Game 3: Mariners at Astros (And Iwakuma’s Performance Yesterday)
James Paxton vs. Charlie Morton, 5:10pm
This isn’t the *best* match-up of the season’s opening series, but I think it’s the one that fans of both teams are most curious about. James Paxton’s transformation last year from frustrating, frequenty-injured enigma to fireballing potential ace was thrilling, but it didn’t erase the question marks surrounding his future – it merely expanded the range of possibilities. Peak Paxton looked a hell of a lot better, if you can get past the health issues or his own historic issues maintaining velocity. On the Houston side, Charlie Morton had been a reliably boring, pitch-to-contact groundball maven, but he had a brilliant month with Philadelphia as a strikeout pitcher throwing much harder than he ever had before.
Both of these pitchers showed flashes of previously untapped, undreamed-of levels of performance last year. Neither pitched a full season in the bigs – Paxton because he didn’t make the team initially, and Morton because of a hamstring injury. But both attracted attention by gaining velocity -a LOT of velocity – well beyond the age that pitchers generally begin LOSING velocity. Both have a lot to prove. Morton looked like a completely different pitcher…but for a single month. Paxton looked excellent for longer, but his club needs him much more; Paxton falling back into decent-but-not-great form of 2016 would be a major blow to the M’s playoff hopes, while the Astros would still have McCullers/Keuchel/McHugh/etc. to lean on if Morton goes back to being regular-Charlie-Morton. The range of outcomes for these pitchers is perhaps wider than all but a handful of uber-talented rookies, and that makes the match-up a great one to watch.
Morton threw a 95 MPH swerving sinker last year, but in previous years it was more like 92-93. His change-up is a good split-grip pitch with drop and a ton of armside run thrown around 86 MPH, and his primary breaking ball’s a curve. Last year, though, he brought back an old pitch he’d thrown only sporadically since about 2011-12: a cutter. With the uptick in velo, his new cutter averaged 90 MPH and generated plenty of swinging strikes. As a sinkerball righty, Morton’s big problem in Pittsburgh was his inability to deal with lefties (in his career, lefties have hit .301/.392/.466 against him). In his excellent month last year, he’d narrowed (but not eliminated) his platoon splits, and the cutter may have helped him accomplish this. To be fair: the big change in his platoon split results came on his sinker, against which the league slugged just .308. Everything you can say about Morton’s 2016 comes with the huge caveat that it was only a month, and thus no one really knows what to make of him now.
1: Segura, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Zunino, C
8: Dyson, LF
9: Martin, CF
SP: Paxton
Soooo, let’s talk Hisashi Iwakuma. His final start of the spring was, let’s just say, not encouraging. His first start of the regular season produced a quality start, and a part of me thinks we should just leave it at that. But the Iwakuma we saw last night looked a whole lot like the Iwakuma of the spring, and from a pitch mix standpoint, nothing like we’ve seen from Iwakuma in the past. Those close to the team argue, with some justification, that Iwakuma’s fastball is roughly the same as it was last year, which itself was down a bit from his previous averages. Pull up his BrooksBaseball card, and you’ll see that his four-seam fastball was 88.6 MPH last year and 87.3 MPH last night – a drop, but not the end of the world. The problem is that Iwakuma’s now throwing a ton of pitches in the low-80s and even high-70s, and Pitch FX isn’t really sure what to call them. Statcast thinks he threw 2 four-seam fastballs last night, while Brooks thinks it was 8. Both agree that they were in the 87 MPH range. Both think he threw 8-9 sinkers at about 86. From there, though, it’s less clear. Statcast thinks he threw 17 cutters around 81 MPH, or 20 cutters+sliders all in the 80 MPH range. Brooks thinks he threw 20 sliders, by far the most of any pitch type, and just 2 cutters at 84 or so. The issues are magnified by the fact that pitch fx data seems to be missing for several innings, so the total pitch numbers don’t match.
