Game 59, Indians at Mariners
Taijuan Walker vs. Carlos Carrasco, 7:10pm
Last night’s win was a big one, not just to snap a losing streak that saw their playoff odds tumble, but because they needed to start winning games they should win. When Cody Anderson fills in for an injured Danny Salazar, you need to take advantage. Tonight, the M’s face a top-notch starter, but one who’s coming off a long layoff with a hamstring injury, and is having something of a let-down season. Can the M’s take advantage?
Carlos Carrasco turned heads in the second half of 2014, when the long-time swing man/reliever moved back into the rotation out of necessity and starting blowing people away. In 14 starts, he struck out 10 per 9IP, walked less than 2, and posted a FIP of 2.22 while sustaining 95mph velocity and throwing a nasty slider and change to back it up. Last year, Carrasco sustained the spike in K rate, posted another lovely FIP, but allowed quite a few more runs than his FIP would’ve predicted. His HR/FB rate went from good-lucky in 2014 to bad-lucky in 2015, and that essentially counteracted the improvements in K:BB. But the real story in his 2015 splits wasn’t platoon splits; lefties weren’t driving his increased dinger rate. Instead, it was his home park. Carrasco got hit much harder at home than he did on the road, giving up 12 HRs at home to just 6 on the road, despite logging more innings away from Cleveland. It pushed his home ERA/FIP well above his overall mark, but while Cleveland’s a good hitter’s park, it seemed like an oddity. Given the samples here, it probably *is* and oddity, but it’s a funny one. In 2016, that trend continues. He’s given up 5 HRs on the year, and *all* of them have come at home. At home, his ERA is 4.41, similar to last year’s 5.03, and his road ERA is 0.84 (2.49 last year). Are the M’s doomed because they’re playing in Safeco? No, and they should do their part to restore some balance to these nonsensical splits by hitting several homers tonight.
Carrasco’s velocity’s down about a tick on the fastball (he throws a four-seam and a sinker, both with some sink to them), and his fastball’s given him problems thus far. 4 of his 5 HRs allowed have come on FB, so he’s given up 4 HRs and struck out only 4 on four-seamers and sinkers combined. That’s good for the M’s, as Carrasco’s other pitches still look nasty. He throws a hard slider that looks cutter-y to me, so we’ll see two pitchers tonight who throw what look to any neutral observers like cutters, but they call them sliders. He’s also got a very hard curve (~82-83mph) with some good break. His change-up is, like everything else he throws, very hard at about 89mph. In speed and movement, it’s an absolute dead ringer for Felix’s hard cambio. At least in 2015, the results on it were similar, too – both get swinging strikes and a ton of grounders on that pitch, despite the fact that the velocity gap between change and fastball is quite different for each pitcher. The moral of the story here for the M’s is keep Carrasco in FB counts, and don’t take fastballs in the zone.
In the past two years, Carrasco’s been masterful at getting batters to chase, but his o-swing% has tumbled this year – it’s gone from 39% a year ago to just 26% this year. Given his layoff, the 2016 sample’s tiny, and Bauer’s awful o-swing numbers didn’t appear predictive in his start against the M’s. Still, it’s another encouraging sign that Carrasco’s not quite the ace-in-the-making he appeared to be in 2014.
1: Aoki, CF
2: Smith, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Lind, 1B
7: Gutierrez, RF
8: Marte, SS
9: Iannetta, C
SP: Walker
Ketel Marte’s neck spasms forced him out after batting practice yesterday, but he seems to have healed up. Weird glut of short-lived neck spasms on the M’s this year…
As mentioned last night, the Rainiers had a forgettable day in Las Vegas, as Adrian Sampson got knocked around for the first time. So forget that. Today, the story is that Tacoma will host the 2017 AAA All-Star game, quite a coup for Cheney and Tacoma. That should be a fun one – I look forward to seeing some pretty good prospects play at Cheney next year. Tacoma’s off today, but look for Leonys Martin in the line-up tomorrow as the R’s return home to face Reno. Martin’s supposed to get 7 IP, but with Donn Roach on the mound, I don’t know how busy he’ll be.
Jackson beat Pensacola 4-1, getting two runs in each of the first two innings and coasting to victory. Dylan Unsworth, one of SEVEN Generals named to the Southern League All Star team, pitched one scoreless IP before giving way to Kyle Hunter. We’ll have to see what’s going on there – no word on a promotion as yet. The Generals magic number to clinch the first-half title is now at 3 with 12 games left.
Bakersfield completed a 7-0 road trip and won their 8th in a row overall with a 7-3 win over San Jose. Tyler Pike wasn’t great, but pitched out of trouble, but the bullpen was solid behind him. Kyle Petty and Austin Wilson each had 3 hits for the Blaze. Bakersfield will have three representatives at the California League All Star game: 1B Kyle Petty, SP Tyler Herb and RP Kyle Schepel. The Blaze have a day off.
Clinton blanked Wisconsin 6-0, as Zack Littell dominated for 6 IP, striking out 8. Logan Taylor had 3 hits and a homer, while Dalton Kelly doubled and tripled for the Lumberkings. Art Warren starts for Clinton tonight.
2016 MLB Draft Preview with Chris Crawford
As Jay’s great post below mentions, the first round of the MLB amateur draft kicks off tomorrow, and unlike last year, the M’s actually have a first round pick. They pick first at #11, and then again with the 50th overall selection. If you’ve been reading this site for a while, you know that we always check in with draft expert and Baseball Prospectus prospect guy, Chris Crawford. This marks the fifth iteration of this draft Q and A post, meaning it has now earned adjectives like “venerable” and “traditional.” So if you’ve read JY’s piece, dive into the gravitas-laden 2016 Draft Preview.
If you’d like to do a deep dive on this draft class, check out MLB.com’s top 100 draft prospects, Baseball America’s Top 500, and of course Chris Crawford’s MLB Draft Guide e-book.
