Game 140, Mariners at Royals

marc w · September 5, 2013 at 10:30 am · Filed Under Mariners 

Joe Saunders vs. Jeremy Guthrie, 11:10am

Joe Saunders is a back-end starter making a base salary of $6.5m for this season, and will be a free agent in a short while. Jeremy Guthrie is a back-end starter making a touch less – $5m for 2013. But while Saunders will take his 4.83 FIP to market, Guthrie’s 4.76 is nearly irrelevant: Guthrie’s three year deal calls for $20 million spread over 2014 and 2015. I’m not going to say that Saunders is better, but there’s a reason many reacted with surprise when Guthrie, a few months after being DFA’d by Colorado, signed a three-year, $25m deal with Dayton Moore’s Royals.

There’s no doubt that the Royals needed better pitching: they’d paid Jonathan Sanchez to make 12 of the worst starts in baseball last year. And the moves they’ve made have largely worked out well – James Shields cost a ton in talent, but he’s pitched quite well. Ervin Santana was a good buy-low candidate who actually wasn’t all *that* cheap, but has been worth far more than his $13m club option. Guthrie’s returned 1 fWAR, but because he’s consistently beaten his FIP (even when his FIP and RA have both exceeded 5), he’s been better (above average, even) by RA9-WAR. For $5m, that’s a bargain, but Guthrie hasn’t been baseball’s most consistent player, and he’s due over $10m next year. Look, the money isn’t crippling for any team, even the Royals, but this next year is going to be an interesting one for Dayton Moore. What to do with Santana? What happens if Guthrie has another year like his 2009, or his 2012 again? Does any of it matter as long as Mike Moustakas still can’t hit?

Guthrie’s a sinker/slider/curve/change guy who hits 93mph with his fastball, and throws a fair number of sliders and changes to righties and lefties alike. He’s never racked up big strikeout totals, his walk rate is basically always between 6-7%, and as Dave pointed out, his results are highly dependent on his BABIP and HR rate. To be fair to Guthrie, he’s had a few remarkably low-BABIP years, and his career rate is lower than you’d guess, but you have to be a big believer in the idea that Guthrie just knows how to induce bad contact to see him as a middle-of-the-rotation guy. He’s thrown a lot of change-ups and curve balls in his career, but they haven’t staved off platoon splits; apparently the inducing-weak-contact mojo only works on righties. As such, this is a pretty good match-up for the M’s beleaguered bats.

Unfortunately, the Royals will start 7 righties in order to take advantage of Joe Saunders even longer standing, even more extreme platoon splits. This year, Saunders is surrendering a .400+ wOBA to righties thanks to 20 HRs allowed to them. Hey, on a one-year, $6.5m deal, it’s not the worst deal in the world, or even the worst deal on the team (depending on how you evaluate Franklin Gutierrez and his contract, at least), but the M’s need better pitching next year, and I don’t think they’re going to pay Saunders and hope for some regression to the mean.

1: Miller, SS
2: Almonte, CF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, DH
5: Smoak, 1B
6: Ackley, LF
7: Franklin, 2B
8: Saunders, RF
9: Blanco, C
SP: Saunders

The new M’s six-man rotation and Felix’s scary muscle strain the other day mean Felix will have a few extra days of rest before he takes the hill again. He was slated to start Sunday’s game against Tampa, but he’ll instead start Wednesday against Houston. Erasmo Ramirez will start on Sunday instead.

Comments

43 Responses to “Game 140, Mariners at Royals”

  1. shortbus on September 5th, 2013 10:45 am

    So ready for Saunders to be gone. With any luck we’ll have at least one of Walker, Hultzen or Paxton in the rotation next year, keep Ramirez and add an actually good FA starter.

  2. don52656 on September 5th, 2013 11:19 am

    JSaunders will benefit today from actually having an outfield behind him that can reach and catch a fly ball. Good to see MSaunders in the lineup instead of Ibanez and hope it represents a trend we’ll see for the month.

    Resting Zunino because he must be worn out after playing 2 games in a row? I’d sure like to see some analysis to see if players really benefit from getting regular days off, because I have to believe that 90% of Zunino is better than Blanco. Shouldn’t getting Zunino experience in the next few weeks be a priority (and for that matter, for all of our young players)?

