Game 141, Rangers at Mariners
King Felix vs. Derek Holland, 12:40pm
Vidal Nuno’s night wasn’t quite perfect – not with that weird control lapse in the 2nd, and not with a couple of HBPs (though one of those was, let’s just say, questionable). But with a game score of 83, he put up one of the better starts of the year.* What struck me wasn’t just the surfeit of whiffs – that was interesting, but Nuno’s approach will get him swings and misses, particularly if he gets to face Drew Stubbs – but the nature of the contact against him. Even when the Rangers hit a ball hard, it went straight up – Shin Soo Choo’s fly out to CF looks dangerous in a box score, but the launch angle meant it never had a shot to leave the yard. Nuno induced a flurry of topped ground balls and IF pop-ups when he wasn’t striking people out. He’s still Vidal Nuno, but that was the platonic ideal of a Nuno start.
Today, the Rangers draw Felix in what’s become a pretty critical game for them. The M’s win yesterday coincided with an Astros win, meaning the Rangers are back to 2 games out in the AL West. And when Miguel Sano homered in the 12th, the Twins picked up a game in the wild card race as well. By BP’s metric, the Rangers playoff odds dropped by more than 11% yesterday, from 70% down to just under 60%. With the Twins and Astros idle today, the Rangers need to make up some of the ground they lost yesterday.
Derek Holland’s making his 6th start of the year, and the 5th since his return from injury. His velocity is right back where it was in his 2011-2013 heyday, and his slider continues to be a plus pitch, with batters whiffing on about 1/3 of them, and over half of their swings on it. He’s only walked 3 batters this year (though he’s also plunked 2), but he’s given up 5 HRs, and HR issues have been an on-again, off-again concern for the lefty for years. Beyond HRs, Holland has never been great at stranding runners, which is interesting given his very good stuff and solid K%. That inability to get out of jams is one reason why his career ERA is higher than his career FIP, despite an average to better-than-average BABIP. In general, Holland has pitched poorly with men on and especially with RISP. So it must have been a pretty fun month for Holland, as his strand rate is currently an off-the-charts 95%, and RISP are hitting .077 against him. This is the kind of small sample oddity that’s ripe for psychologizing, but we’ll leave that to others. This is due for some regression, and may the Mariners be the instrument of that regression today.
1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Cruz, DH
4: Cano, 2B
5: Trumbo, LF
6: Smith, RF
7: Montero, 1B
8: Sucre, C
9: O’Malley, CF
SP: El Cartelua
Welcome back, Nelson Cruz.
* Taijuan Walker’s CG win over Minnesota and Hisashi Iwakuma’s no-hitter are tied for the top spot at 91, and Felix had two games at 86.
Game 140, Rangers at Mariners
Vidal Nuno vs. Martin Perez, 7:10pm
With their win last night (and the Astros’ loss), the Rangers moved to within a game of the AL West lead. And over the past 7 days, the Rangers’ overall playoff odds have jumped up by over 20%, and now stand at over 70%. Some of this is the result of the recent sorting out of the playoff races – the Angels’ and Rays’ slides, coupled with the failure of Cleveland to ever make a real run in the Central means that the Yankees and Rangers have a commanding lead in the wild card chase. Only one team remains under 4.5 game back: the Minnesota Twins, a young team with a negative run differential, and whose BaseRuns performance predicts a record of 60-78, not the 71-67 they’ve actually put up.
But…wait, what about the Rangers? They too are a young team who are counting on some fairly inexperienced players in a playoff stretch. The Rangers have a negative run differential too, and by BaseRuns, they “should” be 65-72, not 73-64. That’s a remarkable amount of luck or skill or *something* that’s driving the Rangers performance. It’s not a case like the Cardinals of a few years ago, where the team was torrid in RISP opportunities. In fact, the Rangers have absolutely sucked with RISP. They have a worse OPS and a much worse wRC+ *than the Mariners* with RISP, and the M’s are no one’s idea of a clutch team. The Rangers’ team FIP and ERA are both worse than the Mariners’, so it’s not like they’re winning a bunch of 2-1 games, either. The Rangers are a very good fielding team, according to DRS and UZR, though they’re only middle of the pack when you just look at the percentage of balls in play they convert into outs.
One reason? The resurgence of previously injured and/or ineffective players like Shin-Soo Choo, who truly looked done in April and May. Since the break, he’s hitting .320/.441/.542. The entire team’s OPS rose from .712 in the first half to .752 in the second. The Rangers were lucky not to be out of the race entirely in the first half, but at least their offense has played like a playoff club’s in recent months. Their rotation hasn’t been as fortunate. Their FIP is up in the 2nd half, and that’s despite the return of guys like Derek Holland and tonight’s starter, Martin Perez.
Tonight’s match-up is interesting to me in that it pits two lefties from the opposite poles of the prospect world. Martin Perez was the #17 prospect in all of baseball in 2010, and made Baseball America’s top 100 list in *5* separate years. A lefty with a plus fastball, he reached AA at the age of 18. Beyond velo (which was always more “good” than “great”), Perez had a very good change-up and developing breaking pitches, and that helped ensure his place on prospect lists even when his on-field results looked more…modest. Despite arriving in AA early, he had difficulty escaping its gravity, and his career marks in the upper minors are underwhelming at best. Perez’s control came and went, and that meant plenty of baserunners. He battled HR issues in AA despite a strong GB%, and that helped push his RA/9 to about 5 over the course of 222 AA innings. He was better in the PCL, of all places, but that’s still damning with faint praise. His strikeouts all but vanished in AAA, and despite a better BABIP, he still gave up 4.3+ runs per 9. Now, Perez is a few months into his return from TJ surgery rehab.
