Game 123, Brewers at Mariners

marc w · August 21, 2016 at 11:37 am · Filed Under Mariners 

Ariel Miranda vs. Matt Garza, 1:10pm

The M’s closed to within a game of the 2nd wild card by beating the hapless Brewers yesterday, and they go for a sweep today behind Ariel Miranda. I mentioned before that Miranda reminds me of ex-Mariner lefty Roenis Elias, but the parallels are adding up. Elias may have more swing and miss in his game (though neither are ever going to be high K pitchers), but they have two of the *least* consistent release points in the game. With the M’s, Elias was famous for having very different release points for righties and lefties, and then he’d alter it more when facing left-handed bats:
elias release2

Miranda doesn’t do that, but his release point varies by nearly *two feet* from pitch to pitch. This probably makes some pitching coaches cringe, but if a pitcher can command it, it’d give each of his pitches a very different look. When the M’s acquired him, I noted that he had really odd movement on his fastball, with the high vertical movement that you might get throwing straight over the top, and the high horizontal movement you’d get throwing low 3/4. I don’t think Miranda’s altering his *vertical* release point all that much, but changing his position on the rubber and changing his horizontal release point might give him different angles on his fastball and may make it tougher to hit.
Here’s Miranda’s release points in his last start – note the smear of pitches stretching from right about 0 all the way to 2′.
miranda release

At least, that’s the theory. It’s too soon to say much, but he hasn’t shown an ability to limit BABIP, walks or hard contact. Given his raw stuff, I’m not sure Miranda will ever be more than a back of the rotation starter (like Elias), but I kind of like that there’s something odd about his game. It’s just kind of strange that the M’s sent Elias away, seemingly as a throw in, and then found someone similar on another team’s scrap heap.

Soooo, Felix. Last night’s game provides the best evidence both that Felix is back to being a top of the rotation starter, and that Felix’s ability to make adjustments is still just about unparalleled. Every time he hits a rough patch, and to be honest, they’re coming more frequently now, he’s able to snap out of it. He’s at an age where it’s not enough to assume it’s regression (although that’s certainly playing a part, too); he’s got to do something differently. In his last few games, he’s actually striking people out – something he wasn’t doing before his injury – and he’s throwing his change a lot more. In addition, the change is moving a bit differently than it did earlier, with a bit less sinker-like run. A good version of Felix makes me much, much more optimistic about this playoff chase.

1: Aoki, LF
2: Smith, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Lind, 1B
7: Iannetta, C
8: Martin, CF
9: Marte, SS
SP: Miranda


26 Responses to “Game 123, Brewers at Mariners”

  1. Notfromboise on August 21st, 2016 12:13 pm

    Rangers and Red Sox both down big in the late innings, it’s a good day to make up some ground.

    Hoping they knock Garza out early so Zunino can get into the game. 🙂

  2. Notfromboise on August 21st, 2016 2:13 pm

    3 runs across and Miranda has faced the minimum through 3 innings. The entire bullpen is rested, Rangers and Sox have both lost. This day looks promising.

  3. Grayfox3d on August 21st, 2016 3:00 pm

    I’m really trying to keep my excitement levels to a minimum, i have the biggest fear of being disapointed. If we do make the playoffs, even as a wild card then I will go crazy, but right now im just living in the moment…. its been soooooo long and I needs it!

  4. Grayfox3d on August 21st, 2016 3:13 pm

    Ok… need to score some extra runs here, Vincent is up in the bullpen.

  5. Grayfox3d on August 21st, 2016 3:55 pm


  6. californiamariner on August 21st, 2016 3:55 pm


  7. Grayfox3d on August 21st, 2016 3:58 pm

    5 run lead… just gone because guys cant stop giving up home runs! This win is almost a necessity, and this is part of why I can’t invest my self because the Mariners have this habit of throwing away winnable games, they did it against the Angels, and today against the Brewers. C’mon!

  8. Grayfox3d on August 21st, 2016 3:58 pm

    Invest my self as far as making the playoffs… Guess i should clarify that.

  9. djw on August 21st, 2016 4:01 pm

    I am pleased that TW has been respectable-to-actually-good in his return to the Mariners, but I can’t really grok throwing him back in the closer role

  10. Grayfox3d on August 21st, 2016 4:01 pm

    Bullpen usage is a disaster…. c’mon.

  11. Grayfox3d on August 21st, 2016 4:03 pm

    haha what a joke.

  12. stevemotivateir on August 21st, 2016 4:03 pm

    Martin heeling that fly ball to center didn’t help. It’s crazy how many times we’ve seen sloppiness at the worst times.

  13. Grayfox3d on August 21st, 2016 4:04 pm

    Great Play by Aoki! good play on that ball man… glad your stellar defense is really shining out there.

  14. JMB on August 21st, 2016 4:04 pm


  15. Grayfox3d on August 21st, 2016 4:07 pm

    All the other teams did what they were supposed to do today so far, Balt is down to Houston, if they lose and mariners win that puts them in that WC spot… instead..this happens.

  16. stevemotivateir on August 21st, 2016 4:08 pm

    Two mistakes by Aoki on one play. Shitty route and responsibility, followed by a shitty throw that missed the cutoff man, which may mean the game.

  17. mrakbaseball on August 21st, 2016 4:11 pm

    Aoki has hit better since he returned from Triple-A, but he is so awkward in the outfield. Painful to watch.

  18. stevemotivateir on August 21st, 2016 4:11 pm

    Nice. The Brewers give them a freebie and the M’s refuse it. How did they not get the runner there?

  19. Grayfox3d on August 21st, 2016 4:14 pm

    The Mariners would be so much better if they had a real outfield, but they have 1 center fielder and like 5 guys who play left/right…need to get some stability there in the future.

  20. JMB on August 21st, 2016 4:16 pm

    Awkward in the OF and a terrible baserunner to boot.

  21. Grayfox3d on August 21st, 2016 4:21 pm

    Tell me why he doesnt lay down a bunt in that situation?

  22. JMB on August 21st, 2016 4:25 pm


  23. Grayfox3d on August 21st, 2016 4:26 pm

    This game is exactly the reason we can’t have nice things… thats 3 games in the past week that should of been won if not for our “strong” bullpen, and shotty ass defense…

  24. Westside guy on August 21st, 2016 4:48 pm

    Wow, glad I missed this one…

  25. mksh21 on August 21st, 2016 5:09 pm

    Very late to the party, not mad they lost because it’s been a great stretch, but what’s up with Diaz not pitching, he getting a rest/hurt I assume?

    I’m HOPING it wasn’t due to the lead being lost before a “true” save situation presented itself.

  26. Notfromboise on August 22nd, 2016 12:06 am

    Sky ain’t falling. 9 games over .500… within a game of the wild card. Hitting consistently for the first time in maybe a decade. Perhaps an heir apparent in Diaz for the closer role.

    Plenty of good. We’ve won something filthy like 12 of the last 15.. We might even have more than 2 legit starting pitchers by the time we face a .500 or better club.. It’s ok to be a mariner.

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