Game 50, Mariners at Athletics
Robert Dugger vs. James Kaprielian, 12:37pm
Yesterday’s win was an impressive one. Logan Gilbert pitcher around a rough inning, limiting the damage, and turned the game over to a bullpen that did a remarkably good job. The offense did just enough, and was led by Jarred Kelenic. It all added up to a series win against the AL West leaders in their own ballpark. The M’s aren’t yet good, but they’ve done some good things – won some big series – this year.
Today’s getaway day looks like it’ll be a bullpen game for Seattle, with Robert Dugger getting the start. Dugger, the one-time M’s draft pick turned Florida Marlin (what is it with Dipoto trading so frequently with the Florida teams?) turned Mariner, pitches off of his breaking stuff – a mid-70s curve and a slider around 80-81. After having control issues in his first call-up back in 2019, he’s improved markedly in that regard. Unfortunately, he hasn’t yet fixed the HR problems that have plagued him, despite adding a few ticks in velocity.
Opposing him is one-time UCLA standout and oft-injured Yankees/A’s prospect, James Kaprielian. Kaprielian missed two full years with arm injuries, and has thrown 50 innings in a season all of once since being drafted in 2015. He features a four-seam fastball at 93-94 with a bit of sink, a very rare sinker with – yes – more sink, and a really good set of secondaries: his out-pitch, a hard slider at 86, a seldom-used curve, and a fascinating change that works like a splitter. That change has exactly the same amount of horizontal run as his fastball, but it dives down remarkably hard. By statcast, it’s a pretty freakish pitch. But hey, he doesn’t use it as much as the slider. The slider’s great, don’t get me wrong. It has a higher whiff rate, and when batters make contact, it’s more likely to be on the ground.
Given his bendy repertoire, injury history, and the need to limit innings, Kaprelian’s only going 5-6 innings per start. I…I suppose the same is technically true for all non-deGrom pitchers, but still. The M’s can again plan on seeing the A’s bullpen, which is simply not the strength it’s been in recent years. The M’s bullpen ranks just ahead of Oakland by fWAR, 1.4 to 1.3. Can’t remember the last time we could say that; even in Diaz’s unreal 2018, the A’s got Blake Treinen’s equally unreal 2018 along with Lou Trivino’s breakout, some solid Yusmeiro Petit, etc.
1: Kelenic, RF
2: Haniger, DH
3: Seager, 3B
4: Lewis, CF
5: Crawford, SS
6: France, 2B
7: Walton, LF
8: Campbell, 1B
9: Godoy, C
SP: Dugger
Eric Campbell’s the former Met who hadn’t played in the bigs since 2016. It’s not quite the Sean Kazmar story, or even the Scott Kazmir story, but it’s pretty cool for Campbell. Not sure it’s all that great for the M’s predicted runs scored, but it’s not worse than Donovan Walton starting in left field.
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11 Responses to “Game 50, Mariners at Athletics”
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the Mariners have two decent choices; either find/promote a sixth starter or go to a 5-man rotation.
Naturally, they’re doing the third thing instead. Aargh.
Anybody still think Kelenic could handle CF? He hasn’t been fun to watch in left.
In spite of teams all around the league doing more and more things they hope will help players stay healthy, there seems to be more and more injuries than in the past. Based upon my own experiences from 60+ years in baseball. I think all the extra time off, rest and lower pitch counts lead to more injuries and not less. Last summer I played in the Chinese National Championships. A number of these guys play professional ball in China. Four of the players on my team played college ball in the U.S. Most players are in their 20’s. I pitched 3 complete games in the first day(!) of the competition. The first was a perfect game winning 4-0. The second, we won 5-2 both runs were unearned–only 3 hits allowed. The third was 2-0 only 1 infield hit allowed. On the day I struck out 43 in 27 innings. I am 67 years old.
Back when MLB pitchers routinely threw MANY complete games in a season and pitch counts were far higher(!) with 4-pitcher rotations, I don’t recall anywhere near as many severe arm injuries as we see today. I think more work more often is needed to build strength and stamina.
Gonna need some actual data rather than “back in my day” on that one.
You can read Ball Four by Jim Bouton and see that people pitched all the time with bad arms (and instead of going on the DL, they just got lit up with mediocre stuff).
Yeah, that’s why scoring was so much higher in the 60’s and 70’s and everyone was crushing HR with regularity. Hitters were dominating pitchers who were all throwing with dead arms. And there was so much offense that MLB had to lower the mound in 1968 to make the game more fair to the pitchers…..
Complete Game Leaders by year:
https://www.baseball-almanac.com/pitching/picomg4.shtml
Here’s a study of injury trends from 1974-2015:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/298909145_Injury_Trends_in_Major_League_Baseball_Over_18_Seasons_1998-2015
It shows injuries increasing in spite of workloads/expectations decreasing….
Your link is 1998-2015.
Yeah, that’s why scoring was so much higher in the 60’s and 70’s and everyone was crushing HR with regularity. Hitters were dominating pitchers who were all throwing with dead arms.
Go look at Jim Bouton’s stats.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/boutoji01.shtml
See where he falls apart in 1965? Which corresponds to what he said happened in his book? Never pitches more than 150 innings in a season after that?