Vidal Nuno was selected in the 48th round of the 2009 draft. In 2010, with Perez enduring the scrutiny of the game’s elite prospects, Nuno was enduring HR problems in A-ball, and would soon be released by the Indians, the club who drafted him out of Baker University, an NAIA school which I hope (and refuse to look up and disprove) is an institution that specializing in the study of actual baking. After a stint in the independent leagues, Nuno arrived in the Yankees org and set about demolishing minor league hitters. His MiLB track record is much shorter than Perez’s because Nuno was older, but also because he didn’t need to repeat levels: his RA/9 was below 3.00 in both AA and AAA, and his K:BB ratio was always at least 3.7 or better. He had a problem with HRs, but with good control and the ability – somehow – to miss bats, it wasn’t a fatal flaw.
Of course, the old adage that you can’t scout a stat sheet is an old adage for a reason. Perez has enjoyed sporadic success at the big league level, and his sinker/change/slider game still produces plenty of ground balls. But Perez still looks like the guy his minor league numbers would’ve predicted: his MLB K:BB ratio is just 2, and he’s still below average in terms of strikeouts. On the other hand, his 4.31 ERA looks better when you consider his home park, and by FIP, he’s been pretty good: his career mark’s below 4 (barely, but still) thanks to HR-suppression. And Nuno? Well, Nuno’s *still* struggling with the long ball, and that’s pushed his career FIP over 4.5. But as with Perez, he’s still the same basic pitcher: he still gets way more strikeouts than anyone with an 88mph fastball and a mean beignet recipe should (seriously: do not look it up. Let’s all just choose to believe Nuno is the greatest ballplayer the culinary schools have ever produced). His career K:BB is nearly 3, and it’s been nearly 4 this year. Neither player is a hulking specimen or throws 100, but Perez just *looks* more like a big league pitcher than Nuno. But despite opposite pedigrees and contrasting approaches/skillsets, they’ve ended up reasonably similar in terms of on-field production. Perez has pitched a few more innings (despite missing a full year), but it’s close. Nuno has a much better career RA/9. Perez has a much better FIP. Going forward, I think their projections are going to look fairly similar, with some improvement in Perez’s K:BB and BABIP, and some improvement in Nuno’s HR:FB ratio as well. Nuno doesn’t really have a job, though, and it’s possible he’ll end up in out-of-option, AAA purgatory. Ah, the power of the pedigree.
1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Trumbo, 1B
4: Cano, 2B
5: Montero, DH
6: Miller, LF
7: Romero, RF
8: Baron, C
9: O’Malley, CF
SP: Nuno
Welcome to the bigs, Steve Baron. It’s been a long road for the 2nd of the M’s 2 first round picks in 2009 (#33 overall). Defensively advanced, the M’s believed they could develop his bat over time. After 5 mostly miserable years at the plate, I think we all thought Baron might go the Jesus Sucre route of a useful minor league FA signing, and that his days as a prospect were over, if they hadn’t been over since 2012-13 or so. Then, Baron hit a bit in AA this year, and after moving up to AAA, he hit more. By the time Hicks was called up, I’d have said Baron was the better bat, with Hicks having a slight edge defensively. “Better than Hicks offensively” is a far cry from “look out Buster Posey,” but I’m actually really happy for Baron. The temptation to quit must’ve been there, but he stuck with it. Well done.
Tri-City calmly dispatched Everett in game 2 of the best-of-3 NWL semifinals last night, officially ending the M’s minor league campaign of 2015.
Game 139, Rangers at Mariners
Taijuan Walker vs. Cole Hamels, 7:10pm
To the surprise of no one, the M’s added another catcher from AAA Tacoma today, now that the minor league season’s ended. To the surprise of many, that catcher was not Mike Zunino, but Steve Baron. Picking over Zunino’s batting stats seems like it’s kicking a man when he’s down, but it really is a target-rich environment for bloggers. Zunino had one of the worst contact rates, and one of the absolute worst contact rates for pitches *in* the strike zone. I mentioned before the year that he’d need to reduce his O-Sw%, and he did exactly that. It just didn’t matter, due to his problems hitting strikes and a surprising inability to drive the ball at all against left-handed pitching.
Zunino is pretty far off in the tail of the big league distribution for contact, and it’s true that many of the players whose contact stats are similar make up for their failings by walking a lot and/or slugging the crap out of the ball. But in looking at Zunino’s stats, it’s somewhat surprising that the peripherals aren’t *worse*. That is, he’s got a very similar zone-contact rate as Joc Pederson and Kris Bryant, and Zunino’s numbers are better than Chris Davis’ or George Springer’s. You *can* make it in the league if your pitch recognition is poor, but you need to punish the ball – consistently – when you DO make contact. That’s the part that’s frustrating. Zunino doesn’t have to hit as well as Bryant or Pederson or Davis – he’s a good catcher, and that goes a long way. But something was going very wrong with Zunino’s approach, and it’s clear the M’s don’t think it was fixed in the last 10 days. As Ryan Divish reported, Zunino (and SS Chris Taylor*) will head to extended Spring Training where they’ll work with Rainiers hitting coach Cory Snyder. It sounds like Zunino’s not working on tweaks or approach (as he did this spring) but an entirely new swing.
