Game 139, Mariners at Rangers

marc w · September 4, 2014 at 4:50 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

Roenis Elias vs. Robbie Ross, 5:05pm
Wildcard Odds- Fangraphs.com: 45.3%. Baseballprospectus.com: 41.6%

Big day yesterday, as a great performance from Felix paired with a Detroit loss to give the M’s playoff odds a boost.

Today, the M’s head to Arlington to take on the reeling Rangers, who more resemble a AAA club than the team many thought could win the division. Robbie Ross won a spring competition to start the year in the rotation, and while injuries helped with that, he looked like he belonged. The lefty blanked the M’s over 7 2/3 IP back in April – his third straight solid outing to begin the year. Five days later, he got knocked around a bit and simply hasn’t been the same.

Ross is heavily fastball dependent, though he also throws a slider, curve and change. He gets good sink, and his delivery must be deceptive to righties, as he never had problems with RHBs, at least until this year. He’s always generated grounders, which has helped him avoid HRs, but even with a solid GB%, he’s had HR issues this year. It can’t be too shocking considering his home park and raw stuff that’s never been elite (he was seen as a finesse lefty by many when he was coming through the minors), but he, like the entire club, has been both bad and tremendously unlucky.

Most teams stack their lineups with righties, but Ross has reverse splits for his career in part because his slider’s been so bad against lefties. That said, his fastball’s been poor to righties this year after being effective for the two years he spent in the Texas bullpen.

1: Jackson, CF
2: Ackley, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Morales, 1B
5: Seager, 3B
6: Hart, DH
7: Denorfia, RF
8: Taylor, SS
9: Sucre, C
SP: Elias

Comments

57 Responses to “Game 139, Mariners at Rangers”

  1. Dennisss on September 4th, 2014 4:56 pm

    OK, it’s time for the M’s to stop screwing around against lousy teams. They need to stomp these guys.

  2. Paul B on September 4th, 2014 4:58 pm

    I’d argue about the lineup, but my heart’s not in it. Not like Lloyd has Babe Ruth on the bench.

  3. HighlightsAt11 on September 4th, 2014 5:13 pm

    Detroit up on Cleveland 4 to 0 top of the first. Game over.

  4. HighlightsAt11 on September 4th, 2014 5:15 pm

    I don’t know these Mariners.

  5. Paul B on September 4th, 2014 5:17 pm

    I will never know why Z is such a fanboy for Morales.

  6. Grayfox3d on September 4th, 2014 5:20 pm

    another game, another horrible strike zone! ugh!

  7. Dennisss on September 4th, 2014 5:22 pm

    Fangraphs says Morales has a 62 WRC+ for the year, 66 with the M’s. But “you know he’s going to hit.”

  8. Paul B on September 4th, 2014 5:34 pm

    Sucre!

  9. Dennisss on September 4th, 2014 5:44 pm

    And the stomp is on!

  10. Paul B on September 4th, 2014 5:45 pm

    Yeah, he gave up a single to Morales. Time to yank him for sure.

  11. Paul B on September 4th, 2014 5:46 pm

    But the Mariners have been helped by a tight strike zone in the top of the second, seems like.

  12. Paul B on September 4th, 2014 5:50 pm

    The strike zone got back to normal when the Rangers brought in a reliever.

  13. Paul B on September 4th, 2014 6:17 pm

    Kaboom! Brzip! Blammo!

  14. Don Money on September 4th, 2014 6:26 pm

    For a minute there, I thought the M’s were going to outscore the Seahawks!

  15. Grayfox3d on September 4th, 2014 6:26 pm

    It’s nice having a big lead, but Im having flashback’s of a few moons ago where we had a big lead on texas…

  16. msfanmike on September 4th, 2014 6:29 pm

    Get a DP here, Roenis – and all is well.

  17. Grayfox3d on September 4th, 2014 6:30 pm

    Elias has got to go away now please, shut him down.

  18. SeattleSlew on September 4th, 2014 6:49 pm

    When you see the M’s score this many runs in a series opener you almost wish they would save some runs for the other games.

