2017 M’s Minor League Preview
What a difference a year makes. It’s difficult to overstate just how thoroughly the M’s full-season affiliates struggled in 2015, and while the new front office talked a good game regarding player development, they had an awful lot of work to do. Last year, every single M’s affiliate made the playoffs, from AAA down to the DSL. The M’s led all of baseball in minor league winning percentage, and while that’s not at all the same thing as having a deep/talented system, it was a sign that the coaches they brought in got much, much more out of many of the same players that were around for the abysmal year of 2015.
Many of the M’s top prospects exemplify this: Tyler O’Neill cut his strikeout rate on his way to a league MVP. Andrew Moore showed he was more than a college command/control guy and succeeded in the high minors. Nick Neidert made the leap from the Arizona League to full-season ball with aplomb.
Coaching and development played a role, but another factor helped the M’s affiliates post such a gaudy W/L record: the M’s brought in plenty of minor league vets to fit around their home-grown players, and many of them made important contributions. In general, those players don’t stick around, so guys like Bengie Gonzales (AA) or Kyle Schepel (A+/AA) have moved on, but the M’s have a new crop of MiLB and independent league vets this year. At AA and especially AAA, doing this is standard operating procedure, but the scale of it seems much greater under Dipoto; part of this is the volume of minor trades that hollowed out some of the system’s depth in the low minors, but part of it is simply a different philosophy to Zduriencik or especially Bavasi, who was content to see prospects (and teams) struggle if he thought it was best for player development.
After such a successful 2016, what will they do for an encore? After another offseason full of trades involving the minors, I’m looking for development at the individual player level and to see who steps forward and grabs a place in the M’s top 20-30 prospect lists. I’m looking to see if Tacoma pitching coach Lance Painter can work his magic on one of the R’s starters the way he did with James Paxton last year. As far as specific players go, I’m hoping that the M’s can resuscitate the development of DJ Peterson and Dan Vogelbach. This is always one of my favorite days of the year, and there’s a hell of a lot less trepidation/unease than there was last year at this time.
Class A Midwest League: Clinton Lumberkings
Last year: 86-54, lost league championship to Great Lakes (LAD)
Mitch Canham took over the team last year and led the club to a dominant season, so it’s no surprise that the ex-Oregon State catcher got a promotion of his own. That means that the club will have another new manager, this time Pat Shine, a former Gonzaga Bulldog and a longtime assistant to the UC-Irvine program and then with the Miami Marlins. He managed in the collegiate Northwoods League back before moving to UCI, but didn’t overlap with M’s Player Development guru Andy McKay, who coached a different team in the league after Shine moved to UCI. The Lumberkings will try to repeat last year’s success with newcomers like starting pitcher Ljay Newsome, an undersized righty out of a Maryland HS, and OF Dimas Ojeda, a JC draft pick who hit well for Everett last season. The bullpen looks pretty good, with Marvin Gorgas, Michael Koval and others. Nick Wells was my pitcher to watch last year, and he was perhaps the one big disappointment on a team full of overachievers. He’s back, and has an opportunity to rebuild some of his prospect lustre.
In the IF, Bryson Brigman moves up to split SS duties with returning starter Rayder Ascanio. Ojeda headlines the OF along with returning prospect Luis Liberato, whose season was undone by a dreadful start. Canadian slugger Gareth Morgan, who’s struggled making contact in three years in the complex league, finally gets a full-season assignment. Ultra talented, but contact issues have absolutely sunk his value. He’s a real test of the new PD group.
Position Player to Watch: Dimas Ojeda. Anthony Jimenez, a Dominican CF, is in the mix here, but Ojeda hit at a higher level last year, and they’re the same age. Jimenez plays CF, so that narrows the gap. Would love to see one of these two break out, and I’d love to see Liberato make the big strides that I hoped he’d make last season.
Pitcher to Watch: Ljay Newsome. Tim Viehoff is another great pick, as one of the M’s myriad small college in the northeast draft picks, and he put up a nice 55:23 K:BB ratio in just 39 IP last year, PLUS he’s a lefty and has prototypical size. Newsome has none of that – he’s under 6′, a righty, and wasn’t a high draft pick. But he gets rave reviews for his competitiveness and pitchability, and hopefully he can ride that to a surprising season.
Opposing team to watch: For the 2nd straight year, it’s Quad Cities (HOU), who feature 6’7″ pitching prospect Forrest Whitley and CF prospect Daz Cameron, ex-M’s CF Mike Cameron’s son. Cameron struggled mightily after the Astros pushed him to the MWL initially, so he’s looking to make a very different impression this year.
