Game 104, Orioles at Mariners

marc w · July 26, 2014 at 12:55 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

Chris Young vs. Bud Norris, 1:10pm

Well that was frustrating. The M’s made Kevin Gausman look incredible, and they couldn’t convert several chances to knock a run in, forcing the game to extra innings. Kendrys Morales had the M’s sole RBI, but a late game K against lefty Brian Matusz left a sour taste; he’s still looking a bit rusty, and it’s basically August.

Today’s match up features Bud Norris, the Astros big trade chip last year. With Houston, he posted above-average strikeout numbers, but his overall RA9 was never all that impressive. Some of this came from the fact that he was pitching in front of a glorified AAA team for the past several years, and some of it comes from his park-driven home run problems. But as a guy with solid fastball velocity and a good slider, he was always going to be an intriguing buy for some team. In the end, the Orioles got him for LJ Hoes and Josh Hader, though the trade will probably be remembered as one of the first baseball deals involving draft picks. The Astros picked up the Orioles #3 pick in the competitive balance lottery (Houston selected UVA OF Derek Fisher), and traded international draft pool allocation money to even things out a bit.

With the Orioles, Norris is suddenly throwing much harder; his four-seam velocity is up to 94.5, two full MPH over where he was in 2012. But this hasn’t actually helped his K rate, which has tumbled this year to 17.3% – it was 22.5% in 2012. The culprit is Norris’ slider, which he throws a lot. To righties, he throws nearly 40% sliders, mixing in a very rare change. He’ll throw the change-up more often to lefties, as you’d imagine, but he still throws the slider over 20% of his pitches – pitch-type platoon splits be damned. Overall, Norris has struggled against lefties – the wOBA gap is pretty severe, and the FIP splits are perhaps even larger, at over one full run per 9IP. This year, though, he’s not shown any. That may be a blip, but it’s a big reason his ERA/RA9 is suddenly average-to-good, while his strikeout rate and HR rate push his FIP over 4.5. There’s a lot of BABIP in his solid results, but it really does look like the Orioles have changed his approach. He’s pitching to contact more, which has helped push his walk rate down along with the K’s. The FIP suggests it might not be worth it, but for now, the Orioles have to be happy with the deal. It’s not exactly the Astros dumping JD Martinez for nothing, but it’s perhaps another example that the Astros vaunted process has its flaws.

1: Jones, CF
2: Ackley, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Morales, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Hart, RF
7: Morrison, 1B
8: Miller, SS
9: Sucre, C
SP: Young

Go M’s.

Comments

62 Responses to “Game 104, Orioles at Mariners”

  1. Dennisss on July 26th, 2014 1:10 pm

    I have decided that the good side of the Mariners offense is that they can keep their offensive talent together going forward. Cano is here for 10 years, Seager and Saunders are under control for at least a couple.

    And since that is the sum total of their offensive talent, they’re set.

  2. BillyJive on July 26th, 2014 1:15 pm

    Hey M’s score some runs today ok?? Thanks.

  3. Westside guy on July 26th, 2014 1:21 pm

    Hart is in right? That doesn’t seem like a good idea – and I’m not even talking about his sub-par defense.

    Dennisssssss, I like how you captured the essential problems with the team while also hitting on one of the few bright spots they have, going forward.

  4. Will on July 26th, 2014 1:32 pm

    Looking at the M’s updated playoff odds is like looking at a test I bombed that brought my grade down from an A to a C. It’s getting uglier by the day.

  5. Grayfox3d on July 26th, 2014 1:55 pm

    You know things have gone bad when you already chalk it up as a loss if the other team scores a run or two first.

  6. Eastside Suds on July 26th, 2014 1:55 pm

    The M’s lineup against a “grizzled veteran”. This could be Colon 2.0

  7. Westside guy on July 26th, 2014 2:05 pm

    I refuse to get my hopes up about Ackley. I’ve been burned too many times before.

  8. msfanmike on July 26th, 2014 2:06 pm

    Kendrys is going to get it done.

  9. msfanmike on July 26th, 2014 2:07 pm

    … By just standing in the way.

    We will take it!

  10. Eastside Suds on July 26th, 2014 2:08 pm

    Good thing check swings aren’t reviewable

  11. Eastside Suds on July 26th, 2014 2:10 pm

    I have tears in my eyes actually seeing a hard hit ball. That was a beautiful thing man. Just beautiful.