  19. Grayfox3d on September 4th, 2014 6:51 pm

    cmon! the count should be 1-1! stupid umpires damnit.

  20. Sowulo on September 4th, 2014 6:52 pm

    …and that’s why you’re not the manager.

  21. Westside guy on September 4th, 2014 6:59 pm

    I’m on a bus following via Gameday, but came here first. From the tone of some comments here, there’s no way I expected the Mariners to have a 9-1 lead. :-D

  22. Sowulo on September 4th, 2014 6:59 pm

    yes! Cleveland just caught Detroit after trailing 4-0 early.

  23. Grayfox3d on September 4th, 2014 7:03 pm

    this strike zone though…. and none of us are managers, its our duty to complain about everything as fans.

  24. Sowulo on September 4th, 2014 7:07 pm

    I was referring to your demand that Elias be pulled. He has had two easy innings since and the bullpen hasn’t been burned.

    And no, I don’t believe fans need to complain about everything. Too many people here do and that is why I’m an infrequent contributor.

  25. Grayfox3d on September 4th, 2014 7:09 pm

    He proved me wrong by getting out of that inning yes, great work by Elias. But his control tonight, along with the crap strike zone is very frustrating.

  26. Grayfox3d on September 4th, 2014 7:16 pm

    Twinkies just tied up Angels in bottom of 6, this could be a good night to win in general.

  27. Longgeorge1 on September 4th, 2014 7:17 pm

    Too many people around here are tied to results which in baseball can be random. McLendon has shown he will pull a pitcher even if the results are good but is losing his stuff or mechanics; and will stick with a guy who is executing but just having lousy luck. I think Lloyd is a very astute manager. He is doing his best to save Elias as he is out after 70+ pitches but I think Elias was pitching too well to even contemplate pulling him in the 3rd.

  28. Grayfox3d on September 4th, 2014 7:19 pm

    I was thinking more along the lines of trying to save him from a collapse in the 3rd, Like I said, im glad he got out of it.

  29. Westside guy on September 4th, 2014 7:25 pm

    Hart doesn’t seem to be doing anything that might convince the team he should continue getting regular plate appearances.

  30. Paul B on September 4th, 2014 7:27 pm

    Yeah, except…. Morales, Smoak, Lomo, not exactly tough level to beat.

  31. djw on September 4th, 2014 7:27 pm

    Nice line drive HR for Denorfia there (Back to Seahawks…)

  32. Longgeorge1 on September 4th, 2014 7:30 pm

    GF3d, While you reminded me of the topic I AM NOT picking you out. I am more thinking of the “why Chavez?” crowd They have all the numbers but they are not sitting in the dugout or watching BP or have any knowledge of who is tired or just not right and needs a blow. Managing is more art than science to me. I don’t think a computer would do a good job. I know you need a better “eye” than me for sure so I try not to second guess guys who are successful

  33. djw on September 4th, 2014 7:34 pm

    “Numbers aren’t everything, you’re not IN THE DUGOUT MAN, therefore my irrational support of playing time for the bad player I like is justified” isn’t remotely persuasive.

  34. Longgeorge1 on September 4th, 2014 7:34 pm

    Watched Hart in Tacoma during rehab, very inconsistent, but geez when he caught one ! Saw him hit one over the left field terrace that is still going. I am sure he will get a shot in the spring. The dude is seriously BIG and seriously strong

  35. HighlightsAt11 on September 4th, 2014 7:39 pm

    LongGeorge, OF COURSE none of us are in the dugout or behind the plate or running the bases or at the plate. All posts here are just opinions, some less informed than others. Second guessing is part of being a fan(atic). Tell me that you never make an assumption or second guess?

  36. Longgeorge1 on September 4th, 2014 7:45 pm

    I am supporting McLendon’s decisions not mine. I am just saying it is easy to look at numbers, anyone can do that. If that was all it took they could just put an Apple in the dugout and save a lot of money. I think Mclendon is a really good manager, not all decisions in baseball work out even if they are “right”. I think the math analysis is incredibly useful but it needs to be interpreted by people who know the game. It takes a smart person to convert data to information.

