Game 42, White Sox at Mariners

marc w · May 18, 2017 at 5:38 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

Sam Gaviglio vs. Dylan Covey, 7:10pm

Sam Gaviglio’s about to turn 27, and was *just* added to the 40-man a week or two back. He’s broken free from the “organizational depth” tag that had been dropped on him, but he had some help in the form of a plague of injuries to M’s pitchers. Christian Bergman was in much the same place (though he had plenty of MLB experience), and he certainly looked great yesterday. Still, the point I want to make is that Gaviglio may be the most unlikely starting pitcher ever to be a 2:1 favorite in Fangraphs’ game odds. They may change when the line-ups come in, but as of this writing, the M’s have a 66.3% chance of winning a game started by Sam Gaviglio. Why would a non-roster invitee to spring training have that kind of odds? Because he’s matched up with a Rule 5 pick who’s being beaten like a metal band’s kick drum.

Dylan Covey was an A’s farmhand for several years, but was known well before that as an elite prep arm. He was drafted #14 overall in 2010, one pick after Chris Sale. He’d been unreal as a junior, and even going at #14 overall seemed like a bit of a disappointment – a reaction to slightly lower velo in his senior year. Thus, Covey spurned the Brewers and enrolled at the University of San Diego, hoping to rebuild his draft stock. It…didn’t work out that way. His command left him, and his velocity never returned, so in his draft year, he gave up 90 hits in 76 2/3 IP and walked another 43. His ERA of 5.05 was artificially suppressed by the *11* unearned runs he gave up. Given all of that, it’s somewhat amazing that he went in the 4th round, but that’s where the A’s grabbed him. His MiLB career has been underwhelming, too, but at least it was trending up despite an injury-plagued 2016.

The Sox grabbed him in Rule 5, and have plopped him into their rotation. At this point, he’s given up 9 HRs in less than 30 IP. Armed with a 92 MPH four-seam and sinker, a rarely-used change and a slider-y cutter, he’s supposed to be a command/control guy, but it hasn’t happened quite yet. His K-BB% of 5% is less than half of the league average, and an ERA of about 8 and a FIP over 7 are similarly poor marks. Essentially, this is a long bet on the ability of pitching coach Don Cooper to work his magic once again. The Sox big haul in the Adam Eaton trade, Lucas Giolito, is struggling in AAA. One of the big names from the Chris Sale deal, Michael Kopech, has been solid in AA, but is still struggling with walks. If Cooper can turn 2 of these guys back into legitimate MLB starters, he’ll have produced a ton of value. Clearly, Kopech/Giolito are far ahead of Covey in the prospect world, but Covey is yet another lottery ticket, and Covey still has more prospect sheen than Jose Quintana had.

1: Segura, SS
2: Gamel, RF
3: Cruz, DH
4: Seager, 3B
5: Valencia, 1B
6: Powell, LF
7: Motter, 2B
8: Dyson, CF
9: Ruiz, C
SP: Gaviglio

Didn’t mention it yesterday, but the M’s made yet another transaction, optioning Chase de Jong back to Tacoma and recalling recently-acquired pitcher Casey Lawrence. Lawrence has been roughly as bad as Covey this year, but has been solid for the Jays’ AAA team in 2016-17.

Tacoma got a split of a doubleheader yesterday in Omaha, winning the first 7-2 before dropping the nightcap 4-2. Kyle Hunter pitched well in Game 1, and Chris Heston pitched 4 solid innings in Game 2, but the bats were held in check. Danny Muno, yet *another* new face, homered in Game 2, and the R’s got HRs from Vogelbach/Pizzano/Martin in game 1. They’re playing *another* doubleheader today. Game 1’s started by newcomer Tyler Cloyd, who faces off with Royals prospect Josh Staumont. Cloyd’s coming off TJ surgery, and is limited to 45 pitches, per Mike Curto. Game 2’s starter’s still TBD, so we could have a loooong bullpen day in Omaha.

