Game 138, Mariners at Athletics
King Felix vs. Jon Lester, 12:35pm
Wildcard odds – Fangraphs.com: 38.9% Baseballprospectus.com: 37.0%
Happy Felix Day!
The M’s desperately needed a long outing from James Paxton last night following Chris Young’s less-than-an-inning disaster the previous day. They got one, and the M’s can now take the series with their ace on the hill.
I talked about Gray being potentially the A’s ace, and evidently that prospect frightened Billy Beane a bit, as he traded Yoenis Cespedes for today’s A’s starter, Jon Lester. The Piece County native has put up his best season in the majors, with a FIP under 3 for the first time in his career. His K% is now approaching his career high, but he’s also cut his walk rate substantially, all without a return of the home run problems that plagued his 2012.
Lester’s maintained his excellent peripherals and runs allowed stats since moving to the A’s, though his fastball velocity is down a bit from August of 2013. It clearly hasn’t hurt his whiffs, and he’s throwing more strikes, but it’s odd to see his velocity settle down a bit right when most pitchers peak, and where he was throwing hardest last year. Since moving to the A’s, he’s shelved his change-up, which was never a big part of his arsenal. He’s now a four- and two-seam fastball/cutter/curve ball pitcher. He’ll throw cutters in any count, to RHB/LHBs, and often features it more than his fastball.
Line-up:
1: Jackson, CF
2: Denorfia, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Morales, 1B
5: Seager, 3B
6: Hart, DH
7: Zunino, C
8: Romero, RF
9: Taylor, SS
SP: King Felix
Seven righties in the starting line-up today against the lefty Lester. I understand it a bit, though Lester’s been extremely tough on righties this year, and has career splits narrower than many left-handers. I’m not sure the platoon-split gain of starting Romero is worth the trade-offs, but of course that’s got a lot more to do with injuries than anything. Endy Chavez has been hot, but you do not want him within a quarter mile of today’s starting line-up. If the choice was Romero or a healthy Saunders, I think you go with Saunders, but that’s not helping McClendon fill out the line-up card.
The A’s line-up’s been quiet recently, with many pointing to the departure of Cespedes in the Lester deal. But the A’s are also down a lefty hitter who’s put up a 119 wRC+ this year in 344 PAs – C/DH John Jaso, who’s been sidelined with the aftereffects of a concussion. Jaso spoke with Eno Sarris about his recovery today at Fangraphs.
Podcast: Down the Stretch
Sorry for the delay folks; Labor Day camping took us far away from our recording outposts. This week we get into the recent scuffling, Jesus Montero, and who hasn’t been terrible for the Mariners lately and what’s to come.
Podcast with Jeff and Matthew: Direct link! || iTunes link! || RSS/XML link!
Thanks again to those that helped support the show and/or StatCorner in general last week, and in the past, and hopefully in the future. It’s truly appreciated.
Game 137, Mariners at Athletics
James Paxton vs. Sonny Gray, 7:05pm
Wildcard odds – Fangraphs.com: 35.2% Baseballprospectus.com: 31.4%
Quick one tonight, as I’m pressed for time. This is a great match-up of young arms that we could see for years as the M’s look to become a rival/equal of the A’s. As good as their pitching has been, and as good as Gray himself’s been, the A’s aren’t exactly outclassing the M’s. Gray’s excellent, and he’ll rack up more than 3 fWAR by season’s end, but that pales in comparison to the seasons Felix and Iwakuma have produced. Still, in Gray the A’s have a cost-controlled pitcher without much in the way of platoon splits who’s excellent in the cavernous O.Co Coliseum and on the road. He’s got a solid fastball at 94-95, a solid average change-up and a true weapon to LHB/RHBs alike in his hellacious curve ball. That was famously the pitch that no one in the big leagues had ever hit for a home run until he gave up two in one game to the Angels (Mike Trout’ll do that to you).
He’ll be a pain in this division for years, but pitch for pitch, James Paxton may be better. That’s saying a lot, and I hesitate to press “publish” on this, but seriously – Paxton has been a revelation, even if he’s been sidelined for far too long. I have no idea what happened to him last August, but everything’s clicked for him, and like all M’s fans, I just want this run to continue – and I want Paxton to be healthy enough to take the ball every five days for many, many years.
