Minor League Wrap (8/29-9/5/11)
I couldn’t think of any special matter to cover in the final intro, especially considering that we only have one squad headed to the playoffs, so I’ll just drop the note that we had three guys named Pitcher of the Week by their respective leagues and then get to it. Some of the write-ups for certain guys this week are rather long, so break it up if you have to. I know I had to take breaks when writing it!
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Gimenez, Jimenez, and Kelley Added
Two of these were the obvious moves once rosters expanded. The addition of Kelley probably does the most for us, and is really the only one I’m all that interested in. You may remember that Kelley was out for a while having a ligament in his elbow re-attached, sort of like TJ except minus the severity and about a year in recovery time. While in Tacoma, he got 14.2 innings in and had a .208 average against with a 15/6 K/BB. That sounds less impressive than it is because five of those walks inexplicably came in one outing. Kelley proving that he’s healthy will go a long way towards shoring up the bullpen for next season. The Mariners lucked out in the early part of the year in that their Franken-bullpen managed to turn in a series of good performances, but as time went on we learned why guys like Wright and Laffey and Ray and Gray were having a hard time holding down major league jobs in the first place. Ideally, Kelley would provide us an actual setup reliever or something resembling one.
We knew that Chris Gimenez was going to come back as soon as he recovered from the oblique injury, and the last couple of weeks, he’s been down in Tacoma batting .265/.357/.347 over forty-nine at-bats. Seeing as how the Mariners are trying to figure out what they have in Robinson and Wells in the outfield, I doubt that Gimenez is much more than our third catcher at the moment. The org had a use for him out of spring training, but since that time it seems like his versatility has become less of a factor. It just makes more sense right now to have Bard around with various recent Rainiers on the staff.
The addition of Jimenez is a head-scratcher for me because it requires a 40-man spot and Jimenez has not recently become good or anything. He’s basically showing the same issues that he’s always had with his splits: he holds right-handers to a decent-ish average at .246, but left-handers are batting .283 off of him. Except, even considering that, he’s had a 56/26 K/BB against right handers, walking more than a batter every two innings, and his 25/9 K/BB against lefties in 25.1 IP, while better, is nothing special. If you think that the Ks are any good, well, he’s done that since 2008 in Tacoma and this year is his worst walk rate yet there. A less desperate club would probably leave him there, and he’s definitely among the first on the cutting block if we need another spot in the offseason.
Edit: The corresponding move to Jimenez getting added as that the M’s released Matt Tuiasosopo. This might shock some because, hey, local kid (Woodinville High School!), but in reality Tui has been defensively limited in the past year or so, spending much of his time at first and in left, with some starts at second after both Ackley and Seager left. The decreased pressure on him on the field hasn’t helped his bat any, and it’s been stagnant for the past couple of years. Maybe he needs a change of scenery. Maybe he’s just not that good. Either way, I couldn’t have come up with a reason to keep him around unless I was really stretching.
’11 Arizona Fall League Rosters Announced
Or at least the Mariners part is, i.e. the only part we care about. Hit it, Twitter.
The four pitchers we’ll be sending are LHP Danny Hultzen, LHP Brian Moran, RHP Forrest Snow, and RHP Steven Hensley. For catcher, we have C Adam Moore, on the infield, SS Nick Franklin, and OF Chih-Hsien Chiang in the outfield. Since someone asked yesterday, that means I got two names right. Thinking about mentioning Chiang accounts for nothing.
Hultzen would figure to be a member of the rotation down there, which would mean about six starts or so. I’d say he’s getting his feet wet, but in Arizona the term isn’t especially applicable. I can’t say he’s getting his uniform dirty either because as a pitcher he’d probably be doing something wrong if that were the case. The broader strokes we’ve already talked about here: Hultzen was regarded as perhaps the most major league-ready talent in the draft, commanding a fastball in the low-to-mid 90s and throwing quality change-ups and sliders in addition to that. While the secondary offerings can be improved a little, the breaking ball notably, there isn’t a lot that is holding him back right now unless you want to talk about arm slot consistency or some such thing. The Mariners said when he signed that Hultzen would be given the opportunity to compete for a job in the starting rotation, and with Fister and Bedard gone, he’d figure to have a legitimate shot. However, if he doesn’t light the world on fire down there (we’ve been spoiled by Ackley in the AFL the past couple of years), it’s not going to hurt his case much. Arizona is a bad place to pitch and it’s only a few games.
Snow would probably be the surprise pick for me though not because he’s not talented. If we pointed out something like “most improved player” after a draft class got its chance to settle in, Snow would be at the top of the list for the 2010 crop, adding velocity and moving rapidly through the system, even pitching so well in spot starts in Tacoma that they allowed him to stick around full-time. No, what surprises me about it is that the past week or so, Snow hasn’t been in the rotation, losing his starting spot to Luke French of all guys. I would view that kind of move broadly as something to be done to limit innings, but now they’re sending him to the AFL and I don’t know what that’s supposed to signal. Do they intend to start him down there, or will it be more relief and bullpen work, trying to refine command and secondary offerings? I guess we’ll know once they get rolling.
