Game 114, Rangers at Mariners
Logan Gilbert vs. Kolby Allard, 7:10pm
This was supposed to be it. A potentially critical homestand with the M’s within striking distance of the playoffs, buoyed by their incredible bullpen. Despite a big win in the final game in the Bronx it…uh, it’s not going to be that. The M’s stumbled in Texas before righting the ship a bit in Tampa. But losing 3 of 4 in New York as both the A’s and Blue Jays surge means the M’s are in a very different position now. It’s nice to point to the Rangers line-up and say that they can get right back in this, but it’s all slipping away as the Jays and A’s stay hot.
I don’t really want to rehash the trade deadline, nor do I want to pick apart the M’s path back into the wild card hunt. It’s odd; we’re at a point of the season I always thought they’d be. They’ve *still* beaten my expectations, and their playoff chances waned far later than I ever would’ve expected. But I’m kind of surprised at my own reaction – my own hurt – to the past road trip.
The M’s desperately need to get hot at the plate after the Yankees’ replacement starters and bullpen arms held them in check. Luckily, that’s what the Rangers are for. I remember writing up Kolby Allard just after he got to Texas from Atlanta, at a time when the Rangers were having some success with reclamation projects like Lance Lynn and Mike Minor. Allard is…not going to turn out like Lance Lynn. He’s improved markedly this year, but something always holds him back.
In the previous few years, that something was control, as he walked over 13% of batters last year. This year, that rate has plummeted to just over 5%, and he’s maintained his average-ish strikeout rate (I can’t believe average is over 23% now). But getting more of the zone comes at a cost: home runs. He’s always maintained a fairly low BABIP, but he’s hemorrhaging dingers this year, along with hard-hit contact. Allard simply doesn’t get swings and misses, and thus depends on catching batters with called strikes. Spend that much time in the zone with so-so stuff, and yeah, you’ll give up too many homers.
Logan Gilbert throws fewer pitches in the zone, but can get away with it thanks to better velo and a better breaking ball. Allard has no such luck.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: France, 1B
5: Toro, 2B
6: Torrens, DH
7: Kelenic, CF
8: Murphy, C
9: Moore, LF
SP: Gilbert
Comments
13 Responses to “Game 114, Rangers at Mariners”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
That last road trip killed any hope I had for this season, but I was always more concerned Kelenic & Gilbert settling in and what the offseason shopping list would look like after 162. And I still am. I have other concerns (and interests), but top prospects looking the part was always the most curious.
Speaking of Gilbert, it would be good to see him go a little deeper tonight. He has been working harder lately.
I realize that the season is long and that there are always ebbs and flows but it seems as if there has been a direct cause and effect from the moves that resulted in Kendall Graveman being traded away. The players certainly were vocal and the performance of the bullpen in Texas and New York highlighted what for a least the short term has been a negative. Miracles happen but it is a safe bet that the M’s will extend their streak of the not appearing in a playoff well beyond any other US team in any sport. Real shame as there was a glimmer of hope. Hopefully those remaining will get past this and we can get a .500 or so finish in the remaining games and wind up in the mid 80’s with wins. Seriously even if they had made the playoffs this team was not likely to advance as there are still too many holes. Reality is that the whole has outperformed the sum of the parts.
How are people still sore about the Graveman trade. Toro has put up literally 1 entire WAR in just the 50 PA he’s logged as a Mariner. The trades improved the team in 2020 and the future, but all anyone seems to care about is the playoff odds going from 3% to 1%. Get a grip.
By Pythag, this is a team that should be firmly in fourth place and out of playoff contention.
Oh, hello regression to the mean! How’s it been? Wait, there’s no such thing as teamwide skill in clutch hitting?
I can’t really blame Jerry for making a trade that is realistic about how good this team is (actually still not very good). I can blame team management for eternally stepping in it with their players, whether it’s l’affaire Mather or players calling their GM out for doing their trades and not being willing to face their players about it. Yes, I get it, a good move is a good move. Just because we can’t quantify clubhouse chemistry like we can OPS or FIP doesn’t mean you can’t dump a bunch of lye in it.
If the Ms had Graveman and not Toro, they may have won one or two more games to this point…..still not enough to make a difference.
And then they’d be down a Toro next year.
Or they’ll be so grumpy they don’t play well and tank their own careers in the process?
The trades improved the team in 2020 and the future…
That would be a neat trick.
Seriously, let’s hope that chasing pre-arb players with small samples (or no samples) of success aren’t telling of a trend that continues through the coming offseason.
