERS

That’s a way to rebound, taking two of three from the Orioles and showing off some hitting skills while doing it. As area that I’m finding encouraging is that while Miller and Franklin are both struggling a bit lately, they both are maintaining some positive traits. For Miller, it’s the plate disciple as he has five walks to just seven strikeouts (and remarkably, only one swinging). With Franklin, it’s the power as his ISO over the past two weeks is over the .200 mark.

They’re (hopefully) both in slumps, but unlike some of the players we’ve seen (*cough* Ackley *cough*), neither appears to turn into a completely useless player while in the slump.

Michael Saunders, Kyle Seager and Kendrys Morales on the other hand are just all kinds of hot right now, in the hitting streak department. And Justin Smoak’s .293/.396/.415 line from the past fortnight is basically what I hope he’s able to maintain over the long haul: decent average, good walks, mediocre power. Sure, good power would be better (duh), but I aim for achievable, I hope.

Just in case you forgot, the Blue Jays have Steve Delabar and he’s pretty awesome. The Mariners traded Delabar for Eric Thames, whom they never really used and eventually traded for Ty Kelly, who’s actually doing quite well (.905 OPS) down in Tacoma. So I guess you never know. You never know.

It’s R.A. Dickey for the Blue Jays tonight against Iwakuma. It’s always a little fun to watch Dickey pitch as I bear neither him nor the team any ill will over their separation. Dickey was bad as a Mariner, it made sense to let him go. Then he figured something out and got incredible, then he was average again, then he was incredible, and then this year he’s been average again. Guess what! You never know. But you can click through to the pitching charts in case you’ve been curious what color I assigned to knuckleballs in the scouting graphs.

I actually managed to come up with positive stuff here, which surprises me a little. True, it’s always easier to be upbeat after a winning series. But the Mighty Seahawks are about to start fake-real games and the Sounders just did what the Mariners basically never have — spend out their nose to bring in a missing piece in the midst of good season. And the Mariners just keep on being the Mariners.

I guess I’ve just re-calibrated my expectations bar at this point to where I’m only looking for them to be passively interesting. Congrats, Mariners, you are managing to clear that bar. Care to try for the next rung?

Batter PA P/PA Slash line nBB K (sw) 1B/2B/3B/HR Sw- Ct+ Qual+
B Miller* 59 3.5 .204/.271/.278 5 7 (1) 8 / 2 / 1 / 0 93 113 62
K Seager* 58 4.2 .367/.448/.531 8 11 (8) 13 / 3 / 1 / 1 95 107 92
K Morales^ 57 4.1 .407/.456/.648 2 9 (5) 15 / 4 / 0 / 3 108 96 141
N Franklin^ 57 3.7 .192/.263/.404 5 19 (14) 5 / 2 / 0 / 3 98 97 115
R Ibanez* 50 4.1 .152/.220/.217 4 16 (15) 4 / 3 / 0 / 0 101 92 123
J Smoak^ 48 4.4 .293/.396/.415 7 12 (11) 9 / 2 / 0 / 1 104 105 146
M Saunders* 48 4.4 .268/.375/.610 6 13 (11) 5 / 2 / 0 / 4 100 93 107
D Ackley* 32 3.4 .194/.219/.258 1 6 (4) 4 / 2 / 0 / 0 94 110 111
H Blanco 24 3.8 .217/.250/.522 1 6 (6) 2 / 1 / 0 / 2 101 81 128
E Chavez* 22 3.3 .227/.273/.273 0 0 (0) 4 / 1 / 0 / 0 115 116 93
M Morse 22 3.4 .227/.227/.500 0 6 (6) 1 / 3 / 0 / 1 144 92 109
Batter PA P/PA Slash line nBB SO (sw) 1B/2B/3B/HR Sw- Ct+ Qual+
J Reyes^ 63 3.7 .273/.365/.491 8 10 (9) 9 / 3 / 0 / 3 89 106 118
J Bautista 61 4.5 .288/.377/.500 8 8 (6) 10 / 2 / 0 / 3 79 108 76
E Encarnacion 58 4.1 .423/.508/.673 5 5 (4) 15 / 4 / 0 / 3 85 100 138
B Lawrie 55 3.5 .292/.364/.542 6 6 (3) 8 / 3 / 0 / 3 96 114 91
C Rasmus* 55 4.0 .377/.400/.547 2 15 (12) 13 / 6 / 0 / 1 102 93 142
A Lind* 54 3.9 .160/.222/.320 4 14 (12) 4 / 2 / 0 / 2 94 94 80
M Izturis^ 43 4.0 .162/.326/.189 6 2 (2) 5 / 1 / 0 / 0 89 115 119
J Arencibia 40 3.4 .158/.250/.184 2 10 (8) 5 / 1 / 0 / 0 110 89 119
M Cabrera^ 32 3.4 .290/.313/.355 1 3 (1) 7 / 2 / 0 / 0 115 119 89
R Davis 27 4.0 .269/.296/.308 1 2 (2) 6 / 1 / 0 / 0 113 101 92
MARINERS ΔMs BLUE JAYS EDGE
INFIELD -5.1 (20th) 1.6 -23.2 (27th) Mariners
OUTFIELD -19.8 (23rd) 1.8 16.6 (7th) Blue Jays
RBBIP 0.318 (28th) -.002 0.309 (15th) Blue Jays
OVERALL -25.0 (27th) 3.3 -6.6 (19th) BLUE JAYS

