Game 100, Mets at Mariners

marc w · July 22, 2014 at 5:30 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

Erasmo Ramirez vs. Jacob deGrom, 7:10pm

Ooookay, I know there was a game thread for last night’s game, and now I don’t see it. Hopefully, this one doesn’t get eaten. I’m tapping Jacob deGrom’s FIP in Morse Code here in case nothing else works….

OK, after taking care of Jon Niese last night, the M’s face a very different challenge in rookie Jake deGrom. Niese was a lefty ground-baller, exactly the kind of pitcher that usually gives the M’s fits. deGrom’s a righty with a GB rate around 40% in his brief career. Niese’s fastball has dropped to the 88-89 range, while deGrom still rushes it up around 94-95.

deGrom wasn’t a heralded pick out of Stetson, and his odds got longer still after undergoing TJ surgery the season after the draft. His stuff looked solid in 2013, with his velocity back to his pre-surgery peak, but he got knocked around a bit in AA. That said, he made great strides this year in the PCL – the velo was there, his change-up looked much better, and he even started to get ground balls. He ran a better-than-50% GB rate for the first time, and Cashman Field in Las Vegas is a good place to be a ground-ball guy. That said, he’s still something of an enigma. He’s striking out far more big league hitters than you’d expect. That GB% spike in AAA? It’s completely gone, and he’s back to being a fly-ball guy.

In the minors and (thus far) in the majors, he’s not run much of a platoon split. A curve and change-up are good ways to limit splits, and he’s comfortable throwing both to lefties. It’s just that how he GETS to those broadly-equivalent results is very different. To right-handers, he’s the extreme-GB% guy he was in the PCL. He’s at an almost 2:1 GB/FB ratio vs. righties, but against lefties, it’s just 0.76. Righties bash his sinker and change-up into the ground like they’re Derek Lowe pitches, but lefties don’t have the same issue. It’s somewhat remarkable that he doesn’t have platoon splits given how many more fly balls lefties hit. His four-seam fastball’s been effective against both, and that’s what 95mph will do for you, but it’s still a striking difference. So, despite the lack of observed splits, this isn’t a bad match-up for a lefty-dominated M’s team…even if they’re an org that’s struggled against plus-velocity and good fastballs in general.

Erasmo Ramirez returns, with Justin Smoak heading south to Tacoma. Ramirez’s control has made some strides in his recent PCL stint, though cynics would point out that his control *in the minors* has never been in question. The issue is can he avoid the mistakes that have cost him against big league teams. This is an important start for the Nicaraguan as the M’s need to decide if he’s in the mix for the #5 spot in the rotation long term, or if he’s more valuable as a change-of-scenery trade chip. That’s certainly selling low, but he could open some eyes down the stretch. Of course, given the M’s pitching depth and injury history, it’s probably much better to keep him in the fold.

1: Chavez, RF
2: Jones, CF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Seager, 3B
5: Hart, DH
6: Morrison, 1B
7: Bloomquist, SS
8: Ackley, CF
9: Zunino, C
SP: Erasmoooo

Last night’s twitter highlight was the debate between Rob Neyer and Dave Cameron on the merits of promoting Tacoma DH Jesus Montero. As you know, Montero’s crushing PCL lefties, and Corey Hart’s not crushing much of anything. Seems easy, but as Dave points out, it’s really not. At some point, they need to figure out if Hart’s capable of helping the playoff push, but the M’s are more aware of Montero’s limitations (from my point of view, batspeed’s the big one here) than fans just checking the stats at MiLB.com. Still, it’s an interesting debate, and one Hart’s really helping to make a topical one.

And, on the off chance you missed it, here’s Ackley’s stunning, HR-robbing catch from last night’s game.

Comments

118 Responses to “Game 100, Mets at Mariners”

  1. Woodcutta on July 22nd, 2014 6:32 pm

    Two CF’s? I’m not sure there’s another CF in the M’s system.