High-A California League: Modesto Nuts
Last Year (as Bakersfield Blaze): 76-64, lost div. semifinals to Visalia (ARI)
Mitch Canham will try to make the playoffs in his first year in a new league yet again this year, as he’ll take over Modesto, a brand new M’s affiliate. Bakersfield was contracted, and weird, wonderful Sam Lynn Ballpark won’t host any Cal League baseball this year, but the M’s picked up the Modesto contract from Colorado. The pitching staff’s anchored by top prospect Nick Neidert, who more than held his own in the Midwest League at age 19. He’ll throw more IP this year, and we’ll see how aggressive the M’s want to be with his assignments. That’d be a nice problem to have. Also on the staff are college draft pick Reggie McLain, who gets the challenge assignment after pitching for Everett last year, and a pair of 6’3″ hurlers who starred for Clinton last year, Pablo Lopez (K:BB ratio of 56:9) and Art Warren (55:18). The IF’s headed up by Gianfranco Wawoe, who’ll repeat the Cal League, and newcomer Joey Curletta, whom the M’s acquired from PHI in exchange for Pat Venditte. The OF features glove-first CF’s Braden Biship and Ricky Eusebio, and they’ll be flanked by Indy/MiLB vet Willie Argo and Eric Filia, who the M’s drafted out of UCLA and who overmatched the NWL with a line of .362/.450/.492. He had 39 walks and just 19 Ks on the year for Everett, so of course the control-the-zone M’s bumped him past Clinton.
Position Player to Watch: None of the position players are young (or even average aged) for the league, so it’s a bit hard to pick here. We’ll go with Filia, whose development in college was stunted by a number of injuries, which was why he was 23 when the M’s picked him. Braden Bishop, the ex-UW Husky, is another pick, as his blend of speed and defense are basically MLB caliber, but whose bat trails far behind. If he can tap into even gap power, he’ll shoot up the prospect rankings. As it is, his career MiLB ISO is under .070. If that gets to .130 or so, he could become an intriguing OF. The Cal League will help with that, of course.
Pitcher to Watch: Neidert. The M’s first pick in the 2015 draft, Neidert has been at least as good as advertised in the M’s system. He’s polished beyond his years, and could make a statement this year in a real hitter’s league.
Opposing Team to Watch: Lancaster JetHawks. After losing the Modesto team, Colorado picked up Lancaster, the hitter’s haven. Their line-up is stocked with wonderfully named IF Forrest Wall, and SS Brendan Rogers, one of the best prospects in all of baseball. Those two make the best DP combination in the league by far. Also, they have a catcher named Hamlet Marte.
AA Texas League: Arkansas Travelers
Last Year (as Jackson Generals in the Southern League: 84-55, League Champions
Daren Brown moves with the affiliation, as the former Rainiers manager helmed Jackson to a league championship in their last year in the Southern League. The M’s had a Texas League affiliate years ago with San Antonio, but it’s been 11 years since the M’s were last a part of it. The Texas League’s the smallest of the three AA leagues, and is probably a bit more hitter-friendly than the Eastern League/Southern League. That said, the M’s are moving into a park that’s absolutely dreadful for power, particularly right-handed power. Statcorner puts their HR park factor for RHBs at an absurd 57, and MiLB’s own park factors (for all batters) are in that same vicinity. Keep that in mind when looking at AA stats this year.
The pitchers are led by Andrew Moore and Max Povse. Moore was the consummate polished collegiate pick, an Oregon State vet with an underwhelming fastball but solid command and great intangibles. Max Povse was, perhaps, the opposite: a mammoth 6’7″ frame and easy velocity but results that lagged behind his physical gifts. The bullpen features Brazilian fireballer Thyago Vieira, a candidate to join the big leagues if he can get past the control issues that sunk his spring training. Long-time M’s MiLB vets Marcus Littlewood and Tyler Marlette will catch. Every year at this time I talk up Marlette. One day, man.
Ryan Casteel, an MiLB veteran who had some good Cactus League ABs, joins the club along with returning IFs Justin Seager and Kyle Petty. AAA veteran Joey Wong will start at shortstop. The all-lefty OF features Chantz Mack, a corner OF with some pop, and Ian Miller, a CF without any, but who makes up for it with plus speed. Another MiLB vet, Kyle Waldrop, will play as well; Waldrop came up in the Reds org, and actually made the majors for a bit last year with Cincinnati.
Position Player to Watch: Uhhh, Marlette? Marlette was drafted way back in 2011, and had a rough go of it for a few years at the tail end of the Zduriencik era. He remains, somehow, the youngest position player on this roster (!). Chantz Mack is your runner-up.
