Game 93, The King vs. The Shark

marc w · July 11, 2014 at 5:30 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

Felix Hernandez vs. Jeff Samardzija, 7:10pm

While some have complained that the M’s haven’t responded to the A’s massive, season-defining trade to pick up Jeff Samardzija with a move of their own, the truth is that they made a tiny move to give Tom Wilhelmsen a spot start and to give Felix (and us) tonight’s game. The M’s are contending for the post-season, but they’re pointedly not contending with the Oakland Athletics. The A’s only competition for the division title, and their only competition as the best team in the American League, is the LA Angels. That’s not to diminish this series and this game in any way – this is a great measuring stick for both teams. The M’s want to demonstrate that they can hang with the best teams in the league, a desire they probably feel more keenly now after being shut down by the likes of Kyle Gibson and Yohan Pino. But the A’s need to demonstrate that the lack of front-line starting pitching that helped cut short their playoff runs the past two years is a problem they’ve solved once and for all. That even if a Felix, or a Scherzer or Verlander throws a gem, they can scratch out a win thanks to Sonny Gray or tonight’s starter, Jeff Samardzija.

It’s kind of amazing to reflect on Samardzija’s journey from bust to just-about-David-Price’s-equal in trade value. The ex-football player’s straight fastball and the glacial pace of his breaking ball development left him a hittable pitcher in the low-minors. A guy who’d signed a near-record bonus who put up a lower K/9 than Kevin Correia’s this year…in the high-A Florida State League, a league as pitcher friendly as the California League isn’t. Inconclusive big-league trials in 2008, 2009 and 2010 (you can’t say the Cubs didn’t try), the Cubs moved him to the bullpen for 2011 and watched as he blossomed into an intriguing set-up man. That’s not what you spend millions buying someone away from the NFL for, but it’s also not the nothing I think we all assumed they’d wring out of that deal. The Cubs gave him one more shot to start in 2012, and the results have been better than the Cubs’ could’ve hoped for.

That’s not to say they’ve been unambiguously great, though. He followed up his breakthrough 2012 season with a 2013 that showed flashes of brilliance, but a heck of a lot more runs allowed than you’d want from an ace or even a #2. By FIP, he was worth 2.8 WAR, which is solid, but nothing special. By RA-9 WAR, he was below average; a 4.34 ERA in today’s National League just isn’t all that special. This year, though, he’s taken another clear step forward – he’s halved his HR/9 rate thanks in part to a career-best GB%. He’s cut down on walks, which had been a struggle for him since his days in the minors. He’s not throwing a new pitch, but much-improved command of his two-seam/sinker seems to be key for him. He’d thrown balls with about 36.5% of his sinkers in both 2012 and 2013, but he’s trimmed that to 30% in 2014. It’s not exactly a weapon against lefties, but the command has helped him keep lefties in the ballpark. Now, somewhat shockingly, his ERA’s lower than his FIP and he’s the centerpiece of the biggest in-season trade in years. The A’s are all-in for 2014, and they obviously see Samardzija as an important step in building a team capable of winning short playoff series.

All of that said, there are warning signs here. Tony Blengino’s analysis shows that Shark’s K rate and the slightly below-average authority hitters impart to their balls-in-play against him make him a solid #2. That may be, but remember that he racked up that quality-of-contact in the National League. How to measure league quality is still somewhat tough, as league-wide factors can often get swamped by the particulars of specific players and specific contexts (ie. pitching in the Oakland Coliseum). But one striking difference between the leagues, and between the AL West and NL Central in particular, concerns the platoon advantage. Dave mentioned this a while ago and I’ve been fascinated by it ever since: hurlers in the NL Central have seen line-ups that are more righty-dominant, and thus pitchers like Samardzija have enjoyed the platoon advantage in a majority of their plate appearances. For some pitchers, that wouldn’t matter so much, but Samardzija’s splits are pretty prominent. This year, lefties are putting up a .316 wOBA against him, compared to just .271 for righties. That .045 gap is right in line with his career splits, and his splits since moving to the rotation in 2012. They’re not gigantic, but its his performance against right-handed bats that make him stand out. Against lefties, he’s been roughly league-average, perhaps a touch worse.

