Game 125, Mariners at Phillies

marc w · August 20, 2014 at 9:42 am · Filed Under Mariners 

James Paxton vs. Cole Hamels, 10:05am
Wildcard Odds – Fangraphs.com: 42.0%. Baseballprospectus.com: 47.1%

Great pitching match-up on getaway day between two pitchers who were the subject of trade rumors this offseason and, a bit less often, before the deadline.

I’ve always found it a bit surprising that Hamels has faced 3-4 times more right handed bats than lefties over his career. As the owner of the NL’s best change up, it’s not like righties have some big advantage over him; in his career his splits are even to a bit more favorable to *lefties.* In any event, the M’s line up is a lot more stable right now, and it’s pretty balanced, with five RHBs starting today.

1: Jackson, CF
2: Taylor, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Morales, 1B
5: Seager, 3B
6: Denorfia, LF
7: Morrison, RF
8: Sucre, C
SP: Paxton

Comments

85 Responses to “Game 125, Mariners at Phillies”

  1. Seattleguy527 on August 20th, 2014 10:31 am

    I assumed Denorfia would be in the lineup, but I also assumed he would be in RF instead of Morrison. Not that Ackley is a worldbeater in LF by any means, but it seems to make a lot more sense to have Ackley in LF and Denorfia in right with Morrison getting the day off. Honest question — how many managers in MLB do you think appropriately value defense? I’m starting to think the answer is a handful, if that many.

  2. ivan on August 20th, 2014 10:32 am

    Well that should shut up the Morales-haters for an inning or two.

  3. Paul B on August 20th, 2014 10:32 am

    Kendrys? Off Hamels?

    Yowza!

  4. Paul B on August 20th, 2014 10:34 am

    I don’t hate Morales. I just wish we had a good hitter to be our DH.

    67 OPS+ this year.

    In 255 PA.

    For comparison, James Jones has a 71 OPS+. I don’t want Jones to be the DH. Smoak has an 80 OPS+. I don’t want Smoak to ever be a Mariner again.

  5. GhostofMarinersPast on August 20th, 2014 10:42 am

    ACK has a hurt BACK. supposedly just sore

  6. G-Man on August 20th, 2014 10:42 am

    When I saw Morrison in the lineup over Ackley, I was curious myself. Maybe in part to give Ackley a day off after a night game. I haven’t checked each of their results against Hamels. I note the intro here about Hamels, too.

    Ackley will probably be pinch-hitting eventually, either for Denorfria or for the pitcher.

  7. G-Man on August 20th, 2014 10:45 am

    Good job, LoMo. Really tough to judge a ball hit right at you.

  8. Seattleguy527 on August 20th, 2014 10:46 am

    Thanks for the info, Ghost. That makes a little more sense then. I guess Endy could be playing right instead of Morrison, but he’s 100 so maybe Lloyd is trying to take it easy on him.

  9. rjfrik on August 20th, 2014 10:51 am

    With the way Paxton is pitching. 1 run might be enough in this game. Paxton is turning into a hell of a #3 pitcher. His stuff is electric for a LHP

  10. Paul B on August 20th, 2014 10:57 am

    And Paxton is our #4 pitcher, if you buy into the miracle of Chris Taylor. But 3, 4, they both start the same number of games so it is just great to have good pitchers.

  11. Seattleguy527 on August 20th, 2014 11:04 am

    Looks like the bullpen will have to win this one. Paxton throwing a ton of pitches.

  12. G-Man on August 20th, 2014 11:07 am

    We’ll see Endy in RF and Morrison at 1B if we get a lead. I think that’s what they did last night. Ackley can play 1B, too, so lots of options for double-switch and pinch-hitting, if he is healthy enough to play.

  13. Seattleguy527 on August 20th, 2014 11:09 am

    Ugh. Two outs and couldn’t get out of the inning.

  14. Seattleguy527 on August 20th, 2014 11:22 am

    See, I told you Morrison should be in RF today!

  15. G-Man on August 20th, 2014 11:23 am

    Screwed-up squeeze. hoped Morrison would get to third….. especially now that Sucre got a hit.