Now multiply by a lot of other pitchers. Also, they did things like dump or demote pitchers with sore arms. If you’re not stupid, you don’t pitch sore-armed pitchers as much as the new fresh arm you can throw into the meat grinder.
Are you seriously arguing the game conditions when Old Hoss Radbourn was pitching complete games every day in the 1880s are identical to today, and that we could have pitchers pitch that kind of a workload?
If not, what’s the platonic ideal of maximizing pitcher workload while minimizing injury? How do you know it’s the platonic ideal?
Pitching workloads and definitions haven’t been constant over time since, well, ever- it’s clearly changed over time and “MANY complete games in a season and pitch counts were far higher(!) with 4-pitcher rotations” covers a LOT of ground. Are we supposed to go back to the 1930s when Dizzy Dean and Lefty Grove saved games in between starts (Grove has 54 career saves to go along with being a 300 game winner)? The 1880’s? When?
I provided data on complete games only since 1974. The data simply shows that while pitchers are throwing fewer and fewer innings, the number of injuries continue to increase.
What the hell is your fascination with Jim Bouton. That’s ONE player. You can’t make an argument of MLB conditions based upon one player. That is ridiculous. If you’re going to both go back to ancient history OR select a single player to build your case I can do that too!
Over 21 years, Cy Young started 815 games completing 749 of them. He also appeared in relief 91 times. Cy averaged 350 innings per year .
Now that I’ve matched your dishonest counter. Time to move on. My point stands. Fewer innings and more injuries. That is the reality of baseball today.
Has it occurred to you that I’m citing a player that wrote a book about playing (specifically: being a starting pitcher) during the heyday of four man rotations? Are we going to discount him saying players hid injuries, used greenies, did diathermy?
(The Dodgers started 5 man rotations in the 1960’s.)
My point is that in the 1960’s we knew not very much compared to today. Tommy John surgery wasn’t a thing.
Also… so your study has corrected for things like max effort pitching, right? Where fastballs are faster now than 20 years ago? it’s corrected for the fact that rosters now have more pitchers and less position players?
(Note that your study points out less shoulders being injured and more elbows.)
And anyway, sure, cite Cy Young. That’s my point. 110 years ago there was no real relief pitching. Very different era. Every era in baseball is different. But he also pitched when the team leader in HR would be in single digits. Which is why I ask: what is the best way to use pitchers, and how would we know that we’ve arrived, given that data on usage and injuries from even the 70’s would be spotty, and given you probably can’t compare the 1900s to the 2020s?
Like talking to a stone wall. I never mentioned ancient times. You are the one who insisted on comparing to ancient times. I only went back to the 60’s. You however disputed my point by immediately jumping to the 1880’s……I introduced data showing increased injuries at the same time as greatly reduced innings since 1998. The complete games stats went back to 1974. Those stats are supplemental to the states in the 1998 to 2015 study.
Look at the data and then make a determination. You have made your determination and trying to find ways to force unrelated data into your own view. I’m wasting my time with you.
I’ll weigh in here a bit…
Sowulo said: I think more work more often is needed to build strength and stamina.
What if it’s the opposite? Pitchers throw bullpens and have delicately designed programs with pitch counts for specific pitches, some of which are harder on elbows, other on wrists, etc. Every trick to generate more velocity is now known, which inflicts even more violence on body parts. There’s an argument that they’re doing more today–too much more–than in the past.
Preparation was a whole nother ballgame before this modern era. Maybe the workload needs to be reduced and more rest given between throwing days?
Regardless, until Nolan Ryan’s DNA can be injected like a standard vaccine, there are going to be more questions than answers. I just hope MLB teams don’t start scouting 67-year-olds looking for case studies.
Kidding.
No, I haven’t made a determination. You have. I’m saying “given that you’re a random USSM commenter and MLB teams have employees paid a lot of money to figure things out because things like pitcher injuries cost money, why am I supposed to assume you know how to design a pitching regimen for MLB pitchers based on pitching in a tournament in China?”
So great, cite studies. Though you’re eliding the points. More MLB pitchers doing things that get them injured = more injuries. You can remember 5 man bullpens, right?
Anyways, MLB could be wrong! You could be right! It literally took decades for everyone to take Ted Williams seriously about hitting. But there are a lot of questions you are bringing up:
– So we don’t worry about pitch limits any more? Someone’s at 120 pitches in the 7th inning, that’s cool, go ahead? Do we care about pitch limits at all? Do we let someone go 150 if they want?
– So you know MLB pitchers get worse facing guys the deeper they go in games, right?
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=p&lg=MLB&year=1990
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=p&lg=MLB&year=1995
(Go look at what happens for 3rd PA)
So you’re fine trading that off if you can prove a usage pattern that forces starters to start 40 games and go deeper into games injures players less, right?
– So 4 man rotation means we’re letting guys pitch 300+ innings a season again?
– If we lose some average fastball velocity (down to the low 90s, perhaps even high 80s), are we fine with that?
– How does that usage pattern work with bullpen work? Are we good with relief aces doing 70 game 120 inning seasons? (This was a thing back in the 1960’s too.)