Game 95, Mariners at Rockies – Improving the Offense
Marco Gonzales vs. German Marquez, 5:40pm
The M’s strong run has them 6 games above .500, blowing their pre-season projections out of the water. Sure, their playoff odds have moved from “negligible” to “still below 5%” but they’re driven by those same projections. The problem here is that either by BaseRuns or pythagorean runs, the M’s really aren’t that great: their record using both systems (essentially stripping out sequencing and “clutch” stats) comes out at 42-52, a far cry from their actual 50-44 record. The bullpen’s been great, and they’ve been the clutchiest team in the game, but what accounts for this massive disparity?
The thing every projection, every system using run differential (which is all pythagorean runs are) is keying on is this: the M’s can’t hit very well. Before the year, they were projected to score very few runs, a product not only of an underwhelming/developing line-up, but also a park that supresses run scoring. They had a fair-to-middling projected number of runs allowed, but the problem was that they couldn’t take advantage of being average in one area if they were pretty bad in another. But that’s just what was *projected.* What’s ACTUALLY happened?
The projections….nailed it. The M’s are giving up 4.67 runs per game, which is a more than average, but it’s not a massive problem. What perhaps no one but the M’s pitching coaches and Jerry Dipoto saw coming was an elite bullpen that survived a faceplant from Rule 5 pick Will Vest and vaunted closer Rafael Montero to become the key element allowing the M’s to win close games and make a mockery of their run differential. That they’ve done all of this despite a swath of injuries torpedoing their opening day rotation is nothing less than amazing. How about the runs scored part? They’re scoring 4.1 runs per game, which is a bit more than you’d assume, just looking at their actual number of hits, walks, and homers. But here, the projections have been more or less right on. They were projected to score right around 4 runs per game, and to give up more than that. That’s exactly what they’ve done.
Even for some of the players, and even for players who are not hitting anything like their projected line, some of the projections are eerily accurate. Jarred Kelenic was projected by ZiPS for a 29.7 K% and a 7.6% BB rate. So far this year, he’s at 30.5% and 7.6%, respectively. Literally everything else about that projection hasn’t come to fruition; his OPS is nowhere near the mid-700s, and I think mid-20s in HRs is probably not in the cards for 2021, but it nailed the K/BB stuff. The same is largely true for Taylor Trammell, though not to the same degree.
The problem here isn’t just that the M’s have a high K rate. That might be expected due to the fact that they’re running out a very young line-up. The problem is what happens when they actually make contact. The M’s BABIP is the lowest in the game in part because they have the highest rate of infield fly balls. These are essentially always outs, so of course your BABIP will suffer if you hit them. The M’s, and the league, are hitting fewer grounders, but getting less out of them in part because the club doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard.
The New York Times has an article today about how the crackdown on sticky stuff has impacted strikeouts (down) and walks (up), leading to an increase in OBP. It will be interesting to see if the M’s can improve their BABIP and OBP given these changes. I don’t think it’s mattered a whole lot for the M’s staff, save perhaps Yusei Kikuchi, whose July swoon began a bit after the crackdown. Guys like Logan Gilbert, Chris Flexen, Kendall Graveman, etc. never had high spin rates, and don’t seem to have changed materially since June.
All of that has made it harder to identify exactly what changed with Gilbert, who was, again, lights out in the M’s last game. His fastball is about as hard as it was when he first came up, and he’s still prone to hard contact. His whiff rate remains so-so, but his command has improved markedly, leading to more strikeouts and fewer baserunners. There’s nothing really in the data that helps define what “rookie jitters” or “nerves” actually *does* to a pitcher. They don’t throw slower, they don’t change their release point, and for Gilbert, it’s not like he started out by walking tons of hitters. When batters put it in play, they still hit it fairly hard, but there are fewer balls in play, and he’s able to get whiffs when *he* wants to, and not in some 3-1 count. His growth has been unbelievable to watch, and he gives the M’s serious hopes for 2022, and more evidence (along with that bullpen) that the M’s player development group can be successful with pitchers. That’s important given the wave of pitchers they may need to call in in 2022 and 2023, especially if Marco Gonzales and Justus Sheffield remain a bit shaky.