  2. Westside guy on July 22nd, 2014 7:10 pm

    Two CF’s? I’m not sure there’s another CF in the M’s system.

    Marc, you were warned to stay away from the brown acid…

  3. alfredodm on July 22nd, 2014 7:12 pm

    We might just be splitting hairs if we’re debating on the marginal upgrade Hart or Montero would give over the other moving forward, at least for the remainder of the season.

    I would keep Hart, hope for some regression to the mean (he’s better than what he’s shown in the past month), and make Montero truly earn his promotion by improving and not by a process of elimination.

    I’m assuming, of course, these two are our only options at DH.

  4. Eastside Suds on July 22nd, 2014 7:22 pm

    Okay, I’m sorry, but I can’t mix words here. This deGrom dude has a horrible sense of style if he thinks that hair is attractive. YIKES!!

  5. kimalanus on July 22nd, 2014 7:32 pm

    I dunno, kinda has a 70′s disco cute vibe for me…. Lotta guys in the yearbook that looked like that.

  6. Eastside Suds on July 22nd, 2014 7:34 pm

    Believe me, I know that look because I had that hair…..IN 1976!!!

  7. kimalanus on July 22nd, 2014 7:35 pm

    Not me. Not enough curl…. Mid length with the Tony Orlando pornstache.

  8. MrZDevotee on July 22nd, 2014 7:40 pm

    ” The issue is can he avoid the mistakes that have cost him against big league teams.”

    And he grooves an 0-2 fastball belt high and center of the plate… 1-0 Mets. No help from Jones’ bad play, but you can’t make that pitch in the majors. Ever. You just can’t. That pitch might cost him his starting spot.

  9. kimalanus on July 22nd, 2014 7:42 pm

    It is looking like the wheels are about to come off.

  10. Grayfox3d on July 22nd, 2014 7:45 pm

    Just say no to Erasmo.

  11. kimalanus on July 22nd, 2014 7:54 pm

    I don’t know anything about pitching but it looks to me like he has error bars of about a foot in any direction for the spot he’s aiming the pitch at. I think he made it through AA by just aiming at the middle and throwing hard but has never learned to spot consistently.

  12. Paul B on July 22nd, 2014 8:11 pm

    Are the Toys for Kids disguised as empty seats?

  13. Paul B on July 22nd, 2014 8:13 pm

    4 Ks in a row!

  14. Westside guy on July 22nd, 2014 8:15 pm

    Just tuned in… I remember that hair from when I was in high school!

  15. Paul B on July 22nd, 2014 8:16 pm

    Rangers and Yankees scoreless through 12. Go Rangers.

  16. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 8:17 pm

    Great pitch to Cano by Willie Ames.

  17. JasonJ on July 22nd, 2014 8:18 pm

    Yeah that hair is absurd. He looks like such a pansy.

  18. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 8:19 pm

    “Aames”

  19. MrZDevotee on July 22nd, 2014 8:20 pm

    “…by Willie Ames” cracked me up… Dude is pitching like there’s a date with Brooke Shields on a deserted island at stake.

  20. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 8:21 pm

    Hart sometimes looks like he decided which pitches to swing at – while standing in the on deck circle. He misses pitches by over a foot, frequently.

  21. MrZDevotee on July 22nd, 2014 8:22 pm

    Oh wait, Willie was in “Paradise” with Phoebe Cates… Not “Blue Lagoon”… My bad.

  22. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 8:24 pm

    Christopher Atkins is the guy you are thinking of.

    You are now operating in the teen years of my knowledge wheels house, although I actually had to go back and google hammer the intel. I knew it wasn’t Willie Aames, though.

  23. rlharr on July 22nd, 2014 8:24 pm

    Hey, I just noticed that Ryan Feierabend is pitching for Texas – he pitched from 2006-8 for the Mariners (not well at all), but hasn’t been in the majors since. There’s probably a good story there….

  24. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 8:27 pm

    All converted catchers should probably just wear their mask in the field – for a short transitional period. Liner off the face of the bonus baby.

