Game 108, Mariners at Indians

marc w · July 31, 2014 at 12:29 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

Chris Young vs. Zach McAllister, 4:05pm

It’s the trade deadline! The M’s upgraded their offense by picking up OF Chris Denorfia for Abe Almonte and MiLB RP Stephen Kohlscheen. That’s…that’s not going to grab you many headlines even on a quiet trade deadline day, but it’s going to get lost after the A’s made yet another blockbuster, sending OF Yoenis Cespedes to Boston in exchange for SP Jon Lester. The A’s postseason rotation is going to be fearsome, and Cespedes would’ve been gone after 2015 anyway – he also can’t be offered a qualifying offer, so no draft pick to Boston. The A’s also picked up Sam Fuld, the OF they waived a few months ago, for SP Tommy Milone. Milone didn’t have a place after the LAST A’s blockbuster, but that’s a terrible return for a cheap, back of the rotation starter that gave the A’s around 450 innings of average-ish performance.

Asdrubal Cabrera’s now a National, Gerardo Parra went to the Brewers, and David Price and Marlon Byrd haven’t moved anywhere yet. Denorfia’s 34, and suffering through an abysmal season with San Diego, but he’s been an effective platoon bat as recently as last year. He can also play all OF positions, so some are excited about the possibility of seeing less Endy Chavez as early as tomorrow. I can see the M’s platooning the two, so we’ll have to see. The M’s will need to make a 25-man move to get Denorfia up, so we’ll see.

Stephen Kohlscheen’s got some very good K:BB ratios in the minors, but he doesn’t have big time velocity or a wipe-out breaking ball. Jason Parks was underwhelmed, but others see him as a near-MLB ready 6th-7th inning guy. For the M’s, though, he’s buried at the moment. Hefty MLB-vet Todd Coffey’s tearing up the PCL right now, and reports have his velocity sitting in the mid-90s. Forrest Snow’s continuing his resurgent season following suspension, and of course Brandon Maurer’s transformation into a bona fide MLB bullpen ace looks just about complete.

Zach McAllister’s ERA’s up well over a run this year, but his FIP has actually declined from what looked like a breakout 2013. He’s a four-seam, cutter/slider/change guy with zero platoon splits (in his career, his FIP v. lefties = 4.05, while his FIP v. righties = 4.05). He’s looked decent at times, especially as he’s picked up some velocity – he’s now averaging nearly 94mph on his FB – but so-so control and the lack of an out-pitch limits his upside. He’ll always be the guy who lost to Anthony Vasquez in his MLB debut to me.

Today’s line-up:
1: Ackley, LF
2: Taylor, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Morales, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Zunino, C
7: Morrison, 1B
8: Hart, RF
9: Chavez, CF
SP: Chris Young

Comments

146 Responses to “Game 108, Mariners at Indians”

  1. Dennisss on July 31st, 2014 12:37 pm

    I think Billy Beane is finally going to put the A’s over the top this year, call his quest for beating the richer teams a complete and thorough victory, then quit the A’s and come to work for a franchise that seriously needs help…

    Hey, it could happen.

  2. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 12:55 pm

    Just announced… Price going to Tigers, in 3-way trade with Seattle, Tampa, Detroit… No other players announced yet.

    TELL US WHO!!!!

    (edit)
    Now added: Austin fucking Jackson… Just pulled LIVE from Detroits day game, shaking hands with teammates… Headed to Seattle Mariners…

    Nice.

    Rays get Nick Franklin and Drew Smyly…

  3. JasonJ on July 31st, 2014 1:00 pm

    Nick Franklin goes to Tampa along with Drew Smyly. M’s get Jackson, Tigers get Price.

  4. Seattleguy527 on July 31st, 2014 1:01 pm

    Jackson and Smyly for Franklin?? Either I’m overrating those two or Franklin had more trade value than I thought.

  5. Seattleguy527 on July 31st, 2014 1:02 pm

    Oh SOB, nevermind… they updated it. Smyly going to Tampa.

  6. JasonJ on July 31st, 2014 1:02 pm

    No, Tampa gets Smyly. We basically traded Franklin for Austin Jackson.

  7. Westside guy on July 31st, 2014 1:04 pm

    The big question is what happens when Saunders gets back. If Denorfia gets playing-time precedence over Saunders that’s just stupid.

