Ok, NOW Panic: James Paxton to DL with Forearm Strain
The season is not yet 1/5th of the way through, and though the M’s current position and slightly less-bleak playoff odds aren’t that encouraging, the M’s have had several players show signs of blowing their preseason projections out of the water. While, say, Jean Segura isn’t going to eliminate the gap between the M’s and Astros, you could kind of see a path to wildcard contention if a number of things went right: Felix/Haniger are only out 3 weeks, and come back at more or less full strength, Gamel continues to hit, Texas continues to struggle with health, etc. Today, the M’s just announced that ace lefty James Paxton will miss a “couple of starts” with a forearm strain. Now it’s really, really hard to make out a path that doesn’t end at game 162.
I mentioned yesterday that the rotation’s been fine, and that the run prevention group’s problems lie in the bullpen and defense. That’s been true, but the rotation’s overall numbers are, to date, the product of one incredible starter, a couple of guys performing heroically to get to within hailing distance of average, and then some pretty rough stuff. The Mariners rotation has been worth 2.1 fWAR to date. Of that, Paxton accounts for 1.7. Bob Dutton reports that it’s only a grade 1 strain, and that he could be back shortly after his 10-day DL stint ends. In that amount of time, there’s really not much any one pitcher can do to swing a seasonal win total all that much. Chase de Jong was awful, but it was just one game. But now Chase de Jong is stuck in the rotation for weeks, as Christian Bergman will be called up to replace Paxton. They’ve already cycled through Chris Heston, and de Jong hasn’t inspired a ton of confidence. If *either* Felix or Paxton’s return is delayed, at all, you’re talking about a significant number of innings given to pitchers who may not give the M’s much of a chance.
And worrying that the injuries to Paxton/Felix might linger isn’t some paranoid thing. Thanks to a series of high-profile cases, fans often rightly see forearm strains as a precursor to elbow ligament injuries down the road. The M’s have checked that in Paxton’s case, so I’m not suggesting that Paxton’s been misdiagnosed. Rather, I’m concerned that something in Paxton’s delivery is putting a lot of strain on his fingers and thus his forearm. Paxton’s own injury history is evidence against assuming that all will be well at the end of the DL period. His 15-day DL for a middle finger problem in 2015 turned into several months of missed time. His fingernail problems in 2015 and 2016 was corrected more quickly, but the lat strain that sidelined him in 2014 took 4 months. The M’s can’t afford to have their one clearly above-average pitcher out of action for anything close to that.
Dutton’s article says that Christian Bergman will get the chance to start in Paxton’s absence, though that move hasn’t yet been made. It’ll require a 40-man move, as Bergman isn’t on the roster at this point. In the short term, Evan Marshall and Mike Freeman are up from AAA, while Boog Powell heads back down. No word yet on who’d come off the roster to make room for Bergman; that move’s expected over the weekend. Bergman’s been one of the best starters in the PCL thus far in 2017, and has plenty of big league experience with the Rockies the past few years. That said, there’s a reason he’s with the M’s on a minor league deal. He throws in the high-80s, with a slider/cutter breaking ball and a change-up. Neither secondary pitch looks all that hot in terms of movement, so the fact that he’s had HR problems in the majors may not be solely a Coors Field artifact. His change-up WAS good enough to keep lefties off balance, even if it wasn’t a real strikeout pitch. His problem’s been that he doesn’t have anything to get *righties* out with. Righties have slugged .699 off his fastball, and nearly .500 off of his cutter. He’s thrown some change-ups to righties too, but they’ve gotten destroyed just like his fastball. He won’t be pitching in Denver, and his results in 2017 have been very encouraging, but Bergman is very much in the de Jong/Heston command/control mode, and that hasn’t worked terribly well thus far. Best of luck to him, and best of luck to Paxton in his recovery.
EDIT TO ADD ANOTHER ROSTER MOVE:
Mike Zunino’s on again, off again MLB career is now switched back off, and his hitting woes are now up to Tacoma’s coaching staff to fix. He’s been optioned, while Tuffy Gosewisch is up with the big club. It’s worth remembering that Zunino’s “transformation” occurred in Tacoma last year, and the longer he was away from the fabulous City of Destiny, the worse he hit. That said, this is a big blow to the M’s, as Zunino not only failed to capitalize on a season that looked fairly promising, but regressed into his 2015 form. Not sure I’ve seen a career arc like his in a while, though of course you can insert your failed busted prospect here. He’s looked competent at times, though never for all that long. Still, those months of decent power production show how he COULD add value, if he’s ever able to fix his pitch recognition and swing-and-miss issues (the two are related, of course).
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And before anyone could comment on this a couple of more names went down.
The baseball gods have been cruel. But what choice have they got but to keep at it? It’s not like moving the contracts of Cano, Felix, or even Seager would be easy if Dipoto were to consider a reboot.