Game 123, Mariners at Astros
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Lance McCullers, Jr., 5:10pm
It’s officially getting interesting. The M’s did what they needed to do by sweeping the hapless Rangers in Arlington. However, the seemingly-invincible A’s and Astros – teams who’ve had a seeming lock on playoff spots since late May – slipped up. The A’s were playing the White Sox, so yeah, that’ll happen. But the Astros were an extra-inning game away from getting swept by the Royals. They’re now 7-9 in August, while the M’s have gone 10-7. The M’s faced the Astros during the infamous/famous? trade of Kendall Graveman, and it looked like the M’s were throwing in the towel. Even then, though, the point wasn’t that the M’s could catch Houston; they were 7 back then. The point was that they were just 1 game behind Oakland.
The M’s are no longer a game out of the Wild Card, but the division has narrowed considerably. The M’s are now 5.5 back of Houston, and 3 behind Oakland. Oakland’s grip on the Wild Card is slipping as New York’s hot streak continues, and as the Blue Jays and Red Sox lurk nearby. Sure, the Sox are in free fall, but often a streak has more to do with your opponents as any kind of self-inflicted or psychological wound. That’s why it was encouraging to read John Trupin’s overview of the M’s remaining schedule at LL. Let’s be clear: having a bunch of games with divisional opponents could go well or not so well, but they have the opportunity to do some damage. Then, they have a softer non-divisional schedule than, say, Oakland.
All that they can control now is slaying the Astros, a team that has lived in their heads now for years. Everyone in both clubhouses knows full well that Houston is better. Their line-up is neck and neck with Toronto’s for the best in baseball, and now that they’ve shipped off glove-first CF Myles Straw, it’s a little scary how few chances for the starter to breathe they present. Worse, this is Houston *at home* where the pitchers can’t rely on T-Mobile’s HR- and BABIP-suppression. They’ll need to do this the hard way.
On the other side of the ball, the Astros have overcome some injuries and have a perfectly average-ish rotation. Their FIP/ERA is better than Seattle’s, but not by a ton. However, there’s a minor problem in the bullpen. That’s clearly the weak link on the team, which was pretty obvious in the M’s unreal comeback against them in July. It’s also why the Astros were so active at the deadline trying to upgrade it, another thing that’s pretty obvious to M’s fans. In addition to getting Kendall Graveman, they’ve added Phil Maton and Yimi Garcia. Their closer, Ryan Pressly, looked to be slowing down last year, but has been brilliant in 2021. The problem was getting to him; the Astros have more “meltdown” appearances by the M’s and about 40 fewer “shutdown” appearances that improve the team’s win probability. They have the offense that allows them to win laughers, so they haven’t NEEDED as many clutch bullpen appearances, but they’ve been pretty poor in those 6-8th innings, something Graveman and Garcia are there to rectify.
In addition to the new faces, they’re also relying on Cristian Javier, last year’s breakout rookie starter, in the pen; Javier got the save the other day in Kansas City. It’s an interesting move, and one they kind of previewed in the playoffs last year.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: France, 1B
5: Toro, 2B
6: Fraley, LF
7: Torrens, DH
8: Kelenic, CF
9: Raleigh, C
SP: Kikuchi
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7 Responses to “Game 123, Mariners at Astros”
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I’ll miss most of this game for dinner & drinks.. Hoping I’ll be ticked about it, but one look at the lineup and I have to wonder how so much inexperience can outperform this opponent.
Did I mention I’ll be drinking?
I wouldn’t say you’re MISSING it, in the Office Space sense…
I’ve probably seen Office Space 10-15 times. That was fitting.
Looking at the box you’d think Houston was stealing signs–and it vwould be fun to accuse them just for fun. But looking at Statcast, man was he dishing them a lot of meatballs right in the middle.
It’s hard not to like Kikuchi. I actually advocated for signing him. But he doesn’t seem to adjust or improvise well when he doesn’t have a pitch, or doesn’t have ‘it’.
Given how stingy Seattle has been the last 6 years, it’s really hard to see them committing to a 4/66 contract after a trial period with limited success and several questions remaining.
So, while I’m reminding myself it’s the Astros, I’m remembering how I wondered if Gilbert needed to be shut down for the season before too long following his last start. Innings be damned, he doesn’t look like his batteries are charged.
Bit that’s not my only gripe (while also reminding myself it’s the Astros). I am not enjoying watching Fraley and Kelenic in the same outfield. I’m really not enjoying either one in the outfield right now, though it’s necessary to get them Innings and PAs.
27-4 in two games, huh? Nothing like that to disabuse you of illusions of contention. Granted it’s two games, but man…
I have a hard time believing that they’re going to pull out a checkbook for OFers when some of their best young talent plays OF, and they didn’t pull it out when they didn’t have ANY talent in the OF, but OK. You’d think that Jerry would end up trading one of Haniger, Trammell, Lewis, Kelenic or Rodriguez in that case…
It’ll be fascinating if Kikuchi declines his option, Seager walks, and the M’s go into 2022 with nobody making 8 digit salaries. That’s some next level Billy Beane or Tampa “we aren’t paying anyone anything” there.
I don’t think they’ll spend huge on outfielders, but they don’t have to. Not with long-term term commitments, anyway.
Regardless of what they spend… they’re not going down without a fight, at least.