  8. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 1:04 pm

    So to sum it up…

    Nick Franklin and Abe Almonte just got swapped for:

    Austin Jackson &
    Chris Denorfia

    That works for me…

  9. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 1:05 pm

    Westy-
    I think Denorfia and Ackley make a logical platoon (Denorfia a lifetime .300 hitter against lefties)… Or else Saunders and Ackley… Or a 3 man rotation… Play the hot bats…

  10. Westside guy on July 31st, 2014 1:08 pm

    Of course if Morales doesn’t come around, they could rotate guys through the DH slot I suppose – although Saunders is the only one of the group with any power at all…

    Denorfia has the same ISO as Brendan Ryan had his final year here. Jackson is a little better at .131.

    Value-wise it is a good trade. But, at least looking at UZR, Jackson is no better in CF than Saunders is. I was really hoping for a good defender! However I freely admit I don’t know who that could’ve been.

  11. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 1:08 pm

    What do folks think about Lester for Cespedes? Anyone in contention, with frontline pitching, ever trade their cleanup hitter for another pitcher?

  12. JasonJ on July 31st, 2014 1:09 pm

    So Jackson is making $6 m this year and has one final year of arbitration in 2015 and is represented by Boras (of course). He’s not having a great year using traditional stats so he probably won’t get a huge raise for 2015.

    He seems to be anywhere from slightly below average defensively to slightly above average (trending downwards).

    Overall, I think we did pretty well considering that we didn’t have a spot for Franklin and he’s been pretty underwhelming.

  13. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 1:10 pm

    Westy,
    I think the value comes in Hart, Romero and Chavez not regularly taking up an OF spot on defense… Addition by subtraction, all that…

    Endy cost us a run just last night on a bad line on a line drive…

  14. Westside guy on July 31st, 2014 1:17 pm

    I hope so, MrZ – but I remember thinking Morales’ value was in part not having Hart in the lineup, and then Lloyd started running both of them out there!

  15. seattleslew on July 31st, 2014 1:25 pm

    Just when I think you couldn’t possibly be any dumber, you go and do something like this… and TOTALLY REDEEM YOURSELF!

    Maybe. We’ll see… but I like this move.

  16. bongo on July 31st, 2014 1:26 pm

    With Chris Taylor (who can play 2B as well as SS) up, there really was no slot for Franklin. Denorfia could platoon with Ackley in LF, but playing him instead of Saunders makes little sense. Austin Jackson will get playing time in CF, which probably means that Jones will sit on the bench or go down to Tacoma, baring an injury. Endy is probably off the roster.

    For the A’s, Lester, Fuld and Gomes for Cespedes and Milone (who hadn’t started since July 4) is probably a net positive for the rest of 2014. Next year, Beane is probably betting he can replace Cespedes’ estimated production (~3 WAR) for the same or less than his 2015 salary. So even if they don’t resign Lester and Gomes, it’s ok.

  17. Woodcutta on July 31st, 2014 1:30 pm

    bongo,

    It will be interesting to see what Fuld/Gomes do down stretch compared to Cespedes.

  18. jak924 on July 31st, 2014 1:41 pm

    Now we can be spared from the sight of James jones flailing away at pitched baseballs.

  19. JasonJ on July 31st, 2014 1:43 pm

    Chris Denorfia was worth 3.9 WAR last year…what in the world?

  20. Paul B on July 31st, 2014 1:57 pm

    I’m happy with these moves. The M’s just got an upgrade to Romero (platoon corner outfielder), plus a new centerfielder.

    Gave up Franklin and Almonte.

    That works for me…

    Yeah, me too.

  21. JMB on July 31st, 2014 1:58 pm

    Wait — that’s all it took to get Price?

  22. Paul B on July 31st, 2014 2:05 pm

    Now we can be spared from the sight of James jones flailing away at pitched baseballs

    My guess is it will be Romero plus either Jones or Endy who heads off to Tacoma.

  23. naviomelo on July 31st, 2014 2:05 pm

    bongo – Wish we could just find these ~3 WAR players for less than $10.5M!

  24. Ralph_Malph on July 31st, 2014 2:13 pm

    My guess is it will be Romero plus either Jones or Endy who heads off to Tacoma.

