Game 53, Yankees at Mariners
Taijuan Walker vs. Masahiro Tanaka, 12:40pm
Early game today, as it’s getaway day for the Yankees. In the M’s last getaway day, Felix shut down the Rays at Tropicana. This is a very different situation, but c’mon Taijuan…you got this.
Mike Montgomery was effective yesterday, but the bullpen bullpenned, and the M’s playoff odds took another hit. In the past week, the M’s playoff odds have dropped by about 17% according to Fangraphs, and by about 12% according to BP. Essentially all of the drop has been in their odds of winning the AL West. Their wildcard odds haven’t really changed, but there’s less chance of the M’s catching both the Angels and Astros now. The last time I said the M’s needed to make a move was two weeks ago, and they did, finishing their road trip strong and heading home on a roll. Of course, even then, at something of a low ebb, their playoff odds were better, as less of the season had been played, and thus the M’s preseason expectations were driving more of the final win total. It’s time to make a move that lasts longer than a week, guys.
Masahiro Tanaka was supposed to be Hisashi Iwakuma plus – great control, unhittable splitter, plus a few ticks on the fastball. What he’s been is…ok, what he’s been is injured, but over his first 150IP in the US, he’s been more or less equivalent to Iwakuma. Now, the Yankees paid a boatload of money for Tanaka, and I think many expected a true ace, but being more-or-less-equivalent-to-Iwakuma is a damn good outcome for a pitcher. If there’s a problem, besides the whole injury thing, it’s that his fastball isn’t any better than Iwakuma’s. Tanaka’s four-seam is coming in around 91 this year, and he throws a sinker at about the same speed. But for whatever reason, it’s not as effective as Iwakuma’s 90mph heater. Iwakuma gets far more whiffs on his, and it’s taken deep less often. In his brief MLB career, batters are hitting .316 on Tanaka’s four-seam fastball, and are SLUGGING .614. On the sinker, it’s .322/.521, respectively. That’s…bad. Of course, Tanaka’s split is a legitimate weapon, and he throws it often enough that he can still be effective despite a pedestrian fastball. Tanaka’s breaking balls are also a bit more effective (thus far) than Iwakuma’s; Tanaka has an effective slider, while Iwakuma’s is mediocre.
Like Iwakuma, Tanaka has run reverse platoon splits thus far. It’s righties who do the most damage on his fastball, and they’re less likely to see a split. As a result, they’ve hit more HRs off of Tanaka despite facing him less often than lefties. Reverse platoon splits are often a weird anomaly, a byproduct of a small sample, but every once in a while, they’re meaningful. In Tanaka, all we have is a small sample, but I’m willing to bet that his splits are, for lack of a better word, “real.” Iwakuma has run essentially equal (his FIP against righties is a tiny bit worse than it is against lefties) splits over his career, after all. No, righties won’t continue to slug .700 on Tanaka’s fastball, but as long as he throws his best pitch to lefties more than righties, righties will have a slight comparative advantage.
Taijuan Walker’s fastball has essentially the same shape – the same movement – as Tanaka’s. Both more horizontally about 5″, and have 10″ of vertical rise due to backspin. Both have hard cutters with similar movement as well – a difference in horizontal movement of about 6″ or so from the FB, and 3-4″ less rise. As you might imagine, though, their splitters are very distinct. What Tanaka does that Walker hasn’t yet figured out how to do is generate serious drop with the pitch. Tanaka’s drops 8″ more than his fastball, while Walker’s is a bit less than 6″. It doesn’t sound like a lot, and the fact that Walker’s is fastball may have something to do with it, but it makes a difference. With more drop, batters see the pitch as a strike longer, and that leads to more swings out of the zone. Against Tanaka’s split, batters swing at *most* splitters in the zones below the bottom of the strike zone. Against Taijuan’s, they’re more likely to hold off. And that’s a big reason why Taijuan’s o-swing% is nothing special, while Tanaka’s is above average. The splitter is such an effective pitch because it can be thrown for balls and STILL generate swings. In 2014, Tanaka had the 3rd best swing rate on splitters, one spot ahead of Iwakuma, with a 63.3% mark, *despite* the fact he throws it out of the zone far more often than he leaves one IN the zone. When they’re not whiffs, swings at balls tend to generate bad contact, and thus it’s not a surprise that Tanaka (and Iwakuma) have run lower than average BABIPs – this is something Taijuan Walker really needs to learn how to do.
