Game 60, Angels at Mariners
Mike Leake vs. Tyler Skaggs, 7:10pm
It’s a gorgeous Friday in the Northwest, it’s light out until quite late. It’s the perfect night for a ball game, but Tacoma’s out of town, and if I’m honest, I’d go to Safeco because it’s an awesome – if pricey – bar. Watching vets like Leake who’ve (fairly) chafed at being part of this step back get rocked isn’t entertaining, and while Shed Long and Seattle’s big boy, Dan Vogelbach, is still drawing walks, he’s in a tailspin, too. I’ll go to Safeco, I’m not swearing anything off. I’ve been with them through worse than this. But I think it’s fair to acknowledge that watching this rotation right now has the feel of watching the 2010 M’s attempt to hit.
Yesterday, the M’s most talented hurler, Yusei Kikuchi, got battered by a so-so Angels line-up missing Andrelton Simmons. In 3 1/3, he gave up 10 hits and struck out nobody. For this team, he throws quite fast at 93.5 MPH, but despite a deceptive delivery, hitters are teeing off on his fastball. The Angels knocked two HRs off the pitch, bringing his season total to eight, and giving him a .308 BA-against on heaters, with a .567 SLG%. There’s no reason for that. Unlike some other starters, Kikuchi has stuff, and while his FB doesn’t have impressive movement, the angle, deception, and speed of it are MLB-quality.
Mike Leake has the 2nd-slowest sinker in the league (among those who’ve thrown at least 200 of them), and it’s trending downward. Batters have an average of…I keep checking this to make sure I’m not seeing things… .490 off of Leake’s primary fastball this year. They are slugging 1.078 against the pitch. His usage of it is also trending downward, as you’d expect, but Leake’s a sinkerball guy. That’s been his bread and butter since college, and while his slider’s good, he’s got to get to it. It’s easy to say that 88 MPH is useless in this day and age, but the ONE guy with a slower sinker is Kyle Hendricks, who’s having a fine year, his sixth in a row. You *can* pitch with low velo; it’s hard, and you need great command and a deep arsenal, but at least on paper, Leake seems to check the boxes. But watch him pitch right now, and you wonder how long the M’s can keep sending him to the wolves.
The M’s say all the right things about using data to help pitchers maximize their strengths and minimize their weaknesses. I think they’re trying to do those things. But something’s clearly, clearly gone awry here. Everyone’s velocity seems to be down, and their average fastball’s among the least effective (both four-seam and sinker) in the game. I get why the M’s may want to focus on low-spin pitcher or not chase highlight-reel velocity. I get why, aside from Kikuchi, they wanted to stick with in-house options in a step-back year. But you still have an obligation to help them succeed, and at the moment, there’s very little evidence of that happening. The odds of them getting much for Leake are essentially nil, and with Gonzales scuffling (and with his own velo drop to puzzle over), even the M’s titular ace might not return enough to make them M’s consider it.
Things are never quite as dark as they seem in the midst of a long losing streak, but it’s becoming more and more clear that the entire coaching re-think on the pitching side has not produced the desired results. That could change, but unless it does, and does soon, it sets a troubling trend. The M’s know what they want to do, and don’t know how to do it, or who can help them do it.
1: Smith, CF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Encarnacion, DH
4: Santana, LF
5: Seager, 3B
6: Beckham, 2B
7: Bruce, 1B
8: Murphy, C
9: Moore, SS
SP: Leake
18 year old Robert Perez continues his hot start as an emergency fill-in for Tacoma. Just promoted from the DSL to make his stateside debut, he had 3 more hits in Tacoma’s double header sweep last night. It’s just 25 PAs, but his line is now .364/.440/.545.
So You Still Want Me to Write About the 2019 Draft
There are surely perils to having one’s team outperform the previous year. One is the inevitable step back, but when coupled with the idea that you’re not looking at top flight draft pick coming in either, it can make for a depressing midseason. But there are good bits of news? I mean, we probably won’t be drafting a college reliever like we did the last time we were in such a position, and we have three day one picks, which is 50% more than we usually have! WOW! Sure, it’s a down year, but what better way to feel like things are changing and in motion than adding 30+ names to the system after calling out 40+?
What times have they decided on for this year?
We’ll be starting Day 1 (Rounds 1 / 2 + Competitive Balances + Compensations) at 4 pm local time on Monday, June 3rd. From there, Day Two (Rounds 3 – 10) begins on Tuesday the 4th at 11 am, then we do the conference call on Day Three from 10 am until question marks. It proves a great time to spike your coffee and let it all happen. All of these are best found online through MLB.com because try as they might, baseball draft coverage doesn’t make for sexy programming in the same way that the NFL or NBA might.
What selections do we have?
The hometown nine won’t be on the board until #20, then will have a long wait until they pick #59 overall in the second round and a shorter wait to the #76 we picked up from the Indians in the Santana / Encarnacion trade. That will do it for day one. Day two, our selections start at #97, then #126 because a pick got forfeited, and then in intervals of thirty thereafter.