But to really put themselves in contention for division titles in what’s looking like an increasingly open division in the next year or two is serious improvement in their offense. Moving from 4 runs a game to 4.7-5 is really, really hard to do, but starting with one of the younger line-ups around will help. Beyond mere regression in infield fly rate or BABIP, they need to figure out why the likes of Trammell, Kelenic, and potentially Raleigh are struggling in their first go-round in MLB, just as Evan White did. What was different about Kyle Lewis, and how can they turn Kelenic/Trammell around? Answering that will have as much to say about the M’s playoff odds next year as any free agent they may acquire.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: France, 1B
5: Raleigh, C
6: Kelenic, CF
7: Moore, 2B
8: Long, LF
9/SP: Gonzales
Tacoma destroyed Salt Lake last night 12-2 behind HRs from Kennie Taylor, Brian O’Keefe, Justin Hager, Jantzen Witte, and Jose Marmolejos. Logan Verrett was solid and got the win. Mike Curto discusses Taylor here; he was picked up early in the year (along with seemingly half of the team) from the Mets org, then was kind of without a team for a while, and was brought back a few days ago. The life of a minor leaguer; jeesh. Speaking of which, former Rainier and Mariner Ryan Weber was just picked up off of waivers from Milwakuee. He’ll start for Tacoma tonight.
Arkansas begins a series against Wichita at home at Dickey-Stephens park.
Everett travels to Hillsboro to take on the Vancouver Canadian-Oregonians.
Modesto heads to Fresno’s Chukchansi park to play the Grizzlies.
Game 92, Mariners at Angels: The Second Half Begins
Chris Flexen vs. Andrew Heaney, 6:38pm (?)
The second half begins today, and the M’s are on the outskirts of a playoff race. Shannon Drayer lays it all out here, but the M’s are in an odd position vis a vis the trade deadline. Their position in the standings would argue for adding MLB talent this month, whereas the longer term goals and their stated process might argue for trading vets for younger talent, even if that talent wasn’t quite ready to shine this season. The team obviously believes that they’re good, and doesn’t want to hear about run differential. But for any acquisition to make a difference, the M’s young players need to step up. That begins tonight, as Jarred Kelenic rejoins the team.
Cal Raleigh’s up, taking Taylor Trammell’s roster spot. Kyle Lewis may rejoin the team in late August, though Evan White is completely done for the year (he’s having his hip surgically repaired). Kelenic and Trammell’s struggles haven’t doomed the M’s chances, but combined with Evan White’s struggles, the M’s have had some issues transitioning position player prospects to the majors. It’s why their offense ranks 28th in MLB, and still claims the lowest team batting average. If they get someone to play 2B or the OF, they’ll still need to figure this problem out, especially with Cal Raleigh now with the team. None of this means their prospects aren’t going to hit eventually, but if they want to make a run, they need contributions and not growing pains.
Logan Gilbert’s emergence, Yusei Kikuchi’s improvements, and the pick-up of Chris Flexen have given the M’s a rotation that can be a real strength, even despite the wave of injuries that have claimed so many of the pitchers the M’s started the season with. This and the emergence of bullpen aces like Kendall Graveman and Paul Sewald are testaments to the player development group, which makes the issues with young hitters all the tougher to figure out.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: France, 1B
4: Seager, 3B
5: Torrens, DH
6: Raleigh, C
7: Kelenic, CF
8: Moore, 2B
9: Long, LF
SP: Flexen
Edited to note a line-up change, as Shed Long, Jr. replaces Jake Fraley in LF. Always interesting in this part of the season when you see a late line-up change…
The M’s DFA’d Rule 5 reliever Will Vest. It’s too bad, though Vest’s performance certainly made it hard for the M’s to keep him around. In general, he just never quite seemed like the guy we heard about when he was acquired. His vaunted velo gains didn’t seem to come with him to Seattle, and the M’s couldn’t coax bat-missing stuff out of his slider. With strikeouts up, it’s just tough to be a righty reliever with a K rate under 20%. It’s impossible if, in addition to that K%, you’ve got a BB% over 10%.
The M’s draft was high on high school players in the first few rounds, but they filled it out with plenty of college players. After taking preps with their first 3 picks, they grabbed college players in all the remaining rounds, and only one of those, final pick Troy Taylor, was a JuCo pick. Some of that – and especially the seniors – may help them afford higher bonus demands with early picks, but some of that reflects the need to fill out their rosters. The M’s have been ridiculously active on the waiver wire and signing players out of independent leagues. Every org needs to do that from time to time, but I certainly hope the M’s can give more PAs/innings to drafted players in the coming years, even despite a draft that’s smaller than it used to be.
2021 Draft Post
Round 1: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb HS (GA)
The M’s eschewed the expert consensus over who they’d pick (mostly UCLA SS Matt McClain, and, failing that, one of the top college pitchers) as well as their own history, going for HS C Harry Ford of North Cobb HS in Georgia. The freakishly-athletic Ford has a big bat, but also drew raves for his speed, leading some to think he could play in the OF down the road.
