Game 10, Mariners at Orioles
Justus Sheffield vs. Dean Kremer, 4:05pm
Yesterday’s game was a wonder – a huge comeback from a 6-0 deficit fueled by a shut-down bullpen and an offense that simply wouldn’t go away. It was, at least for a day, a complete inversion of everything we expected from this team. The M’s were supposed to be a team built around solid starting pitching, and with enough offense to scratch out close games. The bullpen was a complete unknown, but figured to be a weakness, given how bad last year’s group was, and the fact that the main acquisitions didn’t have a track record of sustained success. Instead, we watched Chris Flexen founder on the rocks of the Twins middle of the order, and the M’s fall into a hole early. Then, the bullpen held the Twins in check for four scoreless while the M’s line-up homered its way back into the game, before winning it in the 9th on Kyle Seager’s second dinger. It is the kind of game that will be remembered as a turning point, if the M’s continue to succeed. But even in the likely event that it’s just a cool win in a down season – like the M’s 2016 10-run comeback against San Diego – it was so strange and wonderful, it deserves to be remembered anyway.
A number of relievers have acquitted themselves well in the early going, but Rule 5 guy Will Vest has been fun to watch. Again, though, he’s done it in pretty much the opposite way as I would’ve thought. The scouting report was that he was drafted as a low-90s FB guy who consistently picked up velocity in the Tigers very successful pitching development system. He was sitting mid-90s, we heard, until fall instructs in late 2020, where he would occasionally touch the high 90s. This offered the promise of more bat-missing ability than he’d shown in 2019 in the high minors – that was two seasons and two MPH ago! High 90s heat and a slurvy slider should make him very playable against righties.
Instead, what we’ve seen (yes, in just over 6 IP), is a pitchability low-90s fastball/change guy who mixes in the slider. He’s been so-so against righties, but it’s actually *lefties* that he’s dominating. This hasn’t translated into strikeouts, mind you. Instead, he’s been a crafty lefty trapped in the body of a FB/SL righty reliever, which is kind of a bizarre thing. His change isn’t getting whiffs, but it’s getting a bunch of topped ground balls.
Vest’s change gets a ton of horizontal movement – much more than average. And a part of the reason for *that* is that it looks like it’s a seam-shifted wake pitch. As we’ve talked about a little bit here, this is the newly-discovered or measured force that contributes to pitch movement that is NOT the magnus force. Everything we’ve learned to date through pitch fx or even Statcast has been based on the premise that ONLY the magnus force causes movement, so the systems imputed spin based on where the ball actually went – spin was calculated from movement. But with newer technology (esp. Hawkeye), teams and physicists could actually *measure* both movement and spin, allowing them to double-check those magnus-force-only spin direction measurements. For many pitchers, they’re the same. But for some, they can be quite different.
Some pitchers – Dustin May, Blake Treinen – use it to amp up the movement on their sinker, getting a boost to the arm side movement they imparted with spin. Others get a bit of glove side movement. It depends on how the seams are oriented when it’s thrown. This is what allows the Cubs Kyle Hendricks to essentially have two separate change-ups: a normal one with run, and a cut-change that’s much straighter. While this is cool, it doesn’t look like a SSW change (or sinker) will necessarily lead to a ton more whiffs. Maybe at the margin. But it does seem to result in more ground balls than you’d expect, per this analysis from Eno Sarris. This is essentially exactly what we’re seeing from Vest who’s in the top 20 in highest spin deviation (ie. most seam shifted wake) for change-ups this year, a few spots below Chris Flexen.
Today the M’s face the Orioles’ Dean Kremer, a former Dodger farmhand. Kremer is a bit like…er, Flexen, in that he sits in the 93-94 range with his fastball, and essentially uses his fastball and cutter equally, while also mixing in a curve and a rarer change-up. I caught Kremer’s first start of the year in the Bronx, which was an odd one. In the first inning, he allowed two singles and a walk to load the bases with no one out and the middle of the Yanks order coming up. He struck out three in a row to escape, and looked to have settled into a groove. But no – he gave up a dinger to the first man to face him in the 2nd, and ultimately only pitched three so-so innings.
He’s racked up Ks wherever he’s gone, though he’s yet to really put it all together. He still walks too many (as does Vest), and there’s nothing in his velo and movement profile that screams “strikeout guy.” But his cutter/slider can be a problem, and the curve can be tough after it’s set up by the other pitches.
One byproduct of Flexen’s sub-par start yesterday underscores just how far the M’s are from the preseason predictions (er, including mine). Instead of their big strength, M’s starters now have the 3rd worst fWAR in the game at -0.1. The bullpen’s 17th. But it gets weirder. In innings 1-5, the M’s wOBA allowed is .388, the highest in MLB. But from inning 6 through extras, the M’s wOBA allowed is the 7th best in MLB at a stingy .289.
1: Haniger, DH
2: France, 2B
3: Seager, 3B
4: Marmolejos, LF
5: Torrens, C
6: Trammell, CF
7: White, 1B
8: Moore, RF
9: Crawford, SS
SP: Sheffield
Anthony Misiewicz hits the Covid-IL, and so the M’s have recalled Erik Swanson from the alternate site. Not sure if Misiewicz tested positive or just came into contact with someone who did, or what.
Nathan Bishop over at Dome and Bedlam encourages the M’s to extend Mitch Haniger, who has looked like peak Mitch Haniger after nearly a 2 year layoff. I’m not completely convinced, but it’s a good piece and worth considering.
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There were hints that Jerry has already tried to extend Haniger, though that was before the series of surgeries. I would imagine Mitch would want more than just a couple of years and some sort of protection (or benefit) in the event of a trade, though middle-ground shouldn’t be hard to find.
I wouldn’t mind him sticking around, but it would be interesting to see how things play out with all the RHHs on board. Keeping Seager around a little longer should probably be a higher priority.