What sense do we have from the front office?
Other than the excitement involved in “yeah! new toys!”, and presumably, “yeah! trade fodder!”, I was listening to The Wheelhouse, ep. 50 recently for insight. I definitely select for minor league materials and in the process picked up an interesting bit of the team’s scouting philosophy, which helps to explain the Logan Gilbert pick last year. Basically, I would describe them as being less volatile in their methodology and preferring to take a longer view into consideration. So, unless there’s a lot to back up a fast-riser, they won’t take one just because he’s done something lately, and neither will they eschew the guy who has fallen in esteem unless they can point to why. It seems rather basic, if not obvious, but it’s not a philosophy we’ve seen shared by previous front offices who preferred things like position switches, transfers, etc. There are merits to it, as well as drawbacks, I imagine, since you’re operating with a higher level of inertia. I don’t know on the whole if their team that finds weird stuff like “Brennan’s change-up” or “Fraley’s swing change” also spills over into the amateur scouting, but I would hope it does.
Having officially stepped back, I might also expect to see them take shots at prospects with longer development windows. This was initially what they were going to do last year, but then there was a run on high school players and suddenly the best players on their own boards were college types and so they loaded up there again. If we don’t do much of that on days one and two, the Mariners have recently had a pretty good sense for what high schoolers may be signable and were able to save money in rounds 1-10 to go grab “tougher sign” prep pitchers like Damon Casetta-Stubbs in the eleventh round and Holden Laws in the sixteenth. It’s enough of a pattern to where I’d expect to see it happen again unless we’re really breaking the bank to sign young guys earlier on.
What is the larger prediction of the scouting outlets?
This year, we seem to have a divided group of opinions. Some have all but typed us as a college-favoring organization and have tied us to names like Texas Tech 3B Josh Jung and Elon RHP George Kirby, maybe Clemson SS Logan Davidson, who has fascinating tools but is without a tight track record. Others want to link us to the prep shortstop ranks and see a selection like Anthony Volpe (NJ), Nasim Nunez (GA), Gunnar Henderson (AL), or Brooks Lee (CA). Both sound probable although I lean a little towards the latter as seeming more likely, since it fits the MO and there may yet be good prep infielders available. I’d rather go with a longer range project than thinking we’re going to compete so soon, though Davidson could split the difference there. That being said, as with every sport, draft stuff gets weird in a hurry and pick #20 is a bit far out for me to feel comfortable predicting anything all.
While there always ends up being some amount of hairsplitting– Dipoto cited numerically ranking all the players on their board and I DO NOT ENVY THEM– one sense that has emerged is that there won’t be a huge difference in talent from if you’re selecting in the early teens or down at twenty where we are, which is some solace to be taken. Available “impact bats” should be gone by pick ten or so. One overall question is where pitching will start to be selected as it’s regarded as an especially shallow college class. Thus, it will be interesting to see who blinks first and takes that college pitcher, as there’s a risk of artificially inflated value as well as “panic” spreading through draft rooms as teams try to scoop up what little depth there is. A potential side effect could be a run on players like Oregon’s Kenyon Yovan, a former prep pick of the Mariners who has been off the mound much of the season due to hand injury. I could see the team pursuing a few guys with high potential but present non-serious injuries rather than taking a healthier organizational guy. It’s another variable we’re playing with.
What local angles do we have to work with?
The likely number one overall pick will be catcher Adley Rutschman, who the Mariners picked out of high school three years ago in the 40th round, back when he was an Oregon prep kid and signed on to be both kicker for the Beavers football team and their starting catcher. His stock exploded last season and he’s now regarded as one of the best backstop prospects in years as well as a consensus 1/1. Locally, we also have Lakeside outfielder Corbin Carroll being set up as perhaps the highest draft pick in state history. He’s a plus defensive center fielder with a good sense of the strike zone, though he’s been up and down in esteem as some wonder how much power he has and DINGERS.
You don’t want to take the best of each group and type solely based on that, but it does work as being representative in this case. The Oregon class this year is almost entirely college players coming out of the big two schools, so pull up some NCAA stats and see what you like. The Washington class is more of a mix of prep players and college players, with the UW battery of C Nick Kahle and RHP Josh Burgmann being among the more interesting NCAA types. The wild card with the prep ranks is that there are a fair number of fancier college commitments. Carroll is set up to go to UCLA, yet the consensus second-best prep in OF Joshua Mears has a commitment to Purdue, and further down the listings you’ll see places like Vandy and Stanford associated. The addition of draft pools to the amateur calculus has made it trickier to buy out major college commitments, so anyone who pursues such players better know what they’re up to.
What’s the current state of system depth with the caveat that we shouldn’t be addressing it unless those circles overlap on the Venn?