1: The M’s have three selections in the top 100, and an actual first-round pick, something they didn’t have last year. Set the context for us: is this an above-average draft class? Average-to-mediocre, but better than last year’s, or what?
I have said this in a few different interviews, but this draft class is frustrating. On paper, this class was one of my favorites in several years. Pretty much everything that could go wrong did, and it’s now one I’d say is a tick above-average, and maybe that’s just me being an optimist. We’ve seen worse classes this century, but we’ve certainly seen better.
2: Who should the M’s take at #11? Who WILL they take?
The latter question might actually be easier to answer than the former, and that has to do with the frustrating nature of the class. The Mariners are going to take a college player unless something nuts happens.They’re basically hoping one of the “”big” three college bats falls to them: Louisville’s Corey Ray, Tennessee’s Nick Senzel, and Mercer’s Kyle Lewis. The name that is the most likely to fall to them is Ray — not that I’m predicting it to happen — and if he is there, they should jump on it, I think he’s the best player in the class. Assuming those guys are gone, they’re looking at guys like Boston College right-hander Justin Dunn, and Miami catcher/first baseman Zack Collins.
3: This year’s class seems quite rich in pitching, with both the college and HS ranks supplying a lot of high-ceiling arms. If you were the GM, would you go with Florida’s AJ Puk with the first pick, or go for one of the HS arms like Riley Pint or Jason Groome?
Well, it has some high upside prep arms for sure, but the college arms I’m not so sold on. Jason Groome has a ton of upside. He flashes two plus-plus pitches and shows a pretty good change, too. Riley Pint touches 100 right now, and he shows a pretty good change for good measure. The college arms are pretty mediocre, in my humble estimation. The best of them is Puk, and when everything is clicking he shows a 70 fastball and 60 slider. The results are middling, however, and he has had back issues, which always scares me. Philly is going to take Puk it looks like and it’s not the worst top pick, but it’s not what I would do.
4: A year ago, you mentioned that all of the showcases mean fewer impact position players will hit college, tilting the balance (eventually) towards the HS ranks. Do you think the HS bats are better than this year’s college crop?
I think it’s pretty close, but only because of guys like Senzel Puk and Ray, which have sort of become an anomaly. My favorite prep bat is Blake Rutherford, an outfielder who could have three plus tools in his hit, speed and power. Mickey Moniak isn’t far behind, he’s ahead by most because he’s more likely to stay in center, and he’s also a year younger than Rutherford. There’s also Delvin Perez, who is my favorite prep position player in the class. There are serious concerns about his makeup and whether he can stay at shortstop, but he’s one of the few future stars in this class in terms of ceiling.
5: Do you look back at how a draft class does after a few years in pro ball and compare it to what you saw going into the draft?
Yes, but no. I look back more as a “curiosity” thing, but I don’t look back and look at how I did in terms of rankings/what guys did/didn’t work out. I am a firm believer in process (a term many baseball fans have grown to hate but it’s a good one, darn it), and that’s what I go by. Some guys work out, some don’t, but I can only look at the process of a draft class. But I always look back just to compare and contrast.
6: One interesting trend, if you could call it that, has been the resurgence in talent coming from Puerto Rico. The M’s Edwin Diaz was drafted out of PR a few years ago, and that Correa person went 1-1 a few years back. This year, Delvin Perez could be in the mix at #11, if he’s not gone by then. The year the M’s got Diaz (and Kristian Brito) out of PR, there was a lot of talk about the draft killing baseball in Puerto Rico. What’s changed? Is this influx of talent just luck? Something different in secondary schools/instruction there? Or is MLB doing something different?
Some of it is instruction. These baseball academies are doing a much better job of preparing these guys as prospects. Some of it is also cyclical — there just wasn’t a ton of elite talent coming out of that area for a little while, but for the most part, I think the instruction has played the biggest factor.
7: We talk about it every year, but what do you think will happen to the draft process in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement? Neither the owners or players association has much of an incentive to change the system, given that it seems to be restricting bonuses; the primary group who’s upset about it are the agents…the people who aren’t technically supposed to be involved with these amateur players. That said, I can imagine both sides might want some tweaks. What do you think each side might want to see change?
I think it’s gonna stay pretty similar, and that’s really disappointing. This system is terrible, it hurts the players, it hurts the teams that are trying to get better, and it barely rewards those who lose players. It’s also saving the owners a ton of money, so I think it’s here to stay. One tweak might be to give more funds in the allocation pool, but I don’t think that’s a lock. It’s all very silly.
8: The M’s also pick at #50. Who might be available in that neighborhood? Would you say this class is deeper than previous classes? Does that matter past the first round? That is, is a “deep” class just one with 20-30 really good picks, as opposed to 5-10, or do you see it ripple down the line, with the 30-50 picks notably better in some class than another?
It’s tough to say who will be available at 11, much less 50, but the good news for the Mariners is one of the strengths of this class is the quantity of good — not great — players. The guy who gets taken at 25 isn’t going to be too much better than the guy who gets taken with the 50th pick, which is nice for Seattle. Assuming they go college with that first pick, you could be looking at a prep arm at pick 50 One of my favorites who could be available in that range is Ryan Rollison, a prep out of Jackson, Tennessee who shows two plus pitches in his fastball and curve, with a solid change for good measure. Another that could make sense is Reggie Lawson, a right-hander out of California who has seen his stock slip, but was a first-round “lock” before the season started and has big stuff when things are clicking.
9: I know you think the M’s were a little hasty in pulling Alex Jackson out of the MWL last year and back to instructs. This year, he’s hitting for pop, but is off to a 6 for 52 start. What’s the deal with a guy that everyone thought would hit? Is this just growing pains, or is the hit tool maybe a bit behind expectations? Related to that, do you think catching in HS delays a hitter’s bat? Like, if you had 2 kids with the exact same hitting ability at age 13 and the ability to play a few different positions, would the one who played OF be ahead of the one who caught at age 18?
