Game 57, Rays at Mariners
Sam Gaviglio vs. Alex Cobb, 7:10pm
It’s always nice to come into a game after battering the opposing pitchers the night before. When the M’s are on, they can really hit, and that’s with Jean Segura and Mitch Haniger sidelined. Jake Odorizzi isn’t chopped liver, though tonight’s starter, Alex Cobb, is probably a bit better.
I’ve always thought of Cobb as an American version of Hisashi Iwakuma. His splitter doesn’t quite have Kuma’s movement, but he throws it a ton, and it plays well off of his four-seam and sinker. It doesn’t hurt that Cobb’s got a bit more oomph on his fastball, and it really doesn’t hurt that Cobb never really tried to throw a slider (forget the slider, Kuma. It’s unnecessary). Cobb’s been a contributor to the Rays since he came up in 2011, but he’s been critical off the field, too. Apparently, he’s the guy who taught Odorizzi his split-change.
The problem’s been staying on the field. Cobb’s never managed 30 starts in a year, and this’ll be his 17th since *2014*. He’s lost time after getting hit in the head by a line drive and suffering from vertigo for months. He’s missed time due to forearm tendinitis, and its big brother, Tommy John surgery. When he’s healthy, he has smaller than normal platoon splits due to that great splitter, and makes up for so-so K rates with very good GB rates and an ERA that’s been persistently below his FIP (sounds like Kuma).
Sam Gaviglio’s given the M’s some quality innings since being forced into action due to one of the myriad injuries to M’s starters. He throws what Brooks Baseball calls a four-seam fastball at 88 MPH, but what really operates like a sinker. If it IS a four-seamer, it’d have well over 2 standard deviations less vertical movement than average. He complements this with a hard slider/cutter at about 82-83, and an even firmer change-up at 84+. He’s given up a HR on the change, and he may need to dial the velo down, but it looks kind of interesting as far as third pitches go.
1: Gamel, RF
2: Heredia, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Motter, SS
8: Dyson, CF
9: Zunino, C
SP: Gaviglio
Dylan Unsworth, Pablo Lopez and Brandon Miller highlight the pitching probables today. The Rainiers were throttled by former teammate Casey Coleman in Fresno’s 4-1 win last night, and Inland Empire knocked around Nick Neidert a bit in a 7-2 win. It was Neidert’s first loss of the season, though he only gave up 3 runs on 7 hits and no walks in 5 IP. Robet Dugger and Danny Garcia had another successful piggy-back start in Clinton’s 4-1 win.
Game 56, Mariners at Rays (the Anti-Mariners)
Christian Bergman vs. Jake Odorizzi, 7:10pm
It’s our own fault. We tend to apply a label to a team and stick to it, even as personnel and front offices come and go. It was an article of faith among NON-sabermetrically inclined fans that stat nerds would automatically view a Billy Beane trade favorably, and a…I don’t know, Royals (in 2010-2014) trade unfavorably. These criticisms weren’t exactly wrong. I’ll admit I would look at an A’s move that didn’t seem to make any sense (Billy Butler?) and really try to consider alternative angles that maybe I’d missed at first. I wouldn’t linger as long on moves by others. All of this is to say that Tampa’s rapid rise to relevance gave them the patina of a smart organization, and thus not only were most of their moves seen as intriguing or at the very least justifiable, but *everything* they did – every blip in some rate stat, every 20-game rolling average – seemed to connote the evidence of a team-wide approach. And if Tampa was doing something, then maybe others should look into it.
In recent years, the Rays have been one of the most consistent teams in terms of the batted balls their pitchers give up. Year after year, the Rays and Angels would lead the league in fly ball percentage, and rank near the bottom in ground ball percentage. It made sense: the Rays couldn’t afford a do-it-all, traditional, 5-tool OF. They had a CF with one really exceptional tool, and they got pitchers that induced contact that got the most value from it. Since Kevin Kiermaier debuted in 2014, the Rays leapfrogged the Angels as MLB’s true fly-ball pitching staff, and since 2014, they’ve run a good BABIP despite some…less than solid infielders. Again, you can follow the logic here. The Rays have a great OF defense, so they get pitchers like Drew Smyly or tonight’s starter, Jake Odorizzi, who yield mostly flies. That could enable them to punt on IF defense a bit and add the offense that they gave up in the outfield. Kiermaier’s “only” a league average bat? Fine, get Brad Miller and Logan Forsyth in the infield.