The AL will not afford him the luxury of facing a few more righties than lefties (Samardzija had the platoon advantage in 53% in 2013, and 55% this year) – ask Felix, who’s faced a right-hander in just less than 42% of his PAs this year. And it’s not just a case of BABIP or a HR or two creeping over the fence that produce Samardzija’s platoon splits. He’s a different pitcher depending on who’s in the batters box. His walk rate against lefties is a bit better than his 2012-13 average, but not much. His GB% against lefties hasn’t moved either. It’s 43.8% in 2014, a touch better than 2013′s 43.3%, but worse than 2012′s 45.5%. The big increase in his GB% overall has come exclusively against righties, and perhaps not coincidentally, Samardzija saw a greater percentage of righties in 2013 and then again in 2014. Put all of it together, and I wonder if the quality-of-contact numbers Blengino posted are at least partially the product of the platoon advantage. None of this is to suggest that Samardzija’s bad, or that he’ll struggle in the AL. A guy who holds lefties to league average moving to a spacious ballpark with excellent defenders behind him is probably going to pitch well. But it’s also not clear that he’s worth the high price the A’s paid. I admire Beane’s guts in pulling the trigger and attempting to build a dominant team for 2014, but Samardzija may have been lucky in the first half of 2014; the A’s need to hope he’ll be lucky in the playoffs, too.

Here’s tonight’s line-up. The AL West likes to throw a lot of lefties at you, Shark.

1: Chavez, RF
2: Jones, CF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Morrison, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Ackley, LF
8: Miller, SS
9: Zunino, C
SP: King Felix

Eight lefties. As you can see, Justin Smoak’s been brought up from Tacoma with Michael Saunders DL’d after suffering a strained oblique. The choice of Smoak over, say, Montero was probably an easy one for a team that values match-up data as much as this one: Smoak homered off of Samardzija the last time he pitched against Seattle, back in 2013.

Erasmo Ramirez, Stephen Landazuri, Dylan Unsworth, Seon Gi Kim and Noel de la Cruz start tonight for the M’s affiliates. Thanks to last night’s win, only Pulaski has a winning record among the M’s seven US-based affiliates (though the DSL and VSL teams have losing records too). The minor league teams have been pretty solid most years under GMZ; not sure if this is a deliberate shift in promotion/placement process for players – that is, if they’re challenging young players a bit more – or if it’s just one of those random things that happens now and again.

Comments

90 Responses to “Game 93, The King vs. The Shark”

  1. Westside guy on July 11th, 2014 6:32 pm

    Is this the Shark’s first AL game? Having your first AL lineup be the Mariners could be seen as a soft landing by some people. Especially with Saunders out – the team has lost 1/3 of its above average hitting contingent for 6-8 weeks, apparently.

    We are doomed. DOOMED!!!!

    (Note to reactionaries: read the last few game threads before responding)

  2. Sowulo on July 11th, 2014 7:06 pm

    No. It’s not his first AL start with the A’s. He threw 7 4-hit 1-run ball against Toronto last Sunday.

  3. JMB on July 11th, 2014 7:07 pm

    This feels like the biggest series in ages. Let’s do this!

  4. californiamariner on July 11th, 2014 7:09 pm

    Been looking forward to this all week. Come on Felix!

  5. JMB on July 11th, 2014 7:18 pm

    Crap. Over already. :-(

  6. Grayfox3d on July 11th, 2014 7:19 pm

    Feels like it doesnt it JMB.

  7. Seattleguy527 on July 11th, 2014 7:28 pm

    I’m still pissed about them bumping Felix back a day. They can’t be stupid enough to think they have any shot of catching the A’s. So instead of possibly winning one of the last two games, they’re going to lose both.

  8. Westside guy on July 11th, 2014 7:29 pm

    Man, what happened to all my reverse curse mojo?

  9. californiamariner on July 11th, 2014 7:30 pm

    Seattleguy, you’re probably right.

  10. JMB on July 11th, 2014 7:31 pm

    Sure does. Felix could be perfect the rest of the way but I have no faith in our offense.

  11. Seattleguy527 on July 11th, 2014 7:36 pm

    Wow. That was unexpected. Maybe they actually have some fight in them after all.

  12. msfanmike on July 11th, 2014 7:40 pm

    Good AB by Smoak.

  13. Seattleguy527 on July 11th, 2014 7:41 pm

    Neither pitcher looks very sharp. Again, not what I expected.

  14. GhostofMarinersPast on July 11th, 2014 7:41 pm

    Alright. I have figured out a solution. Justin Smoak needs Colorado. His warning track power will translate there. We need and should want Corey Dickerson. The guy can play. What if we put together a package of Smoak, erasmo and franklin? This seems doable. I hope aside from the obvious Tulo enticement, that JackieZ has been noticing this guy. Let’s go to work!