Pitcher to Watch: Moore. Povse opened a lot of eyes in camp, and with a 95 MPH fastball, it’s easy to see why. But Moore is no longer sitting in the high-80s; he’s throwing 93 himself, and is slowly but surely breaking out of his old reputation. He was dominant at times down the stretch at this level last year, and after a strong spring, may get a look if the big club’s starters have injury issues. Thyago Vieira is absolutely fascinating, but can’t get past the two starters on this list.
Opposing Team to Watch: Springfield Cardinals. They’ve got pitching prospects Jack Flaherty, Sandy Alcantara and Austin Gomber, a bunch of position players no one knows (but one of whom will inevitably make the bigs and succeed), but I think all eyes are on ex-MLB closer and Steve Blass’ disease sufferer Daniel Bard.
AAA Pacific Coast League: Tacoma Rainiers
Last year: 81-62, lost in PCL Playoffs to El Paso (SDP)
It’s not often that the AAA club boasts the most intriguing roster, but I’d argue that’s what we have here. The pitching staff is designed to offer immediate help to the big club, and that’s most obvious in the bullpen, which features tons of big league experience. Ex-Cleveland Indian and UW Husky Nick Hagadone joins the org to play near his hometown, and ex-Giants RP Jean Machi will begin the year in Tacoma as well. Mark Lowe will rejoin the Rainiers, a team he’s pitched for (briefly) twice after making his big league debut with Seattle back in 2006. The rotation of Sam Gaviglio, Chris Heston, Dylan Unsworth, Christian Bergman and, we think, Chase de Jong is a strength, as Bergman and Heston have big league experience. Only Unsworth is a home-grown Mariner, and he looks to become the first African player to make the big leagues. While his fastball struggles to scrape 90, he’s made adjustments and used his pinpoint command to succeed in AA, and he’s coming off a very surprising Cactus League stint with the M’s. The bullpen features lefty Paul Fry, who shook off a mediocre first half to become the shut-down reliever I thought he could be down the stretch. He’s on the 40-man, so he could be someone the M’s bring up if they need another lefty. Tony Zych will start in Tacoma on a rehab assignment as well.
The infield features returning players Tyler Smith at SS and Zach Shank at 3B, though both have played all over the IF. Smith showed a bit of pop in Peoria; it’d be nice to see if that made the trip north with him. MLB vet Gordon Beckham just joined the club, after spending last year in the Anaheim system. Still, the focus will be on a pair of bat-first corner IFs: former 1st round pick and former #1 prospect DJ Peterson, who’s seen his stock fall due to injuries and a surprisingly lackluster hit tool, and Dan Vogelbach, the presumed starting 1B in Seattle before a bad spring got him sent down to AAA to work on a few mechanical adjustments. The OF boasts another couple of prospects in Tyler O’Neill and Ben Gamel.
Position Player to Watch: Despite the interest in Vogelbach/Peterson, the answer here has to be Tyler O’Neill. The top hitting prospect in the organization is coming off of a dream season in AA that saw him take the league MVP and then the league championship series MVP awards. He’s cut his strikeouts and become more of a complete hitter, but there are still enough question marks here that his will be a name to look for every day in the box score. AAA features a lot more craft veterans, and pitchers who know how to identify and exploit a hole in a prospect’s swing. How will O’Neill adjust? How will he fare in the spacious OF at Cheney Stadium? For a top-50-in-baseball sort of player, O’Neill still has some warning signs in his profile: he’s battled contact issues and while a wRC+ of 152 is great, it’s not jaw-dropping as the best season in a bat-first corner defender’s career. O’Neill can make the leap to big league contributor this year, or he could struggle for a while before making some adjustments to good pitching. I’m really looking forward to watching him this season.
Pitcher to Watch: Chris Heston. Tempted to go with Fry or newly-acquired reliever Evan Marshall, but even if they’re more likely to pitch in Seattle, they probably won’t have much of an impact. With one starter already on the 60-day DL and with another throwing 84, it’s starting pitching depth that’s critical to keeping the M’s afloat. As a major league vet who’s on the 40-man and returning from a serious arm injury, Heston can either solidify big league starting depth, or he can falter and wash out of the org. If he’s able to get back to the form he showed in 2014-15, he’s a brilliant get by Dipoto.
Opposing Team to Watch: Iowa Cubs. This is another pick that seems like a default choice now. The Cubs AAA affiliate features 2B Ian Happ, ex-Rockies P Eddie Butler, and at some point could feature OF Eloy Jimenez. El Paso is another possibility, with IF Carlos Asuaje and pitchers Phil “Auto” Maton and Walker Lockett.
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Great read. Thanks!