1: Morrison, 1B
2: Jackson, CF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Smith, RF
7: Miller, SS
8: Ackley, LF
9: Zunino, C
SP: Walker
Six lefties. Damn.
Happy 40th birthday to the Seattle Times M’s beat writer and friend of the site Ryan Divish. Everyone have some Crown Royal in honor of a hell of a writer/twitterer.
Danny Farquhar’s first start was so-so – he went 3 2/3, giving up 2 runs on a HR to Derek Dietrich. He blanked New Orleans for three innings before the HR, so that’s somewhat encouraging. The Rainiers won the game 11-2, thanks to some great relief work by Justin Germano and a 4-5-with-a-HR day from Jesus Montero. James Jones, Pat Kivlehan and Shawn O’Malley also homered, and the Rainiers scored 8 runs off Justin Nicolino, who’d been excellent thus far. Today, Sam Gaviglio gets the start against the Zephyrs.
Jackson was swept in their doubleheader against the Mississippi Braves yesterday, losing 3-0 and 5-2. Victor Mateo blanked them for 6 innings in the first game despite not striking anyone out, and the Braves got 3 runs in the first (on a 3R HR) off Scott DeCecco, and then neither team scored after that. Gabby Guerrero had one of the Generals three hits, and also threw a runner out at 2nd. Moises Hernandez took the loss in the nightcap, giving up 4 runs in 3 1/3IP. DJ Peterson had two singles and C Marcus Littlewood had 3, but the Generals were held without an extra-base hit in both games. Today, Jake Zokan faces off against Tyrell Jenkins, an up and coming prospect who moved to the Braves as part of the Jason Heyward/Shelby Miller swap. Jenkins had shoulder surgery in 2013, but returned in time for the Arizona Fall League last year, where he threw 93-94.
Bakersfield’s bats came alive yesterday in a 13-8 win over Rancho Cucamonga. Nelson Ward doubled and homered, and the Blaze pounded out 15 hits. Eddie Campbell struggled again, but had plenty of run support. The Blaze knocked opposing starter Zack Bird out in the first inning; maybe it helped that they’d faced him twice before. The Blaze are off today.
Clinton hosts Dayton tonight, and Tyler Herb will start for the LumberKings.
Game 52, Yankees at Mariners
Mike Montgomery vs. CC Sabathia, 7:10pm
Welcome to the big leagues, Mike Montgomery. It’s been a long, long road for the lefty. He was drafted with the 36th overall pick in 2008, and cracked the Royals top 10 prospect list back in 2009, placing him around guys like Dan Cortes, Kila Ka’aihue and Danny Duffy. The following year, Montgomery topped pretty much everyone’s KC list, and was in the top 5 for 2011, the famously hyped best system in the history of systems. He had good size, above average velocity, a solid change, and the makings of a solid curve. The only question seemed to be when he’d debut – late 2011? Certainly 2012. Instead, though, Montgomery had a terrible introduction to the high minors in 2011, and the promotions just didn’t come. Instead of a temporary setback, Montgomery struggled again in 2012. His walk rate – always on the high side -was a red flag, and was no longer balanced by strikeouts. In a few years, Montgomery had gone from prize of the system to a potential bust.
Before the 2013 system, the Royals and Rays pulled off probably the most widely debated and discussed trade of the past decade. Wil Myers, the new star of the Royals system, headed to Tampa in exchange for SP James Shields and RP Wade Miley. The Rays also grabbed some prospects to help balance things out – SP Jake Odorizzi, who seemed like a 5th starter, OF lottery ticket Patrick Leonard, and Montgomery, a classic buy-low candidate. The Rays were able to help Odorizzi turn into something much better than anyone thought, but Montgomery proved a tougher nut to crack. He had a better ERA in the Rays system (the IL isn’t the same as the PCL, because nothing is), but seemed just as stalled out – averagey K rates, too-high walk rate, no ability to strand runners. Montgomery had blown two chances to develop, and nice fastball aside, time was running out. The Rays dumped him for Erasmo Ramirez at the end of spring training, and everyone (including me) though the M’s might move him to the bullpen and see if his velo would play up in short stints. Instead, he’s quietly having his best high-minors season in the rotation.