The Rangers’ Joey Gallo’s numbers are, if anything, more eye-popping than Zunino’s. SSS warning, but in a little over 100 plate appearances, Gallo’s struck out 49 times. His O-sw% is similar to Zunino’s, and nothing out of the ordinary, but he’s made contact on only 6 of 10 swings at pitches in the zone – far worse than Zunino. Zunino has the whole “catcher” thing that takes the sting out of poor plate discipline, but Gallo has another good reason for patience with developmental…uh…hurdles: true 80-grade power. It’ll be worth seeing if he can make it work, though his K% spiked after his demotion to AAA earlier this year. The Cubs Javier Baez seems to have made real progress this year, so it’s not the kiss of death, but Gallo’s a great test case; if Gallo can stick in the majors, then Zunino can.
Taijuan Walker’s had a frustrating year, like many of his teammates, but with nearly 2 fWAR already, he’s been incredibly valuable in stabilizing an M’s rotation that’s struggled in the second half. Sure, his ERA is worse than his FIP, and he’s given up too many HRs, but luck has obviously played a part in that. The M’s OF has been, depending on how you measure it, either the worst in the AL or merely below-average, and that’s been tough on a fly-ball pitcher like Walker. His K:BB ratio of 3.7 is promising, and though he’s clearly got plenty to do this off-season, it’s a great sign that this and his K-BB% continues to climb as he gets older. We haven’t seen the best version of Taijuan Walker yet.
1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Romero, RF
4: Cano, 2B
5: Trumbo, LF
6: Morrison, 1B
7: Montero, DH
8: O’Malley, CF
9: Sucre, C
SP: Walker
Looking at the M’s WAR by position is kind of interesting. I thought CF might be a possible area of weakness, but they’ve been OK thus far, posting 2.3 fWAR and being essentially dead-on league average at the plate. What *IS* stunning is that Shawn O’Malley has been worth fully 0.6 fWAR of the 2.3. In 4 games. In 15 PAs.
To make room for Steve Baron (and JC Ramirez), who wasn’t on the 40-man roster, the M’s transferred Charlie Furbush from the 15- to the 60-day DL. They had an open spot when they outrighted Lucas Luetge to AAA a few days back.
* Chris Taylor seemed to respond well to small changes recommended by Snyder – he posted an .880 OPS in the 2nd half of the year after struggling in the month before his call-up.
Game 138, Rangers at Mariners
Roenis Elias vs. Yovani Gallardo, 3:40pm
Happy Labor Day
The Rangers come to town with a game and a half lead on the Minnesota Twins for the 2nd wildcard spot. The Rangers were projected as the AL West doormats by a wide, wide margin and Fangraphs gave them a 2.5% chance of taking a wildcard spot. Minnesota played in a weaker division, according to the projections, but were so terrible that they had only a 2.1% shot of winning a wildcard. 2015, ladies and gentlemen. The Mariners and Red Sox each had odds of winning their respective divisions of over….ah nevermind. This has been a painful year in many respects, but I’ll take some amount of solace from the insane years both Texas and Minnesota have had. You can vary from your projections up as well as down, right? Right Mariners?
Yovani Gallardo has quietly become one of the better and more important off-season trades. Not as big of an impact as the Josh Donaldson deal, perhaps, but the Rangers picked up a quality starter cheap, and then – crucially – held on to him at the deadline just as Anaheim started their slide out of the wildcard competition. The Rangers are 71-64 despite hitting like the Mariners with RISP and despite the fact that Colby Lewis has pitched the most innings on the team by far. Without Gallardo, the Rangers would have had to rely on the plainly not-ready Anthony Ranaudo or they would’ve been forced to keep giving Ross Detwiler starts. Instead, they’ve got a steady 2.2 fWAR or 3.8 RA-9-WAR out of Gallardo for some lower-tier prospects.
Gallardo has a Sean Nolin-esque straight/rising fastball with about 10-11″ of vertical movement and essentially no horizontal run. In recent years, he’s throwing quite a few sinkers – a pitch that doesn’t move like a traditional sinker, but at least has a bit less rise than his four-seamer. His primary breaking pitch is a slider, and he’ll throw it to righties and lefties alike. Coming up, Gallardo threw a curve ball, and while he’s still got it in his arsenal, it’s now in a secondary role. The shape of his fastball and his over-the-top delivery help him reduce platoon splits – in his career, he’s got a 3.76 FIP vs. lefties and a 3.72 mark against righties.
In the past, his rising FB led to very low GB% and a consequent glut of HRs. In recent years, he’s pushed his GB% to around 50%, which is remarkable given his fastballs. The sinker’s clearly helped, but his slider’s done a lot of good, too. While it doesn’t have sharp downward break like some, it’s thrown very hard and its shape is different enough from Gallardo’s fastball that it seems harder for hitters to elevate. It’s essentially a cutter – at only about 3-4mph slower than his fastball. For whatever reason, less than 10% of balls in play off the slider have been fly balls this year.
1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Trumbo, DH
4: Cano, 2B
5: Smith, LF
6: Morrison, 1B
7: MIller, CF
8: Hicks, C
9: O’Malley, RF
SP: Elias
Shawn O’Malley is the starting RF. Shawn O’Malley is the M’s hottest hitter. What a time to be alive.