So far, Alex Jackson is one of the worst misses of my “career.” I saw a plus hit and power tool in high school. He’s been nowhere close to that as a professional, even with the power he’s shown since his promotion. And your second question may be why. I wouldn’t let my kid catch. It’s terrible for the knees, and because you have to work so hard on the defensive end, it can’t help but hurt you offensively. That may seem like an easy excuse for why Jackson has struggled, but it certainly could have played a factor, that and his plate discipline going backwards.
10: The local pickings seem pretty slim, Chris. About the only guy many are talking about is Federal Way HS 1B Christian Jones. What do you think of Jones, and who else is out there from Washington/Oregon/British Columbia?
They are slim pickings. Jones is interesting. He’s got some power from the left side, but most think he’s gonna end up at first base, and that limits the value. Ian Hamilton of Washington State really saw his stock drop, but when he was pitching out of the pen, he looked like one of the best relief pitchers in the class. I imagine a team will take him in the first five rounds hoping he shows that form again. Bellingham’s Austin Shenton was also a potential top three round guys coming into the year, but his stock has slipped substantially.
In Oregon, we have Matt Krook, who has taken the biggest stock hit of any pitcher not named Alec Hanson. The best prospect in the state is now probably Oregon State’s Logan Ice, a catch with three average tools and who should stick behind the plate. British Colombia has Curtis Taylor, a right-hander with two above-average pitches in his fastball and slider, That’s pretty much it for the PNW. Not great.
11: Let’s talk about some of the college bats this year. How do they rate against the last few draft classes? Any Alex Bregmans in this class?
I really like Corey Ray, as you can probably tell from above. I think he’s going to be a guy who hits for average and enough power, and his plus speed along with outstanding instincts makes him a real threat on the bases. I like Lewis, too, he’s got more power than Ray, but he also has more swing and miss and I worry about small school guys with that kind of profile. Nick Senzel is a third baseman who can flat out rake, but doesn’t have the prototypical power you see from a third baseman. Think Kyle Seager with slightly less pop. These are all very good collegiate bats who all go in the top six probably, but I don’t think there’s an Alex Bregman or Dansby Swanson here. Mayyyybe Ray.
12: This draft seems laden with HS arms. Who’s the best of this year’s group who might be there at #11? Pint/Groome won’t be, but in the group including Matt Manning, Forrest Whitley, Kyle Muller and Ian Anderson, who do you think’s got the best balance of upside and risk?
I’d be stunned if the Mariners took a prep unless Groome or Pint someone how slid there, but there are some good prep pitchers who could make sense if they go BPA. Braxton Garrett is that next guy for me, a left-hander who has shown three plus pitches and a delivery thats easy to fall in love with. Anderson, Manning and Whitley are all fairly similar, but Manning has more upside than either, so I think he’s slightly ahead of Whitley and Anderson. It’s not a great class of prep pitching, but there are guys here to like/be satisfied with if Seattle goes that route.
Thanks to Chris for doing this once again. Ask Chris more questions in today’s BP draft chat, or hit him up on twitter, where’s he’s @CVCrawfordBP. Who do you think the M’s take? Who might fall? Where does injured Stanford hurler Cal Quantrill go? Should the M’s go for the, I don’t know, 3rd-4th best HS pitcher in a draft laden with HS pitchers, or get the 2nd best college bat in a down year for college bats?
So You Still Want Me to Write About the 2016 Draft
What are YOU doing here?
(groans)
Well, as long as you’re here, what’s up with the 2016 draft?
It’s still far less rewarding than entering the Thunderdome for most.
Okay, smart-ass, be serious.
The baseball community hasn’t been actively talking shit about the draft this year, which seems positive by omission. The draft lacks the star power up top that other recent drafts have had, but then since we aren’t picking until eleven and there’s no consensus, it’s not likely to be a bad thing. What we’ve been seeing is that the college ranks aren’t as loaded as they have been in recent years. This is strange insofar as one of the major selling points of establishing pools and punishments for overage was that it would improve the quality of college baseball and attract attention to it (pause for laughter). Instead, this year has shown the emergence of various compelling HS prospects and it’s generally thought that teams will pursue those, provided that they’re signable. I don’t remember too many prospects explicitly stating an ironclad college commitment (which isn’t always ironclad), but even so, one would imagine that the level of depth is such that teams might try to prioritize HS first and then build out from the available college ranks from there.
When is this happening?
For a longer period of time than is preferable.
Use your words.
(groans again) Day one is Thursday and we’re starting up at four pm Pacific with rounds one and two. Three through ten will kick off on Friday at 10 am Pacific and then we get the more traditional phone call and potential visits with Tommy LaSorda from rounds eleven to forty starting at 9 am on Saturday.
What picks do we have?
#11 (1st,) #50 (2nd), then #87 (3rd) and intervals of thirty thereafter. No compensation round picks this year.
Read more
Game 58, Indians at Mariners
Wade Miley vs. Cody Anderson, 7:10pm
Let’s be clear: last night’s loss hurt. As Texas walked off Houston, the M’s fell a season-high 4 games behind the division leading Rangers, AND they’ve fallen further behind Cleveland in a hypothetical wild card race. The M’s have to keep their eye on a number of teams, and four-game losing streaks have a way of negatively impacting all sorts of potential races.
All that said and acknowledged, hooooly smokes, that was an encouraging game. James Paxton has somehow cloned Noah Syndergaard’s right arm and attached it to his own left side. That’s the only explanation I have for this. James Paxton, the frustratingly inconsistent, injury plagued 27 year old, now throws as hard as Noah Syndergaard, the fireballer that throws faster – by a mile – than any other starter in the game. I keep trying to come up with some sort of precedent for this, and I just can’t. The past few years have taught us a lot about how velocity aging curves aren’t set in stone, and that even veteran hurlers can suddenly add velocity. But essentially all of those cases are guys going from 90-92, or 91-93, touching 95. Paxton was already at the far tail end of the velocity distribution (especially for lefties), and, well, James Paxton’s fastball last night averaged *99mph* and touched 101. 101! From a lefty starter! There are no precedents for this, because lefty starters don’t throw 101. You can’t look at their background or evolution, because they do not exist. Aroldis Chapman is a lefty and the hardest thrower in the game, but he’s a reliever who many thought *should* start. Chapman’s never started a big league game, and made only a handful of starts in the minors. But he *did* start a spring training game back in 2012 in Peoria against the Pads, so we can see what he’d be like as a starter. In that game in late March, Chapman threw 61 fastballs with an average velocity of 96.7mph. In last night’s game, Paxton threw 61 fastballs with an average velocity of 99.0, and a higher peak velocity than Chapman. Let that sink in. It hasn’t fully sink in to me yet.