    My choice would be to send Romero and Endy down (or cut Endy). That leaves you with an OF of Ackley, Jackson, Denorfia and Jones, with Bloomquist as #5. Ackley and Jones are left handed, Jackson and Denorfia are right handed, and you can have a 3-way platoon of Ackley, Jones and Denorfia.

    I doubt Hart plays another inning in the OF this year. Then when Saunders comes back dump Hart.

    Finally, the M’s have a real outfield!

  25. G-Man on July 31st, 2014 2:18 pm

    Great return for Franklin given that they’d blocked him here. They’ll probably option Romero down, and either Jones goes down or Chavez is DFAed, with the other one going when Saunders returns. Looks like a lot more platooning could happen.

  26. mwb on July 31st, 2014 2:19 pm

    Wait — that’s all it took to get Price?

    No kidding. What’s the deal with that?

  27. Will on July 31st, 2014 2:23 pm

    Send Jones down to Tacoma, and keep Endy until Saunders returns from his rehab assignment in a couple of weeks. Then DFA Endy and run with four outfielders (Jackson, Ackley, Denorfia, Saunders) with Bloomquist as an emergency option out there.

  28. Paul B on July 31st, 2014 2:23 pm

    Isn’t Price a free agent after this year?

    The Rays think they got a middle of the rotation starter plus a middle infielder, for multiple years of team control.

  29. Pete Livengood on July 31st, 2014 2:25 pm

    “Wait — that’s all it took to get Price?, JMB, that’s what I was thinking. All this time I was under the impression that the M’s were offering Franklin (or Miller) and Walker (or Paxton) and the Rays weren’t budging. Granted, that was a deal that would have also included Zobrist coming back (and likely would have included some lesser prospects on our side as well), but if all it took was Franklin and Smyly, I can’t believe Jack wouldn’t have simply sidetracked that three-way deal and offered something better. Maybe it came down to really not wanting to give up Walker or Paxton, and realizing the need for offensive help was far greater than the need for pitching….

  30. Will on July 31st, 2014 2:25 pm

    Bench would look like Sucre, Bloomquist, Taylor/Miller and Denorfia/Ackley.

  31. Pete Livengood on July 31st, 2014 2:27 pm

    Paul B. – No. He is a free agent after *next* year.

  32. JasonJ on July 31st, 2014 2:28 pm

    Rays fans are pretty disappointed. I’m sure after all the talk of Cory Seager, Joc Pederson, Tai Walker, etc. they’ve got to feel like they didn’t get a whole lot. I actually like Smyly and he’s a young, proven performer but he’s not exactly sexy.

    For the M’s, I think this is good work from Jack Z. He didn’t mortgage the future and now we have an actual major league center fielder who isn’t an automatic out. After watching Almonte, Jones and Chavez I will take it in a heartbeat.

  33. Will on July 31st, 2014 2:32 pm

    Wait — that’s all it took to get Price?

    The return for Price is getting undersold because they didn’t receive any blue-chip prospects, but I’d call it a good deal for Tampa. They can’t afford the $18-20M Price is going to command in arbitration next season. They add two controlled major league-ready pieces in Smyly and Franklin in addition to Adames, who probably slots in as a top-5 prospect in the Rays’ depleted farm system.

  34. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 2:44 pm

    Will.
    I agree. The Rays whole point was to get out from under 18-20million in money owed next year… Basically they sold themselves the right to step out from under his contract a year early, and instead of him walking, they got back 3 players… So essentially they got 3 players and roughly $15-16 million in the deal.

    That’s how they’ve built for over a decade now. As a Mariner fan, it’s hard to argue with their methods, versus ours.

  35. Breadbaker on July 31st, 2014 3:11 pm

    We have methods?

  36. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 3:14 pm

    Exactly.

  37. BoomBoom on July 31st, 2014 3:17 pm

    We know when you’re working with the budget of the Rays, you have more balls in the air and have to keep turning the roster over and staying young.

    Adames is an 18 yr old playing his first year in America and doing it as the youngest player in full season A ball. He’s playing SS every day and his slash is .269/.346/.428. with a 9.8% BB rate.

    The Rays big league haul may not look that good for a talent like Price, but it’s not bad given their business model.