The M’s have been very consistent at the top of the draft, especially under Jerry Dipoto. They’ve taken a college player every year, from Kyle Lewis, then Evan White, and then the run of college pitchers with Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Emerson Hancock. Picking at #12, they weren’t going to have the ability to grab an absolutely elite, top-of-the-scale, in-the-running-at-1:1 prep product. That’s what makes this pick so interesting; how did they get enough information after two Covid-impacted high school seasons to feel comfortable taking Ford here? As we talked about with Chris Crawford yesterday, I think the scouting combine probably helped a number of teams understand what players did well and what they need to work on.
But Ford didn’t attend MLB’s Draft Combine, so the M’s were evidently convinced by their scouts that they had seen enough to know that Ford was a special athlete, and getting down to the third significant digit in his 40-yard dash time wasn’t going to meaningfully move the needle on him. The draft didn’t quite go according to plan, with Kumar Rocker dropping to 10th, and with teams grabbing players hoping for underslot deals just ahead of where the M’s picked. But this doesn’t feel like an underslot play; Ford’s a huge talent, and the M’s apparently got their man. The slot value of this pick is $4.37 million, for those keeping an eye on the bonus pool total.
Even with the Angels, Dipoto’s focused on College players. I think Dipoto’s Angels didn’t draft a first-round HS player, though, to be fair, they surrendered their first rounder for signing free agents like Albert Pujols, and they were comfortable enough to grab, say, Jahmai Jones, *near* the top of the process. Because of all of this, I’m legitimately surprised the M’s went for Ford, but I’m excited to see them break out of what seemed to be a hardened orthodoxy around College talent. Welcome, Harry Ford!
Round 2: Edwin Arroyo, SS, Arecibo Baseball Academy (PR)
Staying in the prep ranks, the M’s take Puerto Rican shortstop, Edwin Arroyo. The M’s have found talent in PR and in the early rounds before (Edwin Diaz!), so this is less of a departure, but Arroyo – unlike Ford – did attend the MLB Draft Combine in North Carolina, so if M’s scouts had less of an opportunity to scout him due to the pandemic, they probably appreciated the ability to see him play games against high-level competition as well as to get some metrics on arm speed/bat speed, etc.
Arroyo’s a switch-hitter, and currently stands at 6’0″ and 170 lbs. I’ve seen him seen as the top prospect out of Puerto Rico this year, continuing PR’s resurgence as a hotbed of baseball talent after a fallow period that ended when Francisco Lindor went #8 in 2011. He’s committed to Florida State, but his slot value is a bit over $1.5 million, making it pretty likely he’ll sign with Seattle.
A personal fave of mine, SS Edwin Arroyo can pick it, throw it, and swing it from both sides of the plate. A very good pick by the #Mariners
Round 3: Michael Morales, RHP, East Pennsboro HS (PA)
Michael Morales is a righty starter out of a Pennsylvania HS that MLB ranked as the #109 prospect coming into the draft. A Vanderbilt commit, Morales throws a low-90s fastball that can touch the mid-90s, a big curve, and a good change that may one day be his best pitch.
There may be some signability questions, as Morales was seen as a back-of-the-first-round or potential Competitive Balance pick, and slid to the 3rd round. These are the kinds of players that Vanderbilt has been pretty successful at convincing to go to college and improve their stock. The slot value here is $733,000, whereas the 2nd-round pick value is double that. The M’s track record on developing pitching may help Dipoto and Co. convince Morales to sign, and it’s also possible that the M’s could save a bit on their first two (or next) picks and redirect some of that to this pick, similar to the way they saved a bit on Evan White in order to convince Sam Carlson to sign back in 2017.
Round 4: Bryce Miller, SP, Texas A&M
Ladies and Gentlemen, a College pitcher! Bryce Miller was a top-100 draft prospect per MLB, Miller’s a senior who’d been a reliever for two years after transferring in from a Texas JC. This year, he made 10 starts, and struck out 70 in 56 2/3 IP. The righty has good stuff, but has struggled with control, and that problem didn’t resolve when he stretched out as a starter. He walked over 5 per 9 this season for the Aggies, and also plunked 13 batters.