  15. californiamariner on July 11th, 2014 7:44 pm

    Only the one big hit, but those were some pretty good at bats all inning.

  16. Grayfox3d on July 11th, 2014 7:50 pm

    Oakland did therr best Seattle impression that inning taking as few pitches as possible.

  17. msfanmike on July 11th, 2014 7:50 pm

    6-8 weeks of being out is the timeframe estimate for Saunders, Westy?

    Really?

    Wow.

    I hope the oblique doesn’t become chronic. He’s already battling what sounds to be a chronic shoulder injury. By the way he grabbed at his back last night, I certainly wasn’t thinking oblique. And he held up on his swing – to hurt it.

    Man, that injury is going to hurt the already nearly non-existent outfield.

  18. Seattleguy527 on July 11th, 2014 7:52 pm

    Yeah, Grayfox3d, normally they are a patient team but I think they are trying to jump on his fastball early so they don’t fall behind in the count. The irony there is that his change has been the pitch they are teeing off on, at least so far.

  19. Westside guy on July 11th, 2014 7:54 pm

    Nice, Brad!

    And yeah, Saunders has a grade 2 strain which apparently means there’s some tearing. Estimated DL period – according to a beat writer, anyway – is typically 6-8 weeks for a grade 2 injury. I am hoping they are off base.

  20. msfanmike on July 11th, 2014 7:54 pm

    Why would Colorado consider that trade? Smoak has no trade value. Franklin has a little trade value, and Erasmo is a bottom of rotation at best candidate that most teams can already fill from within.

    Doesn’t Colorado hang up the phone – quickly – while laughing hysterically?

  21. Grayfox3d on July 11th, 2014 7:55 pm

    Do they have statistics as to what team swings at the most pitches out side the zone? I’m pretty sure we would top the list.

  22. Westside guy on July 11th, 2014 8:00 pm

    It’s certainly good news that Rad Miller seems to be maintaining his improved level of performance.

  23. Seattleguy527 on July 11th, 2014 8:00 pm

    No matter what happens the rest of the way, I was clearly wrong about this game. Given past results, his and ours, I thought Samardzija would dominate.

    But now that I think about it, where was this effort the last week or two? We get schooled by Noesi and Correia, but now we show up against Samardzija?

  24. msfanmike on July 11th, 2014 8:01 pm

    Yes, there is such a stat. O and Z swing rates. Check out the fangraphs website – click on team stats. Intuitive from that point.

  25. Westside guy on July 11th, 2014 8:02 pm

    Anticipating Mike’s request…

    Mariners are #11 in terms of swinging at balls

  26. Grayfox3d on July 11th, 2014 8:11 pm

    double plays are such a rally killer!

  27. Grayfox3d on July 11th, 2014 8:15 pm

    Anyone see the 3rd pitch to Punto? i’m watching on gamecast and that looked perfect, called a ball.

  28. Westside guy on July 11th, 2014 8:18 pm

    By the way, apparently Willie F. Bloomquist is now officially the team’s emergency catcher.

  29. marc w on July 11th, 2014 8:21 pm

    Yes, by BIS, the M’s are 11th most aggressive in swinging at balls. By pitch fx, though, they’re 6th, and 2nd in the AL (or should we be saying they’re 25th/13th?). Anyway, they swing at a lot of bad pitches.
    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=15&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,d

    Of course, a few of the teams ‘ahead’ of them are quite good – the Orioles and Giants have been good offenses thus far, and Milwaukee’s been a good surprise. The Braves are less surprising, and their offense isn’t as hot as it was at this stage last year, but they’re pretty good. The problem is that the M’s don’t hit strikes far enough. If you’re not incredibly talented, you can’t give away ABs. If you can drive the ball and/or hit balls hard, hey, do what you like (this is the Vlad Guerrero postulate).

  30. Grayfox3d on July 11th, 2014 8:24 pm

    Ugh thank god Felix made it thru that inning, he was starting to get a bit wild.

  31. msfanmike on July 11th, 2014 8:26 pm

    Westy, I wonder what that swing rate stat would be if Zunino at bats were removed from the equation. The team probably drops to 28th.

  32. Westside guy on July 11th, 2014 8:31 pm

    Zunino swings at 42.3 (or 42.7) percent of all pitches outside the zone.

    I actually have that number mostly memorized now – I look it up mainly to check the decimal.

