Game 86, Angels at Mariners – Last, Best Hope for Anaheim
Wade LeBlanc vs. Andrew Heaney, 7:10pm
The Angels get Shohei Ohtani back tonight, but they’re in free-fall since he went down with an arm injury, and find themselves 11 games behind the M’s in the wildcard race. He’s not ready to pitch yet, but the Angels will take his bat; their offense has dropped off markedly since he went down. At the end of this series, the Angels could be just about out of it, which is striking to say in the earliest days of July, but, seriously, look at the wildcard playoff odds chart:
The Angels hit just shy of 50% in late May, but they’ve fallen to under *3%* today. By the weekend, they could be near zero. At this point, the A’s are clearly the M’s biggest rival for a playoff spot, which is quite amazing given the Angels’ start. Now, the M’s need to try and keep the Angels from crawling off the deck and jumping back into the race. Tonight, they hand the ball to Wade LeBlanc, a name not exactly associated with the killer instinct required for this particular job. No matter.
Angels starter Andrew Heaney looked like Anaheim’s version of Marco Gonzales when we last saw him. He’d been injured – including a TJ surgery – and had finally come back with his command at full-strength. After a rough start or two in April, he settled in and seemed to be turning a corner, even tossing a complete game 1-hitter against Kansas City (though *everyone* seems to be doing that these days). But he got knocked out before making it out of the 4th IP, and now he’s coming off another clunker against Boston. This is a pitcher the M’s have hit well, and a team they’ve dominated. The only thing standing in their way is an Angels line-up that’s slumping. LeBlanc’s coming off two less-than-stellar outings of his own, so it’ll be interesting to see if he’s worked on anything with Mel Stottlemeyer Jr. recently. [Edit] I guess he HAS worked on something. The M’s just announced that they’ve extended LeBlanc through 2019, with options for 2020-2022.
1: Gordon, 2B
2: Segura, SS
3: Haniger, RF
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Healy, 1B
7: Span, LF
8: Zunino, C
9: Heredia, CF
SP: LeBlanc
As mentioned in yesterday’s post about the J2 period and the M’s inking SS Noelvi Marte to a $1.55 M deal, the M’s would be signing other prospects a bit less heralded as well. Today, Ryan Divish passes on the names of eight of them. I’m not going to pretend to know anything about them, but I will note that one of them is named Asdrubal Bueno, and I’m thrilled to have another Asdrubal in the org. Years ago, I was fond of the incongruity of seeing a few prospects – including a precocious SS for the M’s – named after a Carthaginian general NOT named Hannibal. I have no idea how this interest in North African history alighted on parents in Venezuela, but I approve. Hopefully, Asdrubal Bueno will get to play with M’s DSL-affiliate 2B Osiris Castillo and then they’ll have ancient North Africa locked down.*
Speaking of prospects, M’s 2nd-rounder in 2017 Sam Carlson had Tommy John surgery a few days ago. Seems like it went well, and honestly, it’s seemed like this announcement was coming for a while. He pitched 2 innings in the AZL last year, and was then shut down. When he didn’t appear on Everett’s roster, this seemed like a foregone conclusion. Ah well. Get well soon, Sam!
It’s International Signing Day
It’s July 2nd, the beginning of the big international free agent signing period, wherein fans dream of the next Vlad Guerrero Jr., Ronald Acuña, or Juan Soto, and try not to think too hard about the bizarre and often lawless process that leads up to their signing. It’s a day that changes lives and brings in some of the biggest talents in the game, but because teams are dealing with 16-17 year olds, that talent is even harder to project that in the June amateur draft.
It’s been quite a while, but at one point, international free agent signings were the lifeblood of the Mariners player development system. With Bob Engle at the helm of their international group, the M’s signed Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Rafael Soriano, and some chunky kid out of Venezuela named Felix Hernandez. There were role players, too, and organizational depth. They were active in Australia (Ryan Rowland-Smith and Travis Blackley), East Asia, and especially Venezuela, and in the old pre-bonus pool world, they were always big players for top international talent.
