Kendrys Morales Declines Qualifying Offer

Dave · November 11, 2013 at 2:33 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

Kendrys Morales may be a Seattle Mariner next year, but it won’t be on a one year, $14 million contract, as he declined the team’s qualifying offer today and is now a compensation-attached free agent. Scott Boras will look to land him a big money multi-year contract this winter, to which I offer him a hearty good luck. As a rule, I generally try not to doubt that Boras can convince someone to be foolish with their money, but this might be his biggest challenge in a while. Morales isn’t that good and as a DH, his market will be heavily limited, so Boras is going to have to pull a bit of a rabbit out of a hat if he’s going to find a pot of gold for his client.

For the Mariners, they now have three choices:

1. Engage Morales and try to re-sign him to a multi-year contract.

2. Celebrate their new-found draft pick and extra pool allocation, not make Morales another offer, and go find a cheaper player who can provide value at DH without costing them that pick or Boras’ asking price.

3. Settle in for a long game of chicken, keep the DH spot available for Morales but hold firm at a much lower price than Boras is asking for, and simply wait for him to get to the end of the off-season without a significant contract, then swoop in as the hero who will give him a job after a winter of rejection. This is the Adam LaRcohe plan, basically, but hopefully at even a lower price than the Nationals re-signed LaRoche for last winter.

Personally, I’d go for door #2. It’s just not that hard to find a player who can produce at something close to Morales’ level, and the pick should have significant value to the team, especially if they punt a pick or two (as expected) in pursuing free agents this winter. While people will say that the Mariners are at the point where they need to start prioritizing winning now over the future, the reality is that you always prioritize both, and undervaluing a draft pick just because the team has spent years rebuilding with little success is silly. The pick has value, and it shouldn’t just be frittered away because people aren’t willing to see that there are a lot of guys in baseball who can perform about as well as Kendrys Morales.

Door #3 wouldn’t be an awful strategy, though it would leave them open to the possibility that Boras never does back off his ridiculous demands and they end up watching better alternatives get acquired while hoping for a potential ending that might not ever develop. Door #1 is the one to be afraid of, as its pretty easy to see the team trying to sell an off-season of Ellsbury, Morales, and free agent pitchers as the Winter of Hope and Dreams. That plan kind of sucks though, and it’s the one to root against.

Comments

48 Responses to “Kendrys Morales Declines Qualifying Offer”

  1. IwearMsHats on November 11th, 2013 2:49 pm

    The fact that everyone declined their QO has to be known as the “Dodgers” effect. Where the client declines the offer and hope the Dodgers sign them to their asking price and then some.

  2. johnemack on November 11th, 2013 2:55 pm

    Looks like the M’s did the right thing in offering the QO, considering that you didn’t want them to make a QO in the first place, Dave. Now hopefully they hold strong and don’t go beyond 2 years, if there is a multi-year deal (ala LaRoche). At least with Morales his home/road splits won’t kill you and he has a track record of what he can do at Safeco.

  3. terryoftacoma on November 11th, 2013 3:13 pm

    This is the second year of the QO’s. I caution there’s too SSS to tell anything for sure yet as to what teams will or won’t do.

    There may very well be a #4: Call it the Cleveland effect and sign a DH like Betran who can also play right. Giving up our number 2 pick for the pick we gain from losing Morales. Then also signing someone like Ellsbury, Cruz or McCann.

    My fear is Jack will go so hard after Ellsbury(whom I won’t go after) that all the good starting pitching will be gone by the time he thinks of needing a starter or two. I fear a repeat of the last two years.

  4. Slats on November 11th, 2013 3:16 pm

    This please:

    2. Celebrate their new-found draft pick and extra pool allocation, not make Morales another offer, and go find a cheaper player who can provide value at DH without costing them that pick or Boras’ asking price.

  5. hailcom on November 11th, 2013 4:28 pm

    Nice to have one gamble pay off–making the QO to Kendrys. I agree #1 would be foolish and essentially give back the gain from the gamble. #2 makes sense, with #3 only the fall back if other good DH options don’t work out as there seems a very good chance KM will be waiting quite a while for a multi-year offer comparable to the QO. Still, there is a lot of money out there and few capable bats. Boras is betting someone will bite as the few good bats disappear. If we go get a reasonable non-QO DH now, however, then we won’t have to worry about that particular game of chicken. I would get Ellsbury (and thereby not need to trade Paxton for Fowler/whomever), but I’m on board with the KM analysis.