Like many players, his season was impacted by the pandemic, as contact tracing forced him to miss a couple of key SEC series. He played in the Cape Cod league in 2019, albeit for less than 10 IP, but between the Cape and A&M (where the M’s were scouting Zach DeLoach last year), the M’s have obviously seen him a fair amount. And more than most players, I imagine he’s a guy with really polarizing reports. He’s got mid-90s velocity, and a curve and slider that can both look intriguing. He tossed 7 scoreless in a non-league game, striking out 15 with no walks this year, and then a game against Alabama in which he went only 2 1/3, striking out 2, walking 2, and plunking *4*, leading to 4 runs allowed. This is a scouting call, and again, it might help that the M’s have done well with pitchers somewhat similar to Miller, including Brandon Williamson.
Round 5: Andy Thomas, C, Baylor University
Andy Thomas is a 5th-year senior at Baylor, a kid who took advantage of the NCAA offering players an extra year of eligibility after last year’s season was mostly wiped out by the pandemic. The California native had a great freshman season back in 2017, and was a finalist for the Buster Posey award for the top collegiate catcher this year. He started 2020 in a slump, so his numbers looked off that year, and seems to have made a great decision to take advantage of that fifth year of eligibility.
He hit .337/.411/.575, and more than doubled his career high in HRs with 11. His BB% was around 11% with a K% of around 13%; over his college career, he walked more than he struck out. I’d imagine that the M’s are looking to save a bit of money with this pick; the slot value is $379,000. More importantly, with Cal Raleigh now in Seattle, and with Harry Ford a long ways off, this team really needs depth at C in the minors. They’ve been filling it through minor league free agents and minor league Rule 5 picks, so this selection helps them re-stock their affiliates with a player with high-level collegiate experience.
More as the draft rolls on, but taking a break for the afternoon.
The *10th Annual* MLB Draft Preview with Chris Crawford
MLB’s amateur draft has been thoroughly rearranged/rebooted/moved around this year, partly due to the pandemic, and partly due to the same manic energy that leads to all sorts of new, limited edition hats that everyone hates. 15 years ago, the draft was still a low-tech affair, conducted by telephone with no TV coverage at all. That changed in 2011, as MLB Network decided to show the first round, and got some Jersey kid named Mike Trout to show up in-studio. Since then, interest in the draft has skyrocketed, and thus, this year, the first round (and competitive balance picks) will be on ESPN today at 4pm. The draft will continue on Monday and Tuesday, with coverage back on MLB Network.
The draft is only 20 rounds this year; up from the pandemic-shortened 5 rounds last year, but still half of what it was before Covid. There are, after all, fewer roster spots to fill after MLB’s restructuring of the minors axed several teams and entire leagues from the affiliated-ball ladder. In addition to having ESPN televise the first round, they’ve moved the draft physically for the first time: it’ll be in Denver, on All-Star Weekend. Many seem miffed that it could essentially compete with the Futures game, as just about anyone motivated enough to watch the draft probably also wants to watch the best prospects play each other. But you can kind of see what MLB is thinking: you’ve got a day to revel in the future of the game and get everyone interested in the stars of 2025 or so.
The draft has seen pretty remarkable changes since I’ve been doing this; the bonus pools that essentially limit what teams can spend were brand new when we started this series, and they may change again in the next CBA, due to be negotiated this year/next year. With so much in flux, it’s nice to fall back to tradition, and a familiar expert to help make sense of all this. So for the *10th year* in a row, I’ve talked with NBC Sports’ Chris Crawford. Chris is a local guy, and you can hear his segments (with fellow friend-of-the-blog Nathan Bishop) on the Ian Furness show every Monday on 950 am KJR. He does some great videos for NBC Sports Edge, like this one on JP Crawford (no relation), and a great podcast called Circling the Bases with other NBC baseball writers (DJ Short, Drew Silva). In the first post of this series, we talked about the M’s looking at Florida catcher Mike Zunino, and not only did the Mariners pick him, but he’s brought everything full circle by making his first All Star team. In that post, Chris waxed poetic about Byron Buxton, who looked set to dominate baseball this year before injuries sidelined him. All of that to say, Chris knows his stuff, and I look forward to this post every year.
1: Last year’s 5-round mini-draft should produce a really deep class for 2021. Has that happened? Is this one of the deepest classes in recent years?
It is not. Now, it’s not the shallowest class, either, but this is not a great class. It looked it was going to be on paper, but some bats — particularly in the college class — didn’t hit, and some pitchers got hurt and/or didn’t perform well. I would say this is an average class, but the added redshirt juniors/seniors/redshirt seniors really didn’t help as much as you might think.
