Game 38, Indians at Mariners – This is the First Day of the Rest of Your Franchise
Logan Gilbert vs. Zach Plesac, 7:10pm
Today is the biggest – the most important, the most momentous – Mariners game in years. After waves of prospects that were supposed to lift the M’s from mediocrity failed, the Mariners bring up two of the best prospects they’ve had in years. OF Jarred Kelenic, a top-10 prospect in baseball, makes his MLB debut after a contentious battle with the front office over his service time. Logan Gilbert, a talented but relatively unknown from a non-power conference college, makes his debut as well, after tearing through the minors and showing poise and command beyond his years. For years, the M’s have told us to be patient, and that a franchise-altering wave was on its way. They had to do this because the vanguard of this baseballing revolution kept failing. Just a year ago, they were really marketing Shed Long, Evan White, and Mallex Smith. This franchise – and more importantly this fanbase – needs something to cheer about, and today, they’ve got it.
The way the M’s social media and marketing department effortlessly pivoted to full-on saturation coverage of today‘s game says a lot. You won’t find Dipoto’s interviews talking about Kelenic needing to hit lefties, or them needing to see X, Y, or Z from Gilbert. It’s all about letting fans see two of the big prospects the club has done so well at getting even casual fans excited about. I’m not being cynical: this is the *job* of social and marketing, and they’re doing it well. The club has talked about how important these players are to the idea of a contending Mariners squad, they *have* to let people know that they’re not in Arkansas, Modesto, Everett, or Tacoma anymore.
And yet I still can’t get Kevin Mather’s voice out of my head. The President of the team admitted that they offered Kelenic a deal that would’ve seen his MLB debut in *2020* but was ultimately rejected. Since that time, they kept him down to ensure another year of club control, but not enough to mess around with the Super 2 deadline. In doing so, they frittered away whatever leverage they had. That’s the entire point behind service time manipulation. If arbitration comes later, or if club control extends further, Kelenic’s long term salary obligations *will be* lower. It’s just that simple. If the M’s were to make another offer of a long-term contract, they would do so under that new framework that spells out exactly how many pre-arb, arb, and free agent seasons they’d be buying out. For the ability to get a slight discount on a seven years of production, or a slight discount on an extension, they’ve royally pissed off their best talent. Yes, Mariners, you successfully won yourself a slight gain in leverage at the cost of worse MLB team performance over parts of two seasons (which, you know, count) AND making Kelenic and his agent mad. Is…is that good?
Someone on Twitter asked me the perfectly rational question: isn’t this good for the M’s? Shouldn’t we WANT our team to secure that extra year? The tacit premise here is that the Oakland freaking A’s aren’t leaving money on the table, so the M’s would essentially be unilaterally disarming. There are two real responses here. The first was put brilliantly by Craig Goldstein at BP back in 2018 (free article) that argues that just because a team *can* do a thing doesn’t tell us much about whether or not they *should.* What the current system incentivizes in more ways than just this one is putting out a *worse product* for some greater good. You can argue that this is just one of many such things, like the amateur draft order, or waiver claims, etc., but it’s an important one in that it governs how a team treats its players. Fans, Goldstein suggests, don’t have to cheer on teams who treat their best young talents in a way that we wouldn’t like if it was done to us. Yes, the CBA allows it, but the assumptions around service time manipulations have become ossified into an expectation that they do it. The CBA itself says that teams may not manipulate service time, but arbitration failed to fault the Cubs for pretty obviously messing with Kris Bryant, so by the letter of the law, anything goes – any excuse is probably going to fly in court. This just doesn’t seem tenable, and doesn’t seem ethical.
The second reason is that it’s often self-defeating. I think at this point it’s a decent assumption that the M’s decades-long playoff streak is a drag on the team and fans. And even still, even with the playoffs expanded to below-.500 clubs last year, the M’s *would not* bring up players who could help them END that streak because of potential cost issues in like 2025. Really think about that. Is that what being a fan of a team is about? Are…are we okay with that? We watched Philip Ervin and Jose Marmolejos play OF for a contending team while Gilbert and Kelenic chilled in T-Town. Is that what we signed up for? Can we even say it made a playoff run more likely in 2027-8? I think it’s really hard to say. I’m pretty sure it impacted 2020, though. And it did so while angering the very player they want to negotiate with. I am really excited these two are making their debuts, and I swear I will get off my soapbox soon, but I think we can’t unlearn what Kevin Mather taught us, and thinking that everything changed when he resigned is insane.
Are Kelenic and Gilbert likely to struggle? I don’t anticipate it. This BP article from Jarrett Seidler explains why, but in Kelenic, the M’s took one of the most polished HS bats in years, and added some oomph to his picture-perfect swing. They’ve got a player who’s had some issues with swing-and-mix, but has really improved in that regard, most noticeably in the Cactus League. He’s grown accustomed to handling lefties, and as Seidler says, he doesn’t get enough credit for his speed and baserunning (that was on display when I saw him steal 2nd off of lefty MacKenzie Gore, who then couldn’t stop throwing to 1st when Kelenic got on base again). I know that Dustin Ackley was seen as a polished bat too, but fans forget just how much of a (surprising) struggle Ackley had at times. He didn’t hit all that well in AA, and was streaky in AAA (he never looked like a sure-fire hitter to me). Kelenic isn’t that and while it’s asking too much for Kelenic to anchor the line-up starting in a few hours, I’m just less concerned about him than any M’s prospect since…I’m not really sure who.