Traditionally, the M’s have taken the opposite tack. Jack Zduriencik wanted bulk in his outfield, and he wanted OF who HIT fly balls, not necessarily guys who went around catching them. On the IF, whether by design or not, they’d assembled a largely solid group of defenders with Kyle Seager and Robbie Cano stabilizing things around a revolving door of shortstops (but the M’s always seemed to prioritize SS defense, hence why Brad Miller was hitting dingers in Tampa). The M’s too managed an above-average BABIP over multiple years, but they got there a very, very different way.
So, imagine my surprise when looking at the Rays ahead of this series to find that the Rays are now an essentially average defensive team, and if you were to break that defense into components, it’s actually been the INFIELD that’s carrying them. The team with the worst defensive efficiency on grounders last year now ranks 5th, while it’s the Mariners who struggle on grounders. Kevin Kiermaier hasn’t prevented Tampa’s DER on fly balls from falling below .900, ranking 12th in the league…behind Seattle, of all teams.
There are a lot of things to say about this. First, the M’s improvement since April on fly balls is jaw dropping. I have no idea if it’s luck, or if Ben Gamel’s a better defender than Mitch Haniger (I wouldn’t care much if he was, of course), but I think at this point the scale of it seems to indicate that Jarrod Dyson is just way, way better than Leonys Martin. Second, while the Mariners fly ball percentage isn’t sky high (it’s above average, though), the fact remains that the M’s have had more fly ball *opportunities* than any team except Detroit. The reason is that no pitching staff produces balls in play – of all kinds – than the M’s. This is what happens when your rotation consists of Sam Gaviglio, Christian Bergman, Ryan Whalen, Yovani Gallardo, Chris Heston, etc. The Rays aren’t a strikeout staff either, but they’re much better in terms of the “Control the Zone” measures like K% and K-BB%. So the M’s are giving Dyson and Heredia more opportunities – why are the Rays suddenly moving away from watching Kiermaier run down gappers?
The answer has to do with another big trend that we’ve been watching this year: the drop in fastballs. I mentioned it in April after watching the Astros confound the M’s with a blizzard of curves and sliders, and at that point, the Astros led the league in the percentage of non-fastballs thrown. We’ve obviously got a lot more data at this point, and while the Astros percentage of bendy stuff is still high, they’ve been passed. Now, it’s the Yankees in the lead at over 50% non-fastballs. After a sizable gap, we get to second place, where we find Tampa. Here’s where it’s interesting, though. If we look at the same table, but for 2016, many of the same teams are near the top. The Yankees ranked 2nd last year, and the Angels (3rd this year) were 1st. Where’s Tampa? They ranked 20th. This is a big, big move. They’ve increased their non-FB usage by ten percentage points. In a year. (The M’s dropped from 2016-2017, because somehow they must always move in opposite direction to the Rays).
The upshot of all of these breaking balls and change-ups is that the Rays have induced more contact on breaking balls than any team except the Yankees, and more grounders on non-FBS than ANYONE – by a mile. Colorado’s induced nearly *200 more* grounders on fastballs, but Tampa’s ahead on non-FB grounders by about 150. Add it up, and the Rays have given up much lower production on grounders than just about anyone (although, oddly, they’re a spot behind Colorado). And that’s with a double-play tandem of Tim Beckham and Brad Miller.
The Rays’ HRs-allowed or HR/9 rate has dropped this year, and I’m assuming the shift away from fastballs has something to do with that. Jake Odorizzi clearly got the memo, as – just like his team as a whole – his FB% has dropped by ten percentage points over last year. The problem is that the fastballs that he DOES throw are getting hit much harder. The primary beneficiary of his shift in pitch mix has been his splitter, which is a very good pitch, but which yielded 7 HRs and a .440 SLG%-against last year. This year, throwing it much more, he’s given up just 1 and his SLG%-against is much lower. His SLG%-against on his four-seamer, though, has increased by 100 points. If you’re looking for reasons he’s sporting a career high HR and HR/FB rate, there you go.
1: Gamel, RF
2: Heredia, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Motter, SS
8: Dyson, CF
9: Zunino, C
SP: Bergman (please be GOOD-Bergman, and not overmatched-Bergman tonight)
Damn. Just when the M’s get James Paxton back, Jean Segura heads back to the DL with an ankle injury.
