Game 66, Mariners at Twins
Christian Bergman vs. Kyle Gibson, 5:10pm
Last night’s game went well, though Gibson’s the guy who shut down the M’s over 6 IP 5 days ago, in what was easily his best start of the year. Remember that Gibson was struggling so badly, he was demoted to AAA after spending years as a promising middle-of-the-rotation guy for the Twins.
The game itself is a nice breather from obsessing about the draft, but until it starts, let’s continue obsessing about the draft. The M’s have made several picks today, including Gonzaga senior reliever Wyatt Mills in the 3rd round. As Mills wasn’t a top-200/500 prospect and because he’s a senior, it seems pretty obvious the M’s are trying to save a bit of money to give an overslot bonus to 2nd rounder Sam Carlson. Carlson was expected to go in the first round, and may still have designs on a first-round bonus. The gap between what he’d get in the 22-30 range and what his #55 slot would give him is roughly $1 million, and with the M’s total bonus pool only $6.7 M, you understand the desire to start saving money early.
MLB really tweaked how the slot values step down this year. Last year, the #1 pick slot was just over $9 million. This year, it was easily under $8 million. Other picks, including the middle of the first round, saw large increases – #17’s slot value is about $800,000 higher than it was last year. This kind of compressing of slot values seems like it’d have an impact on the M’s ability to go overslot and sign Carlson, but the more I look into it, it would’ve been just about the same last year – they’d need to take about 22% of the combined value of the top 2 picks to sign Carlson to a late-first-round bonus in either year. Still, with the M’s not having a competitive balance pick or another first round (how did the Astros get *four* picks yesterday?), and with slot values dropping fast, they need to start squirreling away some savings. JY’s got you covered with the draft summary post below – check the comments for JY’s pithy comments on each pick. I’ll try to summarize the first 10 picks some time soon.
Another day at Target Field, and another barrage of barreled-up balls flying around the spacious outfield. Let’s do that again, M’s. Gibson’s a sinkerballer with a solid change/slider to back it up. He was a big time prospect, especially since he had mid-90s velo at some point, and thus his solid but unspectacular numbers – until this year’s collapse- seem kind of disappointing. That’s unfair to Gibson, but he was someone who seemed on the verge of breaking out, and then went in reverse.
1: Gamel, LF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Dyson, CF
8: Zunino, C
9: Motter, SS
SP: Bergman
I should take this opportunity to say that I thought the M’s had a great first day of the 2017 draft. A polished college bat and a high-ceiling prep pitcher who no one expected to be there at 55 adds some balance and impact to a system that sorely needs both. I’ve seen some question Evan White’s swing-and-miss after some mediocre K:BB ratios in his first two years at UK, but I’m not too worried about it. The overall rate was low, and while he didn’t have huge walk totals, his bat-to-ball ability can’t be too bad if he put up the stats he did in a great college conference. Thanks to changes in college bats, it’s really hard to compare players across eras (meaning beyond 5-6 years ago), so another gap-hitting 1B like Justin Smoak’s college numbers look totally different. But I expect White to move fairly quickly, and I’m not concerned about the glut of corner players like DJ Peterson, Dan Vogelbach et al. The M’s got a very good player, and they didn’t let their own current 40-man enter into their decision.
Sam Carlson’s exciting, as a right hander with a great FB and what sounds like a very good change-up. I’m a sucker for a change, and it’s rare for a high schooler to have an offspeed pitch as his putaway pitch.
Crazy to think, but if they can actually have everyone in the lineup at one point, the M’s have one of the best offenses in baseball.
I was asking myself the same thing about Astros having so many picks. Nothing about this system makes sense.
ouch that escalated quickly… guess I can live life tonight instead of watch this mess.
Only need 7 and to hold off the Twins’ offense.
Final score tonight? 15-14.
Moving on….