  38. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 3:20 pm

    And hey- it’s still better than trading 1/2 a year of Cliff Lee for Justin Smoak, right?

  39. Breadbaker on July 31st, 2014 3:28 pm

    Well, we also got an admitted rapist in the deal.

  40. bookbook on July 31st, 2014 3:28 pm

    Hey, we got 3.5 years of Justin Smoak out of that deal! And counting…

  41. bookbook on July 31st, 2014 3:29 pm

    Jackson CF
    Saunders RF
    Cano 2b
    Seager 3b
    Ackley/Denorfia LF
    Zunino c
    Miller/Taylor SS
    Morrison 1b
    Morales DH

  42. Westside guy on July 31st, 2014 3:30 pm

    So how come Jack can make decent three-way trades, but seems to generally suck at the simpler two-team deals?

  43. LongDistance on July 31st, 2014 3:34 pm

    First reaction: they did something. Second reaction: went to look up their current lines, because these guys (for me) came nearly literally out of LF. Third reaction: this is borderline intelligent — not to say it isn’t fully intelligent — but because it looks almost accidental, idiot savant territory. Tip of the hat to Jack.

    August, now at least, will remain fun.

    Go M’s.

  44. pdome01 on July 31st, 2014 3:40 pm

    Wheres a good place to go online to stream the game?

  45. G-Man on July 31st, 2014 3:42 pm

    Westy, maybe the other two GM’s put the deals together for him. All he had to do was say “Duh sure.”

    I was semi-serious, but to be more so, it does seem likely that Jack was the third guy in, as he wasn’t giving or getting Price. Giving up Jackson doesn’t seem to bad when you’re getting Price, and TB really wanted a cheap guy like Franklin instead of a 2nd-year-arb guy like Jackson. Maybe they wanted an IF instead of an OF, too.

  46. BoomBoom on July 31st, 2014 3:47 pm

    It will hopefully work itself out, but is anyone else worried that Mac likes Denorfia in RF? I would have thought when Condor comes back that Denorfia would platoon with Ackley.

    I’m over thinking this, I guess, since Saunders isn’t active, but I always get the feeling Mac doesn’t really believe in Saunders.

    I’m wrong, right?

  47. Ralph_Malph on July 31st, 2014 3:49 pm

    BoomBoom, I had the same reaction. Maybe with his shoulder problems, McClendon will have Saunders DH some after he gets back, but he doesn’t want to say that because Hart is still on the team for now. I think Hart’s days are numbered and would like to think he’ll go when Saunders comes back.

  48. Westside guy on July 31st, 2014 3:50 pm

    BoomBoom, given how often Saunders has lost playing time to others – I think it’s organizational, and I think it’s got more to do with him being a Bavasi pickup than anything else.

  49. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 3:51 pm

    bookbook-
    “3.5 years of Justin Smoak and counting”

    I can’t figure out if that’s an argument AGAINST that trade, or in support of that trade?

    (laugh)

  50. pgreyy on July 31st, 2014 4:03 pm

    Saunders can’t stay healthy and productive at the same time, Westy…

    I don’t get a sense that it’s organizational bias.

  51. Kazinski on July 31st, 2014 4:22 pm

    Shouldn’t really matter that Saunders is having nagging injury problems this year, until contract time that is.

    If he’s healthy he’s our best option in right field hands down, offensively and defensively, with base running skills to boot. So if he’s healthy he should be playing. And its not as if he’s been fragile over his career.

  52. BoomBoom on July 31st, 2014 4:22 pm

    I really like James Jones. I realize this is most likely irrational. One of my thoughts about the deals today, both of which I like, was that Jones should go back to Tacoma so he could continue playing every day.

    He’s athletic, fast, plays with the enthusiasm of Ernie Banks. Then, I look at the reality of his game. His speed is an asset, sure, but all too often in the outfield, that speed is bailing him out of jams incurred by his poor break on the ball and his terrible routes.

    Much is made by the media about his lack of experience in the outfield. I get that it wasn’t his first position, but he’s now had almost 500 games as a pro in the outfield.

    He’s not going to get a lot better out there, is he? No matter how much I want it to happen.

    Damn it.

  53. Paul B on July 31st, 2014 4:28 pm

    I seem to recall Lloyd saying that Saunders plays better with frequent days off. I have no idea whether that is true, but Saunders does seem fragile, so not playing him every day seems to be reasonable.