  16. Seattleguy527 on August 20th, 2014 11:25 am

    Are you watching the game, G-Man? I’m curious how Denorfia didn’t score from 1st on a double to center and Morrison didn’t score from 2nd on a base hit by Sucre. With the pitcher coming up next, I can only assume he would have been out by 40 feet to not send him.

  17. msfanmike on August 20th, 2014 11:31 am

    Neither runner had a legitimate chance to score on either hit you mentioned.

  18. Seattleguy527 on August 20th, 2014 11:32 am

    Ok. Thanks, msfanmike.

  19. msfanmike on August 20th, 2014 11:34 am

    Marc, this site counts everything under the sun related to baseball and your detailed analysis gets down to an appreciated granular level of detail.

    Why can’t the number of games played to date be accurate?

    This is game #126.

  20. Will on August 20th, 2014 11:38 am

    Sucre’s not good enough to make dumb mistakes like this…

  21. naviomelo on August 20th, 2014 11:38 am

    It feels like we’re losing this game.

  22. msfanmike on August 20th, 2014 11:39 am

    Sucre whiffed on the catch. The pitch went through his legs. Flee you Gremlins!

  23. Will on August 20th, 2014 11:40 am

    Looks like we’re getting Wilhelmsen next inning if Paxton doesn’t get out of this quickly.

  24. Seattleguy527 on August 20th, 2014 11:42 am

    3-1 lead with the bottom of their order coming up and they score 2 runs. Wow.

  25. msfanmike on August 20th, 2014 11:42 am

    Is that a maple leaf tattoo on Paxton’s right arm?

  26. Will on August 20th, 2014 11:44 am

    Block the frickin ball…

  27. Woodcutta on August 20th, 2014 11:44 am

    Do the Phillies even have a hit this inning? Nevermind.

  28. msfanmike on August 20th, 2014 11:45 am

    That was an Ichiro bat throw/swing. And it was done to perfection, dammit.

  29. WTF_Ms on August 20th, 2014 11:46 am

    Well, there goes the tie….

  30. Woodcutta on August 20th, 2014 11:48 am

    Is it me or do the M’s look uninspired today?

  31. JasonJ on August 20th, 2014 11:50 am

    Oddly enough, the only hard hit ball that inning was the one that Paxton threw away for an error. Otherwise just a bunch of garbage and Sucre sucking.

  32. msfanmike on August 20th, 2014 11:50 am

    It’s not you. The pace of play seems off – for both teams. Maybe it’s just the intensity level. Not sure, but something is whack. Mistakes never help in that regard. It throws everyone off.

  33. Pilate on August 20th, 2014 11:50 am

    I thought Sucre’s claim to fame was his defense. Sure didn’t help matters that inning.

  34. Will on August 20th, 2014 11:58 am

    There has to be some third string catcher out there that can do a better job than Sucre, both offensively and defensively…

  35. Jake on August 20th, 2014 12:00 pm

    “Hi, could I speak to Kelly Shoppach please?”

  36. Will on August 20th, 2014 12:00 pm

    I’d take John Hicks or Humberto Quintero over Sucre in a heartbeat.

  37. msfanmike on August 20th, 2014 12:01 pm

    I wonder if John Hicks will get called up in September to be the third catcher. He is supposedly the most athletic catcher in the system – and it would be good to get a preview of his ability. I would have to believe he has a better bat than Sucre.

    I also heard that Hultzen has been throwing off a mound for a while and just recently began throwing his curveball. Good luck to him and it would be a great story if he can get back to mlb caliber.

  38. msfanmike on August 20th, 2014 12:02 pm

    Hey Will – you scooped me.

  39. msfanmike on August 20th, 2014 12:04 pm

    Come on Sucre – catch the damn ball.

    Dammit.

    Damn it.

    Damn.

  40. Seattleguy527 on August 20th, 2014 12:08 pm

    Not sure I would IBB the #8 hitter when you know they are going to pinch hit for the pitcher due to his count being around 100 for the game. Odd decision.

  41. msfanmike on August 20th, 2014 12:09 pm

    Nice throw LoMo. He’s got a pretty good arm.

  42. Seattleguy527 on August 20th, 2014 12:10 pm

    Give Philly credit, unlike the Boston’s and the Texas’ of the world they haven’t mailed it in just because they’re out of the race.