2: Beyond the players themselves, the league has made some sweeping changes to how teams find amateur talent. 150 players attended the North Carolina scouting combine, with games, strength testing, workouts, etc. Essentially a lot of the things teams would do when holding in-person workouts in prior years have now been kind of centralized, allowing teams to get a look at more players, particularly at the top of the draft. What does this do for teams? What does it do to scouting and the need to have a lot of eyes on players all across the country?
I think adding extra looks was big. Look, there’s a lot of development that happens with these kids at that age, and in 2020, scouts just didn’t get as much of a chance to see these players. The workout stuff is nice as well, but really just getting an extra look after the pandemic (not to say we’re still not in a pandemic) is big. Ultimately I think the games they play against their competition is more important? But the more looks the better.
3: In addition to all of that, the top ~100 or so high schoolers will play in the Prospect Development Pipeline (PDP) league through July and August. What do you think MLB wants out of this set-up, and are there any potential unforeseen consequences?
I think again it’s just another way to get looks. Prep prospects are the most volatile prospects and it’s not close. That’s obvious. So getting a chance to see these guys play against each other rather than inferior competition is nice. It’s just taking a little bit of the risk off the top.
4: The other big change this year was the sweeping changes to the minor leagues. There are now fewer leagues, with the lower levels cut back pretty dramatically (Pioneer/Appy leagues). How does this change a team’s draft strategy? Or does it?
I think so, yes. You’ll still see lots of young players drafted and signed — everyone is young if they’re draft eligible, you know what I mean — and they’ll get more “hands on” instruction in the ACL or FCL. But teams will certainly need to draft less for “organizational depth” I think, because you don’t need to fill as many rosters.
5: Ok, ok, let’s talk about the Mariners. The M’s have about $8.5M to spend in this year’s draft, starting with pick #12 (valued at around 4.4 M). Who do you think they take, and who are some of the best picks around #10-15?
Goes without saying, but a college player. Difference this year is it seems like there’s an emphasis — for lack of a better word — on adding a college bat. I think the name that makes the most sense is Matt McLain, a shortstop out of UCLA. He fills a bit of an organizational need, and he is probably the best college bat on the board. That being said, if Sal Frelick of Boston College — a diminutive but talented outfielder — is there, then I think he’s the selection. Just not sure if he falls to 12 at this point. Colton Cowser is kinda in between Frelick and McLain, and he’s an outfielder who could hit for average and power at the highest level and is by no means slow. If an arm like Ty Madden of Texas or somehow one of the two Vandy boys (Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker) fell then yeah, I think they’d swoop. But I’d bet on McClain, Frelick or Cowser being the pick at this point.
6: The M’s have focused on college pitching. We talk about this every year, it seems. They’ve been successful at this; their development group has done extremely well with those high-pick arms, and we’re now seeing Logan Gilbert in the majors. Do you stick with what works – with what your own PD group has been good at – or do you draft for need? The M’s need infielders.
I think sticking with what works here is fine; the Mariners have done a good job of identifying college arms and also understand that they offer less risk. I also think it’s been a case where bats just haven’t made since where they picked, but Dipoto’s history tells you that prep players just aren’t going to get drafted high. You just have to go with best player available in my opinion. if there’s a “tiebreaker” than taking the one who offers less volatility makes sense. But unfortunately this year is an awful class of infielders after the big name shortstops — so the two just kinda match. Again.
Just a quick hit this year, given Chris’s busy schedule this week. A reminder that the draft will be on ESPN today at 4pm Pacific, 7pm Eastern. It’ll be back at 1pm Pacific tomorrow for the middle rounds, and it’ll wrap up the day after. Days 2 and 3 can be seen on MLB Network.
So far, most mock drafts have the M’s taking Matt McClain, SS, from UCLA, just as Chris discussed above. Where the two big Vanderbilt pitchers go could really shake things up; Jack Leiter wants to fall to Boston at #4, but no one thinks he will. Meanwhile, Kumar Rocker’s velo inconsistency could see him slide down towards #10, but I’m starting to think that teams are overly harsh on draft-year inconsistency (see Carlos Rodon, Sean Manaea, etc.). Can’t wait to see how it shakes out. And don’t forget the futures game itself! Coverage starts at noon, so you can watch before the draft. The AL’s line up starts with Bobby Witt, Jr., Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez, and then Adley Rutschman. Wow.
Game 90, Angels at Mariners
Chris Flexen vs. Patrick Sandoval, 7:10pm
Last night’s comeback win was one of the most enjoyable of the year. It had one of the most majestic HRs I’ve ever seen, an upper-deck shot from Shohei Ohtani, but also the M’s scoring 7 unanswered to win. Plus, there’s no cooler way to win/take the lead than a grand slam. That’s just science.
