Game 5, White Sox at Mariners
JAMES PAXTON vs. Lucas Giolito, 7:10pm
Last night’s game was a clunker. The M’s could not handle Carlos Rodon, who showed that the velo gains he made late in 2020 could still be put to good use, and his slider was as effective as ever. Hey, sometimes a reclamation project figures something out, and you’ve got to tip your cap to Rodon after a performance like that. Perhaps more concerning was Justus Sheffield’s outing, giving up 6 runs (4 earned) in 5 innings. Sheffield gave up 8 hits and issued three free passes (2 BB, 1 HBP), and giving up a home run (after allowing only 2 last year).
His slider wasn’t bad, but his sinker had a bit less sink. It’s only one game, and it came against a potent offense, but the M’s offense may not be able to help much if M’s starters falter. Sheffield, like Marco before him in game 1, needs to keep the game close.
Of course, the M’s may be better suited to help their pitchers do that thanks to the six man rotation and the extra day of rest it provides the starters. It might *really* help today’s starter, James Paxton. Paxton’s injury history is…extensive, and he suffered volatility in his velo during his time with the Yankees. If he’s healthy and throwing well, he gives the M’s rotation a quality it doesn’t really have without him. I’d say he adds depth, but that’s what Nick Margevicius and Ljay Newsome brings. He brings #1/#2 stuff to the middle of the rotation, and if he’s able to do so consistently, and if he’s able to increase his workload this year, it turns an average-ish rotation into a strength.
Part of keeping him healthy is going to be ensuring that he’s stretched out, and after missing some time mostly for visa issues this spring, the M’s are going to limit his workload tonight to 75 pitches or so. We’ll take what we can get, as Paxton’s going to be fun to watch. One thing to keep an eye on is his pitch mix. With Seattle, everything worked off of his four-seam fastball, and he added a hard cutter/slider as his putaway pitch, with his curve and rare change to round out the arsenal. With the Yankees, he went more to a sinker, and de-emphasized his four-seam. Was that a conscious decision, given the homer-friendly park? Classification error? Or a new weapon? We’ll soon find out.
Lucas Giolito was the best arm in his draft class (2012), which was saying something, given his own HS team also included Max Fried and Jack Flaherty. But he lost most of his senior year to elbow pain, causing him to fall to Washington at #16 overall. Soon after signing, the Nats confirmed it: he’d need TJ surgery. He rehabbed and reclaimed his place as one of baseball’s best prospects, and while the K rate wasn’t eye-popping as he moved up the ladder, the results were mostly there. He got a cup of coffee for Washington in 2016, and then was traded to Chicago as part of the Adam Eaton deal. Despite so-so stats in AAA, he got another big league opportunity in 2017, and was..fine. But everything collapsed in 2018, as he suffered through a long season with an ERA over 6 – an ERA he earned by walking nearly 12% of hitters and posting a poor 16% K rate.
He was just 23, but the Sox outlook suddenly looked cloudier. Carlos Rodon stagnated. Dylan Covey struggled. Yoan Moncada, the big prospect in the Chris Sale deal, was a below-average hitter, and shortstop of the future Tim Anderson posted a .281 OBP. Wasn’t the re-build supposed to be showing signs of life by now? Instead, the pitchers seemed to be going in reverse.
Everything changed for Giolito in 2019. Renewed confidence in his change gave him an outpitch, and his four-seam fastball went from being a real liability to an excellent pitch. He increased the spin rate on his heater, and was able to increase its vertical movement from essentially dead-on average to a few inches above average. He ditched his sinker, and swapped his curve for a slider. All in all, he’s gone from a clearly below-average starter to the unquestioned ace of the White Sox, with newfound bat-missing ability and confidence. He’s become the pitcher that scouts saw back in 2011 or so, but took a winding path to get there.
I think about the White Sox a lot, ever since writing that post coming out of the All Star break in 2017: the White Sox had a young club, signed to team-friendly extensions and the blew it all up, collecting a murderer’s row of prospects in the process. They looked set to become a threat, but the prospects took longer to gel than we’d thought. Is that how it’s going to be in Seattle? Is that what’s going on right now, or in 2020 – are what looks like growing pains for, say, JP Crawford actually incredibly important development, allowing him to make the leap that Tim Anderson did for the Sox in 2019? Are these guys closer than we think? Or was it always folly to think that the M’s could chop several years off the timeline for a rebuild, especially if they had to do it without the kind of international free agent talent (Luis Robert) and trade chips (Moncada and Kelenic may be a push, but the Sox also had Giolito, Dylan Cease, Reynaldo Lopez, etc.) that Chicago had?
1: Haniger, RF
2: France, 2B
3: Seager, 3B
4: White, 1B
5: Trammell, CF
6: Marmolejos, DH
7: Torrens, C
8: Fraley, LF
9: Crawford, SS
SP: James Paxton, woooo
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11 Responses to “Game 5, White Sox at Mariners”
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Chicago has been the comparative. I just hope Seattle doesn’t pass on an opportunity to get better if it presents itself, even if that means moving players still under evaluation into a bench/supporting role.