Trades have significantly bolstered our ranks in terms of starting pitching and outfield depth. If you’ve been paying attention this season, nearly all of the outfields of the full-season affiliates are interesting in some way. We’re really, really lacking in interesting infield depth outside of the I-5 commuting duo of Shed Long and J.P. Crawford, and current top pick discussions would probably help with that in some small way. Catching is also a place we could stand to improve a little although the 2018 class has really added to the depth there. I would probably rank the overall charts as Outfield > Starting / Relief Pitching > Catching > Infield, but would probably be more inclined to add pitchers than catchers for reasons obvious to everyone.
What are you looking forward to from the draft?
Drafting a future Mariner.
Game 58, Rangers at Mariners
Wade LeBlanc vs. Jose Leclerc/Drew Smyly, 12:40pm
It’s a day game on getaway day, as the M’s try to put the sour taste of last night, last month, all of…this behind them. The worst thing about last night’s 11-4 loss wasn’t the huge, early deficit or the costly error that gifted the Rangers their first two runs. Rather, it was the loss of JP Crawford, who rolled his ankle getting back to 3rd after a bizarre play on a fielder’s choice. Crawford had 2 hits and has been better at the plate after seeming to leave his patience in Tacoma for a week or two. The Ks are still a concern, but he’s showing he can be a legitimate MLB shortstop, which would be nice. He’ll head to the IL as there’s no reason he or anyone else should be playing through pain in this go-nowhere season. Dylan Moore’s been recalled to take his spot on the active roster.
The pitching continues to disappoint, as Marco gave up 8 runs (6 earned) through 4, and then the bullpen’s sole consistent performer, Brandon Brennan, scuffled and gave up a moonshot to Ronald Guzman. Gonzales slide has been the perfect microcosm of the M’s staff: their ERA is over 6 in May, and that clearly understates the problem. They’ve given up 21 unearned runs this month, and have a HR/9 over 2. This is not solely their fault of course, but the problems that seemed more limited in April have spread to the entire group. The bullpen’s always been a mess, but the starters have now lost the plot as well. They’ve been replacement level as a group in May, and you could make a straight-faced argument that Tommy Milone is their #2 starter at the moment. They are not *this* bad. This is a mediocre group with bad luck. But my goodness, are they rough to watch on a day-in, day-out basis. I know it’s frustrating for the players, as we heard in Matt Calkins’ column in the Times, but it’s pretty unpleasant for the fans, too.
That’s too bad, because the club really put a lot of effort into improving their coaching at the big league level. I harp on this all the time, but this is a league in which players take sudden leaps in performance rather often. Look at Derek Dietrich in Cincinnati, for example, or Lucas Giolito in Chicago, or Jake Odorizzi in Minnesota, or Gio Urshela in New York. Using data and cutting edge pedagogy or whatever the hell they do, teams are getting much more out of players than their prior record would’ve predicted was possible. The M’s know this, and have worked to improve how they do this, and have hired people from a variety of backgrounds to improve their work in this area. And none of it seems to be working. Sure, Dan Vogelbach’s hitting well, but after that first month, the team as a whole has faltered on both sides of the ball. They’ve made interesting, not business-as-usual hires, and things don’t seem to change.
To be clear: I’m not blaming any of the coaches. The team isn’t very good, which is why even the front office isn’t trying to sell the club as a contender. But it’s concerning when the FO identifies coaching at the big league level to be a key, and they have, going way back to the hiring of Scott Servais as manager, to see them make so little headway at it. Maybe it’s bubbling up under the surface, and maybe, I dunno, Shed Long’s going to go on a tear here real soon, but something isn’t working in the way information moves from baseball ops or field staff to coaches to players, and that issue has persisted despite changes in field staff and coaches and players. I have no idea how to fix it, but I worry that the FO doesn’t, either. And if they don’t, then the whole step-back thing is doomed.
Hey, cool, Mariners baseball comin’ at ya, let’s have fun and watch a ball game and not worry so damn much.
1: Smith, CF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Vogelbach, DH
4: Encarnacion, 1B
5: Santana, LF
6: Seager, 3B
7: Beckham, SS
8: Murphy, C
9: Long, 2B
SP: LeBlanc
Andrew Moore, Jon Niese, and Austin Hutchison start for the M’s affiliates today, with Moore looking to build on a great first start back in the M’s org back on May 23rd.
Game 57, Rangers at Mariners
Marco Gonzales vs. Jesse Chavez/Adrian Sampson, 7:10pm
Sorry for the interruption in posting, but I was enjoying a wonderful Memorial Day weekend at Lake Quinault and wandering around the rain forest. It takes one’s mind off of the current state of the M’s, and it was a wonderful break from cataloguing this current slide. Luckily, the even ENDED that slide by winning last night as I came back to town from the Olympia Peninsula. I even find I miss baseball when I unplug from it for a few days, which I think is a good sign.