Tonight, the M’s face young lefty Patrick Sandoval, a change-up specialist who’s enjoying a breakout year. He’s been able to miss bats in the past, and like several lefty cambio-meisters (Jamie Moyer, for one), he suppresses BABIP. But issues stranding runners and with home runs have made him less effective than his raw stuff would suggest. This year, his change has become a true weapon, and with some good regression in his strand rate, he’s having a solid season.
His four-seam is around 94, and the change comes in 8-10mph off of that, averaging 84-85. He’s not doing a whole lot different than he did last year, but it looks like he’s dropped his arm angle just slightly. Whatever it is, the effectiveness of the change is way, way up.
He also has a slider and rarer curve, but he may be a rare pitcher who has true-talent reverse platoon splits; this may be a better match up for JP Crawford or Kyle Seager than Mitch Haniger.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: France, 1B
5: Torrens, DH
6: Fraley, CF
7: Murphy, C
8: Moore, 2B
9: Long, LF
SP: Flexen
Game 89, Angels at Mariners
Marco Gonzales vs. Alex Cobb, 7:10pm
Logan Gilbert’s absolute gem to help shut out the Yankees yesterday cements his status as the potential ace of the M’s next year. That’s good and bad, of course. Marco Gonzales’ poor year makes next year’s rotation a bit more of an unknown, particularly now that Justus Sheffield is on the IL and won’t throw for a while. Gonzales, Sheffield, Justin Dunn and James Paxton have all been on the IL; that’s 4 out of 6. And the two arms lined up as depth, Nick Margevicius and Ljay Newsome, are themselves both hurt.
But Gilbert’s emergence doesn’t just give them a warm body, an as-yet-unhurt innings-water. As we saw, he can be a shut-down pitcher whose fastball plays way up thanks to elite extension. His change has come on faster than I, for one, thought it would, and that’s helped him avoid platoon problems.
But the M’s have an interesting dilemma if/when Sheff comes back. Their record has them in the wild card hunt, and they can stretch the gap between themselves and Anaheim in this series. If they’re in a race, however weird that is given their offensive woes and attendant run differential issues, they may not be able to let Sheffield (and potentially Gonzales) figure things out. But letting Sheffield work on things is clearly the best plan for *next* year. I’ve been saying that this year counts too, and they need to actually try to win, but giving up on Sheffield seems like a bad outcome not only because the team hyped him up last year, but because they need innings in a go-for-it scenario, and they may need to fix offensive holes first.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, DH
3: Seager, 3B
4: France, 1B
5: Fraley, CF
6: Torrens, C
7: Long, LF
8: Moore, 2B
9: Bauers, RF
SP: Gonzales
The PTBNL in the Jake Bauers deal was revealed today: local overslot pitching prospect Damon Casetta-Stubbs. The Clark County hurler had a real up and down first few years as a pro, but shows flashes of serious bat-missing ability. Now 21, I suppose I get the M’s making him available, particularly given his troubling walk rates, but it still feels like a bit of a high price for a DFA. For Casetta-Stubbs, he’s going to a club with a great record of pitching development.
Game 86, Yankees at Mariners
Justus Sheffield vs. Jameson Taillon, 7:10pm
The Yankees come to town in turmoil. Another late-inning collapse by the previously untouchable Aroldis Chapman pushed them to 42-41 and 4th place in the AL East. They’re 10.5 games behind Boston and 6 back of Tampa. Their offense – a murderer’s row on paper – ranks 20th in fWAR, just ahead of the M’s in 25th. Despite a pitching staff that ranks 3rd by FIP-based WAR, their ERA ranks 11th. They’ve underperformed their base runs and seem like the anti-Mariners in just about every way: bad in the clutch despite immense talent at essentially every position.
Tonight’s starter was supposed to be their Gerrit Cole clone: another former Pirates prospect who’d been sporadically successful/healthy but who possessed undeniably great raw stuff. And it’s partially working, as Taillon’s K rate is nearing 25%, the highest of his short career. He’s throwing his mid-90s fastball up in the zone and generating plenty of swings and misses, but his ERA has spiked to well over 5 in New York.
The culprit’s been home runs. As Taillon’s searched for extra whiffs on his Sewald-style low-efficiency/cut-four-seam, he’s pushed his ground ball rate to below 33%, a far cry from the mid-40s he ran in Pittsburgh. But unlike Cole who had more velocity *and* extra-sticky goop to maximize his spin and movement, Taillon’s sinking four-seamer has been hit for seven dingers in the early going.