This isn’t a dramatic transformation the way it was with Danny Farquhar. Instead, pretty much every metric is just a bit better than it’s been. For example, Montgomery’s previous career high for the percentage of his pitches that have gone for strikes was 60.7%, set in Omaha and tied in Durham. This year, it’s 62.5%. His best whiff rate had been 9.7%. It’s at 12% now, matched be his lowest contact%. His HR rate’s as low as it was when he was the darling of the Royals’ system, but this year’s mark has come in the PCL. Now, all of this is nice, and shows that he’s been pitching better than he did last year, but there’s some luck here, too. His HR/FB rate seems absurdly low, and the sample size makes it hard to say that he’s turned a corner. But he’s pitched well enough to earn a shot, and I’m excited to see what he does with it.
CC Sabathia was remarkably durable and consistent for over a decade, but the red flags are themselves worn and tattered now. After losing both weight and velocity last season, Sabathia struggled and then lost most of the year to injury. I think expectations were low this season, but Sabathia’s managed to prove the pessimists right in the early going. His FIP actually isn’t too bad, as Sabathia maintains very low walk rates. But with his FB at 90mph, he’s giving up lots of hard-hit balls, and that’s pushed his BABIP to .350, and his HR rate has been high since 2013. Sabathia was famous for dominating righties and lefties alike, thanks to a solid change-up and a slider that was effective against anyone with a bat in their hands. But since 2013, his ability to deal with righties has declined, and he’s now running extreme platoon splits. Since the start of last season, Sabathia’s pitched 106+ IP and given up 20 HRs to righties, who are hitting .365 off his four-seamer and .325 off his sinker. He knows how to pitch, and can get whiffs with his change-up against over-aggressive hitters, so that’s something Weeks/Ruggiano should be aware of. But this is a match-up that needs a righty-stocked line-up.
1: Jackson, CF
2: Bloomquist, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, RF
5: Seager, 3B
6: Weeks, DH
7: Morrison, 1B
8: Ruggiano, LF
9: Zunino, C
SP: Montgomery
Tacoma welcomes New Orleans to Cheney tonight at 6:05. Sounds like Danny Farquhar will make the start tonight and then stay in the rotation for a while. Interesting move.
Jackson’s got Scott DeCecco on the mound against Mississippi in the first game of a double-header. Moises Hernandez gets the ball in game 2.
Bakersfield faces Rancho Cucamonga tonight. No word on the Blaze starter, but Zack Bird starts for the Quakes – this’ll be the 3rd time this year Bakersfield have faced him.
M’s Flurry of Moves and the End of An Experiment
As we found out all too early last night, Mayckol Guaipe was called up to provide some help to a beleaguered bullpen.* The M’s pen had been worked pretty hard in the Cleveland series, particularly the Sunday game, and with Danny Farquhar in Tacoma (and changing roles), you can understand the need to add a live body. The problem was the flip side of that move – optioning SS Chris Taylor back to Tacoma.
We’re less than a month from the announcement that the Mariners were officially moving Brad Miller from his perch as the starting SS and shifting him around the diamond. Taylor would be the SS, and Miller could help fill holes in the OF, spell Seager and/or Cano, and get some work in CF. As I mentioned at the time, it was an odd move, borne of frustration with problems in the OF, and one that would, in the short term, probably cost the M’s a few runs. So it’s a good thing the M’s seem to be undoing this rash decision, right? No, it’s somewhat troubling.