That’s not to say all will be rosier from here on out. Today, the Astros host the Cubs, and will give recent call-up Corbin Martin his 4th big league start. Behind him is what can charitably be described as a spring training line-up. This post at Fangraphs details how good the Astros line-up is even if you somehow benched their best players. Take away their top 2, both of whom are MVP candidates, and they’re still absurd. They only start to look human when you remove 6-7 starters. As if to prove the point, that’s exactly what the Astros are doing tonight. Carlos Correa, George Springer, Jose Altuve, Robinson Chirinos all start on the bench. Alex Bregman will DH, with Yuli Gurriel at 3B and Tony Kemp at 2B (his 5th-ever start there). 28-year old SS Jack Mayfield makes his MLB debut, and C Garrett Stubbs will make his debut as well. Michael Brantley’s still in, but this looks and feels like a September roster call-up game, and why not? The Astros’ playoff odds are essentially 100% now, and it’s still May. Even the A’s recent hot streak can’t really change the math here: the Astros are simply way better than this division, with the Rangers and M’s stepping back, and the Angels stepping all over themselves. I know the M’s are seriously trying to compete right now, but I think this sums up the state of the division pretty well.
Marco Gonzales had a solid start last time out against these Rangers, but lost to the same pairing of Rangers hurlers, Jesse Chavez and Adrian Sampson. The Rangers seem like a good match-up for Marco, given that they have a few all-or-nothing hitters who may be susceptible to a change-of-speeds game, but then you look and see the Rangers are actually the MOST successful team against change-ups. Last time out, he threw a bunch of sinkers, and the pitch worked very well for him, even as the Rangers hit his change. I’ve said it before, but it’s still odd that Gonzales’ change isn’t more effective. It looks like it should be, but the fact that it’s only average at best isn’t new. The development/rebirth of his cutter has been vital to his success, particularly now, as his velocity remains in the high-80s.
I don’t know why Adrian Sampson was so successful against Seattle, throwing 42 fastballs at them, and walking away with a win. We’ll see if playing in Safeco helps the bats; despite his success the other day, batters are slugging over .600 against Sampson’s FB in his career.
1: Smith, CF
2: Seager, 3B
3: Encarnacion, 1B
4: Vogelbach, DH
5: Santana, LF
6: Narvaez, C
7: Bruce, RF
8: Crawford, SS
9: Long, 2B
SP: Gonzales
Ljay Newsome has had an amazing season, and leads all of MiLB in Ks. He’s generally toyed with the Cal League, but even he has one weakness: the Stockton Ports. After a shellacking last night, Newsome’s given up 12 runs in 5 2/3 IP against Stockton. That means he’s given up 10 total runs in 55 1/3 IP. He has an ERA of 19 against Stockton, and an ERA of 1.30 against everyone else. 15 hits in 5 2/3 vs. Stockton, and just 41 hits in 55 1/3 against the rest of the league. Weird.
Justus Sheffield was pretty solid in a loss to Salt Lake, giving up 2 HRs, but only 1 walk vs. 6 Ks in a 5-0 loss. Today, Tacoma got their revenge on getaway day, beating the Bees 13-5. Ian Miller homered, and the R’s DH Roberto Perez drew 2 walks. That’s notable, as he’s just 18, and making his stateside debut this week. He’s off to a good start, getting 5 hits in 17 ABs, with 2 2Bs and a 3B. The walks push his OBP to .368. It’s absurdly early, and he’s more likely to finish the year with Everett or even the AZL M’s, but it’s interesting to see the M’s use DSL youngsters to fill in at Tacoma the way they have.
Game 54, Mariners at Athletics
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Mike Fiers, 1:07pm
Kyle Seager’s back. Seager was activated off the 60-day IL, and Dylan Moore’s been optioned to Tacoma. To make room on the 40-man, Sam Tuivailala’s been moved to the 60-day.
The M’s defense figures to improve now that 3B won’t be manned by Ryon Healy and Tim Beckham. That said, the offense is struggling and a rusty Seager may not be what the club needs now, but who knows. He’s going to make the club better one way or another.
The M’s are facing Mike Fiers for the second time in a few weeks; we’ll see if familiarity helps them.
Whatever happens, I’m having a relaxing weekend on the Olympic Peninsula.
1: Haniger, CF
2: Vogelbach, DH
3: Encarnacion, 1B
4: Narvaez, C
5: Santana, LF
6: Seager, 3B
7: Bruce, RF
8: Crawford, SS
9: Long, 2B
SP: Kikuchi
Game 53, Mariners at Athletics
Wade LeBlanc vs. Daniel Mengden, 7:07pm
After being swept by what most suspected was the division’s weakest team, the M’s head to Oakland. Oakland’s been hot, but then, the M’s have played them tough this year, and everyone’s “hot” when they get to play Baltimore.
Marco Gonzales’ spin rate seemed to be up when looking at the Gamefeed data from Baseball Savant, but it looks normal when you actually search for it the “normal” way… must’ve been measurement error that they correct later. In any event, Marco gave up his 10th unearned run, a fact I gawked at over in Baseball Prospectus’ Notebook series, which you should check out ($). He gave up just one solo HR, so he pitched pretty admirably, but I’m with the Dome and Bedlam crew in that it’s increasingly apparent that he’s not the kind of ace the M’s can build towards 2021 around.