1: Jackson, CF
2: Ackley, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Seager, 3B
5: Morales, DH
6: Morrison, 1B
7: Chavez, RF
8: Miller, SS
9: Sucre, C
SP: Paxton
Yes, Paxton and Erasmo have been called up now that the MiLB season is officially over. The most successful clubs in the affiliated minors (above the complex league) were the Tacoma Rainiers, who finished four games over .500, and the Pulaski Mariners in the Appy League, who closed on a hot streak to finish six games over. Jackson and High Desert (AA and A+, respectively) finished below .500, in the middle of the pack in their divisions, while Everett recovered from a disastrous start to finish at 17-21. The only team to win a division crown were those complex league AZL Mariners, who finished 31-22.
Forrest Snow – Once and Future Prospect?
In June of 2010, the M’s drafted a local kid out of the University of Washington in the 36th round. Not many paid attention, and it’s not like a glance at the UW stats would’ve given you cause for optimism. In that 2010 season at Montlake, Forrest Snow posted an ERA of 6.30, which sounded terrible, but adding in 13 unearned runs pushed his RA/9 8.11. And yet, he was a local product with a great pitcher’s frame (he’s 6’6″) who sat around 90-91mph. Moreover, he hadn’t been pitching all that long – only a few years in high school after he grew too tall to continue catching. After hitting pro ball and professional strength and conditioning programs, he blossomed, garnering rave reviews in the 2011 Arizona Fall League. After a trying 2012, he bounced back in 2013 but a 50-game suspension for “a drug of abuse” resulted in lost time in 2014. Despite a somewhat rough finish to this season, Snow pitched well enough in June/July to put himself back on the (admittedly crowded) list of hopefuls for a bullpen job in 2015. He’s also a 40-man protection candidate this year. I spoke with him at Cheney Stadium last week as he prepared to finish the season and then head to Mexico for winter ball.
MW: You weren’t terribly successful at UW, and then as soon as you hit pro ball, the results were there. What happened at UW? Or, what happened after you signed?
Snow: Pitching at UW was a great experience. I’d been drafted out of HS by the Mariners, and decided I wasn’t ready. I’d only been pitching off a mound for two years. I needed to learn how to attack hitters, work counts, etc. At UW, I learned how to work hard and how to work as part of a staff. However, I didn’t really have a role. At times I was a reliever, at times a starter. That carried over to pro ball. Much my success can be attributed to that experience of being a utility pitcher. The Mariners thought I had the repertoire to continue in that role – starting or relieving.
Do you prefer one role or another?
No, I just love having the ball and throwing it at a catcher. I grew up loving the game and loving the Mariners, and any role they see for me, I’ll be more than happy to work 100% at it.
In college, was your velocity the same – low-90s fastball – or did you get a jump after signing with the M’s?
My first few years at UW, I was 89-92, and then junior year I was more 91-92 because I gained some weight. After signing and starting the M’s strength program, I was working harder, and by 2012 I was weighing in at 225 and ended up touching the mid 90s. After that, I’ve learned that “foot on the gas” approach all the time just wasn’t right for me – I’ve learned to pump the breaks and take a bit off and use more movement.
Your fastball’s always had a lot of horizontal movement, despite being a four-seamer. Was that always the case? Was there a mechanical change to produce that?
My arm angle’s been pretty consistent since I started; it’s gradually gotten more over-the-top since high-school, but I’ve focused on putting a lot of pressure on my pointer finger, which helps with pronation, and it produces a good riding fastball. I’ve wanted to add a sinker or a two-seamer, something with a lot of vertical depth, to no avail…yet. It’s still on the back burner, I’ll work on it this off-season and see if I can develop another weapon.
In 2011, you pitched for four different teams, culminating with the Peoria Javelinas of the AFL. When you got the AFL call, what did you think? Were you surprised by that assignment? Did you know about the AFL?
I was surprised; I got the call in Tacoma – Daren Brown told me I’d be heading down to the AFL. I thought it was an instructional league. Once I get down there, it’s this collection of top prospects and guys who are climbing the ranks quickly. I didn’t think much of it when I first heard about the assignment.
You didn’t put more pressure on yourself –
No, I was doing the same thing – a few starts, a bunch of relief appearances. More of that utility role.
So back then, October of 2011, you had some success, and you were getting written up a lot. Geoff Baker did a story, Kevin Goldstein (now with the Astros) said at Baseball Prospectus that you were one of the better prospects no one had heard of. Did you hear about that stuff? Were you aware of all of the extra attention?
