Game 21, Mariners at Marlins
Robbie Ray vs. Jesus Luzardo, 3:10pm
The M’s have now lost 3 in a row after the Marlins jumped all over rookie Matt Brash in the first two innings. Brash has given up a HR or two before, and he’s had control problems before, but we really haven’t seen him get hit quite like he was yesterday. It’s also part of a disturbing trend compared to his first two games, and at this point, it’s his debut that looks more like the outlier than any of his subsequent outings. So what’s going on?
I should preface this by stating the obvious: I’m still a huge fan, and I don’t think sending him down is either advisable or in the realm of possibilities right now. What I think is happening is that he’s falling behind and making himself predictable. The home run that Jorge Soler hit (that might not have landed yet) came on a 3-1 fastball that Brash piped down the middle. In the second, Jesus Sanchez’s big two-run single came on another 3-1 pitch, and another fastball. It wasn’t too bad, either – very low in the zone, it got the grounder that Brash was presumably looking for, but it found a hole (it was hit hard, to be fair). Too many walks, too many three ball counts. Brash cannot continue to throw called balls on roughly 40% of his fastballs and sliders. Batters aren’t swinging, and find themselves sitting in hitters’ counts too frequently.
After the Mets/Cardinals series featured so many plunkings, and after that M’s/Royals series featuring a parade of relievers who couldn’t find the zone, I did have to wonder if the ball was part of the problem. Plenty of players this year, from Chris Bassitt to Michael Fulmer, have complained that the new balls and the policing of sticky stuff has led to a less safe environment. Ian Kennedy asserts that there are still two different balls in use, just like 2021. It’s actually hard to find data to suggest that there are more walks or breaking balls flying out of the zone, and HBPs are actually *down* as a percentage of plate appearances from April of 2021. Still, the guys paid to throw the things swear something’s off, and it certainly bears watching.
It’s also a bit…uh, funny that baseball saw 44 total HRs hit last night, after a total of 80 homers were hit from Monday-Thursday combined. Conspiracy theorizing will not generally be a consistent theme on this blog, but again: MLB is not helping its own cause here. They keep getting caught doing the opposite of what they say, and so players and fans are left to wonder.
Jesus Luzardo failed out as an A’s prospect. I thought he was a sure-fire rookie of the year candidate in 2020, but inconsistency left him as merely solid, not the electrifying lefty he looked like in a 2019 cup of coffee. 2021 was far, far worse, and he didn’t look better in AAA after being demoted. The A’s cut bait, and he’s trying to remake himself in what is suddenly an org known for developing pitchers (with former M’s pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre, Jr.). He looked jaw-droppingly good in spring training, but then, so did Kyle Higashioka.
So far, so good for Luzardo. He’s throwing harder than ever now; he’s up two ticks from last season to 97.5mph with his heater, which has some horizontal movement given Luzardo’s low-3/4 arm slot. The pitch he throws most is actually his breaking ball, a gyro-spin curve/slider thingy. Perhaps the most interesting thing about it is that it has no horizontal movement. None. It just skips all of that, despite coming in at 84 and with spin. Most of that spin is gyro spin, hence the lack of movement; it’s essentially a breaking ball thrown like a football. That may be why it’s been successful against lefties and righties – it’s almost like a breaking ball/change hybrid. He still possesses a normal change-up, with plenty of armside run, but he’s not using it as much now that he throws his breaking ball so often.
To be clear, he still has some platoon splits, but he is now a terrible match-up for lefties. This is a day to sit Jarred Kelenic. But he’s not hopeless against righties the way he was in 2021. His fastball, despite the plus velo, is still something righties can do some damage on. His handedness and the angle he’s throwing from *should* make up for at least part of the 98mph-ness of his heater (he actually throws a four-seamer and a sinker). Luzardo’s still not a control/command maven, and his walk rate remains elevated this year. The M’s will need to be patient, get into fastball counts, and do damage in them.
1: Toro, 2B
2: France, 1B
3: Winker, LF
4: Suarez, 3B
5: Crawford, SS
6: Torrens, DH
7: Murphy, C
8: Rodriguez, CF
9: Moore, RF
SP: Ray
Mitch Haniger left the game in the 2nd yesterday with an injury suffered on a swing. I was very worried it was another lat or muscle injury, the kind he’s had too many of. But the M’s are calling it a high ankle sprain which, while not great, is something of a relief.
Good for 33rd round pick Penn Murfee on making his MLB debut last night and getting his first K. I said he was a big leaguer earlier this year; didn’t think he’d make that prediction come true so soon.
The Rainiers lost a heartbreaker in Vegas, 7-6. The Rainiers scored 5 unanswered to take a 6-5 lead in the 9th inning, only for Vegas to win it on a 2-r HR in the bottom of the frame. The R’s hit 4 HRs in the loss.
Wichita beat Arkansas 3-1, and Spokane topped Everett 4-1.
The star of the system last night was Modesto’s SS Edwin Arroyo who hit two HRs as part of a 4-5 night in the Nuts’ 13-1 win over San Jose.
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It’s not surprising to see Seattle’s offense stumble a bit in Florida, but it would be really good to see Frazier’s contact skills and Winker’s power show up for the final game of the series.
So, Frazier went 2-4 with a BB; Winker had 3 hits and drove in 2; Rodriguez had a 3-hit day including his first HR; 5.2 solid innings from Gilbert.
I’ll take it.