  6. Dobbs on November 11th, 2013 5:09 pm

    Given the “success” Boras had last season with his players, it seemed likely that he’d decline the QO. When someone fails to get 1/14 or 2/24 he may start to re-think his strategy.

  7. Snuffy on November 11th, 2013 5:19 pm

    Kendrys @ DH means more Raul in LF. Ugh.

  8. Westside guy on November 11th, 2013 6:12 pm

    Wow – I was completely wrong. I thought Boras was going to switch at the last minute, take the offer, and then do some song and dance regarding why.

    He must be pretty sure Jack is dumb enough to give Kendrys even more money or a longer contract. And he’s probably right. No one else will…

  9. heyoka on November 11th, 2013 7:43 pm

    Now that Kendrys has declined the qualifying offer, the M’s are free to give him an unqualified offer.

  10. stevemotivateir on November 11th, 2013 7:59 pm

    How many teams actually need a DH? And why wouldn’t they target Hart or Morneau instead? Even Martinez would be a more attractive option if Detroit wasn’t too greedy over the return.

    I think Morales will be an incredibly hard sale. My guess is that Boras will try to shop him more as a first baseman, it will fail, and he’ll end up here on a slightly less ridiculous 2-3 year deal.

    Having said that, I’m more hopeful for Dave’s door #2.

  11. henryv on November 11th, 2013 8:26 pm

    I’m willing to ignore these doors, and burn down the bloody building.

    No more Raul, no more Kendrys, no more Morse…

  12. evolvingcaveman on November 11th, 2013 9:58 pm

    Only Boston, KC, Toronto and the Angels produced more war at DH then the Mariners and Kendrys Morales last season per Fangraphs. Four teams better then us.
    What other position are we in the top 5 war? Let’s not be so hasty running him off.

  13. Westside guy on November 11th, 2013 10:19 pm
  14. Adam S on November 11th, 2013 10:20 pm

    FanGraphs has him at 1.2 WAR, a pretty big difference. Has anyone looked at the reasons for this — is it about the defense?

    Not sure if this is good news or bad news. If I believed the Mariners would pursue option #2, this would be great news. But I think they’re going for #1 though I hope Boras’ asking price is so high that they don’t work out a deal.

  15. Westside guy on November 11th, 2013 10:21 pm

    And that was eighth out of 13 qualified DHs in the league.

  16. Adam S on November 11th, 2013 10:25 pm

    Neither 8th nor 4th is really right.

    That list has two White Sox, two Blue Jays and Mauer, Santana, and Hamilton primarily played other positions. Perhaps only 5 or 6 teams had a full-time DH.

  17. _David_ on November 11th, 2013 11:54 pm

    Frankly, I’m at the point where I don’t trust the front office to win anytime soon, so I don’t care how much money they throw away if it brings an extra win or two. If overpaying would prevent future moves, that future is still probably going to be before the team is ready to win anyway. Opening up future flexibility just gives them the flexibility to cripple the team further into the future when they might contend. Bring on the Winter of Hopes and Dreams.

  18. naufrago on November 12th, 2013 12:23 am

    Maybe it SHOULDN’T be that hard to find a replacement for Morales, but it HAS BEEN, at least for the Mariners, since almost every DH since Edgar has sucked notably more than Kendrys. It isn’t just the Mariners, either – both the Yankees and the M’s player development and talent evaluation failed with Montero, who was a sure thing to be at least a good hitter, showing that it isn’t so easy to evaluate and/or develop these guys.

    That said though, personally, I don’t care about a few wins added by an overpriced, bat-only, can’t-run DH. We should just cycle our position players through that slot. There’s really no point in paying Morales, it’s just more of crushing a rebuild under the weight of useless veteran mediocrity.

  19. LongDistance on November 12th, 2013 1:17 am

    Any other team, what to do now with the QO refused would be a no-brainer of sorts. Actually, taking a step backwards, given what Kendrys represents, any other team (qualifier: any other even mediocre team), even the decision to make a QO would be a near no-bainer, i.e. not offered.