The only analogs I can think of involve position players. JD Martinez adding over .100 points to his ISO and going from a slap hitting mediocrity to a power hitting force, but then, he was a power hitting slugger in the minors. Joey Bautista’s the poster child for this late transformation, but even there, he’d always shown power…he just lacked opportunity and a good hit tool. Then there are comeback stories, sort of like Mark Lowe’s last year, in which a guy who once threw 95 fades and bumps around in the low 90s for a few years before returning to his former strength. That’s nice and all, but even last year’s Mark Lowe wasn’t the kind of dominant force he looked like when he first came up with Seattle, and what we’re talking about with Paxton is jumping to an entirely different level of ability.
So why’s he still getting hit? That’s a good question, and one I’d like to look into as the season goes on. His new mechanics may give right-handers a longer look at the ball, but then again his velocity jump eats away at that. He’s still missing his location every once in a while, but I saw some good swings on very well located pitches too. Tough to say, at at this point, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts showing more platoon splits than he did as an over-the-top pitcher.
If Paxton wasn’t enough, Edwin Diaz followed him and made his own MLB debut. To say it was electric is again to understate things. Many people talked about how it reminded them of Mark Lowe’s debut. I thought about Rafael Soriano’s first two games in Seattle, when he hit 100 and struck out 6 in a combined 6 IP. Why? Because Diaz threw 7 fastballs *averaging* 99.53mph, topping 100 a few times, as in this strikeout. His slider was tight and induced perhaps the best swinging strike of the night. The M’s lost a game, but may have gained an elite set-up man.
Hats off to Trevor Bauer, though, who threw the best game I’ve seen from him. Even in solid starts in the past, and his duel with Tai Walker last year comes to mind, he’d be breezing along and then give up a hit or a walk and then a HR that just killed his chances at a win. Last night, TWO deep drives from Seth Smith were caught on the warning track, and that was the difference. Still, he had much better command than I’ve seen – walking one, for example – and his curve was elite. He also got out-of-zone swings…exactly what he hasn’t been able to do all year.
Today’s game is as much of a must win as you can get in early June. The M’s face Cody Anderson, who’s making the spot start as Danny Salazar’s shoulder is hurting. Anderson was demoted to AAA after stinking up the joint as a starter early in the year. He had good ERA thanks to an extremely low BABIP in 15 starts last year, but when his BABIP shot up, he’s been disastrous in 2016. He’s still not walking anyone, but he’s given up 10 HRs and 56 hits in total in just under 40 IP thus far. He’s been bad against everyone in 2016, but he’s still not shown an ability to get lefties out. In his career, they’re slugging .485 off of him, and remember, that includes his mostly successful 2015. This is kind of a surprise, as his best pitch may be his change-up. The only problem is, it’s been much more successful against right-handed hitters. He’s got a cutter that he throws mostly to righties, but he’ll throw the change to lefties and righties alike. His fastball’s 93-94 or so and has some solid armside run.
1: Aoki, CF
2: Smith, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, RF
5: Seager, 3B
6: Lee, 1B
7: Lind, DH
8: Marte, SS
9: Clevenger, C
SP: Miley
Tacoma dominated Las Vegas 9-1 last night, as Chris Taylor went 4-4 with a walk. Las Vegas is flipping the script today, leading Tacoma, er, 9-1, despite a HR from Mike Zunino. Today was Adrian Sampson’s first really bad start of the year.
Jackson lost to Pensacola last night as Reds prospect Amir Garrett was spectacular over 6 IP, giving up only an unearned run. Dylan Unsworth starts for the Generals tonight.
Bakersfield beat San Jose 8-5 behind homers from Joe DeCarlo (who’s now homered in 3 straight games) and Kyle Petty. Tyler Pike starts for the Blaze tonight, looking to build on a 12 K performance in his last game.
Zack Littell starts for Clinton in Wisconsin tonight.
Finally, the hitting star of the day is probably OF prospect Brayan Hernandez, who went 5-6 in the DSL M’s 15-1 win in the Dominican.
Game 57, Indians at Mariners
James Paxton vs. Trevor Bauer, 7:10pm
That Texas series was a serious blow. As Jeff detailed today at Fangraphs, the Rangers have overtaken the M’s as the playoff favorites in the AL West. Their ace starter is back, and many of the things that impeded them early on – Shawn Tolleson, Delino DeShields – have been demoted. They are by no means a juggernaut – their DH is expensive and suffering through a terrible year, and is now whining about his playing time. Their 1B has been nearly as bad. Their pitching staff has a terrible FIP thanks to a ton of HRs allowed. Still, they exposed some weaknesses on the M’s, and now we’ll see how Seattle responds.
One of the Rangers’ strengths this year has been their depth, and thus when Rougned Odor got suspended, they called up ex-top prospect Jurickson Profar, who’s been amazing. Profar’s play – and the, uh, needs at 1B – has essentially made it impossible for the Rangers to send him down again. It hasn’t happened yet, but I’d love to see James Paxton force the M’s hand with a couple of eye-popping starts. He had unreal velocity and stuff the other night, but zero command of it, and he paid the price with tons of hard contact. The new velo means he doesn’t need pinpoint command, just something better than what he showed in San Diego.