NW Arkansas is still perfect against regular, vanilla Arkansas. NWA (not THAT NWA) beat Dylan Unsworth and the Travs 4-1. Unsworth gave up all 4 runs in the 2nd IP, but was solid after that, working 6 innings. Zac Curtis was great in relief, buoyed by his success in the big leagues, no doubt. Tyler Herb tries to turn the tide for Arkansas against Corey Ray and the Naturals.

Lancaster beat Modesto 9-5, as Pablo Lopez gave up 8 runs in 4 2/3 IP. Joe DeCarlo and Logan Taylor homered for the Nuts, and Braden Bishop had a standard Bishop game with one hit and two walks; his OBP is now .407. Nick Neidert starts tonight opposite Trey Killian of the JetHawks.

Clinton lost a pitcher’s duel to Wisconsin 2-1. Ljay Newsome gave up 2 runs on 5 H and 1 BB in 5 2/3 IP, striking out 4. But the Lumberkings couldn’t figure out Thomas Jankins, who went 7 2/3 IP in what was by far his longest outing as a professional. OK, Nick Zammarelli did, as he homered, but the L-Kings managed just three singles outside of that blast. Clinton kicks off a series with Burlington tonight; Danny Garcia takes the mound for Clinton.

Comments

18 Responses to “Game 42, White Sox at Mariners”

  1. Steve Nelson on May 18th, 2017 5:44 pm

    The Oriole’s DFAed Francisco Pena. Seems as though it wouldn’t be that tough to upgrade Tuffy, and Pena seems as though he would.

  2. msfanmike on May 18th, 2017 7:18 pm

    Steve, I don’t know you – but my hunch is that you would be an upgrade over Tuffy Gosewich.

  3. mrakbaseball on May 18th, 2017 8:04 pm

    Tony Pena’s son.

  4. Steve Nelson on May 18th, 2017 8:46 pm

    What Gosewich does have is experience working with most of the Mariners pitching staff, in Tacoma.

  5. mariner_funk on May 18th, 2017 8:57 pm

    So does mikey Z, but i would take tony pena son, or steve nelson jr. or 3rd row, second seat over tuffy, oh wait that guy is starting pitcher tomorrow…fine section 12 row 15 seat 3 for our catcher.

  6. stevemotivateir on May 18th, 2017 9:08 pm

    Gaviglio’s debut proved to be a success. Would have been nice to have gotten 6 from him, but it’s tough to complain with 0 runs and just 3 hits.

  7. Westside guy on May 18th, 2017 9:14 pm

    Catcher dropped that strike 3, and suddenly I’m thinking about Miguel Olivo.

  8. Grayfox3d on May 18th, 2017 9:18 pm

    can we just get an easy win please!

  9. Westside guy on May 18th, 2017 9:34 pm

    The answer is apparently “no”, Grayfox3d…

  10. Grayfox3d on May 18th, 2017 9:38 pm

    I dunno if were allowed to swear to much or not but seriously …. F**K Dan Altavilla….

  11. Sportszilla on May 18th, 2017 9:39 pm

    It is astonishing how bad the Mariners bullpen has been this year.

  12. WTF_Ms on May 18th, 2017 9:47 pm

    Our batters aren’t looking great either.

  13. msfanmike on May 18th, 2017 9:55 pm

    They need to find a way to win this game. It was/is such a winnable game. If the offense doesn’t hit a dinger – they don’t score, so dinger it up boys!

  14. Grayfox3d on May 18th, 2017 10:13 pm

    ummm any reason for pinch hitting Heredia for Gamel?

  15. Grayfox3d on May 18th, 2017 10:14 pm

    I stand corrected. Nice job boys.

  16. Westside guy on May 18th, 2017 10:15 pm

    Woo hoo!

  17. mariner_funk on May 18th, 2017 10:15 pm

    i was going to ask why bring heredia in for gamels, oh ok, thats why. But seriously is there some reason i missed for pinch hitting for the hot gamels?

  18. Jake on May 19th, 2017 6:23 am

    Yes, Gamel was lifted due to the LHP.

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