  3. Westside guy on September 5th, 2013 11:26 am

    Don’t count on it, Don. Wedge was asked why Michael Saunders wasn’t starting more, and he mentioned that he’s trying to get all his outfielders in… but then specifically said he was “respecting the effort given to the team by Raul Ibanez and Endy Chavez earlier in the season”.

    So you’re going to still see a lot of Raul in the outfield, which is just flat-out stupid.

    Yeah, I can see why Zduriencik is such a “big fan of Wedge”. Sheesh – Branch Rickey would probably find Wedge too old school…

  4. globalalpha on September 5th, 2013 11:27 am

    You will hardly ever see the same catcher in a day game following a night game. That’s nothing particular about Wedge.

    How about that Smoak Bomb!

  5. sawsatch on September 5th, 2013 11:52 am

    TSN

  6. Westside guy on September 5th, 2013 12:12 pm

    Oh good grief, Rizz, shut up about the value of giving away an out just to move a fast guy from second to third.

    How about we get a different catcher that can hit better than .167.

  7. Westside guy on September 5th, 2013 12:19 pm

    EXCUSE me, I gave Blanco too much credit. His 2013 line…

    .146/.234/.260

    He’s hitting freaking .146 and the Mariners are employing him.

  8. Longgeorge1 on September 5th, 2013 12:19 pm

    Fifi and Kuma are a solid 1 & 2. Rasmoo if healthy looks good. Can we find two more out of the Tres Hombres and maybe Mauer or Carraway? Use our bucks for a real OF/DH. The infield needs a middle guy not named Ryan in case either Miller or Ryan are not really ready. Ackley, Saunders?, Almonte??, and Guti??? and the FA mentioned above could be an OK OF. Zunino behind the dish. Am I dreaming or is this a .500 line-up?

  9. Longgeorge1 on September 5th, 2013 12:22 pm

    Fast guy scores on Sac Fly. I’ll take it

  10. Paul B on September 5th, 2013 12:27 pm

    The team next year depends mostly on whether the young guys improve or not.

    Young players (at least under 27, and probably 25 or younger) are still developing and have not peaked yet, so improvement is not unlikely.

    However, it would be pretty lucky if almost all of them turn out to be quality major leaguers (Miller, Franklin, Smoak, Ackley, Zunino, Almonte). If those guys merely repeat, then this team isn’t going anywhere.

  11. pgreyy on September 5th, 2013 12:53 pm

    Remember when we used to laugh about when we played sports and got our bell rung? Remember when playing while loopy was a sign of mental toughness?

    Amazing to know how frighteningly stupid we were then. (Glad the Royals are taking precautions with a player with concussion symptoms.)

  12. Westside guy on September 5th, 2013 12:56 pm

    What happened? My Gameday cut out a couple minutes ago.

  13. djw on September 5th, 2013 12:56 pm

    Amazing to know how frighteningly stupid we were then.

    In fairness, we weren’t so much stupid as we were ignorant.

    About this game….anyone else questioning the wisdom of bringing in Maurer with the bases loaded?

  14. Westside guy on September 5th, 2013 12:57 pm

    Uh oh, this may not be a good matchup.

  15. djw on September 5th, 2013 12:57 pm

    Pena? 7-5 game in the minute or two here.

  16. pgreyy on September 5th, 2013 12:58 pm

    So, tell me if I’ve got confirmation bias on this…

    …but it seems to me like it’s been FOREVER since a Mariners pitching coach came in to talk to a pitcher and then that pitcher improved their performance enough to survive the inning.

    It seems to me that whenever Carl goes out, it’s merely a stalling tactic to give the pen some time to warm someone up, because the wheels continue to fall off until Wedge decides that either “the youngster has learned enough about pitching in difficult situations and dealing with failure” or “the veteran has earned the right to see if he can pitch out of this jam.”

    It really seems like when the M’s pitchers are struggling–they’re done.

    …or am I just seeing what my brain wants it to see? (And why on earth would I want to see that?)