Edgar Olmos has been optioned to Tacoma.
It’s the last day of the Minor League regular season – it’s been a dismal year for the M’s system in general, though there have obviously been bright spots. The M’s seem to need an overhaul of their player development system, which is the kind of the thing a new GM will be eager to start on. I hope this is the central focus of each GM interview the M’s hold.
Tacoma played spoilers, knocking Las Vegas out of the playoffs and sending El Paso instead with their 6-3 win in Vegas. Chien Ming Wang pitched well, and Tacoma put up 5 runs in the 6th. Tyler Olson starts today against MLB vet Tim Stauffer.
Jackson got back to back HRs from Marcus Littlewood and Jabari Henry, but it wasn’t enough as Chattanooga came back for an 11-10 win in 10 innings. Today’s game features Edwin Diaz, now clearly one of the M’s top 3 prospects.
Bakersfield beat San Jose 8-6 behind 6 extra base hits. Tyler O’Neill tripled, but the star of the game was Justin Seager who doubled and homered. Scott DeCecco starts today’s game.
Clinton lost to Cedar Rapids 3-1 despite 5 shut-out innings from starter Zack Littell. Tyler Herb starts today’s season-ender. If there’s any good news, with their win on Saturday, the Lumberkings cannot reach 50 games under .500.
Everett limped into the playoffs, losing last night’s game 11-0. Drew Jackson and Braden Bishop finished 1-2 in batting average in the NWL, with Jackson winning MVP. They’ll face Tri City tonight, but they’ll have to do it without reliever Joe Pistorese, who was suspended 50 games when a banned substance turned up in his urine sample. Pistorese argued it was a prescribed medication, but MiLB denied his appeal, as Jason Churchill noted.
Game 137, Mariners at Athletics
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Sean Nolin, 1:05pm
The M’s enter the game looking like a reasonably decent team. Sure, they’re a go-nowhere team beating up on a last-place team, but watching them is sort of fun as opposed to the chore it was a month or so ago. They’ve made roster changes, weathered injury issues and generally looked like a team with some semblance of a plan. All the same, this exact phenomenon – the September or second-half surge in a lost season – looks awfully familiar. 2012 was a classic of the genre, when the M’s were over .500 in the second half. The M’s offense late in 2011 was rounding into shape too, once the team cut Jack Cust and let Mike Carp and Alex Liddi get regular play. Baseball’s such a data-rich environment, it will always offer you reasons for optimism.
That’s perhaps an overly dim lead-in to a random September game, so let me say that as bad as this year’s been for us, I think it must be worse for A’s fans. At some level, you have to learn to love the process and churn itself. The games, and the people who play them, may turn out good or bad, but to be an Oakland fan, you have to put your emotional investment in the front office the way other people do in players. I don’t think that’s obviously “wrong” or stupid, but it’s pretty unique. If you DON’T do so, you run the risk of buying Josh Donaldson jerseys for your kids and watch as the A’s trade him away. GMs should always listen to offers, and there are fair returns for everyone, but this off-season was something of a test for A’s fans.
It’s probably a bit early to fully judge the deal, but at this point, things look pretty bad for Beane and company. Josh Donaldson may be the favorite for AL MVP, and while the A’s got a few near-MLB ready arms (and of course 3B Brett Lawrie and young SS prospect Franklin Barreto), their ceilings are extremely low. Today’s starter, Sean Nolin, was one of the arms the A’s got in exchange for the best 3B in baseball. Along with Kendall Graveman, Nolin wasn’t highly touted, but tore through the Jays minor league system. While Graveman’s sinker didn’t miss any bats, Nolin’s deceptive, rising four-seamer allowed him to post consistently good K rates. Injuries and exposure in AAA and in brief MLB call-ups slowed his progress, and scouts still don’t see much more than #4 upside.
Nolin’s four-seam fastball is only 90-91, but it has extreme vertical rise – it looks a lot like Chris Tillman’s. And like Tillman, that means that Nolin’s an equally extreme fly-ball pitcher. He pairs it with a good change-up. He’s got a slider and curve, but neither offering elicits a lot of praise from those who’ve seen him pitch. It sounds like he spent much of his time in AAA Nashville learning from Barry Zito, and his slow curve may be better for it.
One of the things that a straight, rising FB is supposed to do is suppress platoon splits. Thus far, that hasn’t really happened – in the minors, Nolin has dominated lefties while battling righties to a draw. That’s kind of hard to square with the idea that his change-up’s a plus pitch; I suppose we’ll see today. Likewise, Nolin’s control was never above average, which hurts his ability to pitch around the home runs that anyone with his flyball% will give up. If he can’t get back to the high strikeout totals he showed in the low minors, and I wouldn’t bet on that, then he’ll have to post consistently low BABIPs. Guys with better control, like Wei-Yin Chen, can be reasonably effective, and Marco Estrada’s volatile but decent as well.
1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Romero, RF
4: Cano, 2B
5: Trumbo, LF
6: Morrison, 1B
7: Miller, 2B
8: Sucre, C
9: O’Malley, CF
SP: Kuma
Keep the ball on the ground, ‘Kuma. A long-time journeyman 2B is the best defensive OF for the M’s.