A lot of fans, and even journalists, have speculated over a move to 2B for Crawford. I don’t really get it. His defense at SS isn’t in question, it’s his bat, and if he moves to 2B you still have that same bat in the lineup. Sure, you get a better bat with Corey Seager or Trevor Story, but I would argue that finding a second baseman as well should be part of the conversation.
And this serves the argument to keep Seager around longer. If Seattle’s going to contend in 2022, they can’t wing it with an infield full of question marks.
Paxton out, Marge is in.
What a nightmare.
Left elbow discomfort.
Fortunately, Seattle is deep in starting pitching. There’s Marge, Newsome…
Who am I forgetting?
Giolito strikes out White for K number 10, then just leaves.
So rude.
Chicago came into this game leading the league in strike outs (51). Seattle was tied for 8th.
Chicago has been the comparative. I just hope Seattle doesn’t pass on an opportunity to get better if it presents itself, even if that means moving players still under evaluation into a bench/supporting role.
The problem is that missing opportunities to get really better, to the point of contention, has been how this has played out in 2019, 2020, and it could be that way in 2021.
29 Ks in 16 innings by your offense and losing the SP on your staff with the most “acey” stuff as soon as you run into an actual contender is NOT the way to engender optimism. Ugh.
Evan White’s at 0 BBs and 7 Ks in 19 PAs? OPS in the 400s so far? Everyone but Haniger and France is in Mendoza line territory? Lordy.
Huh, who could have thought the M’s might have trouble scoring runs? Whocouldanode?
And this serves the argument to keep Seager around longer.
So you’re saying the M’s should pick up his team option? I’m betting that’s not happening- not to mention that he probably wants to go somewhere where he might win at the end of his career, especially after being publicly dissed by his organization.
I’d be pleasantly surprised if they do (it would mean Seager played well enough to get the option picked up and the M’s were willing to write a big check). I could use some pleasant surprises based on how this team is looking so far…
The problem is that missing opportunities to get really better, to the point of contention, has been how this has played out in 2019, 2020, and it could be that way in 2021.
What rebuilding teams add significant talent in the first year of a rebuild? Seattle signed Kikuchi with a unique contract structure and that was about it. They knew things would be rough for a year or three (at least). We’ve already been over the potential mistakes from this past offseason, but shedding payroll for 2019 and 2020 made perfect sense if they intend to honor what they said, or implied, about spending when the time was right. We both agree that they should have spent more this past offseason, and they’ll have their work cut out for them moving forward, but at the moment this is simply looking like a larger ‘step back’ than what was sold in 2018.
29 Ks in 16 innings by your offense and losing the SP on your staff with the most “acey” stuff as soon as you run into an actual contender is NOT the way to engender optimism. Ugh.
Evan White’s at 0 BBs and 7 Ks in 19 PAs? OPS in the 400s so far? Everyone but Haniger and France is in Mendoza line territory? Lordy.
Small sample, but yeah, not good, and had they brought in role players, there wouldn’t be so much pressure on these young bats.
So you’re saying the M’s should pick up his team option?
I’m saying they should try to keep him around, whether that’s for one year or with an extension that brings down the AAV–if he’s willing to stay.
If they let Seager walk, they extend the experiment in the infield. We don’t know if France can handle 3B full time. Moore is the most promising infielder at the moment and his value’s higher when his positional flexibility is exercised.
I’m saying they should try to keep him around, whether that’s for one year or with an extension that brings down the AAV–if he’s willing to stay.
A long term extension for someone on the wrong side of 30 like Seager is probably not how this is going to work out. I think the M’s might be willing to lowball offer him a pay cut for two years, because why not, or maybe even exercise the one year team option if it’s a reasonable deal, but tying yourself to a player on the downside for multiple years when you don’t have to isn’t how baseball works these days.
I expect him to walk. Like Mather said.
Who said anything about a long-term extension?
It should go without saying that it would be for 1 or 2 years.
And yes, that is probably unlikely as well, but it would allow the focus to shift to the middle infield and rotation without much to worry about un the corners as France could serve at 1B if necessary.
It should go without saying that it would be for 1 or 2 years.
His 2022 team option is $15 million, which is a salary cut from 2021’s 18.5 million.
Offering him, say, $18 million for two years (presuming he’s performed well enough to come back) is “hey, take a 50% pay cut because, um, reasons”. On top of, well, Mather’s comments it’s hard not to see that as “we really don’t wanna”.
Oh, and there’s an expiring CBA this offseason, which will no doubt make things extra special.
it would allow the focus to shift to the middle infield and rotation without much to worry about un the corners as France could serve at 1B if necessary.
I agree, but let’s just say Marc’s “The Risks: 2021” “hey, this was a GOOD 74 wins” scenario is looming pretty large… at which point is Seager even going to want to come back to a team that is at best a marginal chance at contention in 2022? Or go chase a ring?
There’s a good chance that in that scenario, the correct play is to do the ol’ Branch Rickey “year too early rather than a year too late” slide and just add 3B to the list while your contention goalposts move to 2023.
Offering him, say, $18 million for two years (presuming he’s performed well enough to come back) is “hey, take a 50% pay cut because, um, reasons”. On top of, well, Mather’s comments it’s hard not to see that as “we really don’t wanna”.
Sorry, did I suggest 2 years, 18m? Low-balling wasn’t my idea, but he certainly isn’t going to get 15m a year on the open market.