Taylor struggled at the plate, and that played a role in this, as did the bullpen shortage. But to do something as big as moving your starting SS to the OF is an expression of priority. It says, given the depth we have at SS, and given the problems we have in LF/CF, fixing the OF – and seeing what MIller’s capable of out there – is MORE important than offensive production at SS. If offense at SS was a critical issue, you’d never have made the swap in the first place, as no projection system and no observer would see Taylor as a better all-around *hitter* than Miller. Given the learning curve, the disruption to Miller and his own development, one would expect that the list of things that would cause the team to abort the Zobristification would be pretty short. Taylor gets hurt/traded, Ackley turns into an offensive force and stays productive for X months, the M’s acquire a great CF…something like that. As reasons to pull the plug go, “Chris Taylor had 30 bad ABs” is not terribly substantial. Neither is, “But the bullpen is so tired!” As it is, they stopped their experiment so soon that it makes it harder to extract a lot of meaningful information from it. If the M’s want to really understand if they have a CF for next year (assuming Austin Jackson walks), well, what do they know? Miller played 39 innings in the OF – 6 of them in CF. 6 innings.
The other alternative is that Austin Jackson’s hot start (he has 8 hits in his 7 games since coming off the DL) reduced the need to see what Miller was capable of. Again, this seems wholly unsatisfactory to me. The M’s dealt with Miller’s frustration, and then had him learn a new position (actually multiple positions) on the fly, dedicating coaching resources to the process as well. If a 7 game sample from Jackson’s enough to shake your faith in the entire enterprise of changing Miller’s position, then you had no business doing it. It’s the same thing as saying that Taylor’s bad month necessitated a move. Some decisions are worth revisiting after a few weeks. This does not seem like one of them.
Tacoma SS Ketel Marte, one of the M’s top prospects, just broke his thumb over the weekend, and will miss the next 6 months weeks [sorry about that – six WEEKS, not six months. It’s not THAT bad]. I don’t even want to contemplate the idea that the M’s were influenced by the need to bolster Tacoma’s IF, so I don’t think that’s it. The M’s SS depth is a little lower than it was, so you could argue that the lack of depth behind Taylor could’ve been a thumb on the scale – a minor point that added a bit of impetus to returning Miller to the position full-time. I think it’s valid as a very consideration, but it’s several orders of magnitude less important than the reasons they cited when they made the switch in early May. Besides, the M’s have TWO decent SS in AA in Jack Reinheimer and Tyler Smith. Neither are prospects in Marte’s (or Taylor’s) class, but they’re not pure org depth either.
I wasn’t a fan of moving Miller off SS, but I can certainly acknowledge that there was an upside. It did make use of the M’s SS depth, and having a lefty CF in the mix in 2016 is pretty intriguing. Whatever I thought of it, it needed to be implemented with some conviction. Miller wasn’t thrilled with the idea, and while he may like returning to SS, he probably also feels like he’s been dicked around by the team. The M’s have some strengths, and they have some problems. They need to focus on those problems and work to solve them, not let short-term issues drive their decision-making. That’s hard for a team in a losing streak, and it’s hard for a team that’s probably keeping a close eye on their own playoff odds. But short-term thinking of this kind doesn’t necessarily improve those odds; you can’t fix your biggest problems if you can’t decide what they are.
* Guaipe had a great MLB debut, but he’s been optioned back to Tacoma to make room for tonight’s starter, Mike Montgomery.
Game 51, Yankees at Mariners, Pineda at El Rey
King Felix vs. Michael Pineda, 7:10pm
Happy Felix Day
The broadcasts have emphasized this match-up throughout the Indians series, and with good reason. This is as interesting a pitching match-up as we’ve seen in a while, and we JUST saw Felix vs. Chris Archer. Pineda was Felix’s heir apparent, and I acknowledge the oddity of discussing the succession plann of a kid in his mid 20s, and seemed poised for a long run of success after making the All-Star team in his first big league season in 2011. Then came The Trade, and the strange back-and-forth feelings about who “won” it, or who lost it less, or whatever. For the first year, Yankee fans must’ve been wondering what the M’s knew and when, as both Pineda and 2nd piece Jose Campos went down with serious arm injuries. Fast forward a year or two – a time period marred by suspensions, whatever the hell Hector Noesi was, and flying frozen snacks, and suddenly M’s fans were wondering what the Yankees knew back in early 2012, and lamenting that Pineda was back, suddenly, in the New York rotation.