Worse, his secondary pitches have all backed up a bit. He’s got a change in the high-80s that looks great, but that batters are destroying this year. He has a slider at 87 and a curve at 81, and he’s able to throw all of them from a pretty consistent point. It just…hasn’t mattered. Lefties have had some trouble with Taillon’s fastball, but are absolutely crushing any non-heaters they come across, while righties are holding the secondaries to a draw, but are doing better against the fastball.
Justus Sheffield’s had an up-and-down season, and tonight’s task is a tough one despite his home park’s offense-suppressing ways and the Yankees’ struggles. One of the reasons fans have latched on to as a way to explain the Yankees’ struggles is that their line-up is overly right-handed. They do have slightly better stats against lefties, but their platoon splits aren’t that wide. The problem is that Sheffield’s got platoon splits too, and he’s really struggled against righties this year. His slider continues to be an effective pitch against RHBs and LHBs, but the change and sinker have taken a step back this year.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: France, 1B
5: Fraley, CF
6: Torrens, C
7: Bauers, DH
8: Moore, 2B
9: Long, 2B
SP: Sheffield
Tacoma (28-23, 2nd in their division) beat up on Reno 15-7 at Cheney last night despite being out-hit. Jose Marmolejos, Jose Godoy, and Jantzen Witte all homered. Marmolejos’ slash line in AAA is now .349/.452/.679. David Huff gets the start for Tacoma tonight in the AAA-West’s getaway day.
Arkansas (27-26, 4th in their division) hosts Frisco (#1 in the AA-Central) tonight behind Alejandro Requena.
Everett (34-18, #1 in High-A West) travels down to Eugene to face the Emeralds. Juan Then starts for the Frogs. It’s been a somewhat disappointing start thus far for Then, who’s posted 32Ks in 34 innings, giving up 22 runs on 33 hits and 15 walks. That all works out to a 5.56 ERA.
Modesto (32-22, 3rd in their division) hosts the Stockton Ports tonight. Modesto’s won 8 in a row.
Why Can’t Anyone Hit Paul Sewald?
Sorry for the week off; I’m back from a road trip in Oregon. No, I wasn’t felled by the heat wave, though hanging in Portland last Sunday was an experience I can only describe as surreal. I just took a week off to hang in Central Oregon and jump into whatever stream or river presented itself. Some parts of this were in non-WiFi/cell service range, and while I could’ve/should’ve posted something in those areas that DID, I have to admit, it was kind of nice to shut all of it out. And hey, the M’s continue to play well, so that was something of a nice surprise to return to.
But enough about that. We need to talk about Paul Sewald. No, this is not a post I ever thought I’d write, but the 2021 NRI/minor league signing has quickly become one of the team’s best bullpen arms – the best, per Fangraphs, in fact. The M’s (like all teams) have seen something like this before, where an unheralded NRI gets great BABIP luck or strands a ton of runners, and it’s awesome to watch before regression spoils the party (Roy Corcoran is the classic M’s example). But at least thus far, that’s not been what’s driving Sewald’s results at all. He’s essentially doing it all himself, with a K/9 approaching *16*. He is bullying opposing hitters with one of the most untouchable – and strangest – pitches in the game: a 92 mph fastball.
There really isn’t anything that jumps out at you when you look at Sewald’s best pitch. By pitch type values, it’s the 5th best heater in the game on a rate basis, just behind Kendall Graveman, and somehow ahead of Jacob deGrom’s. It’s not thrown with elite velocity, and while Sewald generates above-average spin with it, he’s below average in spin efficiency, leaving him without elite movement. It’s thrown at an odd angle, as the side-arming Sewald releases the ball at around 4 and a half feet off the ground, quite a ways away from a more normal 3/4 delivery that’d come out at around 6 feet off the ground. But even there, side-arming FB/SL relievers are hardly rare, and it’s not a freakishly low release like Tyler Rogers has. It’s different, but not necessarily better.
Does he rely on pinpoint command? No, the guy sporting a BB% near 12% does not boast freakish control, and that doesn’t seem likely to change. Is Sewald’s Fastball relying on surprise? That is, is his slider the real weapon that batters need to be aware of, so they’ll take the odd fastball even when it’s over the plate? MLB’s swing/take stats show he’s done well in the heart of the plate, but that includes swings as well, and in any event, his slider’s been below-average this year. Sure, he’d upped his usage of it in the early part of this season, but over the course of the year, he’s going to the fastball more and more.