  37. Grayfox3d on September 4th, 2014 7:47 pm

    Look, I just want to win, and at the same time I’m watching the Hawks game, so all my emotions are a little out of whack. I just didn’t want what happend in Oakland the other night to happen tonight. Dominate a whole game just to watch the lead slowly slip away. So I’m sorry I looked foolish, but alcohol and lots of sports make me crazy !

  38. djw on September 4th, 2014 7:51 pm

    Of course, that kind of reasoning could be applied to any bone-headed managerial decision. To state the obvious, no one applies this logic consistently or systematically. It only gets trotted out when one wants to agree with a dubious managerial decision, but doesn’t have any compelling evidence or arguments on one’s side.

  39. Longgeorge1 on September 4th, 2014 7:56 pm

    I often wonder why a decision is made, sure I do and probably express my opinion too often just to display my intelligence ( or ignorance more often than not) it is fun, but I really try to refrain from criticizing McLendon or other decision makers. It is a given in my mind that they are WAY more qualified than me and most (all) fans. Early this year nearly every line-up McLendon ran out was met with criticism, I just think that with this roster the job he has done has been excellent.

  40. Longgeorge1 on September 4th, 2014 7:58 pm

    GF3rd you are just fine in my book – GO HAWKS – BUT REALLY GO M’s

  41. Paul B on September 4th, 2014 8:00 pm

    Aw, I was hoping the Mariners would have a higher score than the Packers.

  42. HighlightsAt11 on September 4th, 2014 8:00 pm

    Hart has not proven himself to say healthy and productive the past two seasons. He might be invited by the M’s to spring training but certainly not getting the $5 million minimum he is receiving this season. Rather I see him returning to the Brewers.

  43. djw on September 4th, 2014 8:03 pm

    That’s ridiculous. No one applies that logic to, say, politicians, and for very good reason. The history of baseball is littered with managers who routinely make terrible decisions, based on clearly incorrect beliefs, that turn out disastrously (*cough* ERIC WEDGE *cough*). McClendon isn’t one of those, but he’s not perfect either. Don’t be dazzled by authority. People screw up all time, because of dumb, predictable biases.

    You know all this, of course, you just want to like Endy Chavez, so you look for a plausible narrative that supports that particular irrational desire. The evidence Chavez doesn’t deserve playing time on a playoff team is overwhelming; the blame here is as much Zduriencik’s as McClendon’s, but that doesn’t entirely absolve him. He’s on board with the bad idea, clearly. Irrational veteran worship is psychologically easy to understand (managers are, after all, old, and former old aging players) but that doesn’t make it rational, smart, or correct.

  44. Longgeorge1 on September 4th, 2014 8:20 pm

    Not defending Chavez, it was just a generic criticism that was heard often this year, many times the options were not that good, I don’t type very well so my thoughts are a little incomplete. I certainly was wondering myself about Elias tonight in the third, but I have seen McLendon pull guys in the middle of an at bat, so he is not shy, I think he saw what Elias had and in this case he was right. I listened to Endy’s interview after his “infield’ double the other day. What was impressive was not his getting to second but his approach at that at bat where he went after a possible “ball 4″. But did not want to put the game in the hands of the umpire, CB Buckner in case.

  45. MrZDevotee on September 4th, 2014 8:23 pm

    Well that makes sense then, because being a Mariners fan is neither rational, smart, nor correct.

    But here we are. Go M’s!

  46. djw on September 4th, 2014 8:24 pm

    Elias and Chavez aren’t comparable. The former is a young, talented pitcher who’s been roughly league average this year, and has gone through a rough patch lately. Chavez is an old, injured player who hasn’t sniffed replacement level in over three years. Trusting the first kind of player is reasonable and smart; trusting the second type is not.

  47. HighlightsAt11 on September 4th, 2014 8:34 pm

    As the Endy bashing continues…sigh.

    Tigers score 5 in the top of the 11th. Now the game is over.