05 AUG 19:10 – HISASHI IWAKUMA vs R.A. DICKEY

06 AUG 19:10 – FELIX HERNANDEZ vs JOSH JOHNSON

07 AUG 12:40 – AARON HARANG vs TBD

Reliever BF Str+ nBB Ct- K(sw) GB+ HR Qual- LI
D Farquhar 55 101 5 84 23 (20) 91 0 129 1.2
Y Medina 52 99 3 93 13 (9) 124 3 85 1.4
C Furbush* 50 99 7 91 15 (10) 75 2 135 1.5
T Wilhelmsen 45 92 8 96 8 (6) 104 0 124 1.9
L Luetge* 36 91 4 98 4 (2) 104 0 90 1.3
O Perez* 36 101 3 100 8 (6) 54 2 180 1.4
B Maurer 25 98 0 93 3 (2) 132 2 92 0.3
Reliever BF Str+ nBB Ct- K(sw) GB+ HR Qual- LI
A Loup* 46 100 4 101 7 (4) 134 0 83 1.0
S Delabar 43 110 3 93 18 (15) 32 2 169 1.3
J Perez* 43 94 8 102 8 (6) 141 2 89 0.5
B Cecil* 39 91 7 107 8 (5) 159 1 72 1.3
D Oliver* 38 88 5 107 8 (3) 103 2 95 0.5
D McGowan 36 91 6 99 5 (5) 125 0 118 1.2
C Janssen 30 103 3 104 10 (5) 105 0 68 1.7

Comments

6 Responses to “Mariners have Awkward Reunion with Expansion Siblings”

  1. Westside guy on August 5th, 2013 2:02 pm

    Matthew, I think I remember reading about what exactly goes into “Sw-”, “Ct+”, and “Qual+” back when you were doing these previews over at LL – but at some point could you give a refresher? I looked, but I don’t see them on StatCorner.com (maybe I’m just blind).

    Thank you!

  2. Matthew Carruth on August 5th, 2013 2:53 pm

    There are some rundowns if you go back in the previews to the first couple that I posted this season here.

    Quickly though, anything with a + or – at the end means that stat is graded against the league average.

    So if a hitter has a 76% contact rate, while the league has a 79% contact rate, the hitter gets a 96 (which is .76/.79) Ct+.

    I figured it was easier to see that vs100 ratings than keeping in mind what are “good” or “bad” rates for contact, swing, strike, etc.

    Anything with a + at the end means >100 is better. A – means that <100 is better.

    So for hitters, you want higher contact (Ct) rates, so it's Ct+. For pitchers, you want lower contact rates, so you'll see Ct-.

    Sw = swing rate
    Str = strike rate
    Ct = contact rate
    Qual = a composite stat that looks at the batted ball distribution (GB, FB, LD, pulled, other way, etc) and provides a rough estimate of "how good" a hitter's batted balls have been.

  3. joser on August 5th, 2013 4:57 pm

    They have Delabar, but we won’t see him

    Blue Jays placed RHP Steve Delabar on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to August 3, with right shoulder inflammation.

    Similarly, they have Munenori Kawasaki but we won’t see him either, as he’s back down in AAA.

  4. Westside guy on August 5th, 2013 5:39 pm

    Thank you sir.

    It is bizarre how Ackley continues to have peripheral numbers that look very good, yet the results continue to be quite disappointing.

  5. Westside guy on August 5th, 2013 5:51 pm

    If anyone else was also interested in the extra info from one of Matthew’s early previews (like he mentioned), here ya go:

    http://www.ussmariner.com/2013/04/08/the-mariners-arrive-home/

  6. eponymous coward on August 6th, 2013 10:40 am

    OK, so I have a question.

    It would seem that according to RAA the Mariners should be contending for a playoff spot, figuring that 5 teams in each league make the playoffs (so roughly the top 10 teams).

    Instead they are well below .500. Their Pythag doesn’t say they are hideously unlucky.

    So… what is the discrepancy here? RAA or the M’s record? Is this really a true-talent team that should be above .500 that’s just gotten hosed on some sequencing of how their hits and opposing hits have gone together, or the fact that most of their pitching strength is stacked 1-2? Should we be paying more attention to RAA or things like Pythag when assessing this team?

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