A late rally carried Las Vegas past Tacoma 8-7. Jesus Montero hit another HR, and Mike Montgomery was decent in a tough park to pitch in, but Sam Gaviglio and JC Ramirez couldn’t hold a 7-4 lead. Chien-Ming Wang starts today in Vegas.
Jackson beat Chattanooga thanks to 3 hits from lead-off man Ian Miller and 5 2/3 sharp innings from Dylan Unsworth. The South African has really settled down after a poor start to the year in his first taste of AA. After getting demoted to Bakersfield, Unsworth seems to have overhauled his pitches -his GB% is up sharply, and he’s been able to compete in the Southern League. The video-game level walk levels (he walked 2 batters in 2013, for example) aren’t going to survive the transition to the high minors, but he’s still learning and adapting – a good sign. Jimmy Gilheeney starts today against Twins prospect Brett Lee. Lee studiously avoids strikeout (you can see why the Twins drafted him), but has given up very few earned runs at every level he’s pitched at. He’s given up a remarkable number of UNearned runs, however.
Bakersfield edged San Jose 3-2 thanks to Tyler O’Neill’s 32nd HR of the year. Ryan Yarbrough struck out 8 over 7 IP; he’s looked light-years better since his return from extended spring training. Today, Brett Ash shares the mound against San Jose’s Jodan Johnson.
Cedar Rapids mauled Clinton 9-3. The L-kings actually out-hit the Kernals. That kind of year in Clinton. Today, Zack Littell makes his final start of 2015.
Everett got shut-out by Vancouver 6-0. The AquaSox host Tri-City tomorrow in the NWL playoffs. Congrats to them as well as the rookie-league Arizona Mariners as the only affiliates to make their league playoffs and the only clubs to finish over .500. Both teams were laden with college draftees, but signs of life are signs of life.
Game 136, Mariners at Athletics
King Felix vs. Jesse Chavez, 6:05pm
Happy Felix Day. Our valiant King was signed under the Pat Gillick regime, made his debut during Bill Bavasi’s tenure and signed his extension under Jack Zduriencik. Felix doesn’t seem to care much about the team’s front office, and I don’t think he should, but it’s frustrating to watch the way the M’s have wasted so much of Felix’s peak. At least Ichiro got to play a bit of playoff baseball. One of the most damning indictments of the GMZ era is that their record was so poor despite Felix pitching at or near Cy Young level every year.
Jesse Chavez faced the M’s 2 starts ago, and also in July; he’s still the same sinker/cutter guy he’s been for the past few years, though he is throwing a curve ball now – a pitch he wasn’t throwing back in July. He’s struggled against lefties this year, as his cutter hasn’t been quite as effective as it was in 2014.
Felix’s velocity seems stable, though of course it really ought to be considering that the M’s are giving him some extra days off. Like pretty much every Mariner, a big reason why Felix’s stats aren’t quite as royal as they normally are is that he’s struggled with men on base. With men on, his wOBA against is essentially dead on his career average. But with men on base, it’s been considerably worse. His FIP is about the same either way, so this is essentially a BABIP-driven phenomenon. Normally, you’d say that he’s just gotten unlucky and he’ll be back to being Felix in short order, but we’ve seen this so consistently from the M’s, you’ve got to wonder if something else is going on.
The offense’s situational struggles have received a lot of attention – their .289 wOBA with men in scoring position is the worst in the AL. But the M’s pitchers have been consistently worse with men in scoring position as well, and it hasn’t just been a bullpen problem. If you check out the M’s record just using base runs – which strips out context and just tallies up the puts and takes from each plate appearance – the M’s projected record (65-70) is nearly dead on their actual record (64-71). This doesn’t mean that sequencing hasn’t been important, though – it just means that abysmal offensive performance with RISP has been almost entirely counteracted by the abysmal performance of the pitching staff. Just counting up the hits and outs, the M’s are projected to score 4.33 runs per game. In actuality, they’ve scored just under 4. The pitching staff “should have” given up 4.5 runs per game, but they’re actually giving up a bit more than 4.6. You can look at their pythagorean record and say that the M’s have gotten lucky, but the real story is why other teams convert more baserunners into runs on offense and strand more runners on defense.
Their BABIP with men on is bad as a team, as you’d expect, but that still an odd driver of a phenomenon like this. Like Felix, the M’s GB% goes up with men on and with RISP, and you’d expect BABIP to go up along with it. They’ve given up more balls classified as hard hit, but the change is small and it isn’t matched by a change in LD%. It’s tough to know what – if anything – is going on. I’d love to ask potential GMs what they think is going on, just to hear how they think and what kind of information they want. More than that, though, I’d like Felix to get back to being Felix, and I want his defenders to assist him in doing that.
1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Cano, 2B
4: Smith, RF
5: Morrison, 1B
6: Trumbo, DH
7: Miller, CF
8: Sucre, C
9: O’Malley, LF
SP: El Rey
Very Maddon-esque to bat Sucre 8th.
Cruz’s hamstring is still a bit sore, and Guti’s groin necessitated an early exit from yesterday’s game, but this would probably have been O’Malley’s game anyway with the righty Chavez on the hill.
Las Vegas beat up Tacoma 9-4 despite 3 hits from Chris Taylor. Mets prospects Dilson Herrera and Brandon Nimmo homered and Dillon Gee gave up 1 run in 7 strong innings. Mike Montgomery starts for the R’s today.
