Game 105, Rangers at Mariners – Pitching Sale! Get a Starter Now and Save!
Mike Leake vs. Mike Minor, 12:40pm
Mikes Leake and Minor are both 31, and both signed through 2020 (Leake’s got a 2021 option). Leake is pretty clearly on the market, with the M’s turning down a deal or two on him, holding out for a bit more as we get towards the deadline. Minor is probably on the market, and definitely should be: the Rangers are on the very fringes of the playoff race, but Minor may net more in return given his stellar 2019 campaign in a tough pitching environment.
So, both guys have similar contracts and are the same age, but that’s about where the similarities end. Mike Leake is all about durability, having made at least 30 starts every year since 2012. For teams hard hit by injuries (New York, Oakland, etc.), that could be somewhat compelling. On the other hand, his fastball velocity is down 2 full MPH from when the M’s acquired him, and his sinker – essentially his bread and butter fastball his entire career – has been an unmitigated disaster this season, forcing him to improvise with a flurry of cutters and under-powered four-seamers. Mike Minor, on the other hand, offers upside: he’s posting the best K rate of his career this year, and his four-seam fastball velocity of 93 is higher than it was back in his pre-injury starter days with the Braves in 2012-13. He’s got a very good change-up with tons of armside run, which helps him neutralize right handed bats. But he’s got a TJ surgery on his resume, knocking out his entire 2015-16, and a portion of 2014. He relieved in 2016, so his track record as a post-TJ starter is more limited. There’s less value in his career numbers, because he’s pretty clearly altered just about everything in his approach. Time was, he was similar to Leake in that he had moderate K rates coupled with low walk rates. He got there a different way, mind you: he was as extreme a fly ball guy as Leake was a ground ball maven. But the focus wasn’t on dominance/bat-missing, but rather on controlled contact and not beating yourself with walks. In addition to posting career best K rates, though, Minor’s now posting a career high walk rate. It hasn’t hurt him, though, because he’s stranding so many thanks to those Ks and remarkable splits with men on base.
Leake could get moved soon, especially if he follows last Friday’s masterpiece with another strong start, but the M’s will have to buy down some salary, just as the Cardinals did when the M’s acquired him. Minor should fetch a bit more because he’s been the better pitcher this year, and because he would slot into the playoff rotation on most contenders (Leake would be more about *getting* to the postseason than taking up postseason innings in a short series), but the Rangers could conceivably upgrade their return if they kicked in a few bucks. More importantly, the Mariners are the more motivated sellers. The Rangers could conceivably extend Minor if they feel they’re closer to contention; the whole “if we’re .500 now despite down years from just about every batter, just add some regression and we’re wild card contenders,” argument. I’m not sure that’s true, but they’re 11 games ahead of the M’s, so they get to actually have that debate. The M’s just need to sell everything that isn’t bolted down or hurt. Given his track record, I don’t think Jerry Dipoto would bat an eye at having to add some money to improve their return for Leake, who, for his part, pretty clearly wants out.
1: Smith, CF
2: Crawford, SS
3: Beckham, LF
4: Narvaez, DH
5: Murphy, C
6: Vogelbach, 1B
7: Nola, 2B
8: Seager, 3B
9: Negron, RF
SP: Leake
Hickory beat West Virginia 5-4 last night despite a HR from Bobby Honeyman. Modesto beat up on Stockton 6-1, thanks to a brilliant start from Steven Moyers, who fanned 11 against 1 BB in 8 innings, giving up just 1 run. Tacoma’s skid continued, as they dropped a classic Reno game in Reno, 10-7. The R’s hit 3 HRs (Mariscal, Brugman and Court, for those following at home), but gave up 4. George Kirby tossed 3 scoreless in Everett’s win to make it a winning debut for new manager Louis Boyd in his hometown as the Frogs beat Vancouver 5-3. Kirby’s yet to allow a run in his first 7 IP as a pro, with 4 Ks against no walks.
Arkansas is back in action tonight with Ricardo Sanchez on the hill. Ian McKinney starts for Modesto, Kelvin Nunez for Everett, and Anthony Misiewicz for Tacoma.
Everett is 19-20 on the year, West Virginia is 52-50, Modesto is 46-57, Arkansas is 60-39, and Tacoma is 48-54.
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Don’t see how there is any kind of market for Leake with contending teams. He is the kind of pitcher you trade away to improve your team, not one you trade for.