I highlighted Moran a couple of weeks ago as a relief prospect that I had been tracking a bit and seemed to have put things together in the second half. Right now, we’re looking at a .195 average since the all-star break compared to a .337 before, a 10.42 K/9 compared to 7.77, and a 2.94 BB/9 to 3.70, and that doesn’t even get into him chopping his HR rate by more than a third. The perplexing thing for me is that left-handers are having a much easier time hitting him and drawing walks when before he was regarded as a left-on-left guy, and because I can’t avoid repeating myself, left-handed relievers who can only get right-handed bats out aren’t so valuable. He didn’t pitch much to start the year, so I’d say this is more about innings than anything.
For Hensley, it’s also about innings, and regaining command, and demonstrating that he’s healthy, and other things that come accompanied by innings. He pitched 28.0 through six starts spanning the first three months. That’s pretty weak. He also had a rough time in July, but his command has started to clean up a bit in August, while still not being at acceptable levels. Hensley’s due to need to be added to the 40-man in the offseason. This might make an impression to the higher ups, but I wouldn’t have him on the short list at this point. Injury history and all, plus any team that would want to take him only has 2009 as the really strong year to go off of with him, and there would seem to be better investments.
I don’t know what to say about Moore that hasn’t been said already. He’s been up the high minors for what feels like forever, wrecked his knee in the early part of the season, and somehow in spite of these realities may be one of the better options we have internally, in the high minors or elsewhere (because, you know, Marder is hurt and Baron still can’t hit). This will be a glorified rehab assignment after the minor league season for a guy who has reportedly been working on the side with the major league club for some time now. Will he hit? Will his knees not explode? Will we have to go another year with a tandem of Miguel Olivo and either Chris Gimenez or Josh Bard? All of these are relevant question for a team that has a history of terrible hitting catchers.
Stamina would be one concern of mine in sending Franklin to the AFL, since he was out with mono for a while after getting a concussion. This seems like a very Mariners thing to have happen to a prospect, but hey, I don’t pay all that much attention to other team’s farm systems and it’s still got nothing on Grant Desme leaving for the priesthood. Franklin opened the season hitting .275/.356/.411 with half his games in High Desert, the same place that saw all the insanity last week that I already addressed and a game back in 2009 in which fifty-one runs scored. We’ve never seen a good prospect not hit in Adelanto, so it was a little disturbing for us, even if his plate discipline was improving greatly. Since rejoining the Generals he’s been hitting .280/.308/.440, which is still lacking somwhat in power and discipline, but not half bad considering. I could see Franklin opening next year in Jackson, but the org has been aggressive with him and other prospects in the recent past and for all I know this is a Rainiers audition.
Chiang is a guy that I sort of anticipated going to the league so I’ll just explain why right now. Chiang has been horrible since arriving in the Southern League. The broad strokes would be that he went from .340/.402/.648 in Portland to .211/.269/.275 in Jackson. The micro stuff is that he went from 54% of his hits going for extras to 27%, a .376 BABIP to a .275 BABIP, 17% of his plate appearances resulting in strikeouts to 21.7% Ks, and roughly 7% walks in his plate apperances to 5.2%. Everything has gotten worse since he got here and I haven’t heard any reasoning yet for why. One would think that if he had the nutritional information to work with and that was what had previously held him back, he’s just adhere to that gameplan and be aces from here out, but something is obviously amiss here. I don’t know what they expect to see out of him, but I hope they figure something out.
Overall, it’s a good crop of mostly interesting players some of whom will be playing nearly every day. If the playoffs aren’t your thing, feel free to partake in one of the other joys of October baseball.
Minor League Wrap (8/22-28/11)
Second to last wrap of the year! The wrap next week will probably come on Wednesday because the regular season schedule won’t end until Monday for the full-seasons. The short-seasons will be cutting out early with Everett ending on Saturday, Pulaski ending on Tuesday, and Peoria ending today. Anyway, this week I have a lot of unusual things from High Desert hitters, a few names that I haven’t brought up before or at the very least often, and a half-blind stab at DSL happenings.
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Minor League Wrap (8/15-21/11)
No intro this week, except you should know that there will only be two more wraps after this and in the next one I’ll probably go over the DSL affiliate, which narrowly made it into the playoffs in spite of some late season incompetence.
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Minor League Wrap (8/8-14/11)
Today is signing deadline day, and we’ll know who’s in and who isn’t at 9 pm PDT. To make some rounds on the latest from each, things with Hultzen are still ongoing, Cron hasn’t talked much with the M’s and has supposedly checked into his dorm at TCU, Chleborad has a pinched ulnar nerve that has kept him from pitching much this summer, and may either result in a lower dollar signing or jumping to college in the hopes of raising his stock, and Null, who was just named a Louisville Slugger All-American, has remained in contact with the M’s since the draft. I’ve found no news on Miller, Smith, Cohoes, Kela, Hawthorne, Brennan, Grifol, or Tresgallo. Marc and I might end up throwing together a podcast when things get finalized.