This will be Pineda’s first time facing the M’s, and it’s sad but inevitable that The Trade will figure so prominently. We’re three-plus years from the date it went down, and Pineda’s spent most of that period rehabbing from shoulder surgery and then a strained muscle in his back (near the shoulder). As a result, it probably shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Pineda of 2015 is substantially different from the one we knew in 2011. With the Yankees (or ‘post-rehab’ if you prefer), Pineda has refined his always-good control into one of the league’s elite tools. Pineda’s walk rate this year is under 2% – he’s walked 5 in 64 1/3 IP thus far. Last season, he walked 2.4% in 76+ IP – this is a skill, and Pineda has honed that skill remarkably well. He always had it, but consider that with the M’s, his BB% was just under 8%. The strikeouts have returned this year, as his K% is 25%, which is fractionally better than it was in 2011.
His arsenal has changed in one important way, though. With the M’s, he had a very good four-seam fastball – it featured plus velo at 95-96, and average movement. Coupled with his control, it was a very effective pitch. He threw it for strikes, it got more whiffs than the average fastball, and batters hit .229 off of it, thanks in part to a low BABIP. Despite not having a ton of rise, it was a clear fly ball pitch, and given Pineda’s reliance on it, Pineda was thus a fly ball pitcher. Today, Pineda’s scrapped the four-seamer entirely, and instead features a cutter. With basically no horizontal movement and clear “sink,” it’s made Pineda a ground ball pitcher all of the sudden, and may help him avoid HRs in the compact new Yankee Stadium. It’s no longer the big velocity fastball he had with Seattle – it comes in at 92, and while it still gets some swinging strikes, it’s more of a set-up pitch. On its own, the pitch can be a little underwhelming. Batters are hitting about .300 on it since he developed the pitch, including .356 this year – that’s the highest BA-allowed on any starter’s cutter. And yet: Pineda has a FIP of 2.50 and a K:BB ratio of 13.4:1, easily the best in the league. He’s essentially become the ace M’s fans thought he would, but he simply doesn’t *pitch* the way we thought he would.
The small changes he’s made to his slider accentuate the point. The slider was his outpitch in the M’s system and in 2011, and it still is – it’s his best 2-strike pitch, and he’s been able to throw it to lefties as well as righties since he came up. In 2011, we focused on the horizontal movement of his slider because it was so different from his four-seamer’s. That distinction between FB and SL is less true now that his “fastball” is a cutter with essentially no horizontal movement at all. To compensate, his new slider has even more movement in both planes. It’s the same speed it was in 2011, so the velo gap has shrunk, but it now sinks more and cuts away from righties slightly more. Because he’s always around the zone, it’s harder for batters to lay off the pitch, and as a result, his slider’s swung at very often – the 3rd most in baseball thus far in 2015. Perhaps because of the increased “drop” on it, it’s always being hit on the ground more than it was in 2011, too. So, it’s tougher to lay off of, more likely to be hit on the ground, but still has the same whiff rate as before. Not bad.
Unfortunately for Pineda and the Yankees, all of that ground ball contact hasn’t been converted into outs. With Seattle, lots of fly balls and a solid defense helped Pineda run a low BABIP. This year, Pineda’s BABIP is an unsightly .335. Batters are hitting .280 on grounders against him, despite glove-first SS Didi Gregorius leading the Yankees in SS innings. Chase Headley’s 3B defense has been shaky, but it’s still somewhat surprising to me that Pineda’s struggled so much on balls in play. Less surprising, though, has been Pineda’s issues out of the stretch. Even in 2011, this was a problem for Pineda. Batters were helpless with no one on (wOBA-against of .253), but if one of them found his way aboard, Pineda became almost average (wOBA-against of .321) – his K rate fell, and his HR rate rose. This led to a poor strand rate, and an ERA a bit worse than his FIP. So far in 2015, the gap’s reduced, but his strand rate’s still a bit below average, which has pushed his ERA well above his fourth-in-MLB FIP. So: get aboard, M’s, and it might not be worth waiting for the perfect pitch. He’s thrown cutters on nearly 70% of his first-pitches – if it’s there, take a whack at it.