    He couldn’t even be used, down the line, as trade bait vis-a-vis, for example, raiding the Dodgers for some outfield help. The problem anymore, as naufrago just put it succinctly, is that the Mariners no longer have any leeway on these sorts of things. They are no longer choosers, but beggars, and you get the feeling the management is stuck now in a permanent Hail Mary mode, in order to boost ticket sales, of creating artificial fan favorites and home run expectations.

    Just my feelings, but I don’t think anyone who really follows the team, could not agree that Dave’s choice #2 is not the most sensible one. It represents a real effort to actually address realities and admit some hard choices and work is necessary to continue the efforts to redimension the team. But they seem so stuck in status quo, unable to let go or modify previous decisions. Ego? Professional reputations at stake? Hard to say. But whatever it is, it makes what look to be, on the surface, fairly straightforward decisions — such as letting Morales now drift away, or drift into limbo — less obvious.

    We’ve gotten used, unfortunately, to non-decision decisions. I think the most telling thing right now, is that, looking around the league, the Mariners aren’t even on the Rumors Radar…

    That says… well, it says what it says.

  20. maqman on November 12th, 2013 2:18 am

    I’m okay with them resigning Morales. Power bats have become rarer since the PED test started in 2004. Morales has a better OPS against 95+ mph pitches than Trout or Beltran and a .302 BA with runners in scoring position. He’s their best cost/value opportunity given the leverage his attached draft pick gives the team.

  21. leftfield limey on November 12th, 2013 4:30 am

    Well at least the offseason started well. I am hoping it continues the same but given I am a Mariners fan I am not betting it does not end in the re-sigining of Ibanez.

    It’s nice to read an email where Dave gives us hope (however unlikely) that the Mariners might do sensible things (I found the off season plan rather depressing in that it was not a “management are cretins, here’s what I would do plan” as used to sustain us in the Bavasi era but a bit of a compromise and downbeat).

    Come on Jack! You still have an opportunity not to cock this up.

  22. Greater Ballard on November 12th, 2013 8:22 am

    While it may be true that: “It’s just not that hard to find a player who can produce at something close to Morales’ level”, we have to remember what team we’re rooting for. They have a history of not being able to do that.

  23. sawsatch on November 12th, 2013 8:49 am

    Clearly #2 if this management could use the picks wisely and develop players as well.
    As it is, it doesn’t really matter, does it?

  24. ChrisFB on November 12th, 2013 11:06 am

    Naufrago has it exactly right up above… but only assuming that this team doesn’t need a complete end-to-end overhaul, which seems to be what LL and USSM are advocating.

    IF one truly thought that Jack Z drafted and traded for the right core of players, then “cycle position players through that slot” is the obvious choice. Almonte at DH for example.

    But since it seems the M’s have no idea how to develop players, and end up with a meaninglessly top-rated farm system, the sabr blogosphere is in nearly full-on burn-the-tree mode and thus there’s no reason NOT to go shopping for a bat-first player to plug the hole. Or perhaps one could do the no-set-DH approach if the M’s have a deliriously good offseason and end up with a plethora of league-average-or-better players such that they really can cycle someone through the DH spot in order to juggle lineups, account for injuries and hot streaks, etc.

    Anyway. Too bad Jack’s Pile doesn’t really give any great in-house options here. Dave’s right. A league-average DH at a league-average price should be very findable, as decently as Morales did and as much as apparently the clubhouse seemed to like him and vice-versa.

  25. Westside guy on November 12th, 2013 11:17 am

    Based on this last off season, it appears Jack Zduriencik doesn’t understand the concept of cycling position players through the DH slot – instead, he signed a bunch of DHs to cycle through position player slots.

    /rimshot

    Thank you! I’ll be here all week!

  26. JasonJ on November 12th, 2013 11:23 am

    Good one. I laughed.

  27. smb on November 12th, 2013 11:39 am

    I;d bet my left arm the M’s will go through Door 1 until/unless it slams in their face like it did last year With Hamilton, Fielder and even Upton.