  54. Ralph_Malph on July 31st, 2014 4:30 pm

    Does anybody know how the roster works in this situation? They’ve acquired Jackson and Denorfia; are they on the active roster even if they haven’t arrived? Or are they just in limbo right now.

    Jackson got pulled from the game in Detroit; I’m thinking he could make it to Cleveland during this game. Last week Headley arrived at Yankee Stadium during a game and came in to pinch hit. But then they’d have to take someone off the roster during the game, which would be weird.

    I wondered if the fact Endy is starting in the OF means Jones is already off the active roster.

  55. Grayfox3d on July 31st, 2014 4:38 pm

    They dont have to make a move until tomorrow when they Officially Arrive, and one of the first moves i hope happen is Hart goes bye bye.

  56. Longgeorge1 on July 31st, 2014 4:40 pm

    Depending on who/if anyone gets hot with the bat, Ackley is not a bad option at first. We could get rid of LoMo or COHa

  57. Paul B on July 31st, 2014 4:41 pm

    Romero is obviously not needed now. Then the second person depends on which way they want to go.

  58. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 4:45 pm

    Romero and Chavez would seem most likely to leave…

    And the Ackley-at-first idea is interesting, when Saunders gets back.

  59. G-Man on July 31st, 2014 4:46 pm

    Ralph, I was wondering if Jackson could play, too. That’s a quick flight, even could be driven.

    I think someone else would have to come OFF the roster and him added before the game started, though.

  60. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 4:47 pm

    Lookey there… We make a couple of moves and the “game of inches” luck is in our favor already (Taylor’s off the glove single… And Endy’s off the glove single…).

  61. Paul B on July 31st, 2014 4:48 pm

    What was that?

    Ackley, you tease.

  62. Longgeorge1 on July 31st, 2014 4:48 pm

    We already have a Run? The trade is already working! Ack attack? I mean 3 runs!

  63. Longgeorge1 on July 31st, 2014 4:48 pm

    We already have a Run? The trade is already working! Ack attack? I mean 3 runs!

  64. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 4:48 pm

    See, that’s what a 1B should do… Ackley at 1B when Saunders gets back? (laugh) Hit the weight room on the off days?

  65. msfanmike on July 31st, 2014 4:49 pm

    That ball was smoked!

  66. Paul B on July 31st, 2014 4:49 pm

    Romero and Chavez would seem most likely to leave…

    I could see justification for sending Jones to Tacoma to play every day, and keeping Chavez until Saunders is back.

  67. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 4:50 pm

    I like watching Taylor swing… He holds a light bat and swings quick, free and easy… Plus the speed doesn’t hurt. But he doesn’t look overwhelmed at all. Good bat position, and a nice quick swing.

  68. JasonJ on July 31st, 2014 4:50 pm

    Ackley has good defensive metrics in LF actually per UZR. Don’t think we should mess with that.

    Also, McCallister is god-awful so let’s not read anything into this offensive explosion just yet.

  69. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 4:50 pm

    Paul-
    Actually that makes more sense– I already forgot about Jones. (Doh!) Yeah, definitely send Jones down to play everyday.

  70. Longgeorge1 on July 31st, 2014 4:52 pm

    Not to beat my drum but I did say I liked Taylor. He seemed pretty good in my trips to T-Town. He still has plenty of time to regress to another AAAA prospect. ( reality will set in)

  71. msfanmike on July 31st, 2014 4:52 pm

    You know mr Z, that is not a completely far-fetched idea. Ackley is bigger than Mattingly, but that is where the comparison between the two will end. I loved Donnie Baseball.

    He can play 1B, but I think they would need to get pretty far down on their list of options to really consider it, but not the worst idea I have ever heard.

  72. msfanmike on July 31st, 2014 4:53 pm

    Runs!

  73. Paul B on July 31st, 2014 4:54 pm

    Also, McCallister is god-awful so let’s not read anything into this offensive explosion just yet.

    I was thinking this too. Although, marc w in the blog post pointed out he is not actually horrible or anything.

  74. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 4:55 pm

    I like Kendrys’ sacrifice bunt… Only he can’t bunt so he just sticks the head of the bat out and turns it over to the right side… That was pretty funny. But effective.