  17. djw on September 5th, 2013 1:03 pm

    but it seems to me like it’s been FOREVER since a Mariners pitching coach came in to talk to a pitcher and then that pitcher improved their performance enough to survive the inning.

    Don’t really pay attention to that, so I don’t know. I’d be mildly surprised if there’s any noticable positive effect on performance from mound chats from pitching coaches, but it would be interesting to see data on that.

  18. californiamariner on September 5th, 2013 1:10 pm

    Wow that was a really nice play by Maurer. But, when are guys altogether going to stop trying to slide at first?

  19. djw on September 5th, 2013 1:22 pm

    That particular play didn’t make me any keener on Almonte’s defense…

  20. pgreyy on September 5th, 2013 1:24 pm

    And what was up with Condor’s throw there?

  21. pgreyy on September 5th, 2013 1:30 pm

    Sigh. We can’t have nice things.

  22. WTF_Ms on September 5th, 2013 1:33 pm

    We are mastering the art of giving up 4+ run leads! So goes the M’s.

  23. Westside guy on September 5th, 2013 1:47 pm

    Wow I go away for a bit, and suddenly we’re down 6-5!? I think I’m glad I can’t actually watch games at work…

  24. djw on September 5th, 2013 1:53 pm

    What are the odds of Franklin v. Holland ending in a K? 75%?

  25. Westside guy on September 5th, 2013 1:56 pm

    Wow, pinch-hitting that actually makes some sense!

    COME ON RAUL!!

  26. Westside guy on September 5th, 2013 1:58 pm

    YES!!

  27. pgreyy on September 5th, 2013 1:58 pm

    EIGHT MILLION U’S!!!

  28. Section329 on September 5th, 2013 1:59 pm

    OMG-Raul is still occasionally fun!

  29. djw on September 5th, 2013 1:59 pm

    Heh. I was planning to go for a run after the game; twas lacing up and stretching during the Ibanez AB. Will have to wait, I guess.

  30. djw on September 5th, 2013 2:03 pm

    Wilhelmsen pitching: stretches resumed.

  31. Section329 on September 5th, 2013 2:04 pm

    Is there a rationale for putting Wilhelmsen in in a tie game? Can’t think of one.

  32. Longgeorge1 on September 5th, 2013 2:25 pm

    This is just tryouts for next year.

  33. Longgeorge1 on September 5th, 2013 2:30 pm

    Re: Mound chats – My high school coach always told us to look for a next pitch fastball as the advice is usually “throw strikes”. I wonder if the pattern holds in “the show”

  34. G-Man on September 5th, 2013 2:32 pm

    Longg, that’s what Ron Fairly used to say, and I think it makes sense if a guy has been off the plate.

  35. Westside guy on September 5th, 2013 2:36 pm

    COME ON NICKY!!

    (It worked for Raul)

    A walk works!

    COME ON GUTI!!

  36. djw on September 5th, 2013 2:53 pm

    Chance Ruffin? Really?

    (scampers over to fangraphs to see if he’s shown signs of life lately…)

    I guess he wasn’t completely incompetent out of Tacoma’s bullpen. Huh.

  37. Longgeorge1 on September 5th, 2013 2:58 pm

    They keep making a deal about Raul and Teddy BB. I think he is just 3 away from 300. Listening on radio and I haven’t heard that mentioned. Maybe I missed it while going out to kitchen to micro some pizza

  38. Westside guy on September 5th, 2013 3:07 pm

    You’re right, LG – he’s at 297. I had no idea!

    I must say I’ll be pleasantly surprised if he makes it to 29/300 before the season ends.

  39. pgreyy on September 5th, 2013 3:29 pm

    Yeah.

  40. mrakbaseball on September 5th, 2013 3:29 pm

    Walk Off Time!!!

  41. jordan on September 5th, 2013 4:26 pm

    screw it. lets go for the draft pick

  42. The_Waco_Kid on September 5th, 2013 4:42 pm

    This has been a crappy season. Raul’s dingers have sadly been the highlight. The young guys look promising, but that’s about it.

  43. Bremerton guy on September 5th, 2013 9:00 pm

    “Does any of it matter as long as Mike Moustakas still can’t hit?”

    Ouch.

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