  12. msfanmike on July 26th, 2014 2:11 pm

    This is the perfect time for Hart to get his bi-weekly hit.

  13. msfanmike on July 26th, 2014 2:12 pm

    Booooooo!

    How can he watch that pitch?

  14. Eastside Suds on July 26th, 2014 2:12 pm

    Tough to see Cory go through this. Harder for us to go through this. Just can’t see how we can continue with Mr. Hart.

  15. Eastside Suds on July 26th, 2014 2:15 pm

    You gotta be friggin kidding me. How does the third base coach still have his job? Last night with Chavez and now this F-up? Really?

  16. msfanmike on July 26th, 2014 2:15 pm

    Sweet baserunning or base coaching.

    Again

    Sweet!

    Fucking ass-clownery at the hot corner area of the field. Morales has to be sent after the ball went through Cruz’ legs.

  17. Grayfox3d on July 26th, 2014 2:16 pm

    Hey lets send Kendrys on a ball hit to Nelson Cruz! nice aggressive job!

  18. Eastside Suds on July 26th, 2014 2:16 pm

    This is not rocket surgery men!

  19. msfanmike on July 26th, 2014 2:17 pm

    All on the 3B coach. He didn’t see the ball. Pretty much the thing he has to see

    It’s no longer Datz over there. Who is it, now?

  20. Eastside Suds on July 26th, 2014 2:20 pm

    3rd base coach was totally out of position. He just stood there rather than back pedaling up the line, continuing to waive Kendrys home and making sure ball was fielded cleanly. You can always put the breaks on and return to 3rd if Cruz does his job. Horrible coaching mechanics. And Kyle never picked up Morales, which is inexcusable. This is little league stuff. Arghhhhhhh

  21. msfanmike on July 26th, 2014 2:29 pm

    Yep – that sums it up.

  22. Westside guy on July 26th, 2014 2:30 pm

    Glad I’m only half paying attention! Hehe but at least we are in the lead for once.

  23. Westside guy on July 26th, 2014 2:32 pm

    Haha, Kyle looked about four feet tall in that slo mo camera shot of his fist bump with Young.

  24. Eastside Suds on July 26th, 2014 2:34 pm

    Where would this team be without Chris Young? Scary to even think about.

  25. msfanmike on July 26th, 2014 2:41 pm

    Special shout out thanks to Westy.

  26. Will on July 26th, 2014 2:41 pm

    Did Krueger just say that Ackley will get to .300? He’s hitting .244…

  27. msfanmike on July 26th, 2014 2:43 pm

    Krueger did just say that. He gets overly excited and hyperbole’ish.

  28. msfanmike on July 26th, 2014 2:48 pm

    Bur Ackley has looked much better lately – and I would rather see him hitting second than Romero, jones or Chavez. Ackley supposedly made a minor tweak with his front leg and is stomping less – and landing more softly. Probably keeps his head/eyes from bouncing and gives him a better chance to square up pitches. Either that or he is just “hot” and will soon return to form.

  29. Will on July 26th, 2014 2:51 pm

    Everybody goes on a hot streak every now and then – let’s not forget that he had a 73 wRC+ in the first half. This is still a replacement level type of player.

  30. Eastside Suds on July 26th, 2014 2:52 pm

    Stride softly like you are stepping on an egg. As your trigger starts, get your front cleats in the ground. I’ve said it ten thousand times to my hitters.

  31. msfanmike on July 26th, 2014 2:53 pm

    Nobody can forget it, although it would be great if I could.

  32. Eastside Suds on July 26th, 2014 2:55 pm

    Did she just say “scrappling”?

  33. Will on July 26th, 2014 2:57 pm

    Is Kyle Seager worthy of being called a superstar? He’s projected to finish this season with +5.7 WAR, which isn’t too unreasonable even if you expect some level of regression down the stretch…

  34. Longgeorge1 on July 26th, 2014 3:06 pm

    Hasn’t Ackley had some good second halves the last two years? Good to see Taylor in there now, even though this AB not so hot. He might be better than AAAA

  35. Westside guy on July 26th, 2014 3:07 pm

    I’m not sure where the line is between star and superstar. I don’t think he’s a superstar, but he’s an excellent third baseman for sure.