  75. Westside guy on July 31st, 2014 4:57 pm

    McCallister may be awful, but it is nice to see this team actually taking advantage of an awful opposing pitcher rather than making him look like Lefty Grove.

  76. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 4:57 pm

    I would have sent him… With 4 runs… Keep the pressure on… So what if he’s out.

    But that’s me.

  77. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 4:58 pm

    I’m with Westy-
    I believe an awful pitcher threw a perfect game against us last year? (Okay, maybe not awful… But still…)

    I like seeing guys on base… The mix of colors out on the field…

  78. JasonJ on July 31st, 2014 5:02 pm

    Marc w would know better than me but I’ve watched a lot of him this year (fantasy baseball reasons) and he has been a dumpster fire most of the time. But his FIP is actually under 4 on fangraphs. Definitely looks to be some bad luck involved but I haven’t seen the M’s have that many hard hit balls in a month.

  79. Grayfox3d on July 31st, 2014 5:04 pm

    this game is gonna make my rip my hair out!

  80. msfanmike on July 31st, 2014 5:06 pm

    That high fastball doesn’t appear to be fooling Kipnis.

  81. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 5:07 pm

    Welcome Chris Denorfia…
    And your “routine catch” ability.
    SOON!

  82. ivan on July 31st, 2014 5:07 pm

    Goodbye, Corey. Nice try but no cigar. Enjoy your retirement. Best wishes.

  83. msfanmike on July 31st, 2014 5:07 pm

    Wow, nice play in RF by our really bad DH.

  84. JasonJ on July 31st, 2014 5:07 pm

    Things just keep getting worse for Corey Hart.

  85. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 5:09 pm

    Hart should ALSO get an RBI for that sac fly… (Runs Bungled In…)

    It’s a crime that Young takes an earned run on that, too (they scored it a triple).

  86. Longgeorge1 on July 31st, 2014 5:09 pm

    I like to throw things out there, like players changing position, it works for the A’s real well

  87. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 5:11 pm

    Corey Hart runs like there are two tiny elves holding his legs up at the knees, running him to where he wants to be… And his body is just WAY too big for the elves… Wobbly, whoa, ow, stumble, crumble… fall.

  88. JasonJ on July 31st, 2014 5:11 pm

    Hah! We should see if Dave can get runs bungled in added as a stat on fangraphs.

  89. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 5:12 pm

    Longgeorge…
    Being a Mariners fan, I like to throw things too. Oh wait, that’s not what you said…

    Anyways, yeah.

  90. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 5:16 pm

    I like Corey Hart though… He looks really frustrated with the player he has become. Not even comparing their batting, but reminds me a bit of Edgar when you knew he was close to done… His body just didn’t move anymore, you could hear it creaking and cracking when he tried to run the bases.

  91. Paul B on July 31st, 2014 5:16 pm

    Back at the peak in this game, the M’s had almost an 85% chance of winning.

  92. Westside guy on July 31st, 2014 5:17 pm

    “It’s a crime that Young takes an earned run on that, too (they scored it a triple).”

    The scorekeeper had just been reading that Blengino FanGraphs article regarding Young’s xFIP not matching his worth, so he decided to try remedying the situation.

  93. msfanmike on July 31st, 2014 5:24 pm

    So, when leading – the team has a better chance of winning than when the game is tied or when the team is losing. Those running % chance of winning calculations are awesome.

  94. msfanmike on July 31st, 2014 5:26 pm

    Is that information tied to a real time game betting line somewhere?

  95. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 5:27 pm

    I think certain teams, even with a huge lead, should have a cap on their winning chance…

    Like even with a 10 run lead, I don’t think the Mariners should be above, say, an 80% chance of winning. Maybe with 2 outs in the 9th, it can jump up to 85%.

  96. msfanmike on July 31st, 2014 5:30 pm

    I have to be honest, there is not a piece of available data that interests me less. But maybe that’s just me.

  97. JasonJ on July 31st, 2014 5:31 pm

    Should be the opposite. When the M’s go down 1-0 our chance to win should drop to like 7% whereas most teams it only drops to something like 42%.

  98. Paul B on July 31st, 2014 5:32 pm

    Is that information tied to a real time game betting line somewhere?

