Game 43, White Sox at Mariners

marc w · May 19, 2017 at 5:30 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

Ariel Miranda vs. Jose Quintana, 7:10pm

Yesterday’s game featured two of the least likely starters to throw quality starts, and despite the fact that neither *technically* did, it was a remarkably well-pitched game (until the bullpens got involved). Today’s game features what looks, on paper, like a mismatch: one of the game’s most sought-after, very-much-available starters in Jose Quintana, against Ariel Miranda, who was supposed to be Seattle’s #6 starter and finds himself in the #2 role all of the sudden.

Quintana was nearly traded in the offseason, when teammates Chris Sale and Adam Eaton moved on, but the White Sox held out for a better package, and thought Quintana could build value through the season. Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened, as Quintana got off to a horrible start, and still sports a walk rate that’s *double* what it was in 2015. He’s striking people out, but walks and HRs have left him with a FIP and ERA well into the 4’s. Quintana was never the kind of guy who’d command a princely haul in trade just because he looks so…normal. There’s no premium velocity, no clear out-pitch. He’s just been remarkably consistent for several years, pitching like a very different kind of #2 starter. He reminds me a bit of Hisashi Iwakuma’s good years, where he’d post a vanishingly low walk rate, a good but not great K rate, and sneak up on people as an extremely effective pitcher. Iwakuma’s age and injury history prevented him from developing really demonstrated consistency, but Quintana’s essentially matched Iwakuma’s line, but over more IP and starts. That’s why it’s so damaging to have a season like this, even when it doesn’t look like anything’s glaringly wrong. If your primary selling point is consistency, a bad patch looks a lot worse.

It’s weird- Quintana isn’t throwing that many more balls, and batters’ average exit velocity is down a bit from last year. His K rate’s still a career high. His BABIP’s higher than it was in 2016, but still lower than his 2015 mark. Even his pitches per plate appearance are down from career averages. He shouldn’t *be* struggling like this, especially with his control. As you can probably guess, a big part of the problem has been that he’s been much worse with men on base. In his career, he’s given up a .319 wOBA with men on base (including 2017). It was under .309 every year from 2013-2016. It’s .353 now, with both HRs and walks increasing. His career FIP w/men on is 3.57; it’s nearly two full runs higher than that in 2017. He’s never had sequencing or situational issues before, so it’s not like this is a long-standing problem. He’s still unlucky if you compare the expected outcome of the balls in play he’s given up versus what actually happened, but there’s some evidence he’s slipping a bit against righties. As a lefty, he’s always had platoon splits, but they’re normal, and he held righties’ performance down such that it wasn’t a problem. Righties are hitting him much better this year, and while that could regress a bit, it indicates that good right-handed hitting teams might give him some problems. Cruz/Segura/Valencia/Motter (man, I want Mitch Haniger back) might give him some problems.

1: Segura, SS
2: Heredia, LF
3: Cruz, DH
4: Seager, 3B
5: Valencia, 1B
6: Motter, 2B
7: Gamel, RF
8: Gosewisch, C
9: Dyson, CF
SP: Miranda

Tacoma split a double-header with Omaha despite having a patched-together pitching staff. They won game 1 1-0 on a Josh Staumont wild pitch. That gave Emilio Pagan the win in relief of Tyler Cloyd, who went 4. Game 2 featured MiLB Rule 5 pick-up Paul Paez starting, giving up 2 runs in 4 IP, and 2 IP of relief from Steven Ridings, who was recently called up to Arkansas from extended, and who’d pitched less than 9 IP in total in his pro career. Fun times! Rob Whalen starts tonight in Iowa against the I-Cubs.

Arkansas finally beat the Northwest Arkansas Naturals, as Tyler Herb tossed his best game of the year, limiting NWA to 1 run on 7 hits in 7 IP (with 7 Ks and 0 BBs). Kyle Waldrop homered for the Travs in a 7-3 win. Brett Ash starts tonight for Arkansas in Tulsa.

Nick Neidert pitched around a 2-HR, 4-R first inning to lead Modesto to a 12-7 win against Lancaster. Neidert managed 5 IP, and benefited from *9* extra-base hits by the Nuts offense. He also helped himself by getting two pick-offs. Chris Mariscal had 3 hits, including a 2B and a HR. Top Rockies prospect Brendan Rogers doubled, but it was CF Wes Rogers, who (like many on Lancaster) played for Modesto last year, who HR’d off of Neidert. Today, it’s Anthony Misiewicz on the hill, taking on Matt Krook and the San Jose Giants. Krook’s yielded quite a few krooked innings this year; he’s somehow given up 27 runs in 17 2/3 innings.

Clinton lost to Burlington 8-5, as the Angels top prospect, OF Jahmai Jones, had 3 extra-base hits out of the leadoff spot to pace the Bees. Luis Liberato homered for the Lumberkings. SP Danny Garcia got bombed, yielding 11 hits and 8 runs in 3 1/3 IP. Brandon Miller toes the rubber for Clinton tonight.