His opponent tonight is enigmatic right-hander Trevor Bauer. I’ve probably spent more words on Bauer than any non-M’s pitcher over the past few years – attention that his performance to date doesn’t seem to warrant. There’s something remarkable about his very public discussion of strategy, training, and study of the game that’s remarkable for fans (no need to have that information filtered through the press), and for sabermetric fans in particular. The fact that he came up throwing pretty much every pitch under the sun, like a nerdy American Yu Darvish, didn’t hurt, either (screwballs! Woo!!). Yet here we are, over 400 innings into his big league career, and he’s put up about 3 fWAR. So much of the promise he showed at UCLA and in the minors remains to be tapped, and you start to wonder why.
It’s certainly not due to any lack of effort on Bauer’s part. Whether working with Kyle Boddy at Driveline Baseball here in the northwest, or working with Ron Wolforth in Texas, and of course his own coaches with Cleveland, Bauer’s diligent about training and talking about his process. His work on “pitch tunneling” – or making sure different pitches look very similar at the point where a batter chooses to swing or not – is a great example, and we’ve now got data suggesting that being good at doing this leads to much better outcomes. He’s not just training for the hell of it, he’s got a (very good) plan, and he’s attempting to execute it. In fits and starts, it shows a hell of a lot of promise.
But it’s not working nearly enough, and I’m not quite sure why. 119 pitchers in baseball have thrown at least 50 innings this year. Of these, Bauer ranks 115th in o-swing%, or getting batters to swing at balls. By itself, that’s not a kiss of death – there are some decent pitchers in the 100-119 range. But they’ve all got some way to mitigate that deficiency. Steven Matz and Bartolo Colon just don’t throw balls to begin with. Same with Rich Hill, who gets batters looking with his curve, and has very low contact rates when batters DO swing. Steven Wright’s 119th and having a great year, but hey, the knuckle ball really is a different animal, and it can lead to plenty of whiffs on strikes. Aaron Sanchez gets a ton of ground balls. Bauer doesn’t really have these mitigating circumstances – he walks too many batters, so the fact that batters seem to recognize pitches that are going wide (even if “tunneled” correctly) is bad news. He’s not a big ground ball guy, so HRs have been an issue as well. There’s nothing weird about his BABIP, unlike, say Chris Tillman, so he’s giving up plenty of baserunners.
All he can do is keep tinkering, the way he’s always done. Last year, his slider was his primary breaking ball, with a rising four-seamer as his #1 fastball. In 2016, he’s basically thrown no sliders at all, replacing it with a cutter, and gone to his good curve a bit more. This year, he’s throwing his sinker more than his four-seam, which may be why his GB% is up substantially. He’s not afraid to throw it up in the zone, but its movement is different enough that it gives batters a different look. That’s great. But his ERA/FIP are both around 4.25, and that’s just not what the Indians expected when they acquired him, nor is it what Bauer would expect of himself. Through years of training, through years of honing, altering, and remixing his repertoire, there’s been remarkably little change in his results. He’s never had an ERA or FIP under 4.
1: Aoki, CF
2: Smith, LF
3: Cano, DH
4: Cruz, RF
5: Seager, 3B
6: Lind, 1B
7: Iannetta, C
8: Marte, SS
9: O’Malley, 2B
SP: Paxton
Welcome back, Ketel Marte! Leonys Martin’s eligible to be activated on the 10th, I believe, but it’ll be longer than that for King Felix. Fingers crossed.
Good pitching day in the minors, with Tacoma’s surprising Adrian Sampson starting in Vegas, and Tyler Herb in San Jose. Brett Ash and Jackson host Pensacola.
Andrew Moore was solid for Jackson yesterday, but benefited from some good offense in the Generals win over the Blue Wahoos. DJ Peterson led the way with 2 HRs. Joe DeCarlo also hit 2 dingers for Bakersfield, part of a 4 HR day for the Blaze, in a 7-5 win.
Game 56, Mariners at Rangers
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Derek Holland, 12:05
The M’s could really use a win here, having dropped the first two of the series and thus two games back of the first place Rangers. The M’s are still the division favorite according to Fangraphs, but it’s narrowing. The projected final standings show the M’s a game up on Texas, at 86-76, and thus the M’s have a lead in playoff odds. But as you can see from this chart, their lead has narrowed considerably in the past few days.
Today the M’s face Derek Holland, the veteran lefty who’ll be making his 11th start of the year, or one more than he made in his injury-plagued 2015. He’s always had sizable platoon splits, kind of like Martin Perez, thanks to a so-so change-up and better breaking stuff. It’s not only a pitch mix problem, either: his fastballs have been crushed by righties, while his sinker in particular has remained very effective against lefties. At this point in his career – and in his recovery from injury – Holland’s not missing many bats, so he’s trying to get by getting lazy fly balls and infield pop-ups. He’s been successful in inducing pop ups, and thus his FIP looks okay, but he’s had a tough time stranding runners, and his BABIP isn’t as low as you might assume given his batted ball profile.
Of course, nothing that Holland does matters if the M’s keep getting disastrous starts from their starters. Hisashi Iwakuma was decent in his last appearance, or at least as decent as a starter can be while giving up 4 dingers. In context, it was probably better than the line looks: the M’s scored a million runs, and Iwakuma needed to just throw strikes. But Arlington isn’t a place to just throw strikes and hope for the best, so he’ll need to be a bit sharper than he’s been in recent starts.
Iwakuma’s slider has never quite rounded into form, so this year he’s throwing more of the cutter he developed in 2014 and showed very occasionally last year. It’s thrown at 85-86, so very near his four-seam fastball’s speed, but has none of the armside run. Unfortunately, it too seems to be a work in progress, as batters have hit it fairly hard. We’ll see if it’s something he continues to go to, or if he’ll go back to his curve…or just stick to the splitter.