And then, seemingly without warning, it all started to dry up. Not that the M’s stopped signing big-ticket players – they didn’t. It’s just that they stopped making an impact in the minors, let alone on the big club. After whiffing on the likes of Esteilon/Martin Peguero and Guillermo Pimentel, Bob Engle was shown the door. I think the perception’s been that they pulled way back in international signings, but that’s not really true: they’ve signed at least one of the top 20 guys most years since Engle left in 2012, including Hersin Martinez, Luiz Gohara, Carlos Vargas, Brayan Hernandez, Juan Querecuto, and continuing with top-10 guy Julio Rodriguez last year. They’re by no means as active as the Yankees or Astros, and haven’t attempted a big blow-past-the-budget-in-one-year move the way New York and Atlanta have done, signing a team’s worth of prospects all at once. While they haven’t seriously pursued the top echelon players like Guerrero Jr., Kevin Maitan, Luis Robert, but they’ve continued to make $1 M+ signings most years.
But while they’ve still signed guys, they haven’t had a big-time signing make the high minors. To be fair, a lot of this is due to the fact that Jerry Dipoto’s aggressively shopped the international signings when making minor trades. Adam Lind came to Seattle in exchange for three international pitchers, while Vargas went to the Rays in the Drew Smyly deal. Hernandez and Pablo Lopez* went to Miami for David Phelps. The real development problems predate Dipoto, but as with other players, I’m curious to see if the new development team might get more out of these players if any of them stick around long enough to tell.
In Anaheim, Jerry Dipoto and crew were bit players on the international market. They were one of the clubs that spent the least, and when you’re getting *outspent* by the Oakland A’s, it’s pretty clear that it’s not an area of focus. Like with the M’s, that shift was a 180 degree turn from prior front offices, where the Angels were consistently turning up talent like Erick Aybar, Ervin Santana, and a young SS named Jean Segura. But their international director was being investigated by the FBI (again, don’t look too closely at the J2 world) and was then fired by Dipoto’s predecessor, and Jerry used talent like Segura to bolster the big league roster, as in his trade for Zack Greinke.
That changed a bit in 2014-15 when, instead of throwing money at a 16-year old in the DR, Dipoto and the Angels spent $8 M to sign Cuban IF Roberto Baldoquin, thinking the soon-to-be-21 year old would move quickly. They started him in High A and watched as he struggled to a miserable, powerless line in 2015, and while he’s been better this year, the signing’s still a sore point with Angels fans.
That high profile miss hasn’t led Dipoto to pull out of the international market as GM in Seattle. In fact, the M’s have been more active this past year, signing an Aussie pitcher for the first time in years, and a Taiwanese lefty last year – spending a portion of the bonus pool surplus they’d built up.** Today, they’ve signed another top-10 talent, Dominican SS Noelvi Marte, for $1.55 M. Marte sounds like a bat-first/power-hitting infielder who many think may move to 3B, but whose bat profiles there quite well. Like last year’s top prize, Julio Rodriguez (one of the M’s top 5 prospects), if he sticks around, he could be an impact player one day. But to do that, the M’s player development group is going to need to show what they can do. This is insanely difficult; you’re taking teenagers and somewhat quickly throwing them into a completely different culture, with different foods, a different language, and different training methods.
It’s still early to tell how much Dipoto’s drafts will transform the talent pipeline, but it’s a good sign that the M’s are still active internationally. We still don’t really know if the problems that may have contributed to the struggles of guys like Pimentel and Peguero have been fixed, but I’m still glad that the M’s are bringing in more talent to a system that could use some. While the biggest names in the 2018-19 signing period will come off the board soon, the M’s will presumably continue to find additional players throughout the year (as they did last month).
To get a look at video of Marte and to get a bit of a scouting report, check out this post at LL. To follow the signings, Baseball America and MLB.com both have trackers. The latter’s free. Cuban OF Victor Victor Mesa is generally seen as the prize of the year, not only because of his prodigious talent, but because he’s 21, and much more of a known commodity. No word where he’ll sign at this point.
* Lopez always seemed like a great kid, and an easy guy to root for, so congrats to him for getting a win in his big league debut the other day.
** They used some of it to acquire PCL All Star Shawn Armstrong in a deal with Cleveland, too. Bonus pool slots – like competitive balance picks – are tradeable commodities.
