Game 4, Mariners at Astros
Ariel Miranda vs. Joe Musgrove, 5:10pm
It’s ludicrous to talk about must-win games in the season’s first week; it’s like a marathoner talking about not getting out of the blocks well. But M’s fans are in a weird head space right now, and I’m sure many of them feel that this game IS critical. The M’s have gotten solid pitching against a good line-up and come away with nothing. The Astros seemed better (on paper) than the M’s, and now they’ve got a three-game head start. It’s already caused the M’s playoff odds to dwindle by a noticeable amount. Is the sky falling?
No, but that’s not to say that everything’s fine. Keuchel and McCullers are excellent pitchers, and they’re excellent in large part because they’re able to define the terms of at-bats. Every single hitter goes up knowing that they’re going to see a sinking fastball, and that the pitcher’s game plan is to induce a ground ball. Everything that the hitters try to do is aimed at countering that, at driving the pitchers up in the zone and driving a pitch in the air. With that perhaps overly obvious prologue, take a look at this list of teams’ average launch angle thus far. The Cubs and Orioles, you won’t be shocked to hear, are near the top with average angles over 10 degrees. Perhaps more surprising is that they’re trailing the Padres, who haven’t been great against the Dodgers, but have hit the ball in the air. The Pads have picked up a number of players with this skill, but it’s too early to say that they’re able to dictate terms to opposing pitchers: the Dodgers induce a lot of fly-ball (and pop-up) contact.
But look at the M’s! Last in the league, and the *only* team in baseball with a negative launch angle. Again, given who they’ve faced, this may not be all that shocking, or indicative of some sort of failing. It DOES show, though, that the M’s have been singularly ineffective at getting the Astros’ hurlers out of their comfort zone. The Astros wanted ground ball contact, and they’re getting it, again and again. The M’s have some fly ball hitters – the guys who are supposed to do *better* against ground-ball pitchers – but it hasn’t mattered thus far.
Musgrove flew through the Houston system and had an intriguing debut with the Astros last year. He throws an odd, straight 93 MPH fastball that’s been tough for batters to pick up. His best pitch has been a slider with a ton of horizontal break. In the minors, he showed absurdly low walk rates, and while they climbed a bit in the big leagues, it’s still one of his standout skills. The raw stuff isn’t eye-popping, but it plays up due to some deception and movement, and he’s not going to give away a lot of free passes. Against righties, he’s pitched a bit like yesterday’s starter, Charlie Morton, in that he pitches off his breaking ball. He’s a bit more traditional vs. lefties, but that slider’s a pitch he’ll throw any time. Lefties fared much better than righties, as you’d expect, so this game is critical for Cano/Seager.
1: Segura, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Ruiz, C
8: Dyson, LF
9: Martin, CF
SP: Miranda
As expected, Dillon Overton was activated today from the paternity leave list, and Chase de Jong rejoins Tacoma.
Speaking of which, it’s been a while since I’ve been able to do this:
Tacoma faces off with the Rivercats in Sacramento (SFG), with Sam Gaviglio taking the hill for the Rainiers against Chris Stratton.
Arkansas plays their first game as an M’s affiliate with Andrew Moore on the mound, as the Travelers host the Corpus Christi Hooks (HOU).
Nick Neidert starts Modesto’s opener at Lake Elsinore, and Ljay Newsome takes the Clinton Lumberkings into Kane County (OAK).
Here we go again. Fast balls in the middle. What’d I say about long year???
I need to be more positive….
Segura has looked pretty good so far, hopefully the rest of the guys can catch up.
Is Nelson Cruz still sick? He looks horrible at the plate.
I like this Haniger kid, wish that Gamel could of made the team as well. Maybe we will see him sometime this season.
Weren’t you upset yesterday with some of the guys that “Dipoto just had to have” … with Hanniger being one of those guys?
no not Haniger i was talking about Chase Dejong lol, I was caught up in the moment 🙂
Please forgive my irrational start of the season ramblings, I’m gonna work on my negative reactions and silly angry posts.
Ouch Kyle, 2 errors in 3 games, lets get those jitters out of the way please sir.
I was hopeful Miranda could manage to give them 6 after the load they had last night, but at least he kept them in the game.
Would be nice if the bats could do a little more to keep them in the game.
Aoki, baserunning wiz.
Nice to see Aoki throw us a bone.
As much as we are dissapointed in our hitting, I don’t think the Astros have been much better. Aside from the solo dingers, which have hurt non the less, the pitching has been pretty decent.
Maybe Overton will make his first start tonight?
Nice hit by Dyson. Martin could use a day off – or at least I could use a day off from watching him try to hit. Heredia should be good and rusty by now – and ready for a start in CF tomorrow.
Runs! omg Runs!
That called strike 3 on Haniger was bullshit, but at least they got the lead.
Yeah Mike, Martin’s been far too aggressive. I think everyone in the stadium knew he was getting a crap breaking ball after tattooing the previous fastball foul.
Well, that called strike 3 on Aoki was bullshit.
I’ll happily take it to LA, though.
There was quite a few questionable strike calls in this series, there was a lot of talk about trying to make the strike zone higher which on a few occasions from what I saw had an impact on some of the pitches.
Mariners Win ! This year, I hope to type this at least ninety regular times, and at least eleven special times.