Chattanooga dominated the Jackson Generals 8-2. The Lookouts had 14 hits and drew 6 walks too, with 3 from Twins prospect Max Kepler. Misael Siverio wasn’t sharp. Dylan Unsworth starts today, so we’ll see a South African pitch to a German OF.
Bakersfield continued their recent run, blanking the San Jose Giants 2-0. Tyler Pike scattered 3 hits and a walk, while striking out 7 in his 7 IP. Pike also had 7 shutout innings in late July, but last night was his best outing of the year – his 7:1 K:BB ratio last night is loads better than the 4:3 from his earlier start. The Blaze got two unearned runs off Martin Agosta, which was nice, as Agosta fanned 9 in 6 innings and then turned things over to overpowering reliever Ray Black. Today, Ryan Yarbrough will try to match Pike as he shares the mound with Christian Jones, a lefty out of the University of Oregon who’s pitched out of the pen this year.
Eddie Campbell threw 7 solid innings of his own in Clinton’s 3-1 win over Beloit. The lefty didn’t fare well in the Cal League, but he’s been very sharp since his return to the MWL in August. Closer Ronald Dominguez is on a roll of his own, with 23 Ks and just 4 walks in his last 8 appearances, covering 18 1/3 IP. Lukas Schiraldi starts for the L-Kings today.
Vancouver destroyed Everett 12-5. Drew Jackson went 0-3 with a couple of walks. Today, Jackson was named the MVP of the NWL with a slash line of .362/.437/.452 – not bad from a cannon-armed SS. OF Corey Simpson is on an 0-13 skid right now with 9 Ks. He drew the dreaded platinum sombrero yesterday with 5Ks in 5 plate appearances. No word on today’s starter for Everett. The AquaSox finish off this series with Vancouver tomorrow, then head home to start their playoff series with Tri-City on Monday – the series begins in Everett. If you’re in the area, go.
Game 135, Mariners at Athletics
Edgar Olmos vs. Aaron Brooks, 7:05pm
The two huge disappointments of the AL West collide attempt to make small talk and avoid eye contact as the M’s head to Oakland. If you told someone in March that Olmos and Brooks would meet as starters in a September game, they’d have 1) thought you were crazy and 2) that the M’s and A’s seasons were worse than pretty much any “worst case scenario” imagined by the projection systems. Both may be true, but #2 is *definitely* true.
Brooks began the year in the Kansas City system. He’d made his MLB debut in 2014, but it was a harrowing ordeal: Brooks gave up 13 runs in less than 3 IP. His first start lasted 2/3 of an inning, and he gave up 7 runs despite facing only 11 batters. He got further opportunities to pitch in KC this spring thanks to the wave of injuries that hit the Royals, but seemed destined for the bullpen, particularly after his last appearance – in long relief against Boston – went poorly. Instead, he was added to the package headed to Oakland in exchange for Ben Zobrist, and after making a couple a starts for Nashville, he was back in a big league rotation on August 1st.
Since then, the righty’s made 4 starts, 3 of which were quality starts. He’s always shown very good control; he’s never had a minor league season with a BB/9 over 2. Without a ton of velocity or top-shelf stuff, he’s unlikely ever to miss enough bats to give himself a big margin of error. The control helps, but they can’t cover for a lack of outs, and it’s a general inability to miss bat barrels that led most observers to assume he’d become a non-closing reliever. Even in the minors, he gave up too may hits and too many HRs; with a rising four-seam fastball, his GB% was always low, and that further eroded his cushion.
Still, the A’s have turned worse raw material into annoyingly effective players. Since arriving in Oakland, Brooks is throwing more of his sinker -a pitch he didn’t throw much at all with the Royals. His best pitch looks to be his change-up, an 83mph offering with very good sink. He’s traditionally used a slider against right-handers, but he’s also got a curve. Thus far, Brooks has fared much better against lefties than righties, thanks primarily to his change: lefties have come up empty on about 1/2 of their swings on the change (it should go without saying, but the sample sizes here are miniscule). Over time, it’ll be interesting to see if Brooks is able to make the necessary adjustments to his sinker and slider to help him be more effective against righties, or if lefties will begin to adjust to his change. For guys like this, it’s a critical one: if the former, he’ll be a decent #5 starter in the bigs. If the latter, he’ll really get to know the cities of the PCL.
Edgar Olmos is still rather odd, as he looks to have good or at the very least *intriguing* stuff, but he couldn’t miss a bit if it was left on a chair in the batters box. His four-seam and sinker have all sorts of sink and run, and his curve must have impressive spin – and they’re put in play routinely. His change-up is ok too, and it’s what’s allowing him to get these spot-starts, but it’s not helping get strikeouts. His arsenal is notable in that it induces grounders, and that keeps the ball in the park. Olmos still hasn’t given up a HR this year, and if I knew that he had some of the old Chris Young magic in him, I’d be less concerned about the lack of whiffs.
1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Gutierrez, LF
4: Cano, 2B
5: Smith, RF
6: Trumbo, DH
7: Morrison, 1B
8: Miller, CF
9: Hicks, C
SP: Olmos
Kiley McDaniel runs through some of the candidates for the M’s GM position (and others) here – it’s worth your time. McDaniel mentions Jerry Dipoto, who apparently lost out to Zduriencik back in 2008, but we now know he’ll be interviewed. The “almost GM” group that McDaniel discusses seems the most intriguing to me and many others (and I think Kim Ng could fit in that group), but Kevin Mather’s public statements would seem to rule them out. I can see a David Forst or John Coppolella arguing that they’ve been doing many GM-level functions already, so that the worry about on-the-job learning is misplaced, but we’ll see. A lot of this depends on what Mather and M’s ownership see as Zduriencik’s biggest flaws – was it evaluation/player development, or did they see his inexperience at the GM level as a key factor that fed in to the various subsidiary disappointments?