Game 85, Royals at Mariners
James Paxton vs. Brad Keller, 1:10pm
Happy Maple Day.
It’s a strange thing to think about now, with the M’s 22 over .500 and seemingly coasting to a wild card spot, but I’ve been thinking about the 2010 M’s a bit recently. These musings haven’t been occasioned by the M’s themselves, of course. This current iteration is almost a polar opposite. Instead, it’s been watching the dregs of the league in back-to-back series – the Orioles and now the Royals – that bring you back to that utterly hopeless frame of mind.
The M’s haven’t blown their downtrodden opponents out. They’ve been fairly closely-fought games by and large. The problem is that the outcome’s felt preordained, just a matter of filling in the details. And the reason for *that* is simply that these teams don’t have a full complement of major league players. They can hang around if things go right, as we saw with Mike Moustakas’ 3-run shot in the first. But pretty quickly, starter Jason Hammel found himself on the ropes, which led Mike Salk to ask a fundamental question:
Do the Royals have any other pitchers? Yikes.
— Mike Salk, 710 ESPN (@TheMikeSalk) July 1, 2018
I mean, yes. The answer is obviously yes. But put yourself in the manager’s shoes. You can leave in your bad but regular bad starting pitcher, or you can turn to Burch Smith or Brian Flynn or someone *even worse*. Brandon Maurer has been utterly lost this season, but he might be a better option than whoever the Royals long man is. Take the worst bullpen in MLB, and then find the worst single member of it. Does that change how quick your hook might be with your scuffling starter?
The 2010 M’s real problem wasn’t their bullpen or their pitching in general, but it brought up those same awful choices. Love to pinch hit for Rob Johnson here…except that Adam Moore’s technically been worse. Jack or Josh Wilson in this late-game spot with two on? I dunno, pinch hit a plainly not-ready-for-this Matt Tuiasosopo? Call up Chris Woodward? IS there a procedure to just concede an inning? Asking for a friend.
At the time, it felt hopeless, but the process of following them every day gave us a unique insight into their historic ineptitude. Would it be plainly visible to opposing fans? Sure, the stats were available, and you could see some terrible batting averages and OBPs, but could they SEE it; could they understand what they were looking at over the course of a three game series? After watching Baltimore and now Kansas City, I think I have my answer.
Today, the Royals start Rule 5 pick Brad Keller, just to heighten the 2010 M’s feel of it all. Kanekoa Texeira, oops, I mean Keller, has done fairly well by throwing a mix of fastballs – both a straight, cutter-like four-seamer and a sinker. Combining the two, he’s throwing 65-75% fastballs on the year. He’s got above-average velocity on them, sitting in the mid-90s, but given the nature of the pitches, he’s not going to rack up strikeouts. In the early part of the year, he threw strikes and balanced a lack of K’s with a lack of walks. Over time, that control’s waned a bit, but he’s been OK thanks to a lack of HRs. He’s posting a 60% GB rate, but that’s not due purely to his sinker – he throws the 4-seamer more often, but while the GB rate’s a bit higher on the sinker, they’re both remarkably similar.
The M’s haven’t fared quite as well against ground ballers this year, but that doesn’t seem to matter. Game after game sees a player who’s been completely cold have a huge game or at least a huge at-bat to lift the club. Last night it was Ryon Healy, who’d been *terrible* for the past few weeks. Dee Gordon hadn’t been great, but helped the M’s get a win in Baltimore, and even Austin Romine – LITERALLY Austin Romine – has shown signs of life when he filled in for Jean Segura. As I said, it’s essentially as far from the experience of watching the 2010 M’s as possible.
1: Gordon, 2B
2: Segura, SS
3: Haniger, RF
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Healy, 1B
7: Gamel, LF
8: Zunino, C
9: Heredia, CF
SP: PAXTON wooooo
Williams Perez gets the start for Tacoma tonight as they host Reno. Chase de Jong is pitching for Arkansas against San Antonio, and Ljay Newsome takes the hill for Modesto. Clinton got rained out, and Everett’s playing a double-header tonight in Eugene after they couldn’t use the park in Eugene last night due to a Grateful Dead concert.