  28. Typical Idiot Fan on November 12th, 2013 12:33 pm

    The number of you believing that Zduriencik will take the worst course of action possible is appalling. Apparently, the way this has developed by going the way the Mariners want is immaterial when up against irrational stubbornness.

    Until the Mariners fuck up, stop thinking they’ve fucked up.

  29. Jake on November 12th, 2013 12:46 pm

    “Until the Mariners fuck up…”

    Obviously you haven’t followed this team for very long. 80% of their existence has been one f-up after another.

  30. Typical Idiot Fan on November 12th, 2013 1:22 pm

    Obviously you haven’t followed this team for very long. 80% of their existence has been one f-up after another.

    Yeah, make a dipshit assumption about my fandom. That’s an improvement over making dipshit assumptions about what the team will do in the future.

    I’m fully aware of the Mariner’s history. I’m also fully aware it doesn’t mean jack shit going forward. If you’re really at the stage where you don’t believe they can do anything right, then stop bitching, because if you’re right, it will never EVER change.

  31. Grizz on November 12th, 2013 1:35 pm

    Until the Mariners fuck up, stop thinking they’ve fucked up.

    The thing here with Morales, though, is that this front office already offered him $14 million for one year, so there is some pretty good evidence that this front office values him more than it should. If the M’s value Morales at 1 year/$14 million, there is a reasonable possibility that the M’s value him at 2 or more years near the same AAV.

    Comments questioning fandom, however, are always stupid.

  32. casey on November 12th, 2013 2:08 pm

    clearly the Mariners value Morales – he hit .277 with 23 homers. My memory isn’t great but think 2009 Lopez is last guy to put up offensive numbers like this (Seager has been in this ball park). On a bad offensive club seems crazy to me that you wouldn’t value your best hitter and be concerned about replacing the offence in your line-up when you lose him.

    Question seems to be can you replace or even improve his production cheaper and use the dollars for other stuff that you want to acquire in the off-season…knowing that the last time you had this offensive production from a player was 2009.

  33. Westside guy on November 12th, 2013 2:19 pm

    Here is the list of 2013 Mariners, sorted by wRC+

    Kendrys was not on some lofty platform above the others. Even just looking at offensive performance, he was in a cluster. Add in horrid base running and the inability to play defense, and he’s not really not a great value. He’s a decent hitter… but that’s it.

  34. Eastside Crank on November 12th, 2013 2:38 pm

    The Mariners took a big chance that Morales would be able to last a season in good health. His ankles held out, he put up good numbers, and they have a high draft pick. Go with door number 2! If Morales could run and slide (even on rare occasion), keeping him would make sense. He cannot. Therefore be happy that Mariners can get the pick and move on. Spend the money on the other positions.

  35. evolvingcaveman on November 12th, 2013 2:56 pm

    On that list he would be the Top returning hitter on the team at 116+ with only two others above 104 and everyone else below the suck line.
    I think it’s the money that’s the real issue.

  36. Typical Idiot Fan on November 12th, 2013 3:00 pm

    The thing here with Morales, though, is that this front office already offered him $14 million for one year, so there is some pretty good evidence that this front office values him more than it should.

    Not really. The Mariners made it known early that they were going to go the qualifying offer route for Morales, and Boras made it known early that he would advise his client to refuse it. There’s nothing here that says the Mariners value him at ~$14m a year, merely that they were willing to take the risk of having to pay him that for a single year. Risky moves, tho, are part of the game. The rewards outweighs the risks, in my opinion, and I think the Mariners thought the same way.

    Look at it this way, WE of the blogosphere, mere amateurs of baseball business, bantered back and forth on the relative merits of making Morales a QO. Some don’t like the risk, some do. I’m fine with that debate. In almost all cases, tho, nobody believed that it was because the Mariners wanted to keep Morales at $14m. Indeed, the common belief, including that made here on this very blog, was that this was a negotiating tactic. The Mariners stand to, at this point, have a lot of leverage in negotiations with Boras over Morales. Why would they go out of their way to shirk this leverage? More to the point, if they really wanted to retain Morales at a multiyear deal at or over the 1 year qualified offer annual rate, they could have done that weeks ago and skipped risking losing him in free agency. Basically, the logic train seems to be that the Mariners are more willing to risk having to bid against other teams and overpay than taking advantage of all leverage they have instead. Even for the most soul-destroyed Mariner fan, this is just ridiculous pessimism.