  43. Will on August 20th, 2014 12:14 pm

    Sucre is -131% worse than league average at hitting, and 7% above average defensively for catchers.

    I know he’s only a back up catcher, but this is still someone we start once a week in the midst of a playoff run. I can’t even say he belongs in an organization let alone an MLB team.

  44. Mariners2620 on August 20th, 2014 12:16 pm

    Wow. Sucre is god awful.

  45. Mariners2620 on August 20th, 2014 12:17 pm

    Come on Jackson! He has had so many opportunities to get the big hit.

  46. Mariners2620 on August 20th, 2014 12:18 pm

    I haven’t been impressed by Jackson at all.

  47. Westside guy on August 20th, 2014 12:19 pm

    The reason the team shouldn’t have Morrison in the outfield is the same reason Hart should have never been out there – even setting aside the fact that he’s been a horrible fielder overall, health issues had already forced Morrison and Hart to move to first and/or DH prior to their stint with the Mariners. If Morrison gets going, it’s his bat that’ll be worthwhile rather than his glove.

    And while he’s looked decent on a few plays today, the overwhelming weight of evidence shows that LoMo is a terrible outfielder.

  48. Woodcutta on August 20th, 2014 12:31 pm

    Anyone hear if the M’s are really in the running for Rusney Castillo? He is represented by Jay-Z and we all know they could use a good hitter that just so happens to play in the outfield.

  49. Will on August 20th, 2014 12:35 pm

    If I were a betting man, I’d guess that Jay-Z would lead Castillo to the Yankees who are probably willing to spend the most on him.

  50. Mariners2620 on August 20th, 2014 12:35 pm

    10 hits and 3 runs. Wonderful.

  51. Jake on August 20th, 2014 12:49 pm

    Gameday shows that strike 3 pitch to Morrison as being pretty far outside.

  52. Will on August 20th, 2014 12:50 pm

    Bullshit

  53. Woodcutta on August 20th, 2014 12:50 pm

    It was and Morrison even threw his bat thinking he was on his way to 1st.

  54. Will on August 20th, 2014 12:51 pm

    Should have been a fucking run there, dumbshit umpire

  55. MrZDevotee on August 20th, 2014 12:51 pm

    That strike 3 call was possibly the worst call I’ve EVER seen and we all know how bad umpiring is this year, so that’s saying something… It was a good 6 or 7 inches outside.

    Should be 2nd and 3rd with 1 out…

    Old ass umps need to retire.

  56. stevemotivateir on August 20th, 2014 12:52 pm

    Missing a call on a pitch by an inch or three is one thing. But that was just fucking ridiculous.

  57. MrZDevotee on August 20th, 2014 12:53 pm

    That’s some rude shit right there… Excuse my old man umpire French.

    Really awful. Never been that annoyed by a strike 3 call before. Seriously bad.

  58. stevemotivateir on August 20th, 2014 12:54 pm

    ^Really, that might have been the worst I’ve seen called on a Mariner in a few years.

  59. MrZDevotee on August 20th, 2014 12:55 pm

    I’d say we need robot umpires, but that was so far outside it wouldn’t even have registered as a pitch to a robot. It would still be waiting…

    (hyperbole warning)

  60. Will on August 20th, 2014 12:57 pm

    Anyone remember that call last year when the first base umpire called our runner out when the pitcher caught the ball standing, like, six feet away from the bag? That’s the only call that I can remember that made me more angry…

  61. Will on August 20th, 2014 12:58 pm
  62. MrZDevotee on August 20th, 2014 1:01 pm

    Will-
    I missed that one last year… Holy hell. The M’s should carry that around on video and show it to umps when we need a call to go our way.

  63. stevemotivateir on August 20th, 2014 1:02 pm

    That was worse, Will. Morrison’s was worst called strike 3 in a while, though.

  64. Jake on August 20th, 2014 1:02 pm

    I remember that play, that was crazy. On TV, it was crystal clear, but the ump never even saw that Grimm caught the ball instead of Moreland (?).

  65. Jake on August 20th, 2014 1:08 pm

    What the fuck, the first pitch Morales looks way outside too, but it was called strike 1.