    Not that I know of, I just looked at fangraphs.

    I have to be honest, there is not a piece of available data that interests me less. But maybe that’s just me.

    No, you have company with Lloyd, for sure. No way he looks at win probabilities when he decides whether to call for a bunt.

  99. Paul B on July 31st, 2014 5:35 pm

    Boy I sure wish Cano would hustle!

    /sarcasm

  100. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 5:37 pm

    Mike-
    I was trying to be funny… Maybe I should have said the M’s should be capped at a 50% chance of winning, even with a 10 run lead. (laugh)

    I think Jason’s onto something though, with the 7% chance of winning if we’re down by 1.

  101. msfanmike on July 31st, 2014 5:39 pm

    Good shot, Paul … Yeah me and Lloyd are onesies on all matters.

    Good call. Well thought out.

    I said that piece of data does not interest me and that maybe it was just me, so feel free to blast off all you care to.

  102. Grayfox3d on July 31st, 2014 5:40 pm

    Wonder if Morales will hit consistently at all for us the rest of the season.

  103. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 5:42 pm

    The only time I look at win probabilities is when the final score is up.

  104. Paul B on July 31st, 2014 5:42 pm

    So Cano beats the pitcher to the bag, and then he steals his 8th base of the season.

    Looking good out there.

  105. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 5:43 pm

    Gray-
    I’d say he’s been hitting consistently since he first got here… (ba dum *cymbal crash*)

  106. Paul B on July 31st, 2014 5:44 pm

    Scott Atchison? who knew.

  107. msfanmike on July 31st, 2014 5:45 pm

    If we score a run here and then hold Cleveland scoreless for the rest of the game, I would have to put our chances of winning this game at 100%

  108. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 5:45 pm

    How many 49th round pitchers do you figure still have a pro baseball career 16 years later?

    Good for Atchison.

  109. msfanmike on July 31st, 2014 5:47 pm

    What were the % chances that Atchison would have been able to do that?

    And now that he has done it, what are the % chances?

  110. msfanmike on July 31st, 2014 5:49 pm

    5 regulation at bats remaining for the Indians and only 4 for the Mariners. Cleveland must have a better % chance Of winning a nine inning game, now. Oh noooo’s.

  111. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 5:50 pm

    I’d guess 0% when he started, and closer to 99% now that he’s done it. Maybe 99.9%, with a margin for error.

  112. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 5:51 pm

    Mike-
    Don’t forget we have 80% suckier batters than they do, so that leans it in their favor too. More at bats, and better hitters– we’ve already lost.

    Dammit.

  113. Paul B on July 31st, 2014 5:51 pm

    Yeah, Mike, we get it. Stats are worthless.

    Thanks for your insight.

  114. msfanmike on July 31st, 2014 5:52 pm

    They should roll out the tarp now! Just based on the percentages.

  115. msfanmike on July 31st, 2014 5:54 pm

    I do like the data as it applies to whether or not you should bunt – late in a game – to score a run.

    But providing the teams winning % chance in the third inning of a game kinda speaks for itself. IMO

    IMO, Paul … IMO.

  116. msfanmike on July 31st, 2014 5:56 pm

    Okay Paul, you win the thread. Cuz that’s exactly what I said.

  117. msfanmike on July 31st, 2014 6:11 pm

    Let’s not kill the thread because Paul and I got into a hair pulling cat fight.

  118. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 6:11 pm

    I thought it was funny.

    And Mike certainly has nothing against stats.

    Both of you, cut it out. 100%.

  119. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 6:12 pm

    All I’m saying is that everyone was getting along back when we had an 85% chance of winning.

    (sorry, couldn’t resist)

  120. msfanmike on July 31st, 2014 6:12 pm

    Come on Young – make it through this inning, clean.

  121. msfanmike on July 31st, 2014 6:42 pm

    The wafting arbiter … Run that nickname by your wife, Mr Z. A potential new username, to boot.

    Although, your “namesake” did have a pretty good day, today.

  122. msfanmike on July 31st, 2014 6:49 pm

    Perfectly shifted themselves to not get the DP

    Damn!

    Played the percentages, probably. Good process bad result. Or, simply a bad result.