In fact, that 2021 date is already looking shaky. Going back to the risks I talked about before (kind of) the season, for the M’s plan to really take shape, Marco and Mitch Haniger needed to grow into the kinds of players that justified the M’s belief in them. They needed to grow from very good to great, the kind of players that dominate irrespective of the context they’re placed in. Instead, by pitching even more to contact, Marco’s been the player MOST impacted by the team’s clown-music defense. They needed to see him develop a way to miss bats reliably, and instead he’s moved the other way. Mitch Haniger needed to turn a few strikeouts into balls in play (hopefully hard hit ones), and instead, his strikeouts are up. Both players are still good, and they’re obviously key contributors. But as we’ll still need to wait a bit for Jarred Kelenic and company to help out at this level, the M’s needed pretty substantial development from both players. Maybe that’ll come, but it’s harder and harder to see that it’ll come in time or in the required magnitude to change the math for 2021.
That brings us to the 2nd risk, which was that not only was the competition far superior (and Ginny Searle has a great piece up at BP about how far ahead the Astros are), but they’re younger. The M’s are going to need massive contributions from players who are either not on the roster, or who are kind of at the edge of it, and not contributing too much right now (JP Crawford). The problem is that Astros and A’s have those players contributing right now. They need to find new complementary pieces; everyone does. But Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman will be 26 and 27 in 2021. Matt Chapman and Frankie Montas will by 28, and Matt Olson 27. Haniger will be 30, and Marco 29. THIS is the big contention year? How was this chosen?
I’ve said probably too many times that to even make this semi-plausible, the player development group has to essentially work miracles. Kelenic has to shoot through the system and be good immediately, but they’ll need big contributions from guys that weren’t pegged as top-10 overall draft picks. The nice thing is that you can point to a number of breakouts – Vogelbach with the big club, minor league K leader Ljay Newsome or Logan Gilbert in high-A and Justin Dunn in AA. But they’re balanced by regression from Evan White/Kyle Lewis. The M’s can be interesting and not…whatever you call this current club, but that wouldn’t seem to close the gap with an Astros team that could conceivably *still* be younger and light-years ahead. The Twins show that a young team’s variance can occasionally pay off – they contended way earlier than expected two years ago, and look like a force now. They had a number of things go right, but just as they inspire a bit of hope, you realize they’ll be competing for playoff spots directly with the M’s in 2021, too. I’m glad a SS like Polanco can scuffle and then go nuclear like that, but I’m not happy that he’ll still be making the M’s pay (at age 27) in 2021.
The A’s have had little to no pitching, but their injury-plagued rotation’s received some really nice contributions from both Chris Bassitt and today’s starter, Daniel Mengden. Once known more for his moustache and his penchant for giving up dingers, Mengden tossed 115 IP with a decent ERA last year thanks to low walks and a very low BABIP. He’s got a deep repertoire that doesn’t really impress the tools scouts, but he can usually find the zone (not in his 12 IP thus far, but in his career) and limit BABIP thanks both to his defense and also a high FB%. That’s always going to make him susceptible to dingers, but playing at night in Oakland’s a decent way to ameliorate that risk. He throws a rising four-seamer at 93, and also mixes in a sinker. He has a change, slider AND a slow, high-spin curve as well. I wasn’t sure if it was a distinct pitch, but Brooks says he’s got a cutter as well, but it’s pretty slider-y. In any event, the curve is a decent pitch despite it’s looping nature. Joey Votto mentioned after facing Yusei Kikuchi that you don’t see as many real, old-fashioned, slow, 12-6 curves, and it’s been successful, as has Bassitt’s, another pitch that’s almost comically slow. The key’s getting to his fastball, and that’s something both righties and lefties have been able to do.
1: Haniger, RF
2: Vogelbach, DH
3: Encarnacion, 1B
4: Narvaez, C
5: Santana, LF
6: Crawford, SS
7: Beckham, 3B
8: Long, 2B
9: Smith, CF
SP: LeBlanc
Game 52, Mariners at Rangers
Marco Gonzales vs. Jesse Chavez/Adrian Sampson, 11:10am
The M’s are now firmly in last place in the AL West, and their opening day starter is reeling, having given up 17 runs in 16 2/3 IP this month. After an odd but impressive April, the wheels have come off of both the Mariners and Marco Gonzales, and it’s imperative that both figure out how to re-attach wheels immediately. Marco’s bizarre velocity drop has ceased, as his May velos are up slightly from April. However, they remain lower than his *lowest* month of 2018, and the longer term trend here is troubling. Gonzales sat at 92 after the trade, and was within a fraction of that in May of 2018. Since then, it’s been a fairly steady drop through 2018 and into 2019. That makes the cessation of the drop worth celebrating, but if 89 is the new normal, then he’s going to figure out how to adjust the way he attacks hitters, and the M’s should probably be thinking about how an important starter lost 3 MPH in just over a year.