A day after losing James Paxton to a finger injury, the M’s lost to Salt Lake 4-2. Jabari Blash was out for the 2nd straight game with a sore knee, but it sounds like he can play in the year’s final series in Las Vegas. Tonight, the Rainiers’ Adrian Sampson takes on Dillon Gee, who was having a so-so year in the Mets’ rotation before being supplanted by Noah Syndergaard and, for a time, Steven Matz.
Jackson beat Chattanooga 5-2 thanks to a strong start from Stephen Landazuri and another dominant outing by reliever Paul Fry. Fry got a 4-out save with all 4 coming via the strikeout, giving him 70 Ks in 55 AA innings. Today, Misael Siverio takes on David Hurlbut of the Lookouts, a sinkerballing veteran who’s been quite effective in the low minors and reasonably solid in AA despite being a 28th-round pick. The Twins may not get enough credit for the job their player development group does; the Lookouts best player is German OF Max Kepler, who’s having his best season as a pro, Jose Berrios earned a promotion to AAA, and obviously Miguel Sano’s done pretty well.
Bakersfield beat Lancaster 6-2 behind HRs from OFs Tyler O’Neill and Austin Wilson. Dan Altavilla pitched pretty well for 5 innings, and the bullpen locked it down behind him. Closer Emilio Pagan has handled the Cal League quite well – he’s maintained or improved most of his peripheral stats over last year despite moving from the pitcher-friendly Midwest League to the pitcher-soul-destroying California League. Tyler Pike starts today against Martin Agosta of San Jose, a player the Blaze are pretty familiar with by now – this will be his 7th appearance against them. He’s made 3 starts recently against the Blaze, and had 3 relief appearances earlier in the season.
Clinton’s latest humiliation was an 11-3 drubbing at the hands of Beloit. Eddie Campbell, who’s actually been quite good recently, starts for the L-Kings today.
Spokane beat Everett 4-1, handing Luiz Gohara his 3rd consecutive loss. It’s hard to remember that he started the year with 3 solid starts- he didn’t surrender an earned run in any of them. After that, it’s been ugly. Yesterday, he walked 6 and gave up 3 runs in 3 2/3 IP. Today, Everett heads to Vancouver to take on the Canadians.
Gmae 134, Mariners at Astros
Taijuan Walker vs. Scott Kazmir, 5:10pm
Among the many fascinating – and not always encouraging – stats about Tai Walker’s 2015, this is one of the most striking: With no one on, Walker’s giving up a .603 OPS and has posted a HR% of 2.2%. With men on base, Walker’s giving up a .912 OPS and has a HR% of 5.5%. It’s stunning, sure, but it’s also tough to know what to do with it. He’s given up 22 HRs on the year, and now we’re looking at divvying those up. Still, Walker’s been much better than league average with no one on and he’s been much, much worse than league average once someone’s on base. There are a number of possible reasons for this, but it can’t be that he struggles from the stretch…he now throws from the stretch at all times, so that can’t be it. It could have something to do with release point variance if he’s got even a tiny bit of his head focused on a runner – his splits with a runner on 1st are the worst of all, but we’re now looking at splits of splits. It could have something to do with a change in pitch mix/approach with runners on. He throws more splitters with men on base, but he seems to have given up more solo shots on splitters.
It’s possible that we can find some physical difference by scanning the video or pitch fx – maybe there’s a subtle ‘tell’ that he has with men on. But as this great Adam Sobsey piece about Jake Arrieta shows, it’s just as likely that the difference is purely a mental one. Seriously, go read that and think about Walker and has on-again/off-again struggles with big innings and see if it doesn’t sound familiar. I don’t know why Walker can look so dominant and then struggle after a walk or HBP, but I want to feel more confident that the M’s can help him improve. Going way back to the beginning of the Zduriencik era, we all had what now seem like insanely optimistic views of the changes in approach that he was bringing in throughout the system. A new strength/conditioning approach based on sport-specific exercises would revolutionize training. Performance coaches to work on just the kind of mental adjustments that made such a difference for Arrieta would unlock potential in stalled-out prospects, etc. None of it appears to have made a difference at all, or at least, not a positive difference. And that clearly has an impact on how I’ll react when the new crew touts their specialized movement coaches or nutritional advisors. But that doesn’t mean this stuff doesn’t matter, it just means it’s really hard to know what you’re buying.
Scott Kazmir’s made some changes of his own since moving over from Oakland in late July. He’s throwing more sliders now to lefties, but given his historical splits, it shouldn’t be a huge surprise that he tends to see a lot more righties. There, the changes are a bit harder to see, though he’s throwing a few less change-ups and a couple more curves. His cutter’s something of an interesting pitch, in that it’s so slider-like but without a ton of vertical movement. He throws a proper slider as well that has similar horizontal movement but much more drop. Despite the cutter’s lack of drop, it’s been an incredibly good ground ball pitch. That’s probably a good thing, as his fastball (four-seam and sinker) have a ton of vertical rise, and aren’t hit on the ground that much. The cutter combines contact (batters put in play a lot) with contact-type (batters hit it into the ground a lot), which is handy when you’re in a double-play situation. With men on 1st, Kazmir’s OPS-against this year is .479, which compares rather favorably to Walker’s 1.043.