  33. Seattleguy527 on July 11th, 2014 8:39 pm

    Felix needs to stop getting cute and just challenge these guys. At one point in the 5th it was looking like he might be able to go 9, now he probably won’t last past the 7th.

  34. Westside guy on July 11th, 2014 8:43 pm

    SO close. Two more feet and Mikey would’ve had himself another dinger.

  35. Grayfox3d on July 11th, 2014 8:48 pm

    Ugh is so frustrating when things are finally going good and then someone comes out and gets a 1 pitch out! especially with a RISP.

  36. HighlightsAt11 on July 11th, 2014 8:50 pm

    A: A run scores.

    Q: What happens with two doubles in a row and a baserunner does not get thrown out at home plate.

    OT: Anyone else have timeout issues logging into USS Mariner.

  37. Grayfox3d on July 11th, 2014 8:53 pm

    Hey Felix might make it thru 8! that was a really good inning.

  38. HighlightsAt11 on July 11th, 2014 8:57 pm

    There’s a lot of swinging at the first pitch going on in these later innings by both clubs.

    Felix has 90 pitches after seven innings. Can he do a complete game? Or will Rodney takeover? Of course depends what happens in the eighth.

    I’m double tired of Smoak. And Ackley. And Hart. And…

  39. kfrei2 on July 11th, 2014 9:01 pm

    I just about can’t stand to watch Ackley anymore. Please send him down. Please. There has to be another outfielder available somewhere.

  40. HighlightsAt11 on July 11th, 2014 9:01 pm

    Felix please don’t mess around with Vogt. The guy is on fire.

  41. Seattleguy527 on July 11th, 2014 9:02 pm

    I’m sure this will be Felix’s last inning. The A’s really bailed him out last inning — 5 pitches in that inning will allow him to pitch most, or all, of the 8th.

  42. Grayfox3d on July 11th, 2014 9:03 pm

    who is this Vogt kid? and how is Oakland always able to find these Diamonds in every dirt patch.

  43. msfanmike on July 11th, 2014 9:03 pm

    Nice play Seager!

  44. Seattleguy527 on July 11th, 2014 9:03 pm

    Holy sh*t that was a huge play by Seager.

  45. HighlightsAt11 on July 11th, 2014 9:05 pm

    That’s the kind of play which will win ball games. Nicely done Kyle and team.

  46. Grayfox3d on July 11th, 2014 9:05 pm

    oh no… Felix please be ok.

  47. HighlightsAt11 on July 11th, 2014 9:06 pm

    Felix, time for #10 K

  48. californiamariner on July 11th, 2014 9:08 pm

    Felix at 101 pitches. Does he go for the complete game?

  49. Grayfox3d on July 11th, 2014 9:09 pm

    California, I think it depends on how long of a break he gets this half inning.

  50. californiamariner on July 11th, 2014 9:11 pm

    It looks like Felix is done. Shirt untucked and Rodney warming up. Rodney against the A’s. Buckle up.

  51. HighlightsAt11 on July 11th, 2014 9:11 pm

    Quick, someone remind me the positive side to the Jaso trade, for the Mariners that is.

  52. Grayfox3d on July 11th, 2014 9:12 pm

    Highlights, gonna be looking for that answer for a long time.

  53. HighlightsAt11 on July 11th, 2014 9:13 pm

    That was a rhetorical question. There was no positive side.

  54. Grayfox3d on July 11th, 2014 9:14 pm

    Well Jack Z certainly wont be putting that on his Resume.

  55. HighlightsAt11 on July 11th, 2014 9:16 pm

    It’s Rodney time. He’s really earned my respect since the wild rides at the beginning of the season. He is deserving of more national attention than he has been receiving.

  56. Grayfox3d on July 11th, 2014 9:23 pm

    seriously! this strike zone is atrocious!!!!!

  57. Section329 on July 11th, 2014 9:23 pm

    It was Morse,s big bat Highlites, not.

  58. Seattleguy527 on July 11th, 2014 9:25 pm

    Oh those base on balls. How do you not put Norris away?

  59. Grayfox3d on July 11th, 2014 9:26 pm

    that pitch on the other side for a lefty is a strike! what is going on!

  60. Seattleguy527 on July 11th, 2014 9:27 pm

    This is going to get ugly if he keeps grooving fastballs like this…

  61. Grayfox3d on July 11th, 2014 9:28 pm

    That makes me wish ichiro was still in right field, no way Norris runs.