1: Aoki, CF
2: Gutierrez, DH
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, RF
5: Lee, 1B
6: Seager, 3B
7: Iannetta, C
8: Romero, LF
9: Sardinas, SS
SP: Iwakuma
Game 55, Mariners at Rangers
Nate Karns vs. Martin Perez, 6:05pm
No shame in dropping a road game to Yu Darvish, but the M’s need to grab some wins in series like this. M’s right-handed bats have been great against opposing left-handers, and Martin Perez is a southpaw. That said, they haven’t exactly punished lefty starters overall, because some of their lefties have struggled. Norichika Aoki, I’m looking at you. For a guy who’s shown reverse splits over his career, he’s getting destroyed by lefties in 2016. Hasn’t hurt the M’s thus far, but this sure feels like a good day to give him a day off (hey, looks like the M’s agree!).
Perez is a familiar foe to the M’s, having made 7 starts against them previously. He throws a fairly hard sinker around 93-94, and mixes in a number of four-seamers, too. He throws a firm change with very similar movement to his sinker – it comes in around 8-9mph slower, though. He’s got a slider and a curve that he throws about equally. Perez has struggled a bit in his career and this year in particular with righties, so he typically sees a righty-dominant line-up; tonight he’ll see another. More than most pitchers, Perez really struggles to miss bats against opposite-handed bats. Most everyone strikes out more same-handed hitters, but Perez has below average K rates specifically because he can’t whiff righties. This year, that inability to get Ks has been supplemented with a lot more walks; control problems were a sporadic problem for him in the minors. This hasn’t hurt him thus far, but his FIP’s well above his superficially solid ERA. “Beating” his FIP isn’t some repeated skill for him – he posted a much *worse* ERA than his FIP last year.
Nate Karns is an oddity in that, unlike Perez, he’s consistently struck out more *opposite* handed hitters. His career FIP, career K% and HR rate are all better against lefties than righties. The Rangers’ line-up is pretty well balanced, with 4 lefties in there today. Karns stands apart from his teammates too in that he’s actually been a bit sharper on the road. The M’s as a staff have a much, much better K:BB ratio at Safeco, but Karns’ has been better on the road. The M’s could seriously use a longer start after their starters have been battered around for the past week.
Speaking of which, the M’s just gave their beleaguered bullpen an upgrade, calling up top prospect Edwin Diaz. The righty will be available for tonight’s game, with Cody Martin heading back to Tacoma. A few weeks back, I mentioned my skepticism about the timing of his shift to the pen, but also that his two-pitch mix and deadly sinker could be valuable to the M’s at some point. While you don’t judge a move like this on the basis of a few weeks in AA, his transition to relief really couldn’t have gone any better. In 10 relief appearances, Diaz has tossed 11 2/3 IP, given up just one unearned run on just *3* hits and 2 walks while striking out 16. He’s done 2IP appearances, he’s made 4 out saves, he’s come in with men on base, and to start innings. He’s seen most situations he might encounter as a Mariner, and he’s essentially dominated in all of them. With velocity touching 98 repeatedly and a sweeping slider, he’s a tough match-up. Diaz seems to have seen more of a jump in velocity than many who make the shift. He’s added 3-4mph, ala Mike Montgomery, and clearly needs more of a challenge at this point than the Southern League can provide. I’ll be curious to see how Scott Servais uses him.
1: O’Malley, CF
2: Gutierrez, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Lee, 1B
6: Seager, 3B
7: Iannetta, C
8: Romero, LF
9: Sardinas, SS
SP: Karns
Tacoma wrapped up their homestand with an exciting 3-2 win in 10 innings. Trailing 2-0 going into the bottom of the 9th, the R’s struck for two runs, one on a Chris Taylor swinging bunt single, and the other on a Mike Zunino fielders choice. The Rainiers then walked it off in the 10th, when Patrick Kivlehan led off with a dinger. The R’s are in Las Vegas tonight, with recently called-up Sam Gaviglio starting.
Jackson keeps rolling too, winning 2-1 over Tennessee. Tyler O’Neill homered yet again – his 10th on the year. Speaking of guys who might need more challenges than the Southern League can provide, O’Neill has been remarkable on the season. Kyle Hunter got the start and pitched 5 solid innings, and the Generals pen did the rest. Special mention goes out to Emilio Pagan, who K’d 4 in 2 IP, and now has 35 Ks in 25 1/3 IP, and has successfully converted all 8 of his save opportunities. They’re trying to play tonight, but it’s raining in Tennessee at the moment. Ryan Yarbrough was scheduled to start.
Bakersfield beat Stockton 8-6, keeping A’s prospect Casey Meisner winless for 2016 and touching him for 7 runs in 4 2/3 IP. Tyler Marlette had his third two HR game since May 18th, getting Meisner in consecutive innings. The Blaze head to San Jose and a series with the Giants beginning tonight.
Clinton beat Beloit 4-2 thanks in large part to a 3-run first. Braden Bishop had three hits to pace the offense, and Nick Neidert turned in another good start, going 5 1/3 with only 1 run given up. He’s walked only 3 in his 15 2/3 of full-season ball experience. Nick Wells starts tonight’s game in Beloit.
The M’s Dominican Summer League team opens play today, too. The team’s three July 2nd signings from last year are all on the team – the troika of 17 year olds are SS Carlos Vargas, P Ivan Fortunato, and C Daniel Santos. OF Brayan Hernandez is probably the biggest prospect on the team; he was a notable July 2 signing in 2014 – BA had him as the 3rd ranked International prospect that year.
Game 54, Mariners at Rangers
Taijuan Walker vs. Yu Darvish, 5:05pm
Last night’s game almost – almost – makes up for what feels like thousands of agonizing 1-0 Felix losses and pointless, punchless 3-1 games that make you question why you’re even following at all. Given the stakes, the opponent and all of that, it can be surprisingly easy to hand-wave it away – the M’s made a miraculous comeback against a team whose owner calls them “miserable failures.” Given the nature of baseball, and the fact that the sheer number of games on the schedule makes *some* remarkable outcome almost a weekly or monthly occurrence, it’s tempting to downplay this. But it seemed like a sign, or at least, those of us who want to see something out of this franchise would like to take it as one, even if that sign is in an incomprehensible foreign language. The M’s big off-season pitching acquisition pitched, uh, poorly, and is teetering around replacement level, but the M’s can hit. Like, not “hit pretty well for a team at Safeco” and not, “MUCH better hitting team than they’ve been in the recent past,” but HIT without modifiers or caveats. I don’t know if that’s enough, but it’s remarkable. More than anything save perhaps Dae-ho Lee, it’s made this team’s game worth watching. If they go on to lose, at least they’ll do so differently.