    Let me put it another way, when was the last time the Mariners overpaid for anybody? We have to go back to Sexson, probably, and that was a different front office. I don’t think this group of people is so mind dumbingly retarded that they can’t recognize that they hold the cards here. This is the same Mariners team that has come up SHORT numerous times for other free agents. We have no evidence at all to believe that they’re suddenly going to blow the bank on Morales, when they DON’T HAVE TO.

  37. Eastside Suds on November 12th, 2013 3:02 pm

    Gotta go with #2. Indeed, I hope we are in a position to celebrate our new-found draft pick and extra pool allocation, and not overpay for Morales, should we want him back.

    He will likely be offered 3/35 or somewhere around there by New York, Texas, Baltimore or maybe even the Angels. For that money, I totally agree with Westy that he is NOT worth that money!!

    Here is an idea: Dioner Navarro (switch hitting catcher) He fits the need (as Dave so eloquently stated last week of our need for a veteran catcher to share time with Zunino). He hit .300 with 13 HR and 34 RBI’s last year in only 240 AB’s. Might be an interesting fit at only 2 million per year.

    Or, take a risk and sign A.J. Pierzynski. He could also platoon at DH/C. He can still hit as evidenced by his 17 HR/70 rbi/.272 BA last year. Not sure he would be a good fit with young players though.

  38. lokiforever on November 12th, 2013 3:10 pm

    Why not Franklin Gutierrez as the DH? He seems to hit well when healthy. I suspect playing defense in the outfield causes him to miss more playing time than hitting does.

    He can spell one of the outfielders, be like a 5th Outfielder. When he’s not healthy other regulars can take a turn at DH is part of resting players from the every day duties of defense.

  39. Grizz on November 12th, 2013 3:40 pm

    The fact that the front office offered Morales $14 million per year with a sizable risk that he would accept it certainly demonstrates that they value him more than they should. The risk that he would accept was nowhere close to zero, so they had to value him high enough to be comfortable with paying $14 million a year. This is also consistent with the reports going back to mid-season that the M’s wanted to bring him back.

    And it is reasonable to assume that Boras would have received some indication from the front office about what they would be willing to pay Morales on a multi-year deal before giving up his leverage and turning down the qualifying offer. And given the need to maintain an ongoing working relationship, it is reasonable to assume that the M’s are not going to tell Boras that he is a sucker and that whatever parameters of a deal they previously discussed are now off the table.

    The fact that they risked the qualifying offer to such a questionable player tips the M’s hand somewhat toward their desire in bringing him back.

  40. Badbadger on November 12th, 2013 4:00 pm

    “Why not Franklin Gutierrez as the DH? He seems to hit well when healthy.”

    I think it’s a big mistake to hope that Gutierrez will be healthy, what with the incurable disease that makes him get injured easily.

    Also, he hasn’t been that great of a hitter. He had 629 PAs in 2009 and 2010 and posted wRC’s of 104 and 85. In 2011, 12, and 13 he posted wRC of 50, 105, and 111. He’s neither reliable nor an exceptional hitter.

  41. JasonJ on November 12th, 2013 4:12 pm

    Apparently Jerry Crasnik believes the M’s are more into the Beltran/Peralta/Morales market than Ellsbury and Ken Rosenthal believes they are in on Nelson Cruz….oh boy.

    Who knows if these rumors have any truth to them but it’s almost like the M’s FO is intentionally trying to drive Dave away/crazy.

  42. SonOfZavaras on November 12th, 2013 5:11 pm

    Here is an idea: Dioner Navarro (switch hitting catcher) He fits the need (as Dave so eloquently stated last week of our need for a veteran catcher to share time with Zunino). He hit .300 with 13 HR and 34 RBI’s last year in only 240 AB’s. Might be an interesting fit at only 2 million per year.

    I like it, to me Navarro makes a world of sense.

    AS does Michael Young for the DH spot.

    I know he’s 37ish, had a down year in 2013 and probably in decline overall…but to me the guy’s a .300 hitter over a dozen seasons and if there’s a guy for young players to talk to about having quality ABs, he’s gotta be on the list.