  36. Westside guy on July 26th, 2014 3:15 pm

    Ackley wRC+ splits, going back:

    2014 first half: 73

    2013 second half: 128 (!!)
    2013 first half: 48

    2012 second half: 69
    2012 first half: 81

    2011 second half: 109
    2011 first half: 147

    So he did it once.

  37. Eastside Suds on July 26th, 2014 3:22 pm

    That first season was abbreviated because he didn’t start with us. And, you could easily notice his fatigue level in August/September that season as he played his first 162 plus ST go round’. The second season was ruined late by injury which Hargrove thought he could “tough it out”. So, there were viable reasons for late season decline both years. Hopefully last seasons’ 2nd half wasn’t an anomaly.

  38. Woodcutta on July 26th, 2014 3:31 pm

    Was it me or did the third base coach try and waive Morales home but Morales just decided to stop and not look towards home. If that is the case then Morales better hit over .300 with some power to have any value for the M’s.

  39. Westside guy on July 26th, 2014 3:32 pm

    They need to have a lottery fundraiser where the winners get to shave Ackley and Biemel.

  40. Longgeorge1 on July 26th, 2014 3:32 pm

    I guess I just replay any success by an M over and over in my mind. Thanks for the info. Let’s hope for a repeat of 2013. Farq appears to be trying to cement his role as the mop-up guy. Can’t we get one easy win?

  41. Westside guy on July 26th, 2014 3:38 pm

    I want Ackley to succeed – honestly, I do. But there have been so many instances where he’s started to look pretty good and then turned back into crap… I can’t let my hopes get raised again.

  42. Westside guy on July 26th, 2014 3:39 pm

    Dammit, come ON you guys…

  43. Westside guy on July 26th, 2014 3:42 pm

    Oh thank goodness.

  44. Woodcutta on July 26th, 2014 3:43 pm

    Oh look, A.J. Pierzynski already has a 3 hit day. Yeah, the M’s couldn’t have used him.

  45. Westside guy on July 26th, 2014 3:43 pm

    By way of positive news, apparently Condor has been allowed to start taking indoor BP.

  46. Westside guy on July 26th, 2014 3:51 pm

    I could really use a low stress ninth, Rodney.

  47. Eastside Suds on July 26th, 2014 3:51 pm

    We need him back so badly.

  48. msfanmike on July 26th, 2014 3:52 pm

    Hargrove? Is that the famous Richie sexton Hargrove you are referring to?

    Wedge, coach … Wedge!

    And in regard to the 3B coach: he initially held Kendrys. Then he sent him well after Cruz had leg the ball get by. Then he pointed back to 3B and shrugged. The 3B coach screwed the pooch and he knew it. Morales is a horrible base runner but he didn’t make the mistake on that particular play.

  49. Woodcutta on July 26th, 2014 3:52 pm

    Come on, Rodney. No messin’ around.

  50. Eastside Suds on July 26th, 2014 3:54 pm

    Yes, Wedge I meant of course.

  51. msfanmike on July 26th, 2014 3:55 pm

    That’s better. Don’t let it happen again.

  52. msfanmike on July 26th, 2014 3:55 pm

    I only kid because I care

  53. Eastside Suds on July 26th, 2014 3:56 pm

    Problem was, he held him to early. Why slow a guy down coming to third when the ball hasn’t been touched by the outfielder yet? That is incorrect procedure for any coach at any level.

  54. Eastside Suds on July 26th, 2014 3:57 pm

    And, I take it because I know how much you care Mike!

  55. Eastside Suds on July 26th, 2014 4:00 pm

    Deep breaths

  56. msfanmike on July 26th, 2014 4:00 pm

    Woooohoooo!

  57. Eastside Suds on July 26th, 2014 4:00 pm

    Finally. Wow.

  58. Westside guy on July 26th, 2014 4:01 pm

    How does anyone “slow down” Kendrys Morales? ;-)

  59. Westside guy on July 26th, 2014 4:01 pm

    Yay!

  60. pgreyy on July 26th, 2014 4:01 pm

    Well…THAT’S one way to finish off a game…

  61. msfanmike on July 26th, 2014 4:01 pm

    No replay review? Why not … He was out by fewer than 20′

  62. msfanmike on July 26th, 2014 4:06 pm

    I think Hargrove Sexton could probably slow down a Kendrys Morales. The mariners must find such a person.

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