    Ouch!

  25. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 8:29 pm

    I am heading up to the game tomorrow. Third row behind the “s” of the mariners dugout. Kinda lucky that Walker will be pitching. At least I think it is kinda lucky. I will stress “fastball command” from my perch. I am sure he will appreciate it.

  26. Eastside Suds on July 22nd, 2014 8:34 pm

    Erasmo must be just panicked out there knowing his future with the M’s may be on the line. And, I agree that he can not pitch at this level throwing belt high, center cut 0-2 fastballs. Besides, Lloyd doesn’t like him.

  27. Westside guy on July 22nd, 2014 8:34 pm

    Willie Ames was the dude from Eight is Enough, right?

  28. Eastside Suds on July 22nd, 2014 8:35 pm

    Can we just have WFB hit all the time? Noooo, what am I saying? Are we that offensively challenged?

  29. Paul B on July 22nd, 2014 8:35 pm

    Over at Fangraphs there is an article about the top 10 prospects by projected WAR. The top 2 are Mariner prospects and neither is the one I expected.

  30. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 8:36 pm

    Lloyd was mumbling some f-bombs last inning and I am pretty sure it was in regard to Erasmo or his pitch selection/location. The camera caught him from the side. Anybody else notice that? Maybe it was in regard to the ump. Not sure.

  31. Westside guy on July 22nd, 2014 8:36 pm

    Looks like it’s Aames not Ames.

  32. Eastside Suds on July 22nd, 2014 8:36 pm

    Yes….Tommy Bradford

  33. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 8:36 pm

    Two good ab’s by Ackley tonight.

  34. MrZDevotee on July 22nd, 2014 8:36 pm

    Willie Boom Boom, Endy and Ackley are some hitting machines these past few days…

    Damn.

  35. Paul B on July 22nd, 2014 8:37 pm

    Eastside, yes. Yes we are.

  36. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 8:37 pm

    Hitting machines, huh.

    All things are relative, I suppose.

  37. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 8:39 pm

    Zunino has some vexing at bat outcomes.

    I consider myself “vexed”!!!

  38. Westside guy on July 22nd, 2014 8:40 pm

    Boom Boom is on fire lately.

  39. Westside guy on July 22nd, 2014 8:41 pm

    I’m sure McLendon shares your vexation, Mike.

  40. Westside guy on July 22nd, 2014 8:41 pm

    Hey, Dustin!

  41. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 8:41 pm

    Tommy Bradford says “1 is enough.”

  42. MrZDevotee on July 22nd, 2014 8:44 pm

    Mike-
    By “machines” I meant Crossman BB-gun machines.

  43. Eastside Suds on July 22nd, 2014 8:46 pm

    That’ll put your eye out kid!!

  44. Will on July 22nd, 2014 8:48 pm

    Where the hell was that pitch?

  45. MrZDevotee on July 22nd, 2014 8:48 pm

    Willie just passed James Jones and Kyle Seager for 2nd highest batting average on your Seattle Mariners. (Currently at .282)

  46. Eastside Suds on July 22nd, 2014 8:48 pm

    E-Ram actually not bad tonight. Certainly giving us a chance to win. Wonder if this is a spot start as much as it is an advertisement for a trade add-on.

  47. MrZDevotee on July 22nd, 2014 8:48 pm

    I think it’s safe to say this is Erasmo’s last start this season.

    Try to keep it close, son.

  48. MrZDevotee on July 22nd, 2014 8:50 pm

    Eastside-
    I think Endy is more of a Leg Lamp sort of machine?

  49. Eastside Suds on July 22nd, 2014 8:51 pm

    With Walker and hopefully Paxton returning, I don’t think there is any doubt.

  50. MrZDevotee on July 22nd, 2014 8:52 pm

    Zunino showing that IS actually possible to herd cats this evening… Don’t know how he’s getting some of these…

  51. Eastside Suds on July 22nd, 2014 8:52 pm

    F R A G I L E. Must be Italian

  52. MrZDevotee on July 22nd, 2014 8:53 pm

    (laughing out loud)
    I forgot the “must be Italian” line… Awesome movie.