  123. MrZDevotee on July 31st, 2014 7:04 pm

    Just sat down after dinner– and Mr. Zunino took the lead back! Woohoo…

  124. msfanmike on July 31st, 2014 7:05 pm

    Sweet!!!!

  125. Grayfox3d on July 31st, 2014 7:07 pm

    Corey Hart doesnt even look like he’s trying anymore.

  126. HighlightsAt11 on July 31st, 2014 7:10 pm

    Besides a relatively good month of May, this season Furbush has hurt the M’s more than he has helped.

  127. msfanmike on July 31st, 2014 7:11 pm

    I was hoping the Mariners would work out a deal that would have sent Hart to Milwaukee for just a little bit more than nothing.

  128. HighlightsAt11 on July 31st, 2014 7:11 pm

    Cliche repeat alert: When Zunino makes contact he hits the ball pretty well.

  129. pdome01 on July 31st, 2014 7:13 pm

    Does Zunino hit all his homeruns in the 8th inning

  130. Grayfox3d on July 31st, 2014 7:16 pm

    Pretty routine catch for Endy there, I bet Hart turns gives up a double there.

  131. Grayfox3d on July 31st, 2014 7:19 pm

    This Brandon Maurer kid is very studly coming out of the pen! I like it!

  132. msfanmike on July 31st, 2014 7:20 pm

    Beautiful last pitch by Maurer. He put that 0-2 pitch precisely where Zunino placed his glove. That was awesome!

  133. HighlightsAt11 on July 31st, 2014 7:21 pm

    Both Hart and Lomo have the same .207 BA. Hart has the better OBP and Lomo has the better SLG %. I did not look at FanGraphs WAR, etc.

    Oh I just see Hart was pulled from the game, for Jones. For defensive purposes or to give a head start to clean out his locker? Hopefully both.

    Jones to Tacoma tomorrow and Hart to DFA?

  134. Woodcutta on July 31st, 2014 7:22 pm

    Sometimes I wonder what Ackely is thinking at the plate.

  135. Grayfox3d on July 31st, 2014 7:22 pm

    I dont know what Ackley was doing that at bat, but every pitch was right down the pipe! Not a good at bat there, needs to change that if he wants to be consistant.

  136. msfanmike on July 31st, 2014 7:24 pm

    Ackley got worked. He must have been having a hard time picking the ball up out of the pitchers hand.

  137. Grayfox3d on July 31st, 2014 7:40 pm

    Rodney was nasty tonight! except that fastball to Santana he looked good!

  138. stevemotivateir on July 31st, 2014 7:42 pm

    That damn arrow is incredibly annoying. I’m happy for the win, but I could really do without the antics.

  139. Eastside Suds on July 31st, 2014 8:24 pm

    100% chance he continues to do that after a save. Just sayin’

  140. stevemotivateir on July 31st, 2014 8:35 pm

    85% chance we’ll see that again before a save.

  141. Sports on a Shtick on July 31st, 2014 9:48 pm

    GMZ got value for Almonte. That is amazing.

  142. Westside guy on August 1st, 2014 8:51 am

    Almonte hasn’t been completely hopeless in AAA. And he’s young. He probably has more value than someone like James Jones, who is several years older than Almonte is.

  143. MrZDevotee on August 1st, 2014 9:13 am

    I didn’t mind the arrow until Logan Morrison started joining in… Now it’s really annoying… It was one thing to have a quick little fake arrow shoot into the sky, but to then have a fake conversation about it is a bit overkill…

    Reason enough to send LoMo packing in my eyes. (Okay, maybe not… But close!)

  144. dc24 on August 1st, 2014 9:23 am

    Actually Almonte and Jones are both 25, but Jones will turn 26 in September.

  145. Westside guy on August 1st, 2014 10:28 am

    Almonte’s 25!? I thought he was 22-23! hahaha That’ll teach me to comment on anything related to the minor leagues.

    Well now, then – good job Jack Z!

    Seriously, I don’t get it. We can’t ignore all the bone-headed stuff he’s done over the past couple of years, but Jack made some pretty decent moves yesterday. I do wonder if G-Man is right – he was mostly handed them by Detroit and Atlanta; but still, he had to pull the trigger.

  146. dc24 on August 1st, 2014 11:12 am

    Haha yeah, I have to give Jack Z some credit too. I thought we did good yesterday.

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.