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Minor League Wrap (8/1-7/11)
Good news, everyone, Moniker Madness is on and the M’s have a couple of representatives this year in perennial underachiever Jetsy Extrano (who will likely inexplicably lose to Kipp Schultz in the first round) and Forrest Snow. Moniker Madness is dumb because the player with the most interesting name almost never wins. The past four winners have been Houston Summers, Will Startup, Dusty Napoleon (okay, that one’s all right), and Rowdy Hardy, who somehow beat out SEQUOYAH STONECIPHER in the quarterfinals. It’s dumb.
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Jay on the Radio, Talking Bedard Deal
It looks like I’m going to be on Portland-area station ESPN 1080 The FAN-KFXX this afternoon around 4:10 pm or so as a guest on Primetime with Isaac Ropp and Jason Scukanec. I’ll be talking about the pieces picked up in the Bedard deal, the general state of the system, and patience and how much of it we should be exercising. Guess what my opinion on that last one is going to be?
Minor League Wrap (7/25-31/11)
The trade deadline has passed with the M’s making an effort to bolster their farm system again. Next up on the schedule, we have the August 15th signing deadline for this year’s draft picks. Jack was on the radio today saying he expected to have Hultzen signed within the next couple of weeks, so here’s hoping they get him and the other top ten guys who are just hanging out right now. After that, we’ll find out who will be our PTBNL from the Fister trade on the 20th. Along the way, some additional international signings may trickle in as well. These are exciting, though exhausting times.
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Bedard, Fields Go in Three-Way Deal, M’s Get OFs Chiang and Robinson
Deals! Just before the deadline, the Mariners pulled off an exchange with the Red Sox and Dodgers that sent LHP Erik Bedard and RHP Josh Fields to the Red Sox and brought in OF Chih-Hsien Chiang from the Sox and OF Trayvon Robinson from the Dodgers. I’ll pass over what the Dodgers are getting, as it doesn’t really interest us, and I’ll leave the commentary on Bedard and Fields limited. I’m sorry to see Bedard go because he was a good pitcher for us this year, loyal, and a rather entertaining figure so long as you weren’t trying to interview him. Fields, I think of subtraction equaling addition at this point. Our first-round pick in 2008, his command has been horrible as a pro and nothing about that has changed this season, to say nothing of the various oblique and other injuries he’s suffered over his career which have meant that he just cracked 100.0 career innings in the past week. Frustrating players are identified as such because they have more potential than they seem to be able to show on a consistent basis, and I don’t really have much reason to think that Fields will shed that label any time soon. So let’s talk about the players we brought in!
Robinson has been a top ten prospect for a couple of years for the Dodgers, though their system has been in poor shape for a little while. He’s one of the rare guys who picked up switch-hitting as a pro and actually managed to stick with it and become proficient. In the PCL this season, he’s hit .293/.375/.563 for the Albuquerque Isotopes with twenty-six home runs (and somehow only nine doubles). There are some issues surrounding this, such as Albuquerque boasting a 153 HR factor for right-handers and a 127 factor for left-handers, but while he’s slugged .585 at home, he’s a good .537 on the road, and about twenty-five points of that are tied up in average alone. Factor in the weirdness of the Pacific Coast League this year as you will, since it’s turned into quite the hitting league this year. What I really like about him, however, is that he pulled a Wlad Balentien by abruptly going from thirty walks a season to sixty to seventy. He still strikes out a lot, but the fact that he’s suddenly capable of drawing a walk makes me hopeful that the power he’s showing is usable. On the field, he’s got good wheels (has been around 40 steals the previous two years, though he only has eight this season) and could easily take over in center field if the need arises. His arm isn’t great, but all things considered, that’s probably his worst tool and center fielders have survived with weak arms. John Sickels also likes him a bit. I’m terrible with player comps, but I could see his best-case scenario being something like a lesser, switch-hitting Mike Cameron. Robinson probably wouldn’t be regarded as an elite prospect, but he’s still very talented and could compete for a spot opening next season.
Chiang is not so hot a prospect, but still interesting on his own merits. He’s a former infielder who was prone to a few too many mental errors and got shifted to the outfield in the 2009 season. The arm has been sufficient enough to get him playing time in right field. The Red Sox had him repeat double-A this year after he hit .260/.312/.420 for Portland last season, and he’s responded by posting a .338/.399/.647 line with a .431 wOBA, with better power numbers in less than three-quarters of the at-bats. He doesn’t walk much, and would probably top out about forty, but he doesn’t strike out much either and wouldn’t be one of the guys we see as risking 100+ Ks a season, probably more like eighty. Chiang is much better against right-handers, with an OPS differential of about .225, though that’s nothing unusual. Since he’s repeating a level and doesn’t get rave reviews for his on-field work, he’s sort of a lower-end, B-level prospect, a few steps below where Robinson is at. Considering we have Peguero and Chavez and others hanging about in the high minors, Chiang may be more interesting for the competition he provides than for anything extraordinary in his toolbox.
All-in-all, I’d say this is a win for the M’s, far better than what was initially coming down the wire, which was some backup catcher coming our way. I wouldn’t say either of these guys is a guy that I’m going to pencil in as the anything of the future, though Robinson has good odds on seeing some time down the road. For what may end up as a rental for the Red Sox (and whatever it is that Fields is), this is a pretty darned good return.