1: Morrison, 1B whaaaat?
2: Cano, 2B
3: Cruz, RF
4: Seager, 3B
5: Smith, DH
6: Jackson, CF
7: Miller, SS
8: Zunino, C
9: Ackley, LF
SP: KING FELIX
Well, that’s a different order. Of M’s lefties, LoMo actually has the top walk rate, tied with Brad Miller at 10.2%. It’s not as crazy as it looks at first glance, I suppose, though Smith and Miller both seem like good, familiar choices.
The Rainiers beat Round Rock 6-3 yesterday, as Jimmy Gilheeney got the win in a spot-start for Mike Montgomery, fueling more speculation that the lefty is headed to Seattle to start tomorrow. Franklin Gutierrez and Leon Landry homered for the R’s. That’s Landry’s 3rd HR in 2 days, after 2 on Saturday. Early game today – a before-noon start time to allow thousands of school kids to attend. The kids were treated to a terrible beat-down inflicted by Round Rock, as the Express compiled a 10-0 lead in the 4th, scoring all 10 off Tacoma starter Stephen Landazuri. Rangers prospect Anthony Ranaudo was solid, and pitched 6IP giving up 2R on a HR by Patrick Kivlehan. Leury Bonilla hit a double, but the game was long decided. It finished 14-3, with Bonilla pressed into duty on the mound. The utility IF/OF gave up 3 runs in his inning, including a HR by Jake Smolinski.
Jackson faces the Mississippi Braves today, as Edwin Diaz tries to get accustomed to AA living. He’ll face off with right-hander Greg Ross, one of those unheralded org guys who puts up remarkably good numbers. Ross put up solid numbers (though without a lot of K’s) across multiple levels in 2013 and 2014. He hasn’t been as effective this year, but he’s still been pretty valuable for an 18th round pick.
Bakersfield lost to Rancho Cucamonga 3-1 yesterday, as Jharel Cotton, just called up from the MWL, threw 5 solid innings (1R allowed, 7 Ks) for the Quakes. He was followed by Ivy League-educated reliever Michael Johnson, who struck out 7 in 3 scoreless innings. Bakersfield’s TEAM OPS this year is .616. Since 2010, only one team has had an OPS under .700 – Modesto put up a .690 mark last year. Bakersfield will try to get things going with a double header against the Quakes today.
Cedar Rapids edged Clinton 6-5 in 11 innings yesterday. The Kernels got 2 to tie the game in the 8th, then walked it off with a 2-out single in the 11th. Clinton blew a 5-0 lead in the game. Today, Clinton was held hitless for 6 2/3 IP by Twins prospect Stephen Gonsalves, who came into the year as a 10-20th prospect, but is clearly in the top 10 now after dominating the Midwest League. The final was 5-0, as Gonsalves struck out 11 in 7IP, giving up 2 hits.
Speaking of the minors, Ben Lindbergh (of Grantland) and Sam Miller (of Baseball Prospectus) got the chance of a lifetime to essentially run the baseball operations department for a pro team this year when they were hired by the Sonoma Stompers of the Pacific Association, an independent league in California. Ben/Sam get to make up the roster, tinker with strategy and try to win professional games using sabermetrics/data/gut-feel/whatever they choose, and then they’ll collaborate on a book about their year. You may have heard about this on NPR this morning, when David Greene interviewed Lindbergh. For fans of the Effectively Wild podcast, you’ve been anticipating this for months – today is opening day, and the Stompers face Pittsburg at 6:00pm. Does sabermetrics work in the Indie Leagues? Do you need to know more about the indies to know what talents are undervalued? They’re the indie leagues, with teams and, as we saw this week, LEAGUES operating on a shoestring. How can any team OVERvalue a skill in these conditions? What kind of market inefficiencies operate when teams are forced to watch every penny? I’m curious to find out. If you need an M’s tie-in to the Stompers, the club features pitcher Mike Jackson, jr., the son of former Mariner Mike Jackson.