Today, they head to Texas and a showdown with the team they share first place with. Making his second start since coming back from TJ surgery is Yu Darvish, one of the most unique and absurdly talented pitchers in the game. Pull up his repertoire on BrooksBaseball and you’ll find 8 separate pitches. Does he use each of them in every start? No, of course not, but sometimes I feel like that’s just because he runs out of time. The sheer variety makes him sound like a classic pitch-to-contact junkballer, or the tinkering by necessity when a pitcher finds his fastball keeps getting smashed. I see Lou Piniella in my mind, shaking his head at the thought of 5-6-7 pitches per game. But let’s be clear: Yu Darvish is not the Persian-Japanese Ryan Franklin.
Darvish’s fastball averaged 95-96 and touched 98 in his last start. But beyond velocity and arm speed, Darvish spins the ball like no pitcher I’ve ever seen. With his sweeping, plunging slider and hard, hellish sinker, Darvish’s pitches spanned a range of about 10″ in gloveside break to 12″ in armside run. His four-seam fastball has 10-11″ of vertical rise, and he’ll drop in a slow curve at 67mph with 14-15″ of drop. Given the sheer number of pitches, you keep expecting them to sort of bleed into one another – a four-seamer/sinker thing that doesn’t sink much, and doesn’t spin enough to get rise, or a hard curve and slider that are really two ends of a single spectrum. But somehow, Darvish keeps the edges clean – there’s separation and intent in each offering, and he’s somehow able to command them.
If I had to pick a favorite, it might be his slider, which has incredible two-plane break. No pitch moving that fast has any business moving that far to the gloveside AND down, and if it’s going to do THAT, then it really shouldn’t be thrown for a ball under 30% of the time. The only clear parallel among starters is Corey Kluber’s: pitches with hellish break that batters both can’t stop swinging at, and can’t do much when they contact it. It’s one reason why Darvish has been nearly unhittable against right-handed hitters in his career. Over 900+ PAs, righties are posting a sub-.600 OPS. Lefties aren’t exactly doing well, of course, but righties have been completely flummoxed.
The M’s have been lefty dominant as an offense in recent years, which may be why they’ve actually fared pretty well against Darvish. This year, they’re actually balanced, . Darvish will only throw 85-95 pitches tonight according to the Rangers, so having an actual bench is going to be useful.
1: Aoki, CF
2: Smith, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, RF
5: Seager, 3B
6: Lind, DH
7: Lee, 1B
8: Clevenger, C
9: Sardinas, SS
SP: Walker
The Rainiers beat Tim Lincecum’s Salt Lake Bees 5-1 last night, with Tacoma scoring 3 off of Lincecum in the first two innings. Mike Curto reports that Lincecum got into a groove after that, and made it through 5 innings with only the 3 R against him, and on only 88 pitches. Not bad for a guy who’s probably quite rusty after not throwing in a meaningful game since late June of 2015. Adrian Sampson outdueled the ex-Cy Young winner for the win. Donn Roach starts tonight at Cheney. I’d suggest going to the game given the weather and Seattle’s road trip, but it sounds like it’s sold out.
Jackson won their 8th consecutive game, 8-4 over Tennessee. Tyler O’Neill was 2-4 with a walk – not bad for the Southern League’s player of the month in May. Edwin Diaz pitched two scoreless with 2 Ks in relief. Kyle Hunter will make a spot start for Jackson today.
Bakersfield came back to beat Stockton 2-1 with single runs in the 7th and 8th innings. Tyler Pike struck out a career high 12 in only 5 IP for the Blaze. Today, Eddie Campbell takes the mound against A’s prospect Casey Meisner, who came over from the Mets in the Tyler Clippard trade last year. Meisner was ranked as the A’s 2nd best pitching prospect after Sean Manaea, who’s now in Oakland’s rotation, by MLB before the year, but he’s had something of a rough go. A lower K rate, a spike in walks, and lots of hard contact has Meisner sitting at 0-8 with a 4.09 ERA, but a 5.68 RA/9.
Clinton lost a tough one, 4-3 to Quad Cities. The Bandits got a run in the top of the 9th to take the win. Pablo Lopez, a 2013 international signing out of Venezuela, made his second start for Clinton and picked up the win.
Game 53, Mariners at Padres
Wade Miley vs. Colin Rea, 6:10pm
Well, last night’s game sure was something. There’s no way to sugar coat James Paxton’s results: he got hit hard, and giving up dingers in Petco prevents any attempt at crying BABIP: Paxton threw poorly located pitches and the Padres hit them hard. And yet it’s kind of hard to be too upset.
Paxton’s four seamer *averaged* 98 mph, according to MLBAM. He touched triple digits during a start in which he threw 100 pitches. His curveball’s movement was unrecognizable from the one he threw last year. Whereas his curve in September last year had essentially no horizontal movement and 2-3″ of drop compared to a ball without spin, this new pitch has actual gloveside break and drops a lot more despite having the same or even a bit more velocity. Much of the change in movement comes from a shift in his arm angle – instead of the old over-the-top Paxton, we saw a more traditional 3/4 delivery. That, of course, doesn’t explain the additional velocity, nor the increase in spin on his hook. It’s all a part of a package – a package which, at least last night, contained some wonderful, expensive gifts, but also contained a dead rat and twenty cigarette butts. Wait, what’s that? You just read this article? Sullivan, huh? Damn it.
I don’t want to get carried away and say that the good things we saw (100mph velocity, better curve) are somehow “real” while the serious command problems were the transitory byproducts of a serious mechanical change. But, like, that would be nice, wouldn’t it?
