Game 30, Rangers at Mariners
Yovani Gallardo vs. Yu Darvish, 7:10pm
The M’s welcome the last-place Rangers for a three game series beginning tonight. The M’s managed to miss ace Yu Darvish in their last series with Texas, but aren’t so lucky this time. With the Rangers scuffling thanks to another April bullpen implosion (remember Shawn Tolleson last year?) and with Darvish in the final year of his deal, Dave argues he could become the most sought-after strech run rental on the market. It’s easy to see why: he still has above average velocity and probably the deepest pitch arsenal in the game. His control, if you go by walk rate, has never been elite, but the more data we get, the more he looks like a guy with plus command.
Using Statcast’s definition of the strikezone’s edge (within a ball’s width of the zone boundary, either in or out), Darvish has thrown the 7th highest percentage of pitches on the edge of anyone in baseball. Does that matter? Yes and no. It matters because the league as a whole hits the ball softer on pitches on the edge than they do on pitches solidly within the zone; getting contact on the edge is preferable to getting contact in the zone. League wide, batters average exit velocity is 85 MPH on the edge, compared to 90.1 MPH within the zone. You get poor contact quality on balls well outside the zone too, of course, but hitting the edge gives you the best of both worlds: plenty of called strikes if batters take the pitch, and weaker contact if they don’t. Darvish ranked 37th out of 439 pitchers who threw at least 500 pitches last year, so there’s some evidence that he has a real skill at hitting the edges. On the other hand, the qualified pitcher with the highest edge percentage is Kyle Gibson of the Twins, a guy who’s been so bad this year he was sent to AAA after yesterday’s game.
That said, Darvish’s primary strength is that his stuff allows him to pitch in the zone and not pay a big penalty for it. Over the last two years combined, Darvish’s average exit velocity on pitches solidly within the zone is the 10th lowest in baseball, just ahead of Noah Syndergaard. Velocity helps (as you see from Syndergaard, Carlos Martinez, Darvish and Jon Gray ranking well), but it’s not everything, as we see last night with Alex Meyer. Darvish’s ability to keep hitters off guard results in a lower BABIP and fewer home runs than anyone should allow as a fly ball pitcher in Arlington.
Let’s look back at that table of the pitchers who’ve best targeted the edge of the zone. Just a few places behind Darvish sits Yovani Gallardo. HIS exit velocity on these pitches is lower than Darvish’s, and sure, Gallardo can’t make a living within the zone like Darvish can, but he does show that if you’re able to hit the edges, you can survive in MLB. Gallardo’s inducing a lot of grounders again (his year in Baltimore was odd for many reasons, including an abnormally low GB%), and they’re not being struck all that well. So why does he have a BABIP of .352, one of the worst in the league?* If you look at a heatmap of the contact he’s given up, it looks completely innocuous:
The problem is they’re not being turned into outs. Baseball Reference says he’s batters are hitting .310 on grounders against Gallardo thus far, or about 46% higher than average. Gallardo’s been a microcosm of the M’s pitching staff in general, which is yielding a batting average of .289 on grounders, and production 40% higher than average.
Again, I’m wondering if the M’s want to shift a bit less or perhaps shift differently, because something isn’t working, and Gallardo’s paying the price for it.
1: Segura, SS
2: Gamel, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Heredia, LF
8: Ruiz, C
9: Dyson, CF
SP: Gallardo
I mentioned it the other day, but it’s worth recognizing just how good Ben Gamel’s been, and just how unlike the Ben Gamel of 2016 he’s been. Yes, he’s still a patient hitter, bordering on TOO patient, and his swing rate’s actually gone down in the early going in 2017. But what happens when he DOES swing is totally different. Like Taylor Motter, he’s given up trying to spray the ball around the field and is now trying to pull the ball, and, well, he’s doing it. A hitter without a ton of HR power in an outfield corner is always going to be a somewhat marginal player, but if you ARE going to make it, you’ve got to hit the ball hard in the gaps. The new Ben Gamel may be capable of that. I’m stunned at this change, just like I was stunned at Motter’s. The M’s coaching staff has come in for some criticism this year given the regression or at least lack of progress from Dan Vogelbach, Leonys Martin’s collapse, Dan Altavilla and most of the bullpen’s issues and more, but Gamel is starting to look like a win for them.
Tacoma cruised past Las Vegas 8-1 last night, getting another great start from Sam Gaviglio and 3 hits (including a 2B and 3B) from Mike Freeman, who’s torching the PCL at the moment. Leonys Martin doubled twice, too. Chris Heston faces off with Tyler Pill today in Vegas.
Arkansas split their doubleheader with Tulsa, winning game 1 3-1 behind Lindsey Caughel’s best start in the org, and losing the nightcap by the same score after a so-so start from Andrew Moore. Drillers 3B Edwin Rios hit 2 HRs in game 2, but made 2 errors in game 1. Today, Max Povse tries to get back on the right track after two straight poor starts.
Modesto beat Lake Elsinore thanks to Anthony Misiewicz’s best start of the year. The righty out of Michigan State went 7 IP, allowing just one hit and one walk, and striking out 8. Joey Curletta hit a 3R HR to lead the offense. Reggie McClain starts today’s game against the Storm, opposite Padres prospect and 2016 first-rounder Eric Lauer.
Clinton lost the finale of their series with West Michigan 9-3, as an 8 run inning turned a 2-0 lead into a deficit they couldn’t recover from. Nick Wells was cruising, then suddenly wasn’t, and the bullpen tossed dry, cured wood on to the fire. Today, the Lumberkings head to South Bend to take on the Cubs, and Clinton has Ljay Newsome on the mound, looking for his 5th straight solid start, and looking to extend his unreal K:BB ratio, which currently stands at 30:1.
* Felix’s stands at .388, which is just ludicrous.
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Game 31: 1-1 in the seventh.
De Jong did a pretty good job, but the Mariners are RISP-challenged yet again…
Had to log out of USSM and then log back in before I could post…
The Rangers are having issues at first base tonight. It’d be nice if the Mariners would actually take advantage of that this time around.
That was one painful RBI for Heredia.
More painful for the Rangers!
I’d like to see the Rangers’ pain increase more though. The Mariners have sucked with RISP lately.
Yeah! Way to go, Danny Boy!
Good to see some life in Danny!
Motter!
Motter showing he’s still got that canned power.
Thank goodness for our hippies!
Woo runs!
Not a bad inning for Gamel.
Old game thread write-up but only today’s comments appear. New trend?
One write-up per year seems feasible. And awful.
Nice 7th inning by the non-Seager batters. He has a couple hits today (not complaining) but a crappy at bat with the bases full (yes complaining).
Gamel – rookie.
Upsies and downsies expected. Great game Thursday. Bad game Friday. Expected.
Good tools – has promise. And his hair kicks ass over Motters straight bad Garth wig look IMO. Although I do like Motter. He just needs to up his hair game a bit.
The site resets the comments after #50. I’d actually posted a couple today before that.
There’s probably a workaround to get at comments 1-49.
Gamel had a hell of a diving catch yesterday, though. I don’t fault him for the shitty bunt, either. That’s on Servais.
Hahaha Odor has been involved in all the “stinky” plays at first tonight – twice throwing, once receiving.
I honestly never understood why the fangraphs community, and many of the fans here, were so down on Gamel when he was acquired. He cost a single A pitcher to acquire and he was showing all the right kinds of discipline in the minors. He was a clear-cut gap hitter with decent defense.
His current line probably isn’t sustainable, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he proves to be an above average hitter.
I’ll call this a huge win. We got 6 from De Jong and exploited their crappy relief.
This was a nice win.