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Game 136, Mariners at Athletics
Chris Young vs. Jason Hammel, 1:05pm
Wildcard Odds – Fangraphs.com: 45.6% Baseballprospectus.com: 40.2%
What a comeback yesterday – it looked like the M’s were on their way to a crippling series sweep when Dustin Ackley’s three-run shot off Tanner Roark turned the game around. Yesterday’s odds were in the mid-high 30% range, so you can see what a difference the M’s comeback (and the Tigers loss) made to their wild card odds. It’s still August, so there aren’t technically must-win games, but that one felt pretty big. If you mapped win probability to playoff odds, Dustin’s HR was as big a single play as we’ve seen in a while – it felt like it was up there with the 9th inning win over Uehara in Boston. Now they need to keep it up against the reeling A’s.
The A’s enter today’s game five games behind the Angels in the West – a divisional lead that looked un-losable has been lost, and the A’s have all but played their way out of the all-important division win/first-round bye. The A’s and Tigers were the most active teams on the trade market before the deadline, with Oakland grabbing Jason Samardzija and today’s starter Jason Hammel and then getting Jon Lester a month later. The Tigers picked up David Price in the Nick Franklin/Austin Jackson deal, with everyone hailing the moves as two playoff-bound teams tweaking their post-season rotations. Since the trades, though, both teams have scuffled. Samardzija’s been solid, but the A’s offense has gone AWOL. Hammel was awful in his first handful of starts for Oakland, but has bounced back recently. Price has been alternately brilliant and mediocre, with his famous nine-straight hit, 2IP/8R disaster against the Yankees his last time out. This isn’t to judge the deals in hindsight or to argue that teams shouldn’t trade for pitchers, but it’s a lesson that pitchers – even great ones – have rough patches, and when you acquire one, you just have to hope that you’ll miss that rough patch.
Jason Hammel seems to be coming out of his rough patch. He’s had three solid starts in his last four tries, with a hard-luck no-decision in Houston’s comeback win on the 26th. Hammel throws a sinker and a four-seamer around 92, with a slider, curve and change up as his secondaries. To righties, he’s primarily a fastball/slider guy, and while he’ll throw his slider to lefties as well, he mixes in the change and curve to them as well. In recent years, he’s not shown too much in the way of platoon splits; a bad 2013 is balanced with even splits this year and even reverse splits in his breakout 2012 year. Even after picking up the sinker in 2012, he’s still been something of a fly-ball pitcher, and that’s made him vulnerable to homers. It’s an interesting career arc – a fly baller in Coors Field who didn’t actually give up a ton of HRs but wasn’t consistent enough (and didn’t have enough swing-and-miss in his arsenal) to be effective, he remade himself as a ground-ball pitcher in Baltimore. He posted the best GB% in his career in 2012 while also seeing a strikeout rate spike…despite moving to the AL. Unfortunately, injuries limited his time, and they took a bite out of his 2013 as well. His velocity was down a bit in 2013, but not enough to explain the barrage of HRs he gave up, the GB% dropping by 13 percentage points, or his K rate sliding back. He’s been better in 2014, but while all of his rate stats have bounced back somewhat, they’re not close to his 2012 rates. Despite his success with the sinker and slider in 2012, he’s throwing more four-seamers again, perhaps just to keep hitters off balance, and perhaps because it’s easier on his arm.
Chris Young got some extra rest heading into this start, which is part of Lloyd McClendon’s canny usage of his rotation down the stretch. Felix and Iwakuma have received an extra day’s rest here and there, and now the veteran Young – coming off another shoulder surgery – will too. Felix and others have struggled a bit, but I don’t think it’s due to the shake-up of the every-five-days grind of the rotation. In any event, this is a huge game for the skyscraping righty. The M’s need a win with the Tigers and Royals facing lesser teams (although at least the Tigers are facing Corey Kluber today).
1: Jackson, CF
2: Ackley, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Morales, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Chavez, RF
8: Zunino, C
9: Miller, SS
SP: Young
The rosters have expanded, so the M’s called up seven players from Tacoma. You see Smoak’s name in the line-up, and Corey Hart, Stefen Romero, Taijuan Walker and Lucas Luetge have been recalled. Two newcomers are Humberto Quintero, a back-up catcher who hit a big HR in yesterday’s game in Fresno, and Carson Smith, the relief prospect with a riding sinking fastball and a big slider. The M’s made room on the forty-man for these two first by moving Willie Bloomquist to the 60-day DL and then by placing Jesus Montero on the suspended list. This is a suspension without pay for Montero, and it opened up a spot on the roster. Erasmo Ramirez and James Paxton should be called up after the Rainiers’ season ends today.
Eno Sarris has a great article and interview with Danny Farquhar at the Fox Sports blog Just a Bit Outside. Check it out.