The M’s face old friend and Bellevue College alum Adrian Sampson today. Jesse Chavez will act as the opener before Sampson takes over to take the bulk of the innings. That’s the plan, at least; Sampson’s had some rough outings in the early going. I was going to call him a poor man’s Tommy Milone, but that’s probably not fair to either pitcher. Sampson ends up in a somewhat similar place as Milone, but he gets there rather differently. Milone throws a really slow four-seam fastball with tons of rise and pairs it with a change-up. This approach generates a lot of fly-ball contact, which is nice if the ball stays in play, and dangerous if it keeps flying into the seats. Sampson throws much harder – he’s at 93 with his four-seam fastball – but has much less vertical rise than average. His outpitch, if you can call it that, is a slider that he throws to righties and lefties. The slider is fairly middle of the road, and to his credit, Sampson doesn’t have the splits issues you might think (he actually has substantial reverse splits, though in only 69 IP in his career). But the issue is ultimately the same as it is for Milone: Sampson generates a ton of fly balls. In 2019. In Texas. Worse, he gets fewer strikeouts. If the ball stays in play, this sort of works for a 5th starter, but he’s now given up 15 HRs in 69 career IP. By FIP he looks ~ replacement level, and by DRA he’s pretty clearly below it. But by good old ERA, he hasn’t been a total disaster, which is why he’s already tossed 41 IP for these Rangers.
1: Haniger, RF
2: Vogelbach, DH
3: Encarnacion, 1B
4: Narvaez, C
5: Bruce, LF
6: Crawford, SS
7: Moore, 3B
8: Long, 2B
9: Smith, CF
SP: Gonzales
Congrats to Shed Long on his first MLB hit last night.
Erik Swanson struggled a bit in his return to AAA, going 3 IP and giving up 3 R with 2 BB, 2 Ks and 1 HR. That said, the R’s won comfortably 12-3 by beating up on ex-UW Husky Austin Voth and generating 19 hits in the game. Ian Miller went 4-5 with 5 RBIs from the 9 spot, bringing his seasonal line to .302/.352/.523. Justus Sheffield takes the mound for Tacoma today as they host Fresno.
Arkansas was rained out, so they’ll play two today. Ricardo Sanchez starts game 1, not sure who’ll start game 2.
Modesto was off last night, but they play San Jose tonight. Their ace, Ljay Newsome, gets the start, so good luck with that, San Jose.
West Virginia lost 10-7 to Greensboro last night, as Damon Casetta-Stubbs struggled. The youngster from Vancouver didn’t give up a run in his first 12+ IP this year, but is in a skid in which he’s given up 22 runs in his last 15 1/3 IP, with 34 hits allowed in that span. Jarred Kelenic homered for the Power, and his seasonal line stands at .299/.385/.515. They’ll play Greensboro again today with Steven Moyers taking the hill.
Game 51, Mariners at Rangers
Tommy Milone vs. Lance Lynn, 5:05pm
Are you ready for the Tommy Milone era of Mariners baseball? The M’s made a flurry of transactions today, including sending Dee Gordon and Ryon Healy to the IL, optioning Parker Markel to AAA and selecting the contract of Tommy Milone. Milone signed a minor league deal this year, and has pitched pretty well in the inflated offense of the PCL thus far. And with 130 big league starts under his belt, the M’s probably feel he’s a known commodity after the rude introductions suffered by Erik Swanson and Justus Sheffield (to say nothing of Markel).
He also fits right in. Milone’s a righty with a fastball that averaged 87 last year, and he’s worked in that range his entire career. Early on, he was fairly effective for the A’s, pitching to about a league-average rate thanks to low walks. The low offensive environment helped, as Milone’s, uh, leisurely fastball has tons of rise, making it very easy for batters to elevate. His career GB% is 38%, so his game is about producing outs in the air and sneaking strikeouts when he can. Milone in 2012-Oakland is just about the best environment for that skillset. I have no idea where that skillset will work in juiced-ball 2019.
Earlier on in the year, the M’s had a somewhat deceptive ERA – a decent enough ERA and then a lousy FIP/DRA. Now, though, every single indicator is bad. Their ERA is 5.21, and that doesn’t count their league-leading unearned runs. They’ve given up 21 more runs than *Baltimore*, and have given up over 50 more base hits than second-worst Texas. I have no idea what to do with the bullpen, which has been an utter disaster (they lead the league in walks, and have allowed 3X more HRs than Houston’s pen).
The team is on the verge of becoming unwatchable, and for some of you, they may already have fallen below that threshold. What’s frustrating is…well, everything, but just how comprehensively players collapse upon promotion. Markel’s a great example. He throws a really weird ball at 96, and has a slider that has completely puzzled minor league hitters. I completely understand that the level of competition he’s facing in the majors is much better, and that “it’s a game of adjustments” and all, but Markel is *doing something* or being told to do something that’s absolutely killing his effectiveness. I simply don’t believe that you can take someone *that* dominant in AA/AAA and have them pitch as poorly as Markel did in his… 3 2/3 IP. Sure, it’s a tiny sample. They all are. But looking at a per-PA or even per-pitch measure, he looked unrecognizable. Markel throws a four-seam fastball with a higher-than-average release point but over two standard deviations less vertical rise. That’s an oddity, and it *should* be effective at that kind of velocity. Maybe his command was atrocious, but I’m still baffled as to how this can happen, even in a sample of less than 50 batters.