Nick Neidert, Dylan Unsworth and Chase DeJong take the mound in the minors tonight, with Unsworth matching up with Rangers prospect Yohander Mendez again.
Tacoma jumped on Astros prospect Francis Martes, racing out to a 7-1 lead, but they couldn’t hold it in a disappointing 12-9 loss. Leonys Martin homered. Chuck Taylor continues to subject Texas League pitching to abject cruelty, hitting a HR in Midland. Nathan Bannister was sharp for Modesto in a 2-1, late-inning loss, while Ljay Newsome wasn’t in Clinton’s 9-1 loss to Beloit.
Game 55, Rockies at Mariners
Yovani Gallardo vs. Kyle Freeland, 12:40pm
Early game today, as the M’s try to run their current winning streak to 5, and continue their mastery of a Rockies pitching staff that came in with some decent numbers.
As I mentioned before, the Rockies as a team showed strong GB tendencies even as they used four-seam fastballs more than other teams. They’re not great at strikeouts or walks, which seems like it’d spell doom given their offense-inflating home park. Instead, they’ve been contact managers, as the list of low exit velocity starters is peppered with Colorado hurlers.
That’s true again with today’s starter, Kyle Freeland. He’s perhaps the best true GB guy, even more so than Tyler Chatwood, whom he resembles in certain ways. Filtering pitchers who’ve given up 150 balls in play (to remove relievers and spot starters), Freeland ranks 12th in lowest average exit velo, a few spots better than Chatwood, and 9 spots behind exit velo ace Tyler Anderson. His launch angle speaks to his ground balling ways, as his average of 0.9 degrees ranks 5th in MLB, one spot ahead of Chatwood. Freeland’s a lefty, unlike Chatwood, but his arm slot’s similar, and Freeland releases the ball way out towards first base, giving batters a different angle. He throws a four-seam as well as a sinker, throwing the former much more often to lefties and the latter to righties. The sinker is a true, true ground ball weapon, whereas the four-seamer is kind of a boring, plain vanilla sort of pitch. This is why he has some of the widest batted ball platoon splits I’ve seen. His GB% against righties is about 18 percentage points higher than it is against lefties.
A sinker-slider guy (he throws a harder cutter and a true slider, but his breaking balls are all in the slider family, and frankly, not terribly well differentiated) should have big platoon splits, and he kind of does. His K-BB% against righties is 1% – he walks essentially as many righties as he K’s. Against lefties, he’s actually a strikeout guy, with a 25% K rate and a 16%+ K-BB% rate. But his FIP this year 1.3 runs HIGHER against *lefties* and those batted ball splits show why. Lefties actually hit HRs against him, because they’re the ones that elevate the ball. Righties don’t, because they can’t. I’m not saying that his true-talent splits mean that Servais should load up with lefties. Rather, this isn’t a guy you need to worry too much about the handedness of the batter. In general, the M’s don’t, because it’s not like they’re going to sit Cano or Seager just because they’re facing a lefty. Sometimes, when going against a Chris Sale, you go into the game knowing that some of their best hitters are at a disadvantage. I’m not feeling that this time. It helps that Freeland’s fairly similar to some of the guys that came in with solid results and whom the M’s were able to touch up (looking at you, Antonio Senzatela).
1: Segura, SS
2: Valencia, 1B
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Heredia, CF
7: Motter, LF
8: Gamel, RF
9: Ruiz, C
SP: Gallardo
For the M’s, this is their righty-heavy line-up, but enh, they’ve got 3 lefties, and at this point, Heredia’s probably earned a start over Dyson when a lefty’s on the hill.
Rob Whalen and Ljay Newsome highlight the pitching probables in the system tonight. Whalen faces off with Astros’ prospect Francis Martes down in Fresno.
Big performances from the abbreviated schedule yesterday include Chuck Taylor’s three hits- he’s now got a slash line of .386/.481/.538 – and Tyler Marlette, who hit his 5th HR. Reggie McClain’s 6 innings of 1-run ball (4Ks, 0 BBs) was the best pitching performance, and pushed his line to 7-2 with a 2.60 ERA and 55:18 K:BB ratio in 65 2/3 IP in a very offense-heavy league.