    Plus he can play first and third in a pinch, as far as I know.
    And he’d have to be cheaper than Morales.

    Also, I agree with Dave’s Door #2 being the right one.

  43. Typical Idiot Fan on November 12th, 2013 6:32 pm

    The fact that the front office offered Morales $14 million per year with a sizable risk that he would accept it certainly demonstrates that they value him more than they should. The risk that he would accept was nowhere close to zero, so they had to value him high enough to be comfortable with paying $14 million a year. This is also consistent with the reports going back to mid-season that the M’s wanted to bring him back.

    Okay, none of this really equates. Because it was a risky move doesn’t mean the Mariners valued him at $14m. The Mariners can’t control what the QO is, though they were aware of what the amount would be. Calculating risk means sometimes you’ll get burned for it. And, again, if they really think he’s worth $14m or more, why risk him on the open market. None of that makes any sense. The only reason to go the QO route, at all, is because you DON’T want to pay him a shit ton of money. The QO allows the Mariners to leverage future negotiations and / or get compensation if they DO lose him.

    However, as far as risk goes, a 1 year deal for a higher amount than you value someone at is far easier to swallow than a 3 or 4 year deal for way too much money. One year deals can be mitigated, even if they hose you financially; hose you financially for THAT year.

    And it is reasonable to assume that Boras would have received some indication from the front office about what they would be willing to pay Morales on a multi-year deal before giving up his leverage and turning down the qualifying offer. And given the need to maintain an ongoing working relationship, it is reasonable to assume that the M’s are not going to tell Boras that he is a sucker and that whatever parameters of a deal they previously discussed are now off the table.

    No, you really can’t make this assumption at all without more information. What you can assume is that Boras thinks he’s going to get more money for his client as a free agent than he would extending with the Mariners before or taking the QO. That’s it. We’ll see if he’s right or not.

    The fact that they risked the qualifying offer to such a questionable player tips the M’s hand somewhat toward their desire in bringing him back.

    Desire to bring someone back isn’t the same thing as overvaluing them. I’m sure they want to bring back Guti as well, but they’re not going to do it on his 1 year option.

    I think what’s going on here is people are drawing conclusions based on flawed processes. More aptly, you already have your conclusions, based on your pessimism, and are shoehorning details to fit that conclusion. Stop it. Go with what the facts actually say, not what the tea leaves tell you.

  44. Grizz on November 13th, 2013 9:51 am

    I think what’s going on here is people are drawing conclusions based on flawed processes. More aptly, you already have your conclusions, based on your pessimism, and are shoehorning details to fit that conclusion. Stop it. Go with what the facts actually say, not what the tea leaves tell you.

    Right back at you, as you have made your conclusion that the M’s have no intention of paying Morales anywhere near $14.1 million per year without any objective facts to back it up.

    The one objective fact here is that the M’s offered Morales a one-year deal at $14.1 million with a legitimate risk that he would accept it. Considering the value of the draft pick, the M’s had to value Morales close enough to $14.1 million to be willing to live with that amount if he accepts. Given that the M’s prior actions already in that they have already offered him a deal worth $14.1 million per year, suggesting that the M’s are inclined to pay him something near that value on a two or more year deal is reasonable, not pessimism.

    You criticized the person above for jumping to a conclusion about your fandom, but you are doing the same thing here by jumping to the wrong conclusion that my motivation is based purely on pessimism about the Mariners.

    It is not pessimism to assume that the parties involved in a business transaction will act in a rational manner. This would include Scott Boras having a good idea of what the M’s are willing to pay before turning down the qualifying offer. And I am not saying that the multi-year deal is absolutely going to happen, only that of the three options, I see it as the most likely given the fact the M’s have already offered Morales $14.1 million per year.

  45. Jake on November 13th, 2013 9:54 am

    “Yeah, make a dipshit assumption about my fandom. That’s an improvement over making dipshit assumptions about what the team will do in the future.

    I’m fully aware of the Mariner’s history. I’m also fully aware it doesn’t mean jack shit going forward. If you’re really at the stage where you don’t believe they can do anything right, then stop bitching, because if you’re right, it will never EVER change.”