Lance Lynn is a throwback. He throws a fastball (usually four-seam, but also some sinkers) nearly 70% of the time, in a league that’s down to ~58% or so. He’s also got a hard cutter, so you can argue that it’s more like 80-85% fastballs. The M’s are a good fastball-hitting team, but as they know, they have to be just to keep their club in it.
1: Haniger, CF
2: Santana, LF
3: Vogelbach, DH
4: Encarnacion, 1B
5: Narvaez, C
6: Bruce, RF
7: Beckham, 3B
8: Crawford, SS
9: Long, 2B
SP: Milone
As you can see, Long’s back, too, taking Gordon’s spot at 2B as Gordon eventually DID hit the IL with that wrist contusion.
Erik Swanson makes his first start in AAA since his demotion tonight, as Tacoma faces Fresno away from the charnel house that was Reno. Ray Kerr takes the hill for Modesto, and Ricardo Sanchez starts for Arkansas.
Game 50, Mariners at Rangers – Like Looking In A Mirror
Mike Leake vs. Mike Minor, 5:05pm
After struggling against a fairly complete Twins team, the M’s now visit their southern doppelgangers, the Texas Rangers.
The Rangers’ offense puts up runs, scoring 5.77 runs per game, but they’re let down by a shaky pitching staff. The M’s, too, can score, but their pitching staff has yielded even more runs than the Rangers’ group. On the year, the M’s give up 2/3 of a run for every inning they pitch, while the Rangers are at 0.625 runs per inning. Both marks are, scientifically, not-close-to-good-enough, but credit to the Rangers for managing a positive run differential with that kind of headwind.
At a high level, the two clubs’ offenses look quite similar. They both work the count and can take a walk, and both feature tons of power. Both clubs have been led thus far by a large adult son that’s faced some skepticism about his eventual utility to a club, and both are getting some solid seasons out of supposedly declining veterans. That’s helped balance down years from some younger players. Scratch the surface a bit, and there are of course some important differences. Joey Gallo doesn’t really play like Daniel Vogelbach, even if their overall offensive value is similar. No, Gallo’s not a brilliant defender, but he plays out there, while the M’s – even while suffering through their worst defensive season in memory – won’t let Vogelbach touch a mitt. Both clubs have regulars that have absolutely crashed, as the M’s Mallex Smith has counterparts in the Rangers’ Jeff Mathis and Rougned Odor, but it’s still defense that threatens to separate these two clubs.
The M’s have, by some measures, outhit the Rangers. But the Rangers position players remain more valuable thanks to the M’s crippling defensive woes. BP gives the M’s a slight lead in rest-of-season deserved run average, but I’m not sure that will produce the gap in runs-allowed thanks to that defense. Still and all, it’s nice and schadenfreude-y to see the way some really good prospects like Odor and Nomar Mazara have stagnated, or to see Martin Perez break out the second he left. It’s not just us!
That said, the Rangers may have helped Mike Minor. After a solid bounce-back campaign in 2018, Minor’s broken out a bit with a career-high K% (as a starter). He’s throwing fractionally harder, but if he’s done anything, it’s trusted in his change. A lefty, Minor typically faces line-ups stocked with right-handed bats. He’s been OK at dealing with them, thanks to a deep arsenal of a straight four-seam, a slider, and then a curve to go along with a change-up with tons of armside run. In the past, and especially as a reliever in Kansas City, Minor used his slider to righties quite a bit – about twice as often as he went to that change. As a starter, he threw more change-ups, but it was close, and used more breaking balls in total than his offspeed. This worked decently well, to be fair; it was his four-seam that righties hit harder. But it seems that sometimes, a change in pitch mix can have an impact on pitches that weren’t involved in the swap. This year, he’s throwing a lot more change-ups, and righties haven’t hit it at all. Even his fastball’s having better luck. Sure, the breaking balls are now getting hit more, but the overall impact has been a positive one. If the production on sliders is just small-sample nothingness, then Minor can survive even if batters warm to his fastball in mid-summer.
Mike Leake remains Mike Leake. I mentioned that he’s barely hanging on as his velocity dips and batters rip line drives whenever he misses a spot, but he really battled against the A’s and I maintain that it can be compelling watching. He’s not going to be great, and he and Marco Gonzales are going to battle all year to see who gives up the most total base hits in the AL, but he’s about as dependable as declining pitchers get.
1: Gordon, 2B
2: Haniger, RF
3: Encarnacion, DH
4: Santana, LF
5: Healy, 1B
6: Beckham, 3B
7: Crawford, SS
8: Murphy, C
9: Smith, CF
SP: Leake
Mallex Smith was hitting .255/.339/.392 coming into the game against Houston on April 13th. Since that time, he’s hitting .098/.179/.164 in 19 MLB games. I will never understand how a player like Smith – or Shed Long – can be in a tailspin like this, and then hit the seams off the ball in AAA *immediately* upon being demoted. Unfortunately, that time in AAA hasn’t helped in Smith’s return. You feel bad for the guy.