Gilbert, too, doesn’t have to do too much, and will have his innings managed this year (110 or so) and pitches managed tonight (80-85), but that’s where his command comes in. He needed less than 70 to get through 5 in Tacoma, and yes, everything’s going to be much tougher, but avoiding walks and letting better defenders make plays for him is a good plan, and which is a heck of a lot better to ask of your young SP than requiring dominance and long outings. I was insanely hyped for Taijuan Walker’s M’s debut years ago, and intrigued by James Paxton’s. I think my expectations for Gilbert are sort of in that vein. Note that while both Walker/Paxton showed flashes early, and had some prospect hype, they weren’t dominant from the get go. I don’t think Gilbert’s an ace right now, but he will assuredly help this beleaguered rotation.
Also coming up is SP/RP/swingman Paul Sewald, another ex-Met like Chris Flexen. To make room, the M’s optioned Taylor Trammell, Aaron Fletcher and Wyatt Mills to Tacoma, transferred Nick Margevicius and Ljay Newsome to the 60-day dl, and, somewhat sadly, DFA’d all-around good guy Braden Bishop, who simply never hit enough in his M’s or really Rainiers tenure. I hope he can stick around, and that he can work with some coaches who can unlock something in his swing.
So who’s Kelenic going to be facing in his first game? Another in Cleveland’s assembly line of unheralded pitching prospects. Zach Plesac was a 12th round pick and had great success in his first call-up in 2019, and then looked brilliant in the short season last year. He’s holding his own this year, but he’s not been exactly dominant. He limits walks and hard contact, but doesn’t miss as many bats as you might expect, and perhaps doesn’t pitch the way you’d expect.
He’s got a league-average FB velocity of 93, and uses it up in the zone to get whiffs on occasion. But it’s not his primary pitch at all. To lefties, he pitches off of his change-up that’s thrown pretty firmly at 86 or so. To righties, his primary offering is a hard slider at 87. The fastball is used as a change-of-pace, and he can mix in a curve as well. This approach is something that Matthew Trueblood talked about the other day re: Yu Darvish, a “pitching backwards” approach that essentially makes his four-seamer a 96 mph change-up.
That’s what Plesac’s doing, too, and it’s fascinating to see what he’s attempting. Plesac’s change and slider are not really intended to be swing and miss pitches, even though that’s kind of what we think of when we think of them. Plesac could theoretically get more whiffs if he could take some velo OFF of his change. But I’m not sure that’s what he wants: Plesac’s change and slider are put into play at *double* the rate of his fastball. For most pitchers, you’d expect the opposite, with “chase” sliders thrown way outside, or backdooring opposite-handed batters. But Plesac understands that the wOBA on contact (wOBACON) for fastballs this year is .382. For off-speed pitches, it’s just .321 and that’s *despite* the fact that they’re most often thrown to batters who have the platoon advantage. For sliders? .356; worse than cambios, but still way lower than heaters. So yes, Kelenic gets to open against a righty starter, but he’s going to face an approach he may not have seen much of.
1: Kelenic, LF woooooo
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Lewis, CF
5: France, DH
6: Crawford, SS
7: Torrens, C
8: Moore, 2B
9: White, 1B
SP: GILBERT woooo
The M’s optioned Taylor Trammell, who could use more PAs than will be available in Seattle with Kelenic around. Why not option Evan White? Because he signed an extension, the math around his service time no longer applies, and the M’s face a completely different set of incentives than they do with Kelenic/Trammell. Am I saying that money and not necessarily what’s best for player development is driving this? Not exactly, but without the added incentive of service time, the M’s may just want to keep White with the specific coaches they want. That *could* make sense, but I think it gives short shrift to the environment in which that coaching and development takes place. It’s been a year plus, and I don’t think there’s enough evidence of improvement, which would ideally prompt a re-think. Whoops, am I back on the soap box? I mean, it was just sitting there unused….
The Rainiers are back in action in Salt Lake today with something of an understaffed group of pitchers.
Ian McKinney starts for Arkansas today, who doubled up on Springfield last night 4-2. Jake Scheiner hit his third HR of the year.
Everett, like Tacoma, is playing a ton of extra-inning games, and they won last night’s game in walk-off fashion in the 10th. Kaden Polcovich homered for the Frogs, and Jack Larson plated Austin Shenton with the winning run. Julio Rodriguez went 1-4 with a walk.
Modesto blanked Rancho Cucamonga 4-0 behind a great start from Connor Phillips who sat in the mid-90s, striking out 7 in 5 scoreless innings. Noelvi Marte had two hits.
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5 Responses to “Game 38, Indians at Mariners – This is the First Day of the Rest of Your Franchise”
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I love the M’s, much as it’s pained me in the last two decades, and I’m going to do my damnedest to put the service time nonsense, previous failed prospects, and decades of futility out of my mind and just enjoy this moment.
Why not option Evan White? Because he signed an extension, the math around his service time no longer applies, and the M’s face a completely different set of incentives than they do with Kelenic/Trammell. Am I saying that money and not necessarily what’s best for player development is driving this? Not exactly, but without the added incentive of service time, the M’s may just want to keep White with the specific coaches they want. That *could* make sense, but I think it gives short shrift to the environment in which that coaching and development takes place. It’s been a year plus, and I don’t think there’s enough evidence of improvement, which would ideally prompt a re-think.
That and the M’s don’t actually have a reasonable 1B option, because they locked in on White. I mean, I guess you could play Ty France there everyday and rotate OFers/Seager/whoever through the DH spot, but seriously, Marmolejos isn’t actually a better player, Haggerty really isn’t, and Dylan Moore is needed for 2B, where the M’s also don’t have a GOOD option, but at least Moore isn’t completely ridiculous, just kinda “not very good but at least not replacement level AAA organizational fodder”.
Oh, I should get off that soapbox and just root for a good debut from our guys.
Gilbert looks better than the box’s boxscore.
Torrens might end up with more dropped and passed balls than pitches thrown by Plesac.
Sigh.