    The little brother packed into the snowsuit is classic too. (Maybe that’s Ackley? Remember his layers of clothing commercial?)

  53. Eastside Suds on July 22nd, 2014 8:56 pm

    Well….couldn’t ask much more of Erasmo tonight. That’s about as good as he gets. Let’s get some runs now.

  54. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 8:56 pm

    We are old

  55. Eastside Suds on July 22nd, 2014 8:57 pm

    Yes we are. loved when his mom made him eat soap for swearing.

  56. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 8:59 pm

    Lower case “d” is throwing to lower case “d.”

    They look like upside down P’s, but whatever.

    Screw them both. I want some runs.

  57. MrZDevotee on July 22nd, 2014 9:06 pm

    Two words: “tongue” “pole”

  58. Westside guy on July 22nd, 2014 9:06 pm

    Deck the hars with bows of horry ra ra ra ra ra, ra ra ra ra

  59. Eastside Suds on July 22nd, 2014 9:07 pm

    Get rid of him!!!

  60. MrZDevotee on July 22nd, 2014 9:07 pm

    Does Hart have any options left? (Kidding, but he needs to go work on things somewhere that it doesn’t count…)

  61. Eastside Suds on July 22nd, 2014 9:07 pm

    lMAO @ Westy

  62. MrZDevotee on July 22nd, 2014 9:08 pm

    Awww, yes… The Asian restaurant Christmas dinner.

    It’s such a great movie in that you love it as a kid, and as you get older you understand more of it, and it actually gets better– but still lets you reminisce about childhood…

    Very baseball like in that regard.

  63. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 9:11 pm

    Decapitated ducks or having to watch Corey Hart at bats. Which is more gruesome?

  64. Eastside Suds on July 22nd, 2014 9:12 pm

    Make a trade Mr. Z. I TRIPLE-dog-dare ya!

  65. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 9:13 pm

    Corey Hart at bats or Jesus Montero running. Which one is more gruesome?

  66. Westside guy on July 22nd, 2014 9:13 pm

    Is that a trick question, Mike?

  67. MrZDevotee on July 22nd, 2014 9:14 pm

    Hmmmm… That’s a tough one. I definitely like ducks more than Corey Hart, but his at-bats are pretty gruesome.

  68. Eastside Suds on July 22nd, 2014 9:14 pm

    At least if we see Jesus running, it means he made contact. We don’t even get to see that with Hart.

  69. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 9:14 pm

    Jesus Montero running or 24 straight hours of “As Christmas Story” on TBS. Which one is more gruesome.

  70. Eastside Suds on July 22nd, 2014 9:15 pm

    Easy…..Jesus running

  71. MrZDevotee on July 22nd, 2014 9:15 pm

    Jesus Montero running, or decapitated ducks running? Which is more gruesome…?

  72. californiamariner on July 22nd, 2014 9:15 pm

    Pretty good stuff from Erasmo.

  73. MrZDevotee on July 22nd, 2014 9:17 pm

    Given how wild he was most of the night, Erasmo’s stat line is a minor miracle. Can’t argue he didn’t do his job for the night. A Jones misplay or we might be ahead right now and he’d have a shutout.

  74. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 9:18 pm

    I hypothesize that watching 24 straight hours of that movie is more gruesome than watching Jesus Montero sprint down the first base line 24 times – although, ironically, they would take approximately the same amount of time.

  75. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 9:19 pm

    Jesus Montero could be worse than Hart, but it would be hard for him to do it.

    I think.

  76. Westside guy on July 22nd, 2014 9:19 pm

    Oh snap.

  77. Eastside Suds on July 22nd, 2014 9:20 pm

    LOL@ Mike. You may be right!

  78. Eastside Suds on July 22nd, 2014 9:20 pm

    Someone needs to be tonight’s hero. Who’s it going to be?