In better news, Logan Gilbert got the #1 ranking in this week’s prospect hot sheet at Baseball America, listing top prospects who are coming off of dominant weeks.
Ryne Inman starts for West Virginia tonight, with Justin Dunn taking the mound in Arkansas. Modesto’s off, and Tacoma probably wishes they’d not played the final game in the Reno series. Spot-starter Anthony Misiewicz came up from AA, and he and a parade of relievers had…a really bad time in Reno’s 25-8 win. Tacoma just couldn’t get off the field on third downs, and Reno’s offensive line proved too much for the front seven. For the second time this year, Tacoma used a teenage reliever who was making his high-minors debut, and this time didn’t go as well. Christian Pedrol, an 18-year old Brazilian, worked 1 1/3 IP and gave up 6 runs on 4 dingers. A rough welcome to the PCL, but hey, Misiewicz had a nearly identical line in 1 2/3, with 6 R on 3 dingers. Christian Bergman and Tyler Danish were equally ineffective. Catcher David Sheaffer finished it up with 2/3 IP of scoreless ball. Shed Long went 3-5, but that damnable Kevin Cron had his second 2-HR game in the series, and Yasmany Tomas managed to hit *4* HRs in the contest. Tomas finished 5-6 with 8 RBIs. The PCL plus the new juiced baseball…it’s quite something.
Mariners, Braves Swap Expiring Contracts in Trade That Barely Involves Baseball
The Mariners traded their one-time closer, Anthony Swarzak, for the Braves’ one-time closer, Arodys Vizcaino today. So far, so normal for a trade involving the M’s – there’s a bullpen arm, there’s targeting players in their final year of arb or contract. But this trade isn’t like most of the others in that Arodys Vizcaino will never play for the Mariners.
Vizcaino had a solid season last year, with 16 saves and a low ERA thanks to a lot of strikeouts and the resultant high strand rate. But it was cut short when Vizcaino’s shoulder began troubling him, and after a couple of games this season, that shoulder issue was back and worse than ever. Thus, Vizcaino’s final year of arbitration ended very early when he went under the knife for shoulder surgery. He’s on the 60-day DL, and he’ll remain there for the rest of the season.
Swarzak dealt with injuries last year, too, and skipped the M’s early start, making his first appearance in early April, in the team’s 8th game. He was sharp early, but has had trouble putting hitters away. That issue became a critical flaw on May 7th, when he threw an awful 0-2 pitch to the Yankees’ Gio Urshela, who hit it out to CF for a 3-run HR and a Yankee win. It was his second consecutive loss, both on HRs, and that was essentially that for Swarzak’s tenure as a high-leverage reliever. His next appearance came early in a disastrous Erik Swanson start, an eventual 14-1 loss. Owed $8M this year (he was acquired to match salaries in the Robinson Cano deal), the M’s could’ve just DFA’d him. But by throwing a bit of money at the Braves to essentially match numbers with Vizcaino’s dead money, the Braves threw in Jesse Biddle, the lefty they’d DFA’d back on May 15th.
So, one way to look at this is that the M’s *paid money* to acquire an injured player who’ll never pitch for them and a DFA’d LOOGY. The other is…no, there’s not really too many ways to slice and dice this. The Mariners like Biddle, who wasn’t bad last year, and throws 95 with a couple of breaking balls. But in general, you don’t have to give up much for DFA’d players, especially DFA’d players whose clock was running out. The M’s response may be that they were about to DFA Swarzak, so the money’s sunk anyway. They’ll still pay a roster spot they aren’t using, but technically speaking, they’ll pay about $1.6M less than they would’ve if they’d just let Swarzak go. That’s because they’re splitting the money with Atlanta, with both teams spending $6.4 M (Vizcaino’s owed $4.8M this year. Add $1.6 M to that, or take $1.6 M from Swarzak’s $8 M, and you’ve got parity).
This is fine in theory, but the optics stink. Beyond the optics, the whole idea here is that they are the club to unlock Biddle’s potential – he’s been undone by control problems – but yet they’re also the team that had to cut bait on Swarzak, a guy with some MLB success on his resume. That they had an opening at LOOGY in the first place is the result of their failure to help Zac Rosscup overcome his own control issues. How is this supposed to work?
It’s hard to say. It’s also hard to care. The M’s aren’t trying this year, and with this accountant-style trade of non-useful parts (it’s tempting to call this a write-down rather than a trade), they’ll do so by continuing to cycle through low-leverage relievers. With their bullpen in ruin, it’s tempting to go with someone else – anyone else. But I think we’d all like to see growth/development in the pen, even if it comes too late to help in 2019. The continual cycling makes that goal nearly impossible to achieve.