Game 115, Mariners at Rangers

marc w · August 13, 2022 at 3:13 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

Marco Gonzales vs. Dane Dunning, 4:10pm

The story of the M’s in 2022 was a simple one: would their improvement in actual talent make up for a decline in the historic, downright bizarre luck from their 2021 campaign? Would they win enough to make it to the postseason without whatever let them post a winning record at home despite hitting .214 as a club there? For several months, the answer seemed to be no, no they wouldn’t despite the best efforts of Julio Rodriguez. Then, it suddenly looked like it might be enough, particularly after bolstering their talent at the deadline.

The first few weeks of the second half offered a third answer, a synthesis of hypothesis (more talent) and antithesis (less luck): why not both? Even without Julio, the team is simply better than last year’s version. But take that new talent level, and add in Carlos Santana’s 2021-like timing and flair for the dramatic? Now you’ve got something. Take that – that luck/talent bouillabaisse, and bring back a healthy Julio? How does that sound? Now stop playing good teams and face Texas? Who’s hungry?

Dane Dunning continues to confound, as he’s a perfectly effective pitcher despite lackluster stuff, and whose K rate continues to fall. Texas pitching staff looked like a weakness coming into the year, and boy has that been borne out. Dunning’s been one of their better/more consistent starters, especially as Martin Perez declines, but he hasn’t been anywhere close to enough.

Dunning has a deep repertoire of sinker, slider, change, and curve. He throws the change plenty, but he’s still posting gigantic platoon splits this season: lefties, get ready to hit. But he’s also got sizable home/road splits, and has been much better at home; it’s another reminder that Texas isn’t a hitter’s paradise anymore, as hard as that is to get used to.

Marco’s still in the rotation despite struggling as much as Flexen did (if not more). He’s still got a good seasonal line, and he’s facing a lesser opponent so let’s hope the M’s can give him a cushion and let him coast.

1: Julioooo, CF
2: France, 1B
3: Haniger, DH
4: Winker, LF
5: Suarez, 3B
6: Frazier, 2B
7: Raleigh, C
8: Crawford, SS
9: Haggerty, RF
SP: Gonzales

The Arkansas Travelers completed their second no-hitter of the year. Prelander Berroa, one of the pop up prospects after being acquired from San Francisco, went the first 5 IP with 11 Ks and two walks.

With yesterday’s win, the M’s passed the slumping Blue Jays to nab the #1 wildcard spot, meaning if the season ended today, we wouldn’t it only get playoff baseball, but playoff baseball *in Seattle.* This has been a remarkable few months; the Orioles hot streak hasn’t ended, and trading their closer and offensive cornerstone hasn’t slowed them down. Cleveland is making its move as well, helped by a White Sox team beset by injuries and ineffectiveness.


9 Responses to “Game 115, Mariners at Rangers”

  1. heyoka on August 13th, 2022 5:27 pm


  2. schwingy on August 14th, 2022 9:40 am

    Did Winker accidentally wear his lead shoes last night? Forget to wake up before coming to the park? Such a weird game. Like they could sleep walk in and expect to win, which worked for 3 innings. They had no business losing that game last night. Should have been up 10-0 end of third and cruised. I hope I don’t see that version of the Ms ever again.

  3. schwingy on August 14th, 2022 2:47 pm

    Two very annoying games : (

  4. MKT on August 15th, 2022 10:30 am

    A sweep was perhaps too much to ask, but to win 2 out of 3 from the Rangers was both do-able and I’d have to think expected by the vast majority of us.

    Oh well, it’s baseball. The other teams gunning for the playoffs have not exactly been red hot either.

    The Blue Jays in particular who a week ago looked like they might run away with the #1 wildcard have very much come back to the pack. On the whole I think the Red Sox are done for the season — but they keep managing to hang around and even their distance from the Blue Jays, which has generally been 6.5 games back in recent weeks, is just 5.5 games back as of today.

    Still, I think FanGraphs continues to overestimate the Red Sox’s probability of making the post-season (17.6% as of right now) especially compared to the Orioles’ (3.6%). To pick just one other playoff probability prognosticator, BP’s Pecota estimates are 16.5% for the Red Sox, so about the same — but 27.4% for the Orioles. 538 narrowly favors the Sox over the Os (16% to 13%) but the others that I look at say that the Os have a better chance of making the playoffs, which seems more plausible.

    All of the prognosticators agree that the Ms have at worst a very good chance of making the playoffs, probably an excellent chance. Hopefully this Rangers series was just one little hiccup on the way. OTOH the Angels have had an annoying habit this season of beating the Ms, 7 out of 12 games so far.

  5. Westside guy on August 17th, 2022 3:24 pm

    I’d like to think that Shohei Otani is looking out from the Angels’ dugout right now and thinking “I really blew it, picking the wrong west coast team when I came to America”…

  6. Westside guy on August 17th, 2022 4:15 pm

    Interesting… this is the YouTube “game of the week” (Wednesday 8/17, Seattle at Anaheim) and it’s letting me watch the game from western Washington state. Just got to see Cal Raleigh’s home run!

  7. Westside guy on August 17th, 2022 4:21 pm

    Argh, I hate hate HATE 9th inning walks when the Mariners have a good lead. Doubly so when someone like Ohtani is on deck.

    And there’s a two-run homer.

  8. Westside guy on August 17th, 2022 4:24 pm

    Whew! Mariners win a pitching duel, 11-7!

  9. Stevemotivateir on August 17th, 2022 4:32 pm

    I’d like to think that Shohei Otani is looking out from the Angels’ dugout right now and thinking “I really blew it, picking the wrong west coast team when I came to America”…

    Right!? Seattle’s a team that’s dialed-in and having fun while winning. Everyone knows their roles and executes them without complaint.

    That has to be attractive to any star, but especially those who haven’t experienced winning.

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