Sewald’s fastball has essentially average vertical break and a bit more horizontal run than average. That said, if anything, it’s slightly less than you might guess given that sidewinding motion. His slider has above-average spin efficiency, and mirrors his fastball’s spin pretty well, a point made in this great article by Michael Ajeto over at LL recently. With his arm angle, you’d expect lower vertical rise and more armside run, and you might expect even more now that Sewald’s lowered his arm angle this season from about 4.7′ to 4.5′.
But these skills and changes seem pretty middling given the sheer dominance that we’re witnessing here. Flattening his arm angle would be great if he was using that armside run and sink to send his ground ball rate through the roof. But no, the sidearming Sewald has a GB% below 27%. How does that happen? Because Sewald throws his fastball up in the zone.
That helps explain the GB% and we’ve known for a while that you can fractionally increase whiffs by throwing heaters up, but I don’t think it’s quite enough to explain how an NRI can pitch like early-career Aroldis Chapman for a few months. Deception is undoubtedly playing a pretty big role here, and that’s harder to measure, but I think the best way to explain this is to look for a comp: is there anyone else out there striking out a ton of batters with an underpowered fastball thrown high in the zone? Especially one that’s got low spin efficiency and thus without tons and tons of vertical movement?
Yes, there is. It’s a pitch I’ve been talking about all year, going back to spring training. This is Freddy Peralta’s MO. Peralta releases the ball just over 5′ off the ground, throws 93 with above-average spin, and has a velocity-adjusted-spin rate of around 25.5-26. Sewald’s a tick above 26, but they’re right there. When he came up, Peralta threw 75-80% fastballs, but he’s having his best season in 2021 despite reducing his fastball usage to around 50-55%. Peralta’s spin efficiency is 83.3, Sewald’s at 83.6 (ranking them 273rd and 281st in MLB).
I’d initially compared Peralta’s heater to his teammate, Josh Hader’s. But while there are some similarities, they’re really quite different. Hader has plus velocity, for one thing, and ranks #1 in spin efficiency, with 100% active spin. Still, the thing that jumps out at you is that both are able to throw them to batters who 1) know the pitch is coming and 2) know the general area that pitch will target.
It’s kind of wild to think of how many traditional nostrums of pitching these fastballs violate. You want a high-spin pitcher to improve their efficiency to generate more movement – but Peralta and Sewald don’t, and don’t have any reason to at this point. You want a pitch thrown with sidespin or from a low angle to sink and target the knees or a bit below – but Peralta and Sewald have made their mark by staying up. Everyone knows a low arm-angle pitcher, especially with a FB/SL repertoire, will face platoon split problems – but Sewald’s been *better* against lefties this year (small sample alert), and while Peralta has regular platoon splits, he’s effective against both lefties and righties.
So we’ve found a similar pitch, but I’m not sure we’ve found why they’re both so effective. I think there’s something confusing about the way the pitch behaves due to the amount of cut both Sewald and Peralta impart. They’re throwing high in the zone with a ball that doesn’t move the way traditional high fastballs do, and their arm angles heighten that sense of confusion. Craig Kimbrel has made a name for himself throwing high, low-efficiency fastballs up, and he may be an honorary member of this small club, but he also has plus to plus-plus velocity, so he gets there somewhat differently. The Pirates’ Richard Rodriguez is another low-grounder, high K (uh, until this year) pitcher relying on a 93mph fastball up in the zone, but he surpasses even Sewald in both spin and efficiency, and seems to have a slightly different approach based on throwing high *and away* fastballs to both lefties and righties, leading to a ton of opposite-field contact. Sewald’s doing similarly, but doesn’t have such a clear pattern by batter handedness. Still, Rodriguez doesn’t have the super-low release point that Peralta and Sewald use.
Ultimately, it’s probably a mix of his slightly higher velocity (something he flashed in 2019), some improved deception, and increased belief in his own fastball. Sewald’s throwing it in the zone more than ever, and thus is getting more swings than ever. The key question is, as always, can this continue? I’m not sure anyone can do *this* consistently, but it’s an approach that’s paying off and doesn’t scream luck. Sure, his 0% HR/FB ratio will change; you can’t get that many fly balls to stay in the park in 2021, especially without great command. But I think he’s a better true-talent strikeout pitcher than any of us ever imagined, probably including Sewald himself. Peralta’s up-and-down last few years (and Kimbrel’s as well) points to the fact that he will probably have some ups and downs, but Sewald seems like a legitimate late-inning arm for the M’s, and he’s been a key reason why they’ve been so good in one-run and extra-inning games.