Game 24, Mariners at Dodgers
Justin Dunn vs. Ross Stripling, 6:40pm
The M’s visit the Dodgers today, allowing the two Seager brothers to face off for the first time. Due to injuries and the comparative rarity of these interleague games, the two somehow haven’t yet played a game against each other in the regular season. Nathan Bishop and the Dome and Bedlam blog have been highlighting the degree to which Kyle’s been underrated by Mariner fans, and I’m coming around to this view. At first, I thought it seemed odd; Kyle’s beloved by just about all M’s fans I’ve ever encountered. But when you think about his stature in M’s lore compared to, say, Jay Buhner – a lesser ballplayer who became a legitimate nationally-known figure in the late 90s – I start to understand the point.
I think Kyle’s weird mid-career dip in production hurt his standing a bit; he seemed ready to take off after his brilliant 2016, but then shifting and bulking up seemed sapped his batting average and thus contributed to a drop in overall value. Still, he’s come back from all of that and been one of the leaders of this year’s group, and he finished 2019 looking very strong as well.
The other, perhaps larger, reason Seager’s gone underrated has been the glut of ridiculously good AL West 3Bs during his M’s tenure. This is the Duke Snider problem in action – a deserving player goes relatively unnoticed because others at the same position are having historically great careers/seasons. Seager’s first peak occurred in 2014, but that was during the heyday of Adrian Beltre’s late-career surge with Texas. Beltre out fWAR’d Seager in both 2014 and 2016 on his way to a hall of fame career. Josh Donaldson switched off of catching in 2010-11, and had his first full season in 2013, Seager’s second full year in Seattle. Donaldson put up over 7 WAR, and 13 in two seasons before moving to Toronto and getting somehow even better. Beltre retired and Donaldson’s been injury-prone in recent years, but somehow, it hasn’t mattered. The Astros developed Alex Bregman, who’s been worth over 16 fWAR in his last two seasons in Houston, and the A’s have replaced Donaldson with Platinum-Gloved Matt Chapman, worth “only’ 12.7 WAR the last two years.
The same sort of thing may develop with JP Crawford. Crawford’s plate discipline has been great, and his defense unbelievable, and it may get him to a place where he can post 3-4 WAR seasons year in and year out. That’s incredibly valuable. It might allow him to be the 3rd best SS in the division. Carlos Correa’s been streaky and missed time, but as an MVP candidate when he’s healthy. Marcus Semien somehow became an all-world defender in a 7.6 WAR year last year. And now the Angels’ low-K afterthought, David Fletcher, is working on another 3-WAR season? Fletcher hasn’t really played much SS, and now he can do this?
Crawford’s been a streaky hitter, and he’s shown a variety of approaches. Before his injury last year, Crawford showed good pop, with an ISO of .189 in the first half. This approach came with a few more Ks than he’d like, and in the second half, he improved his plate discipline – taking more walks and striking out less. That approach has carried over into 2020, and it’s very much like Fletcher’s in Anaheim. But it’s *so* powerless (his ISO in 2020 is .061) that it saps his overall value. He’s hitting the ball on the ground much more often than last year, or in his previous stints with the Phillies, and while his average and OBP are up, his ceiling’s probably down. Maybe it’s a trade worth making? It’s just going to be tough to keep up with the other shortstops in what’s suddenly baseball’s deepest position. Hell, Corey Seager is almost an afterthought now with Tatis Jr. going nuclear in San Diego, Bo Bichette coming on in Toronto/Buffalo, and Correa/Trevor Story/Semien/Lindor/etc. all starring for their teams.
Ross Stripling was a 5th round pick by the Dodgers back in 2012, coming up as an unexciting depth guy with solid but not amazing control. Something clicked around 2016, and Stripling’s had nearly immediate success in the big leagues. He’s not overpowering, but he’s never had an ERA or FIP over 4. It’s never been under 3 either, but for a guy the Dodgers were counting on only as a 5th starter, that’s pretty darned good.
Stripling, a righty, throws a four-seam fastball from a high release point at about 91. It’s arrow-straight and has a bit more vertical movement than average, but it’s not some high-spin thing; it’s pretty much dead-on league average in that regard. He has a change, and then two solid breaking balls: a slider and curve. He’s used the slider more in his big league career, but has had much more success with the curve. He’s tried using the slider to lefties, but they’ve done quite well on the pitch, which is nice, as they’ve struggled somewhat with his fastball. Flip that for RHBs: they see his fastball quite well, but struggle with the breaking stuff. Overall, righties have used that FB success to post much better numbers than lefties over the course of Stripling’s 400 IP+ career. The key has been keeping them off-balance with his change, a pitch he rarely throws to righties.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Moore, RF
3: Lewis, CF
4: Seager, 3B
5: Nola, C
6: Vogelbach, DH
7: White, 1B
8: Long, 2B
9: Lopes, LF
SP: Dunn
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This time it’s Magill. That’s a first for him, but the norm for this ‘pen.
At least White has been making better contact with fastballs in the zone lately.
Cue Servais going “well, that’s a tough one but our kids will learn through adversity” for the umpteenth time…
Good to see White’s bat coming around!