Uh, Toro has about the same sample of minor league “success” as Ty France (their minor league stats aren’t zip codes apart, Toro is a younger player so that actually works to his advantage as a prospect). Not amazing power or average but they’ve handled their leagues OK, not really much more to do in AAA. They’re also similar in that their path to full time play was blocked in their org, so Trader Jerry liberated them for a fairly modest price.
Right now, what’s killing the M’s is an inability to produce actual talent (seriously, Seager is the best player they’ve produced in a decade, and while I like him, eeeuuugh, a decade where you’re producing a 30-40 WAR player and not a lot else).
Thus we see Jerry grab other org’s surplus “ok, this guy is a MLBer but we don’t have anywhere to play him” (France, Toro) because the cupboard is bare here. Seriously, Sam Freakin’ Haggerty played LF in recent memory. Minor league slugging percentage of .368. (Toro’s is about .100 higher… and a younger player too).
I have zero issue with Jerry going after accretive additions of talent for cheap because good Lord, it’s not like WE are at the point where deserving minor league players are actually blocked from MLB Jobs…
Really, eponymous?
Yes, they’re a year or two away, but you can see legit potential at almost every position. (Julio, DeLoach, Trammell Shenton, Marte, Fisk if you squint, Hancock, Kirby, Williamson). This, even though Long, Sheffield, Dunn have not reached our expectations.
Yes, ownership blocked the acquisition of much needed stopgaps last offseason. Yet, calling the cupboard bare seems a bit rough.
Uh, France has a roughly 800 MLB PA sample (550ish with Seattle) and has been pretty consistent since being traded. Toro has 360 and his sample of success can still be measured in the dozens. And that’s not a knock on Toro, he’s likeable. That’s beside the point.
At some point Jerry has to invest in veterans. They can’t wait for every prospect or inexperienced player to debut and figure things out (unless they really are attempting to Beane it), and bringing in more of the same potentially delays things further. That more or less addresses your second paragraph, though I would point out that the players they really need to hit on who have debuted are Gilbert and Kelenic. Kelenic’s looking better and Gilbert is having a solid rookie campaign. Questioning Seattle’s ability to transform prospects into MLBers is fair, but it doesn’t look that bad right now, especially considering what a healthy Lewis and Fraley have contributed this season.
What was the point about Sam Haggerty? He hasn’t played since May and is on the 60. If you’re suggesting Seattle should have added a fielder or two in the offseason, I don’t disagree. Another starter would have been great as well, but that’s another argument (that I think everyone is on the same page with).
You expressed concern the other day about the team having an identity and that being compromised if they ditch Haniger and Seager. I agree. Those are the only two veterans on the field for Seattle, which could affect the learning process of the younger players still settling in, no matter how promising.
They do need to add talent. I’m simply suggesting they have enough young talent on board (and coming soon). They need veteran talent–especially if they move on from Seager or Haniger (or both).
Bookbook, the players Jerry wanted in the offseason weren’t just stopgaps, they were players they legitimately could have contended with while under contract.
By the way, Shenton was traded, Fisk…who is that?
Regardless, that is one spread-out timeline. Waiting for everyone would mean tacking on another 3-4 years to this rebuild.
Can’t do that. It’s not fair to this fan base who have been beyond patient already. Time for them to start honoring their word and making a real effort.
Go look at the team that’s on the field tonight. The actual products of the M’s farm system playing on it are Kyle Seager and Cal Raleigh. Even Kelenic was a “we’re screwing ourselves in 2019/2020 for more wins in 2022” deal. Kyle Lewis is fair except he may be another Michael Saunders who flashes then fades.
I’m not saying that Jerry isn’t doing better, but when the best position player you produced got his MLB debut over a decade ago, this is a problem. The M’s aren’t going to be good until they can actually graduate some players themselves. They aren’t the Astros yet.
France is also 2 years older than Toro is. That is a very big reason why France has more MLB time.
My point is that Jerry is still grabbing guys that are blocked in other orgs and Beaning it because the talent base in the M’s org still isn’t producing players (FTR, Haggerty is a Mets product, mostly, which just shows you), and he isn’t operating with a fully open checkbook (see: 2020/2021). That move is very much a Billy Beane move. Thing is that Billy Beane wins a lot of regular season games with moves like that. Giving Bauers or Marmolejos playing time is similar (though less defensible because there is less evidence they’re deserving of MLB jobs, though at this point you might as well give Marmolejos another cup of coffee).
I know why he’s chasing players like Toro. That’s obvious. But my point about experience stands. I don’t think they can close the gap between them and the postseason quickly without solid veterans.
Keep in mind this team flirting with .500 isn’t doing it because of good, consistent process at the plate. The gap is probably wider than whatever the standings may suggest after 162.