  48. djw on September 4th, 2014 8:38 pm

    It’s a straightforward factual observation. I’m sure he’s trying hard and I’m happy for him when he succeeds. That’s the same attitude I’d have towards any success Romero has. It’s not “bashing” a player to observe the straightforward and obvious fact that he isn’t currently worthy of a significant role on a team with plausible playoff dreams.

  49. MrZDevotee on September 4th, 2014 8:41 pm

    Well that went south fast– Detroit up 9-4 in the 11th.

  50. MrZDevotee on September 4th, 2014 8:46 pm

    Endy’s OPS+ of 103 disagrees… That’s better than the starting 3rd basemen and starting 2nd basemen on the best team in baseball (Angels)…

  51. MrZDevotee on September 4th, 2014 8:52 pm

    I should also say, I’m NOT an Endy fan myself… But to not appreciate the less than awful season he’s having is as ridiculous as any other thoughts about him.

    .314 wOBA
    101 wRC+

  52. djw on September 4th, 2014 9:15 pm

    What’s amazing is that he’s managed, with some great good fortune, to be a league average hitter for the first time since….2006! But his defense and baserunning have deteriorated to such a degree that he’s still below replacement level. (Back when he was Endy Chavez, useful player edition, being a league average hitter made him an above average player.)

  53. eponymous coward on September 4th, 2014 10:52 pm

    Why Chavez?

    Because Michael Saunders is still injured and the other options are different kinds of crap, like Jones (who’s a younger version of Chavez who can’t field yet) or Romero.

    Guess what, the M’s haven’t got a lot of OFers, and what’s in the minors is mostly replacement level, which is what Chavez is.

    Now, if Saunders was actually sitting on the bench getting splinters in his butt instead of trying to put weight back on and getting hitting timing back in Peoria, THEN I might be upset with McClendon for playing one of his multitude of replacement-level talent on his bench. But he’s not.

    The fact that the M’s are shy OFers/1B/DH types has only been mentioned about 434567898 times, so I guess we can mention it 434567899 times, and blame Jack Z, but he did go out at the deadline and pull in AJax/Denorfia/Morales without giving up much (a reasonable stab at making the OF/1B/DH position not a drawback, which hasn’t paid off great, but it did give us some bodies), and Saunders seems to be the unluckiest bastard ever when it comes to injury, so my take is “meh”. At this point, the roster cake is mostly baked, we’ll know how it comes out at the end.

  54. Seattleguy527 on September 5th, 2014 8:09 am

    Serious question here — does anyone know all the different factors that go into weighing WAR? I’ve always found it odd how there can be such a big discrepancy between sites. Example — Chavez is shown as having a -.1 WAR on Fangraphs, but +.4 WAR on baseball-reference. Is there more subjectivity to WAR than I realized?

    Chavez has been at .4 at baseball-reference for quite a while, but went from something like .1 or .2 to -.1 at Fangraphs recently. I’ve always viewed WAR as being an objective stat, but if there’s subjectivity involved I’m wondering if maybe its importance should be downplayed a bit?

  55. Westside guy on September 5th, 2014 10:14 am

    That’s interesting. B-Ref and FanGraphs had announced a year or so ago they were standardizing how they calculate player WAR – they’d been using somewhat different formulas. I assumed that would have happened by now; but apparently not.

    I would point out that a difference of .5 WAR over almost a complete season isn’t much, though – it’s not as if B-Ref has Endy being worth 4 wins or something. Both sites have him hovering right around replacement level.

    But to answer your question… And, after reading that page, it appears what the two sites agreed to do was standardize how Replacement Level is calculated, not WAR itself.

  56. Seattleguy527 on September 5th, 2014 10:24 am

    Thanks, Westside. I didn’t realize there was an agreement/consensus among the two.

    I suppose you’re right — .5 isn’t really THAT big of a difference, and that’s typically the biggest difference I’ve seen.

    Another one I found interesting — Corey Hart -1 at Fangraphs, but -.4 at Baseball Reference.

  57. Utis on September 5th, 2014 11:36 am

    I trust Endy has been a better base runner this year than Kyle Seager.

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