  79. MrZDevotee on July 22nd, 2014 9:20 pm

    Mike
    Be realistic… Watching Montero run the 21st, 22nd, 23rd, and 24th times down the first baseline would be more gruesome than anything the world has seen to this point. The 24th time alone would probably take as long as a 24 hour movie marathon.

  80. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 9:22 pm

    So, Zunino has 5 k’s and a short popup since hitting that bomb last night. Is that correct?

    Fuck!!!

  81. MrZDevotee on July 22nd, 2014 9:23 pm

    Why does this feel like we’re losing to a Little League World Series team? Cocky little long-haired 12 year old just flingin’ ‘em up there, and we hack away hopelessly. I bet the right fielder can’t even catch. But we’ll never know ’cause nobody can hit the ball out of the infield.

  82. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 9:24 pm

    I think it was Eastside who was repeatedly clamp ring for the mariners to sign Kurt Suzuki in the offseason. Is that correct?

    I kinda thought they might do it, but I also kinda felt like they did not want to sign a better player as the backup.

  83. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 9:26 pm

    So, yeah … Most guys my age would have liked a shot at tatum o’neill in 1977.

    Not now

    Focus Mr Z. We need some of that Rob Roy magic.

  84. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 9:27 pm

    See … Focus!

  85. MrZDevotee on July 22nd, 2014 9:27 pm

    Can we trade for that guy? Maybe Corey Hart and some ducks?

  86. MrZDevotee on July 22nd, 2014 9:28 pm

    I lifted my kilt for that one, didn’t seem to help though.

  87. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 9:30 pm

    Boy, I didn’t word that very well. Most guys in 1977 (who are my age now) …

    Save the whales.

    Love everybody.

    Peace, love, dope …

  88. MrZDevotee on July 22nd, 2014 9:30 pm

    Luckily, I know how to play Butterfield’s Lullaby (ie, “Taps”) on a field snare drum, if it comes to that in the 9th…

  89. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 9:32 pm

    Mel Gibson doing field research for brave heart – asked a Scottish dude – in a mean dude bar – what he wore under his kilt.

    The answer: “your wife’s lipstick”!!

    Best line ever.

  90. MrZDevotee on July 22nd, 2014 9:33 pm

    Mike-
    I forget the comedian, but somebody does a skit about “Of COURSE I want to sleep with 15 year old girls… That’s WHY there are laws against it… You don’t need laws against things nobody wants to do…”

    (Kinda sick, but kinda funny… Like Scotland…)

  91. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 9:36 pm

    Peace, love, dope!

  92. Mariner.lovechild on July 22nd, 2014 9:38 pm

    They’re batting like sissies up there. Score some runs.

  93. MrZDevotee on July 22nd, 2014 9:40 pm

    I wonder if Cano is still not 100%? He’s looked pretty awful tonight… Wouldn’t be surprised if he gets tomorrow off again, and Willie plays 2nd.

  94. juneau_fan on July 22nd, 2014 9:40 pm

    You can tell how the game’s going by the thread…

    *cocking brow at all of you all*

    The radio side is already talking about tomorrow’s game; they’ve moved on.

    “It’s a match up and The Kid and…” The longest pause I’ve ever heard. Colon does tend to give you pause, doesn’t he?

    Colon is “40″. If he’s 40, I’m 22.

  95. Eastside Suds on July 22nd, 2014 9:42 pm

    Yep Mike, I did. People were probably getting tired of it, but Suzuki could’ve been signed on the cheap. He’s had a hell of a year.

  96. Eastside Suds on July 22nd, 2014 9:44 pm

    And yeah, Mike would be the back up, but what a backup he would be. He was rushed anyway and it would have taken a lot of the pressure off of him.

  97. MrZDevotee on July 22nd, 2014 9:47 pm

    Devil’s advocate: But what if Suzuki wasn’t as good with the pitchers as Zunino has been? And who’s to say how well his season would be going if he was in Seattle?