Today the M’s face Colin Rea, a right-hander with a 92-93mph four-seam and sinker with essentially average movement. His primary breaking ball is a cutter at 88mph, but he also throws a fairly firm curveball that gets good downward break. The curve and change-up get a lot of ground balls, which help keep his overall GB rates around average. Rea’s claim to fame in his brief MLB career was his start against the Mets in early May in which he went 8+ innings, giving up just 1 run, and taking a no-hitter into the 8th. That success wouldn’t last, as Rea was optioned to AAA El Paso just a few weeks after that start against New York, and he’s just been recalled to make this start. Rea isn’t an overpowering guy, as his K rates are fairly average, and he walks a bit more than you’d like from someone who doesn’t miss that many bats; his walk rate is 10% this year, and some control issues led to a series of short starts just before his demotion.
1: Aoki, CF
2: Smith, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, RF
5: Seager, 3B
6: Lind, 1B
7: Iannetta, C
8: Sardinas, SS
9: Miley, SP
The big news in the minors tonight is that Tim Lincecum’s making the start for Salt Lake tonight in Tacoma. Lincecum last pitched in Tacoma in 2007, in what is still probably the most electric, most jaw-dropping performance I’ve ever seen live. Tonight will likely *not* be a repeat of that; I don’t think Lincecum will sit 98 with his fastball tonight, but it’s still going to be interesting to see where he’s at. I want to pull for him, as he’s one of the most unique pitchers in recent memory AND a local success story, but…did you have to sign with the Angels?
Here’s a quick check on how the M’s affiliates have done on the year:
Tacoma: 31-21, run differential: +49
Jackson: 34-18, +42
Bakersfield: 24-28, +13
Clinton: 28-24, 0
Cumulative record: 117-91
Cumulative run differential: +104
Game 52, Mariners at Padres
James Paxton vs. Christian Friedrich, 7:10pm
What is normally a celebration is now a day of reflection and somber determination. Our great King has been sent to the 15-dal DL, retroactive to May 28th, with a calf strain. That’s…let’s be clear, that’s a good limb for a pitcher to injure, assuming (as seems to be the case) that a pitcher must injure something. Now is not the time for histrionics and wailing. Our King would want us to soldier on. But clearly, we can’t do what we normally do, not just because Felix isn’t pitching, but because Felix was injured in the very ACT of celebrating. Celebrations themselves seem suspect right now. Time for Marshawn Lynch-style handshakes for the next few HR celebrati..er, I mean, observations.
The M’s announced Paxton was coming up last night, which made for a very uncomfortable evening of trying to tell myself that the move wasn’t about Felix, even though it was pretty obvious from the timing that the move had everything to do with him. Paxton’s been solid in AAA overall, but his line is the product of some serious peaks and valleys. He’s given up more runs than innings pitched in three of his 10 starts on the year, but in the other 7, he’s given up a TOTAL of 3 earned runs. Adding in unearned runs brings it up to 6, but that’s still less than a run per start. His K:BB ratio are better now than they’ve ever been at the level, and he’d have a brilliant FIP if it wasn’t for some HR problems: his HR/9 is a career high, setting aside a weird 12-inning stint in 2014. He’s striking out more than a batter per inning for Tacoma, a bit more than he did in his last extended AAA time in 2013, but the biggest improvement has come in his control.
One of the many things that’s always confused me about Paxton is the fact that he’s displayed even or reverse platoon splits at the big league level. Seriously, take a look: the very few lefties to face him have hit a combined .314/.403/.419, while righties hit .206/.276/.321. FIP sees through the huge BABIP issues with the lefties, but still shows him with essentially even splits. In the minors, however, Paxton’s shown sizable splits, and that’s continued this year, where lefties hit just .136 off of him, while 5 of his 6 HRs have come against righties. I’m assuming the Pads will stack their line-up with righties, so here’s hoping his BABIP devil magic against MLB right-handers continues.
Christian Friedrich is someone I’ve always kept an eye on after seeing an impressive start against Tacoma on his way to the majors in the Rockies org. Unfortunately, injuries and altitude torpedoed his career. After being waived by Colorado this spring, he signed on with the Angels – a team that could seriously use some pitching depth right now. After a physical, they decided not to take him, and he was sent back to Colorado, who then waived him. I mentioned he was pitching in the Cal League for the Padres org back in April, and, well, here he is, pitching for the big club. He’s made three starts for them thus far, and he’s coming off a real gem: 7 shutout innings giving up just 3 hits and a walk, while striking out 5 D-Backs. He had serious control problems in his first two starts, but he hasn’t paid a high price for it, in part because he hasn’t given up a dinger yet. He’s getting more grounders than he did in Colorado, which is interesting because he has a very, very similar release point and throwing motion to Paxton. Both are lefties who release their fastball about 7′ above the ground, and generate the kind of backspin you’d expect from such over-the-top deliveries. It’s interesting, then, that their *other* pitches look nothing alike. Paxton’s curve is much firmer, and thus has a bit less vertical drop than Friedrich’s. Friedrich’s cutter has strong vertical drop, especially compared to his fastball and change, while Paxton’s is more of a horizontal breaking pitch.
1: Aoki, LF
2: Gutierrez, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, RF
5: Lee, 1B
6: Seager, 3B
7: Iannetta, C
8: Sardiñas, SS
9: Paxton, SP
Abbreviated MiLB news today, but wanted to point out that Patrick Kivlehan rejoined Tacoma today in time for their day game against Salt Lake. Kivlehan had 3 hits in the game, and lead off man Ketel Marte had 2 – both players doubled. Tacoma won 5-1 behind a solid start by Brad Mills.
Kivlehan was the player to be named later in the Leonys Martin/Tom Wilhelmsen trade this winter, but he struggled mightily with Round Rock, hitting .184/.252/.262. Texas then offered him back to Seattle, and so he’s back with the team he played for last year.