  66. msfanmike on August 20th, 2014 1:08 pm

    A lack of Kulpability.

  67. Jake on August 20th, 2014 1:09 pm

    Christ, what a fucking cockpunch that was.

  68. msfanmike on August 20th, 2014 1:09 pm

    Strike 3 was good, though. Why the hell wasn’t Kendrys swinging?

  69. Will on August 20th, 2014 1:10 pm

    That was one of the toughest games I’ve watched since that Orioles series when we couldn’t hit to save our lives.

    If this were like any other year where we’re twenty games out of the race, I wouldn’t give a rip, but this year has a different feel and these games are so important.

  70. Grayfox3d on August 20th, 2014 5:07 pm

    If were to have any chance at making a run for that wild card spot were gonna need more help, how long do we have to wait till Saunders get his call?

    And Austin Jackson has not helped much, the only production I have seen is him producing outs in key RBI situations, and having multiple guys hitting right around that .200 mark is not what I would call playoff caliber.

    Some of these guys need to step it up if we want any shot at that last spot.

  71. Westside guy on August 20th, 2014 5:38 pm

    Ooh – Saunders isn’t in the Rainiers’ lineup today…

  72. Snuffy on August 20th, 2014 5:50 pm

    The return of Saunders will only serve to upset the veteran gritty applecart that exists in Lloyd’s mind… the place that is otherwise devoid of practical in game tactics.

  73. HighlightsAt11 on August 20th, 2014 5:57 pm

    So with Saunders single and walk last night Mac concludes Michael is fully rehabilitated and fully up to speed? Or was it the two walks the night before? Or the two walks the night before that?

    Whatever it takes to get on base…get that man a ride to Boston.

  74. HighlightsAt11 on August 20th, 2014 6:13 pm

    Denorfia or Chavez to Tacoma? Or a bullpen guy?

    3-3 on this road trip. Hoping for at least two in Beantown.

    Looks like another win for the Tigers. And A’s lose again but not like the M’s had any chance catching Oakland.

  75. californiamariner on August 20th, 2014 6:29 pm

    Should be Chavez to Tacoma, but I’ll believe that when I see it. Denorfia actually has some use.

  76. groundzero55 on August 20th, 2014 6:59 pm

    On a positive note – for us – the Angels just lost Garrett Richards probably for the year. Might be too little too late, but it certainly can’t hurt our chances.

  77. Westside guy on August 20th, 2014 7:31 pm

    I didn’t see Richards’ injury, and from the description of it I don’t WANT to see it. I wouldn’t wish that on anyone.

  78. Westside guy on August 20th, 2014 9:12 pm

    Curto tweeted that Saunders was simply off, but explained it as a “travel day”. I don’t get it – the Rainiers are playing.

    Maybe that’s his way of reporting he’s “traveling” to join the big club, but doesn’t want to get in trouble since the team hasn’t announced anything? Hope hope hope…

  79. stevemotivateir on August 20th, 2014 9:39 pm

    Chavez doesn’t have options.

  80. stevemotivateir on August 20th, 2014 9:50 pm

    The only real options to clear room for Saunders, other than a DFA, is optioning Maurer to Tacoma, or sending someone to the DL.

  81. Jake on August 21st, 2014 12:44 pm

    Price: 8 IP, 1 H, 1 R (UNearned), 0 BB, 9 K and the LOSS, as Tampa beats Detroit 1-0 thanks to an error in the 1st, and a triple.

    Only 1/2 game back.

  82. Grayfox3d on August 21st, 2014 1:22 pm

    Detroit is really starting to look like the Mariners, where all they have is pitching and the hope that someone has a good day on offense.

  83. HighlightsAt11 on August 21st, 2014 1:47 pm

    Oh right, the old DL trick.

    Chavez will get automagically injured and go on the DL.

    What happened to Hart?

  84. Westside guy on August 21st, 2014 7:05 pm

    Okay, my optimism turned out to be without merit.

    Saunders was sent home by the Rainiers team doctor because he’s ill. Given he was sent home, I’m guessing he is quite ill.

  85. Grayfox3d on August 21st, 2014 7:39 pm

    If I was Saunder’s I’d be sick too watching Chavez and LoMo butcher my position.

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