    (No idea either way, just throwing it out there…)

  98. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 9:49 pm

    Lady in the house alert!

    Rest easy Juneau, Colon is 41. You don’t have to be 22 now.

  99. MrZDevotee on July 22nd, 2014 9:52 pm

    Juneau-
    Just don’t be 15. Trust me on this one.

  100. juneau_fan on July 22nd, 2014 9:52 pm

    Colon is totally one of those Satchel Paige sorta guys when he finally dies, we’re going to find out he’s actually 94.

    The Mets are worse than the Astros for the ‘so that’s where so-and-so ended up!”

    Abreu? I thought he was dead. Remember when everyone was fighting over signing him, just like three years ago?

  101. juneau_fan on July 22nd, 2014 9:52 pm

    Thank you for protecting my honor, Mr. Z. I knew that I could count on you.

  102. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 9:54 pm

    Sometimes the camera pans away too quickly.

  103. Jake on July 22nd, 2014 9:56 pm

    Yes, it sure does. She will be dancing the rally jig in my heart for a long time.

  104. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 9:57 pm

    On boy … Corey Hart.

    Corey Hart lady and gentleman.

    Corey Hart!

  105. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 9:58 pm

    Yes Jake, that was definitely a “gif”-able moment.

  106. MrZDevotee on July 22nd, 2014 10:00 pm

    (starts into Taps…)

    Taijuan at noon tomorrow. Get ‘em, kid.

  107. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 10:00 pm

    Well that sucked.

  108. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 10:04 pm

    If Ackley could just produce .270/.340/430 with a .330 ish wOBA – over a whole season, I think everyone would be fine with him. It’s in there somewhere. I hope he locks into it and makes it happen – in Seattle.

  109. Woodcutta on July 22nd, 2014 10:05 pm

    For some reason I have this feeling Ramirez has a fragile psyche. If that is the case then yo-yoing him from AAA to MLB and back again probably isn’t the best thing for him. Then again, the M’s aren’t exactly known to do the smart thing at times.

  110. Woodcutta on July 22nd, 2014 10:05 pm

    For some reason I have this feeling Ramirez has a fragile psyche. If that is the case then yo-yoing him from AAA to MLB and back again probably isn’t the best thing for him. Then again, the M’s aren’t exactly known to do the smart thing at times.

  111. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 10:07 pm

    In getting the feeling that Ramirez has a fragile psyche.

  112. Woodcutta on July 22nd, 2014 10:09 pm

    Wow a double post when clicking “Submit Comment” once. Either that or it is time to get some sleep.

  113. msfanmike on July 22nd, 2014 10:09 pm

    He’s got to go back down, but he had a pretty good game and it’s something to work from. He showed he has some value – and that shows progress, so that’s good news.

  114. The_Waco_Kid on July 22nd, 2014 10:14 pm

    Hey, if we only had Price, we coulda lost 2-1! Seriously, get a bat! We can’t expect to win every postseason game 1-0.

  115. seattleslew on July 22nd, 2014 11:00 pm

    Zobrist, Marte, Byrd… hurry up, Jack. These games are getting old.

  116. The_Waco_Kid on July 22nd, 2014 11:44 pm

    Our old sofa is now in storage in Tacoma. Perfect time to upgrade to a reasonably priced one at Ikea, Jack.

  117. MrZDevotee on July 23rd, 2014 8:30 am

    Waco-
    Nah, Jack likes to go out and buy some custom built thing that was $25,000 about 20 years ago, available for $50 now, and is down to it’s last thread of life, and if you lean on it in the right direction, when the temperature is just right in the room, you might– MIGHT- not fall through to the floor and bump your ass. (Sweeney, Griffey, Cust, Hart, Ibanez, Bay, Byrne, Bradley all say “hello”… Richie Sexson probably sits by his phone with his fingers crossed)

  118. sawsatch on July 23rd, 2014 9:15 am

    Not the first time Mike B. points out that Mike Z. misses grooved fast balls.

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