But if you think that Iwakuma’s fastball is down “only” 2 MPH, then you also must believe that he’s all but given up on it, and now pitches backwards from his slider/cutter – something no Mariner fan would ever have picked out as the pitch he needs to feature more often. If that’s accurate, then Iwakuma is substituting his subpar fastball with breaking balls at a rate roughly double anything we’ve ever seen from him. He threw about 1/2 breaking balls last night, if you include those slow cutters. If you believe that’s he’s using his cutter as a fastball, or that he’s only able to touch 87 very occasionally by reaching for a bit extra, then the problem’s a bit different. In that case, he’s now the Japanese Jamie Moyer and will have to ensure his command’s perfect. Last night, despite the walks, he essentially did that. Either way, Iwakuma threw the vast majority of his tracked pitches last night between 79-82. He’s never done that in a big league game. Whether it was strategy or capability, we’re still not quite sure.
Either way (“he’s just pitching backwards!” or “Yes, he throws 84 rather often now, but he can get away with it!”), it’s concerning because it’s such a break from his previous approach. Iwakuma’s savvy enough to adjust his approach and rely on his control/command to give himself a chance to succeed, but he’s simply never needed to make adjustments of this magnitude before. That’s tough for any pitcher, and while command can help, doing this consistently is going to be a challenge.
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Okay, I’m watching this one. Let’s get a win, Mariners!
Paxton has looked good so far, in my opinion. But man, Houston’s quality starting pitching is disheartening for a fan who sees the Mariner’s short-term window closing soon.
Crappy at bat by Seager. The old one pitch pop-up sit down. Missed it by “that much!”
it sure would be nice if Cruz and Cano could figure out how to hit in 2017….. ugh.
Valencia takes an almost middle/middle pitch for strike 3 with a 3-2 count and the runner in motion … in a game tied 2-2 in the 8th inning.
That was spectacular!
Control the Zone, baby.
I really don’t wanna start the season 0-3…. that’s gonna make me go crazy! this team can ill afford to have a bad start especially with all these expectations.
Mike Zunino is still a work in progress at the plate. But at least he wasn’t flailing at pitches in the other batter’s box.
Ugh. A bad throw combined with a not-that-skilled first baseman.
The best we can do is Haniger and Valencia? It’s going to be a long year.
Come on, Robbie, earn that 24 million…
Nellie was safe.
Crap.
Nick Vincent strikes again! I really dislike him and have since last season….
This game.
Do it Nellie!
Come on, Kyle, remember – everybody says Cory is better than you. PROVE THEM WRONG!
C’mon kyle…..
YEAH! A LEAD!
Please give me more runs!!!!!!!
Dyson! Vacuum up some more runs!
I know that was really bad, but I couldn’t help myself…
What a terrible inning… got 1 run off no hits, typical Mariners.
This is totally random, but I was browsing Cot’s Contracts during the commercial break. In 2018, 2019, and 2020, Mike Trout will make 34 million a year. An absurd amount of money.
And the odds are… he will be worth it. There’s even a chance he will be a bargain.
Aoki???? Really?
Hey, Nori, why weren’t you doing that last spring?
Darn
That sums it up pretty well.
Yep. Why not. Long year. You can’t win a championship in April, but you can lose it.
CRAP ON A CRAP CRACKER.
oh yay, terrific! what a great start to this season! hey Dipoto, thanks for the new guy you just had to have!
This game was like a microcosm of the last 16 years of Mariners baseball.
On the good side, it’s not really possible to lose 162 soul-crushing games in a row, so I suppose there will be better days.
Denis, you might underestimate this Mariners team my friend.
It’s only three games – I realize that. But averaging just 1 run per nine-inning-game is bringing back some bad memories.
It’s just three games. It’s just three games. It’s just…
Such great start to the season by the starting pitchers…. piss poor effort by the offense. The slogan should be “new faces, same Mariners”… give me something realistic front office, not this hype me up bull crap.
Grayfox, go sit down. Better yet, go find another team to root for. Rooting for the “same old Mariners” but expecting different results just makes you look crazy.
On another note, I think what this series might have shown is just how fricken good Houston might be. M’s missed some opportunities, but they pretty much just got beat.
I can’t just go root for another team, I get caught up in the moment and say crazy things, I over react to everything that’s just me. Do you think everyone who say’s “same old Mariners” should root for another team?
I just really hate to lose a very winnable game, the missed opportunities are killers in this game, and 1 base hit could be the difference.
Also that Springer Homerun was estimated at 353 feet… not a homerun in any other ballpark so theres that bright spot.