Game 59, Twins at Mariners – Paxton *and* Felix Day
James Paxton vs. Hector Santiago, 7:10pm
Happy Felix Day. And also, Happy Paxton Day.
The M’s welcome the strangely successful Twins to town, and the M’s have their ace on the mound in what certainly looks like a lopsided pitching match-up. Equally importantly, Felix Hernandez makes his first rehab start 30 miles south in Tacoma. To really work, to be a team that’s capable of making up a bunch of ground in a thick field of wild card contenders, the M’s need both of these pitchers healthy and effective. Tonight’s an important night, then.
To start with the big league club, the M’s face the surprising leaders of the AL Central – a team that finds itself in first despite a pitching staff that ranks last in the AL in HR/9, last in K% and K-BB%, and – perhaps unsurprisingly – last in FIP. As a staff, the Twins get far fewer grounders and lots more fly balls than average. As mentioned, they don’t strike people out, so combining a whole lot of balls in play with lots of balls in play in the air, and you’re going to see a bunch of home runs.
Today’s starter, Hector Santiago, has been one of the primary offenders, with a 1.88 HR/9 mark thus far. That’d make the fourth consecutive increase in that stat for Santiago, or every year since he became a big league starter. Santiago throws about 90, and while he came up as a guy with a screwball, he hasn’t really used it in the majors. Instead, he’s tried to use his command to stay away from the center of the zone, and use his rising fastball to get either whiffs or called strikes. For a few years, it worked – pretty much, anyway. As a guy with poor stuff, he was always walking a very fine line – miss his spot by a little bit, and it was likely to go a long way. This may account for both his high HRs-allowed and mediocre walk rate. Those stats tanked his FIP, and thus his fWAR, but he kept his ERA below 4 for 4 straight years. Last year and this year, though, something’s changed, and he’s gone from FIP-beating oddity to oft-beaten replacement-level guy. He’s still not as bad as his FIP would suggest thanks to a persistently low BABIP, but for that to matter, he’s got to stop yielding so many home runs.
When Santiago was “good,” he froze hitters with inside pitches, getting well more than league average looking strikes. When he hit the edges of the zone, he could be tough. If the ball strayed out over the middle, the results were much worse. Now, that’s true of everyone, of course, but Santiago’s margin for error is lower than most thanks to his pedestrian stuff. When he was decent, in 2015, he got called strikes on 19% of his pitches, well more than the league average of 16.9% (Santiago ranked 28th out of 260 pitchers who threw at least 1000 pitches). This year, he’s under 16%, ranking 285 out of 421 pitchers who’ve thrown at least 200 pitches. That slight loss of command is debilitating for him. He’s *still* great when he hits the edge. But batters aren’t looking at strikes, and he can’t make them swing at balls.
Over the past three years, no one’s given up more “barrels” – essentially, balls hit really, really well – than his teammate Phil Hughes, but Santiago’s in the top (bottom?) ten. This is amongst the saddest leaderboards you’ll see, with late-period Jered Weaver and AJ Griffin featuring prominently. This is the consequence of Santiago’s loss of command. He used to get away with an occasional grooved pitch. As his grooved pitches creep upwards, there are fewer K’s and more balls flying over the fence. The fact that Phil Hughes and Tyler Duffey are also on it makes you wonder what’s going on with the Twins – is this some weird developmental strategy gone wrong?
One explanation may be their home park. The Twinkies have given up 52 of their 81 HRs-allowed at home, and their park ranks 2nd in the AL in average HRs per game. That’s odd, given its sheer size and the fact that Tony Blengino’s statcast park factors still peg it as a pitcher’s park. This reminded me of Safeco’s 2016, where (some) numbers called it a pitchers park, even as balls were flying out of it like it was 1999 at Coors Field. This year, Target Field and Comerica Park are similar, and it reminds me of my very first post on the topic midway through last year. The clubs have pitching staffs that are actively trying to court elevated/non-GB contact, thinking perhaps that a big park will bail them out or lower their BABIP. To a degree, it is, as fewer balls hit at a given speed will go for HRs there. But that’s cold comfort to the pitchers if they’re giving up really hard contact at economy-size rates. More on this to come, I think, as I can’t stop writing on this topic.
1: Heredia, LF
2: Valencia, 1B
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Motter, SS
7: Gamel, RF
8: Zunino, C
9: Dyson, CF
SP: PAXTON
King Felix returns to Tacoma tonight, leading the Rainiers against Aaron Laffey and the Reno Aces. Gametime’s 6:05, and you should go, if you’re not going to Safeco. Felix is a big reason I can’t get behind calls for the M’s to do a full-on rebuild (not that it’d do much), and Felix is still a prime source of baseballing joy for me. The idea that he might be back soon, and – dare to dream – effective again… it’s exciting. This team and this sport is just better when Felix is healthy and dealing, and while we’re now well into the decline phase of his career, I keep hoping that rehab and working with Tacoma’s coaches (the guys who figured out Paxton) can get him close to what he used to be. The odds are long, but after a month or two away, I’m just ready for Felix days again.
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7 Responses to “Game 59, Twins at Mariners – Paxton *and* Felix Day”
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Sounds like Felix laid an egg in Tacoma. 49 pitches in just 2 innings. Fastball 91-93 mph.
Nice 3-RBI hit by Valencia!
Of course, he hacked at an obvious ball four a minute before – so he’d BETTER get a hit…
If the reports are correct, Segura signed a 5 year extension for $70m with an option for a 6th season. This sounds like a very favorable price, so that’s good news! The 6th season would also be Cano’s 10th of his 10 year contract. Coincidence? I kinda doubt it.
And Seager!
Man, they are just clobbering the Twins… fun for us fans!
As much as I dislike the Yankee’s, I was really hoping they would of pulled out that game tonight. It’s all just wishful thinking but when there’s a glimmer of hope, gotta shoot for it.
Woo hoo! Mariners win again!
The ridiculous thing is – as hot as the Mariners have been, the Astros have been even hotter. Our guys have leapt all the way up to a tie for second in the AL West… but they’re still 13 back of the Astros, who just had their 11 game winning streak snapped tonight.
Today the Mariners confirmed what Mike posted earlier – Segura has been signed for 5 years / $70 million, with a $17 million option for year 6.
On the face of it, this seems like a good signing.