  62. Seattleguy527 on July 11th, 2014 9:28 pm

    Wow. No pinch hitter for Punto? Thanks, A’s.

  63. Eastside Suds on July 11th, 2014 9:28 pm

    Okay baby. Let’s do this!! Show why you should be on the AS team Fernando!!

  64. HighlightsAt11 on July 11th, 2014 9:29 pm

    End this circus. Strike Punto out.

  65. Eastside Suds on July 11th, 2014 9:30 pm

    My heart is pounding!!

  66. Grayfox3d on July 11th, 2014 9:31 pm

    quit getting fancy and attack!!!!

  67. HighlightsAt11 on July 11th, 2014 9:31 pm

    Suds…are you ok. Is it IPA?

  68. Seattleguy527 on July 11th, 2014 9:31 pm

    This is maddening. They are just refusing to go after hitters tonight. 0-2 on Punto and 3 straight garbage pitches.

  69. Eastside Suds on July 11th, 2014 9:32 pm

    Fuck yes!!!

  70. HighlightsAt11 on July 11th, 2014 9:32 pm

    Got the job done, even if it was a bit ugly. Right on!

  71. Grayfox3d on July 11th, 2014 9:32 pm

    best 3rd strike call ever! i love it!

  72. G-Man on July 11th, 2014 9:33 pm

    thanks, ump, we’ll take it.

  73. HighlightsAt11 on July 11th, 2014 9:33 pm

    Suds, now we know your heart is ok. Have to fix the issue with the Hart.

  74. Seattleguy527 on July 11th, 2014 9:33 pm

    Quite possibly the best part of the game… seeing that Bob Melvin actually has a pulse.

  75. Eastside Suds on July 11th, 2014 9:34 pm

    Boy did we need that one!! Outstanding. Way to show some guts Mariners!!

  76. JMB on July 11th, 2014 9:34 pm

    Did Nick Punto just get tossed from the game after it was over? Helmet slam and then “That’s f***ing terrible!”

  77. djw on July 11th, 2014 9:34 pm

    The super-framer strikes again.

  78. Eastside Suds on July 11th, 2014 9:36 pm

    That was all Zunino. A pitchers best friend. And yes, Punto was tossed when he threw his helmet. Immediately.

  79. HighlightsAt11 on July 11th, 2014 9:36 pm

    The data tells me Punto was instructed to not swing at a Rodney full count pitch. Probably would not have mattered.

  80. californiamariner on July 11th, 2014 9:36 pm

    That was definitely a ball but I’ll take it!

  81. Seattleguy527 on July 11th, 2014 9:37 pm

    Yeah, JMB, he actually got tossed after the game was over. That was hilarious. I think that’s why the ump just kind of halfheartedly threw him out. He knew once he started to toss him it didn’t make sense.

  82. HighlightsAt11 on July 11th, 2014 9:40 pm

    50 wins before all-star break. I’ll take that,

  83. Eastside Suds on July 11th, 2014 9:40 pm

    Win 50 baby!! Let’s keep this train rolling to the break!!

  84. HighlightsAt11 on July 11th, 2014 9:45 pm

    If things go well, the A’s will be only a half game ahead of the Angels at the break.

    Well actually I’d prefer the Angels lose two in a row to the Rangers, but that won’t be happening.

    Kuma and Young, go get it done.

  85. JMB on July 11th, 2014 9:45 pm

    Just caught Melvin… “that’s f***ing horses**t”. Nice!

  86. Eastside Suds on July 11th, 2014 9:50 pm

    We are in the WC if the season ended today. Lots of scoreboard watching the rest of the way.

  87. Grayfox3d on July 11th, 2014 9:59 pm

    Its bugging me that the Seager play is not in the MLB.com highlights! I missed it on tv.

  88. islandan on July 12th, 2014 8:46 am

    sign Pierzynski for the minimum. Cheap, switch-hitter, and he’s better than Sucre………..pinch-hitting depth too. A nice easy cheap improvement for next to nothing.
    Just depends if he’s as toxic as the reputation says…..

  89. jak924 on July 12th, 2014 9:57 am

    Thanks to Dave Sims for revealing that Ivar Haglund was a “guy who made a fortune on fish and chips.” Gee, it would be nice to have a TV announcer who, if not a native, had enough interest in Seattle to show at little more knowledge and respect.

  90. bongo on July 12th, 2014 12:08 pm

    The scary thing is that Pierzynski’s OPS (.633) is better than Bloomquist, Ackley, Hart and Miller.

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