    Congratulations on learning new colorful words. You made it to the 4th, before you started in. Didn’t even bother reading the rest of your drivel.

  46. Typical Idiot Fan on November 13th, 2013 3:53 pm

    Right back at you, as you have made your conclusion that the M’s have no intention of paying Morales anywhere near $14.1 million per year without any objective facts to back it up.

    Hold up. I never said the Mariners had no intention of paying Morales $14.1m a year. The fact that they risked a QO means that they were willing to risk having to do so. That’s the nature of risk, sometimes you lose. This doesn’t mean the Mariners WANT to pay him $14.1m nor does it mean they VALUE him at $14.1m. That is my point of contention.

    Given that the M’s prior actions already in that they have already offered him a deal worth $14.1 million per year, suggesting that the M’s are inclined to pay him something near that value on a two or more year deal is reasonable, not pessimism.

    No it isn’t. There are far too many parts involved in this to simply conclude that because X was true, Y must be true as well. You have no inclination to believe the Mariners want to offer Morales a multi-year deal at close to the amount of the QO… except your own negative biases towards this front office based on previous transactions that you haven’t cared for. If I am wrong on this, I’ll gladly recant my accusation and give the internet equivalent of a foot kissing. But I’m not.

    All you can actually say is that they were willing to risk having to pay him $14.1m for one year. We also can infer from comments made by the GM that the Mariners were negotiating to bring Morales back prior to the end of the season. Anything beyond that is conclusions based on your own perception of the remaining information; of which we have virtually none.

    This would include Scott Boras having a good idea of what the M’s are willing to pay before turning down the qualifying offer. And I am not saying that the multi-year deal is absolutely going to happen, only that of the three options, I see it as the most likely given the fact the M’s have already offered Morales $14.1 million per year.

    That doesn’t even fit the information you just typed. If Boras knows what the Mariners are willing to offer, and it isn’t to his liking, and neither is the $14.1m QO, why would you infer that the Mariners offer was a multi-year deal close to the QO? Rejecting both doesn’t mean the amounts were equal. It doesn’t mean they weren’t either, but there’s no reason to assume one way or the other what the negotiations contained.

    Congratulations on learning new colorful words. You made it to the 4th, before you started in. Didn’t even bother reading the rest of your drivel.

    Yeah, like I needed you to remind me again of your ignorance. If you’re not going to bother engaging the points I made, don’t bother making a glib comment about how you’re not going to bother engaging the points I made.

  47. Grizz on November 14th, 2013 10:45 am

    You have no inclination to believe the Mariners want to offer Morales a multi-year deal at close to the amount of the QO… except your own negative biases towards this front office based on previous transactions that you haven’t cared for. If I am wrong on this, I’ll gladly recant my accusation and give the internet equivalent of a foot kissing.

    Time to pucker up. You are being a hypocrite in calling someone above a “dipshit” for making assumptions about your fandom, but here you are making dumbshit assumptions about my views about the front office. You do not know me. You have zero knowledge about my views on the front office. I have not posted anything negative about the front office on this site or elsewhere.

    I think the most likely outcome is that the M’s will give Morales a two or more year deal with an annual average value in the ballpark of the qualifying offer based solely on this front office’s previous actions and comments about Morales. They like Morales. They liked him enough to offer him a $14.1 million contract even though the payoff if he declined was a supplemental draft pick worth a few million dollars. Basic risk utility theory would dictitate the front office would have to value Morales relatively near the $14.1 million qualifying offer to risk that chance over the significantly lesser value of the supplemental draft pick. If they value Morales near $14 million for one season, it is certainly reasonable to expect them to value him in the same ballpark for two or more years, particularly given this organization’s lack of compelling in-house alternatives.

  48. stevemotivateir on November 18th, 2013 6:24 pm

    Yeah, like I needed you to remind me again of your ignorance. If you’re not going to bother engaging the points I made, don’t bother making a glib comment about how you’re not going to bother engaging the points I made.

    Oh, is this your site? Are you one of the new authors here?

    He engaged the first statement you made on this thread, dipshit. You just took offense and overreacted while disregarding his point.

    But you should keep talking. You’ll get real far.

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