Game 155, Mariners at Angels

marc w · September 26, 2015 at 4:18 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

King Felix vs. Andrew Heaney, 6:05pm

Happy Felix day.

After an extra day of rest, the King faces off with Angels rookie lefty Andrew Heaney. The M’s saw him in the last game of the first half, back in July, and couldn’t figure him out. Heaney tossed 7 shutout innings at the M’s, confounding them with his low 3/4 delivery and a release point that’s half way to the first base line. That should make him tough on lefties, and he is, with a FIP barely above 2 against them. As a result, he’s facing nearly 3X more right-handed batters than lefties, and with that kind of release point, you’d figure he’d really struggle against them. That hasn’t happened yet, for whatever reason. Thanks in part to a low BABIP, righties are only hitting .241/.302/.382 off of him. His FIP isn’t great, as he’s not missing many right-handed bats despite a solid change and a very good curveball.

Heaney’s running a low BABIP and an extremely low ground ball rate, which illustrates the most interesting part of Heaney’s splits. To lefties, he pairs Ks with lots of ground balls. Righties, on the other hand, hit a ton of fly balls. Both his curve and change get get sink, but while lefties swing over the top or beat them into the ground, right-handers seem to sky them. Righties have hit 11 infield flies, while lefties have hit none. This sounds like a great approach for his home park, but Heaney’s actually struggled there, giving up 6 of his 8 HRs at home.

1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Cruz, DH
4: Cano, 2B
5: Gutierrez, LF
6: Trumbo, RF
7: Montero, 1B
8: Sucre, C
9: O’Malley, CF
SP: El Cartelua

Tony Blengino used Z scores and age-relative-to-league to rank minor leaguers and then rank the MiLB systems of each club. As you’d expect, the M’s finished in the bottom third thanks to the odd struggles of DJ Peterson and Alex Jackson. The top players were Ketel Marte, who, to be fair, has looked great so far, and SP Edwin Diaz who was excellent in high A and then battled AA to a draw at 21. Blengino dubs the M’s the org that took the biggest step back. The Angels actually finished behind the M’s thanks to a dearth of hitting prospects – something that’s troubled the org for a while. With Jerry Dipoto apparently a finalist for the M’s GM opening, it’s worth noting that Dipoto really struggled in the draft as head of the Halos. His predecessor, Tony Reagins, didn’t have the reputation of a great draft/player development guy, but he DID pick Mike Trout and Kole Calhoun, Randal Grichuk, Tyler Skaggs and Patrick Corbin in one draft, then Calhoun and still-sorta-prospect Kaleb Cowart in the next.


20 Responses to “Game 155, Mariners at Angels”

  1. Westside guy on September 26th, 2015 4:32 pm

    I’m not holding my breath for the Mariners to pick anyone but yet another old-school I-only-trust-what-I-see-with-my-own-eyes guy to be their next GM.

    I’d love to be proven wrong, but given what we know about all the people in charge of making this decision – a baseball “progressive” GM selection would be a shocker.

    That said… GO FELIX!!!

  2. Longgeorge1 on September 26th, 2015 5:16 pm

    I don’t know what the M’s are going to do for GM. Right now I would settle for competent.
    It is still my “uneducated” belief that the M’s problem has been more about player development than selection.
    Kyle Seager is the only position regular to have come up through our system and excel for us. There have been a number who have been traded and excel for someone else.
    Ole! Felix!
    PS. When they drafted Felix did they look at his FIP or his arm? It is not science. When you are looking at 18 year old kids, there is a lot of dart throwing going on. Why can’t DJ Peterson hit?

  3. Sowulo on September 26th, 2015 5:40 pm

    Or Zunino……or Montero….or Ackley…..or Smoak…..

  4. Westside guy on September 26th, 2015 6:42 pm

    Nice little swing by Montero.

  5. Westside guy on September 26th, 2015 6:58 pm

    Uh oh… Pujols up with the sacks juiced.

  6. Westside guy on September 26th, 2015 7:01 pm

    Phew! Crisis averted!

  7. Longgeorge1 on September 26th, 2015 7:08 pm

    Nice SS we have right now. Seems as if the discussion this spring was Miller/Taylor.

  8. Longgeorge1 on September 26th, 2015 7:09 pm

    I hope the scout that thought Montero was a baseball player is standing at the exit of a mall holding a cardboard sign.

  9. Longgeorge1 on September 26th, 2015 7:25 pm

    How good would Guti have been if healthy? Perennial All-star? Almost certainly!

  10. Longgeorge1 on September 26th, 2015 7:30 pm

    What were teams looking at when they passed over Trout?

  11. WTF_Ms on September 26th, 2015 7:54 pm

    Well, there were 24 ahead of him, so there had to be SOMETHING???? BTW, in the running for Cy Young:

    7 the round, 221st Pick Dallas Keuchel Houston Astros Left-handed pitcher University of Arkansas

  12. Westside guy on September 26th, 2015 7:55 pm

    Had to step away for a bit… but I just saw the replay of Trout’s catch. Holy freaking crap.

  13. Longgeorge1 on September 26th, 2015 8:10 pm

    I will be the first to admit I DO NOT study amateur players and rate the draft. I watch down in Tacoma a lot and even that step from AAA to MLB is tough to figure. Marte and O’Malley both looked good in Tacoma, but Montero looked like Babe Ruth. Montero shows flashes at the plate but for the most part???? O’Malley might just be hot based on his past or has he figured out. Let’s hope Marte is the real thing>

  14. Westside guy on September 26th, 2015 8:11 pm

    EXCELLENT throw by Sucre!

    … And another!

  15. Longgeorge1 on September 26th, 2015 8:15 pm

    I guess defense is important

  16. Longgeorge1 on September 26th, 2015 8:15 pm

    I guess defense is important

  17. Longgeorge1 on September 26th, 2015 8:15 pm

    I guess defense is important

  18. Westside guy on September 26th, 2015 9:04 pm


  19. Longgeorge1 on September 26th, 2015 9:04 pm


  20. Woodcutta on September 26th, 2015 9:35 pm

    RIP Felix’s 20 win season.

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