1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Cruz, DH
4: Cano, 2B
5: Gutierrez, LF
6: Trumbo, 1B
7: Romero, RF
8: Sucre, C
9: O’Malley, CF
SP: Walker
Welcome to the Mariners, Shawn O’Malley. The switch-hitting O’Malley hasn’t played CF in the majors before, but got a few games in LF for the Angels last year. The Richland, WA native missed nearly all of July with an injury, and after an adjustment period, finished August strong, racking up 20 total based in his last 5 games. He spent most of the year at 2B, but he did play 11 games in CF for the Rainiers.
The R’s lost in Salt Lake 10-1, despite a reasonably strong start from lefty Tyler Olson. The bullpen (Beimel, Sam Gaviglio and newcomer Matt Anderson) gave up 8 runs in 3 IP. Today, the Rainiers send James Paxton out for his next rehab start. He’ll face Nick Tropeano. Joining the R’s yet again will be 1B Jesus Montero, who is one of the rare players to get sent down AFTER rosters expand. Lloyd McClendon said they wanted to get him more ABs, and that’s harder now with Mark Trumbo actually hitting, but it’s still got to sting for Montero.
Jackson’s off today, but they finished off theirs series with Pensacola with an 8-7 win. SS Tyler Smith reacted to being named to the AFL with a 4-5 night. Edwin Diaz got the win, but it was a struggle – his 6:0 K:BB ratio in 5 IP was great, but the 9 hits and 6 runs were less great. Another AFL selectee, Paul Fry, struck out 3 but had some uncharacteristic wildness, walking 2, in the 9th.
Bakersfield shut out Lancaster 2-0 behind 7 strong innings from Brett Ash. The righty struck out 5, and then Emilio Pagan struck out the side in the 9th for a classy save. Scott DeCecco starts tonight.
Clinton thought about blowing it, but eked out a 10-9 decision over Wisconsin. The TimberRattlers scored 2 in the 9th off of Ronald Dominguez, but he got the final out. Zack Littell has been scuffling of late, and this was perhaps his worst start, going 4 IP and giving up 7 runs. It’s been a solid season overall for the 19 year old, who may be tiring given he pitched only 70 innings last season. Tyler Herb leads Clinton as they welcome Beloit tonight.
Everett briefly held a 6-1 lead over Spokane, but couldn’t hold it – they lost 7-6 on a walkoff double in the 10th. Andrew Moore started and threw 3 scoreless, but he doubled his walk total on the year. He’s now given up 2, against 43 strikeouts. Ryan Uhl had 2 hits including a double. Enyel de los Santos takes the mound for the AquaSox tonight in Spokane.
Game 133, Mariners at Astros
Roenis Elias vs. Scott Feldman, 5:10pm
Quick one today, as Feldman’s a well-known quantity and because there’ve been so many moves, they deserve a separate post.
To refresh your memory, Feldman’s a cutter/sinker guy with a curve as his breaking ball. He made his debut back in 2005, and joined the Rangers rotation in 2008. His sinker and cutter both generate grounders, which helped him survive in Arlington. His cutter’s become a real weapon against left-handed bats, and he’s somewhat famously posted reverse platoon splits for years as a result. To be fair, though, it’s an odd kind of weapon: Feldman doesn’t get more whiffs or strikeouts or out-of-zone swings than most pitchers. He’s below average in each of those metrics. Instead, he’s been very successful at keeping left-handers in the ballpark. That sounds like something of a fluky stat to build your value around (not that this would’ve been a conscious process), but he’s been doing it so long, it stops looking like luck. He’s not an extreme GB guy, and thus he’s not an extreme HR-suppressor like Dallas Keuchel (who, of course, gave up a HR yesterday), but it’s enough that Feldman can be a perfectly solid #3-4 for years.
1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Cruz, RF
4: Cano, 2B
5: Gutierrez, DH
6: Smith, LF
7: Trumbo, 1B
8: Miller, CF
9: Hicks, C
SP: Elias
News: Justin Ruggiano was traded for cash considerations to the LA Dodgers, whose OF is banged up at the moment. As the deal went down before midnight, Ruggiano has playoff eligibility for LA.
The M’s announced their first round of call-ups today: Stefen Romero, Jose Ramirez, Tony Zych and Shawn O’Malley are all joining the team in Houston. No James Jones or Mike Zunino yet. Zunino has to wait 10 days, and James Jones isn’t quite 100% after his injury – they figure to be up when Tacoma’s season ends in less than a week. Ramon Flores would’ve been in this group, but he suffered a gruesome compound fracture of his ankle in a game a few days ago.
In addition, the M’s announced their Arizona Fall League selections today. The group is headlined by James Paxton, who needs innings after his injury. Also heading south will by RP Paul Fry, RP David Rollins, and RP Tony Zych, IF DJ Peterson and SS Tyler Smith, and OF Tyler O’Neill. Peterson’s the big prospect name, and Tyler O’Neill is coming off an eye-opening season, but I’m interested to see how Paul Fry fares. As an unheralded pick, Fry, a lefty reliever, certainly has the most eye-popping 2015 stats.