Comments

20 Responses to “Game 43, White Sox at Mariners”

  1. Westside guy on May 19th, 2017 8:43 pm

    Into the sixth, and Miranda just gave up a MAMMOTH home run. It’s 1-1 going into the bottom of the inning.

  2. Westside guy on May 19th, 2017 9:19 pm

    Well that was stupid, Gamel.

  3. WTF_Ms on May 19th, 2017 9:21 pm

    You can tell it’s nice outside. Only 2 comments so far!

  4. mrakbaseball on May 19th, 2017 9:25 pm

    Tom Paciorek should have gave the rest of the guys trident pullover jerseys too. The teal was hard on the eyes in 1994 and things haven’t changed 23 years later.

  5. mrakbaseball on May 19th, 2017 9:26 pm

    If they weren’t going to pinch hit for Tuffy last inning I guess they never will.

  6. Grayfox3d on May 19th, 2017 9:49 pm

    1 hit and 1 walk… that’s all this team could put together…

  7. Westside guy on May 19th, 2017 9:59 pm

    Can’t blame the pitching for this one…

  8. Steve Nelson on May 20th, 2017 1:55 pm

    @mrakbaseball on May 19th, 2017 9:26 pm

    If they weren’t going to pinch hit for Tuffy last inning I guess they never will.

    If there had been anybody on base I think they would have. But with only two potential PHs on the bench (I’m not counting Ruiz), I think it was a reasonable decision to have Gosewich bat.

    The more questionable decision involves keeping Gosewich on the roster. I’m sure that part of that involves the sheer number of pitchers they have brought up from Tacoma. If Gosewich makes it easier for those guys to fill in at the MLB level, it makes his [lack of] hitting a bit more tolerable. If Tuffy has any contribution at all to the performances of Bergman and Gaviglio, then putting him in the lineup is understandable. It just leaves the Mariners playing with a NL linueup in the AL.

    And when they play inter-league in a NL park, it’s like having two pitchers in the batting order.

  9. Westside guy on May 20th, 2017 7:15 pm

    Game 44

    Gallardo versus Pelfrey

    Yakety Sax is starting early – thank you, Mr. Freeman.

  10. Grayfox3d on May 20th, 2017 7:18 pm

    Guess they just wanted to get this over with early or something.

  11. Westside guy on May 20th, 2017 7:20 pm

    Oh man this got ugly mighty quickly. I was gonna type the lineup, but now don’t know that I’ll bother.

  12. WTF_Ms on May 20th, 2017 7:20 pm

    Not even an out and we’re starting 4 runs down. Awesome.

  13. Westside guy on May 20th, 2017 7:22 pm

    That out was a gift.

  14. WTF_Ms on May 20th, 2017 7:46 pm

    I’d bet that this lineup would be killing in AAA!

  15. Westside guy on May 20th, 2017 7:58 pm

    Dave Sims just quoted Ren & Stimpy.

  16. Westside guy on May 20th, 2017 8:19 pm

    That was a nice play by Seager – but I can’t take this. I’m going to go enjoy what’s left of the daylight.

  17. Grayfox3d on May 20th, 2017 8:40 pm

    Embarassing.

  18. Westside guy on May 20th, 2017 9:16 pm

    Looks like Overton is taking one for the team.

    Whether he wants to or not.

  19. Grayfox3d on May 20th, 2017 9:55 pm

    Can we all just admit that we’re probably toast at this point as far as any play off hopes go, I’m not trying to be negative or jump off the wagon, but after a performance like this and that last series in Toronto, I don’t know how anyone could put any kind of faith in this team.

    The real question is where does Dipoto and management go from here.

  20. Notfromboise on May 21st, 2017 4:04 am

    Its a good question to ask. Dipoto put his energy into fixing obp and run production. Both have improved this year.

    Both have improved because of Segura, Gamel, and Haniger. Which are his acquisitions. What continues to mystify is how we cannot get ANY production behind the plate or at first base. I mean, if we were getting even league average from those positions with the stick, we would be a flippin’ juggernaught on offense.

    The real sputtering has come on the pitching side of things, and i don’t know how to fault Dipoto here. He blew money on Miley last year and didn’t translate into much. This year he did much less in the offseason for the pitching staff, so its not like his moves haven’t worked out.

    Felix, Iwakuma, and Paxton are the crux of your rotation, and they are all hurt. That’s not Dipoto’s fault. Neither is the fact they are so banged up in the rotation we’re on like our 3rd person in the rotation that didnt start the year even on the 40 man.. /shrug.

    It just leaves a bitter taste to have given so many young arms a chance this year to give us ‘something’ and we have gotten a whole lot of nothing.

    And worst of all, people arent running away with the AL wild card slots either, so we’re not gonna be waving the white flag soon.

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